Nintendo Switch Revelation

[Goodtwin]

I don't think the 3DS was a failure at all. More like a moderate success in comparison to the DS, but not a failure.

I'm pretty confident that a lot of 3DS and Vita devs will come to the system. It could be a great place for more medium budget games (though I'd bet it'll get a few AAA games as well). If they really do have DQXI and are able hold on to Monster Hunter, Japan will already be interested. Not to mention Animal Crossing, Pokemon, etc.

The potential for a great system is there. It will at very least do far better than the Wii U I believe.

Exactly, the 3DS is going to sell 70-80 million units, and that's very impressive for a device that competes with smart devices. Some people will try to skew the perspective that it didn't sell nearly as well as the DS, but the DS is the highest selling piece of gaming hardware ever. Its like saying the PS4 will be a failure because it didn't sell as well as the PS2 did.

3DS and Vita devs will most certainly jump on board with Switch, its going to be huge in Japan. Nintendo alone will get the Switch out of the gate with Splatoon and Mario Kart, and probably a Monster Hunter from Capcom, all but making the Switch a huge success in Japan. The rest of the world is harder to judge, but we certainly did see high profile games from Nintendo spike Wii U sales. They surged with Mario 3D World, and then again with Smash and Mario Kart 8. If Nintendo can consistently roll out high profile first party games, they will drive the userbase, and third parties will certainly be there if the userbase is growing at a fast rate.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Exactly, the 3DS is going to sell 70-80 million units, and that's very impressive for a device that competes with smart devices. Some people will try to skew the perspective that it didn't sell nearly as well as the DS, but the DS is the highest selling piece of gaming hardware ever.

It's not skewing the perspective, but taking a different reference point.

Yes, 70 million units is successful for a handheld. The concern/point of contention is how the sales compare and what impact mobile has and how that'll affect N. in the future. Compare sales of DS and it saw increasing annual for five years. 3DS peaked at three years and has declined ever since. This points to decreasing interest in the handheld, no? And in turn, decreasing interest in N. handhelds going forwards? That's the question. If we spell it out...

Wii - runaway success
DS - runaway success
Wii U - failure
3DS - good success
NS - neither a full console nor an ideal handheld. As a console, Nintendo have always been tracking downwards apart from Wii. As a handheld, NS is facing a downward trend in handheld interest, no? So regardless whether we count 3DS as a success or failure based on different criteria, what are we to extrapolate for the future of NS?

To me, logically the assumption would be 'not great' unless it manages to resonate as a multifunction device, which is unpredictable.

 

[Deleted member 13524]

It seems Nintendo has predicted only 2 million Switch consoles being sold this fiscal year. 2 million seems really low for a console launch. The console will probably indeed debut in March but it will either be only in a few countries or in very limited quantities.

This might explain why the console reveal came up so late and why the console's gaming screens in the reveal video were added in post production. The console's production seems to be very late too.

 

[Goodtwin]

It's not skewing the perspective, but taking a different reference point.

Yes, 70 million units is successful for a handheld. The concern/point of contention is how the sales compare and what impact mobile has and how that'll affect N. in the future. Compare sales of DS and it saw increasing annual for five years. 3DS peaked at three years and has declined ever since. This points to decreasing interest in the handheld, no? And in turn, decreasing interest in N. handhelds going forwards? That's the question. If we spell it out...

Wii - runaway success
DS - runaway success
Wii U - failure
3DS - good success
NS - neither a full console nor an ideal handheld. As a console, Nintendo have always been tracking downwards apart from Wii. As a handheld, NS is facing a downward trend in handheld interest, no? So regardless whether we count 3DS as a success or failure based on different criteria, what are we to extrapolate for the future of NS?

To me, logically the assumption would be 'not great' unless it manages to resonate as a multifunction device, which is unpredictable.

Yea it is, its downplaying the success by comparing it to another more successful product. In order to really properly gauge success, the results must be measureable by a consistent metric. Basically a consistent grading scale. 0-25 million gets a F, 26-50 million gets a D, 51-75 million gets a C, 76-100 million gets a B, and 101+million units get a A. Everyone has an opinion on what the scale should look like, but its important to stay consistent across the board, and not change the grading scale.

