Nintendo's market capitalisation is now over $53 billion.

Nintendo Tops Sony's Market Value as Wii Outsells PS3 (Update1)
By Hiroshi Suzuki

June 25 (Bloomberg) -- Nintendo Co., the world's largest maker of handheld game players, surpassed Sony Corp. in market value as its Wii home console outsells the rival PlayStation 3.

Shares of Nintendo, based in Kyoto, western Japan, rose 1.8 percent to 46,250 yen as of 10:33 a.m. on the Osaka Securities Exchange, valuing the company at 6.55 trillion yen ($53 billion). Sony stock fell 0.8 percent to 6,500 yen, giving the Tokyo-based company a value of 6.51 trillion yen.

Sony, which overtook Nintendo as the world's biggest console maker after PlayStation 2's introduction in 2000, suffered production delays with the release of its latest player. Wii's lower price, simple games and a wand-like controller that players swing like a sword or tennis racquet have helped Nintendo outsell the PlayStation 3 by five to one since the debut in November.

Sony last month sold 81,600 PlayStation 3 units in the U.S., the world's largest video-game market, while Nintendo sold 338,000, according to data compiled by NPD Group Inc. Microsoft Corp. sold 154,900 of its Xbox 360 machines.

Nintendo, also the maker of DS handheld player, may exceed Sony in sales this year. Nintendo posted revenue of 966.5 billion yen in the year ended March 2007, and forecast 1.14 trillion yen this business year.

Sony reported 1.02 trillion yen in sales at the game business in the past fiscal year. The company didn't disclose a sales forecast for the unit. Sony plans to more than double its software lineup to more than 200 titles worldwide and increase the number of downloadable games this fiscal year to boost sales.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aiHxiNtvjQyI

Amazing.
 
Anyone feel that Nintendo is really investing much more in mainstream advertising and marketing than in the recent past.
I was just at a grand opening for a Future Shop near where I live and Nintendo had a tent set up right next to the doors for people to play the Wii. The others were nowhere to be seen expect in their usual spots in side.
I guess this is where some of that extra money is going.
This is great news,but I would to see them take some of that money and make a much greater investment in game development.
 
Yeah, but don't Sony and Nintendo have listings in other exchanges? A quick check shows that Sony has an additional $52.5 billion market cap on the NYSE, whereas Nintendo has only an extra $6.5 billion on NASDAQ. If you add that up, it puts Sony far ahead. After all, Sony is much more than a gaming company.

Then again, maybe I've misunderstood.
 
I believe the entire SONY Corporaton is valued at around $60 billion. Anyway I would like to see Nintendo diversify into other markets like consumer electronics and computers like Apple has. It would be pretty sweet if you could install a computer OS on the Wii with a USB HDD...actually that might not be a good idea since it only has 88MB of RAM.
 
88mb would be more than enough for just a basic OS with lets say a browser, movieplayer, text editor and basic stuff like that. Win98 could run those things fine on a 350Mhz p2 with 32mb ram, so Wii can do that too.
 
They are clearly overvalued, they are at a ~2x multiple on the size of the industry.

This is unsustainable growth for them; the price will correct as the stock shifts towards the organic growth rate.
 
Yeah, but don't Sony and Nintendo have listings in other exchanges? A quick check shows that Sony has an additional $52.5 billion market cap on the NYSE, whereas Nintendo has only an extra $6.5 billion on NASDAQ. If you add that up, it puts Sony far ahead. After all, Sony is much more than a gaming company.

Then again, maybe I've misunderstood.

When you buy SNE (ADR) on the NYSE, you are buying 6758 on the TSE.

The value of an ADR is backed by the underlying value of the foreign company's shares on their home exchange.
 
They are clearly overvalued, they are at a ~2x multiple on the size of the industry.

This is unsustainable growth for them; the price will correct as the stock shifts towards the organic growth rate.

Share valuation of technology company usually reflect growth prospect. Investors apparently think either that Nintendo can grow the gaming market or will go beyond it. The bet, I think, is on the Wii becoming more than just a gaming device. One of the main challenges of introducin technology into the livingroom is the control mechanism. Regular remote controls don't scale well--you end up with too many buttons. Keyboard and mouse don't really work in the settings. The Wii-remote could potentially become the input device of choice for the livingroom, the same way the mouse become an inalienable part of desktop computer. Many possibilities exist for the DS too...
 
Share valuation of technology company usually reflect growth prospect. Investors apparently think either that Nintendo can grow the gaming market or will go beyond it. The bet, I think, is on the Wii becoming more than just a gaming device. One of the main challenges of introducin technology into the livingroom is the control mechanism. Regular remote controls don't scale well--you end up with too many buttons. Keyboard and mouse don't really work in the settings. The Wii-remote could potentially become the input device of choice for the livingroom, the same way the mouse become an inalienable part of desktop computer. Many possibilities exist for the DS too...

Value(utlities, large firms) beats growth(technology & telecoms), this is an empirical fact of the stock market.

Technology companies are grossly over valued, analysts have attached implied growth rates which are highly unsustainable (many times that of GDP is not rational).

Whether you're using implied price from PE, discounted cash flow, capitalised earnings or even real options the growth rates used for technology companies are usually extreme.

Nintendo's current valuation is a case in point. The market is not efficient (efficient market hypothesis)

EMH by Fama 1970: If markets are efficient prices fully and instantly reflect information, competition between traders insures reaction is instant and unbiased i.e. prices reflect true value.

The greatest proponent against the efficient market hypothesis? Warren Buffet who famously said that "if markets were efficient, I'd be a tramp on the street" (paraphrased).
 
V
EMH by Fama 1970: If markets are efficient prices fully and instantly reflect information, competition between traders insures reaction is instant and unbiased i.e. prices reflect true value.

The greatest proponent against the efficient market hypothesis? Warren Buffet who famously said that "if markets were efficient, I'd be a tramp on the street" (paraphrased).

Your also forgetting that this theorem needs a perfect market. Meaning no trading cost, no additional loan cost after interest, and same loan rate for private persons and companies, and no bankcrupcy costs, according to the M&M Theorems.

Anyways, with stocks you are paying for potential 90% of the time with technology firms.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
I just sold my NTDOY stock at $46.10. Once Nintendo passed Sony's valuation on the TSE, there began a process of massive profit taking. It's already down 2.5-3% since it hit the high on Sunday Night (US EST)/Monday Morning (JAP). The ADR thankfully still has an upward movement so I got out.

I think the stock will retrench in the face of that resistance for a couple of weeks since there's been no news, and then it will begin the upward climb. I'll hop back in again then. :)
 
Oh, I just found this old conversation I had with a friend of mine regarding the Nintendo stock. It was at $34 at the time, and I had just purchased my batch.

Session Start (Me:Him): Tue Feb 06 13:26:01 2007
[13:26:06] Him: not bad at all
[13:26:26] Me: i had an original price target/expectation of $40 by the end of this year
[13:26:35] Me: that would be a 16.6% rise
[13:26:54] Me: that was my conservative estimate. bullish estimate is $50 if they can meet demand with the wii
[13:27:11] Me: which would be 45.8% rise
[13:27:25] Me: so here's hoping :)
[13:27:59] Him: $40 sounds about right
Session Close (Him): Tue Feb 06 13:32:15 2007

And right now, the stock is very close to my most bullish year end estimate, and at the upper range of the estimates of nearly every analyst. Between the profit taking on the TSE the past couple of days, it being in the upper range of my bullish estimates, and there being no news for the next month or so, I figured now was a good time to sell out of the ADR.


Hopefully it'll drop back to the $43-$44 range and I can buy in again. If not, I still made my target estimates on the stock. :)
 
Back
Top