I personally look back on Nintendo Console sales and see the NES 65 million units as being very successful, I don't believe anyone has ever declared the NES as being anything short a monumental success. The SNES was also considered to be very successful, and it came in short of 50 million units. Its the N64 that was the first Nintendo console to be considered an underperformer, and the Gamecube and Wii U are considered to be commercial failures. Wii and DS were so phenomenally successful, and basically the phrase "catching lightning in a bottle" comes to mind.

So with that said, the 3DS is certainly very successful, and even though sales have been slowing down, they are very good year over year, and haven't plummeted. With games like Pokémon and Mario Maker hitting the 3DS this Christmas season, I see another strong year for 3DS. For all we know, the system could hit 80 million units before its retired.

 

[wco81]

It seems Nintendo has predicted only 2 million Switch consoles being sold this fiscal year. 2 million seems really low for a console launch. The console will probably indeed debut in March but it will either be only in a few countries or in very limited quantities.

This might explain why the console reveal came up so late and why the console's gaming screens in the reveal video were added in post production. The console's production seems to be very late too.

Strange that they're teasing this if they're not going to launch until March.

It's not going to stop people from buying competing consoles this Christmas.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Yea it is, its downplaying the success by comparing it to another more successful product. In order to really properly gauge success, the results must be measureable by a consistent metric. Basically a consistent grading scale. 0-25 million gets a F, 26-50 million gets a D, 51-75 million gets a C, 76-100 million gets a B, and 101+million units get a A. Everyone has an opinion on what the scale should look like, but its important to stay consistent across the board, and not change the grading scale.

I don't fully disagree, but it's not as black-and-white as that as success is relative to the times. eg.

I personally look back on Nintendo Console sales and see the NES 65 million units as being very successful, I don't believe anyone has ever declared the NES as being anything short a monumental success.

Right. Because at that point in time the console market was only that size and NES commanded a huge share of it. However, a 65 million selling console this or last gen would be considered so-so, because the market is far larger. Again, it's matter of perspective. All comparisons are relative and need be qualified. One perspective isn't necessarily truer than another. For a good understanding, generally a range of perspectives are required. Look up the Sinclair ZX Spectrum and you'll read it was an incredibly successful 8 bit computer, yet it only sold 5 million - laughable amounts relative to modern electronics. It's all about perspective.

So with that said, the 3DS is certainly very successful, and even though sales have been slowing down, they are very good year over year, and haven't plummeted. With games like Pokémon and Mario Maker hitting the 3DS this Christmas season, I see another strong year for 3DS. For all we know, the system could hit 80 million units before its retired.

Which doesn't contradict what I said at all. We're talking about NS here. What do the trends show us as reasonable predictions for NS, in your opinion? For quick reference (from here)



For me, as a console NS is in trouble. As a handheld, it's not as ideally suited as the previous handhelds and it has more competition from mobiles than everything prior to 3DS ever had.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

It's not skewing the perspective, but taking a different reference point.

Yes, 70 million units is successful for a handheld. The concern/point of contention is how the sales compare and what impact mobile has and how that'll affect N. in the future. Compare sales of DS and it saw increasing annual for five years. 3DS peaked at three years and has declined ever since. This points to decreasing interest in the handheld, no? And in turn, decreasing interest in N. handhelds going forwards? That's the question. If we spell it out...

Wii - runaway success
DS - runaway success
Wii U - failure
3DS - good success
NS - neither a full console nor an ideal handheld. As a console, Nintendo have always been tracking downwards apart from Wii. As a handheld, NS is facing a downward trend in handheld interest, no? So regardless whether we count 3DS as a success or failure based on different criteria, what are we to extrapolate for the future of NS?

To me, logically the assumption would be 'not great' unless it manages to resonate as a multifunction device, which is unpredictable.

To be fair DS was released in 2004 and didn't have a successor until 2011 with sales continuing after the release of 3DS in 2011. So 7 years of uncontested sales + a relatively strong tail. The 3DS has only been out since 2011. So only 5 years worth of sales and no idea how strong of a tail it will have after the release of the Switch. It'll have 6 years of sales by the time Switch releases.

It hasn't done as well as the DS obviously and in many ways it's quite similar to PS2 -> PS3. Although unlike PS3 it won't have as much time to garner sales to make it look better. PS2 had 6 years to garner sales before it's successor while PS3 had 7 years. The opposite of the DS -> 3DS. Of course, on the flip side the Wii-U was a massive failure compared to the Wii.

So, Sony was able to reverse the trend of PS2 -> PS3 with PS4. Question is, can Nintendo reverse the trend with the Switch. Hard to say. I can see how it could be attractive to many, but also unattractive to many for the same reasons that make it attractive to the former group.

For example, I like that it has a significantly larger screen than the 3DS. Unfortunately that also makes it a much larger portable device, which will make it less desirable for many people. I like the fact that I can hook it up to the TV relatively easily (something I wish was easy to do with a 3DS). But some people view that as too much of a compromise versus a device that is specialized for either home or mobile.

I love that the controls are detachable as I find it uncomfortable to game on a 3DS for long periods due to how awkward it is to hold (for me). The detachable controllers mean that I can use it with controls that are more like your average controller. Again, something that some people see as not desirable.

So, TL: DR. It's rather hard to predict how this is going to do. The safe bet is that it'll likely sell better than the Wii-U. What's hard to say is whether it will do better than the 3DS.

I have a gut feeling that it'll do better than the 3DS, but nothing more than just a gut feeling. And acknowledge that there's an equally good chance that it could do worse. One thing that I find interesting is that I've run into people that haven't been excited about Nintendo since before the release of the Wii-U that are somewhat excited about the release of the Switch.

Regards,
SB

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Then compare first five years

DS : 3DS (sales millions)

5.27 : 3.61
11.26 : 13.53
23.56 : 13.95
30.31 : 12.24
27.11 : 8.73

Percentage wise, 3DS ==

69%
120%
59%
40%
32%

the point with this comparison is to recognise sales weren't as good, leading to the question 'why' and what lessons that tells us. I think many of us are in agreement than the main reason is because mobile gaming took off and the interest in a dedicated handheld gaming device is much less than it used to be. Also, that interest continues to decrease. So a discrete handheld gaming device is likely to sell less than 3DS did, continuing this line of reasoning and projection, unless it can do like Wii and hit another area of desirability otherwise not touched upon.

 

[BRiT]

The success of Nintendo Switch will come down to price. How expensive is the hardware? How expensive are the games? Are the games priced as full console prices $60, are they priced as 3ds games $40, or are they priced as mobile games at $10?

 

[wco81]

No way games will be $10.

The silicon shouldn't command a higher price than the Xbox One S, given that it's not more powerful.

But of course there's the screen and those remote controllers.

 

[MrFox]

Depends if games are mobile quality, or 3DS quality, or home console quality.

If the games cost as much to produce as typical AAA home console games, they will have to be priced accordingly.

In addition, the storage itself will be relatively more expensive than a home console, both in manufacturing ROM for retail and in local storage for downloads.

 

[Goodtwin]

I don't fully disagree, but it's not as black-and-white as that as success is relative to the times. eg.
Right. Because at that point in time the console market was only that size and NES commanded a huge share of it. However, a 65 million selling console this or last gen would be considered so-so, because the market is far larger. Again, it's matter of perspective. All comparisons are relative and need be qualified. One perspective isn't necessarily truer than another. For a good understanding, generally a range of perspectives are required. Look up the Sinclair ZX Spectrum and you'll read it was an incredibly successful 8 bit computer, yet it only sold 5 million - laughable amounts relative to modern electronics. It's all about perspective.

Which doesn't contradict what I said at all. We're talking about NS here. What do the trends show us as reasonable predictions for NS, in your opinion? For quick reference (from here)

View attachment 1670

For me, as a console NS is in trouble. As a handheld, it's not as ideally suited as the previous handhelds and it has more competition from mobiles than everything prior to 3DS ever had.

I think expecting any market to show continuous growth, especially when the number of competitors continues to rise, is a recipe for disappointment. While I agree the market for gaming has expanded over the years, so has the number of devices to satisfy consumers. Smart devices like phones and tablets have certainly consumed much of the market that was dominated by portable gaming hardware, but truthfully they have cut into the dedicated gaming market in its entirety. Many kids these days are asking for a tablet instead of a gaming system. I'm sure many consumers are opting for something like an Apple TV as another alternative. Basically, selling 150 million units will likely be tougher than ever, even though the market has grown and matured, because the number of devices competing for consumers dollars is grown exponentially.

Nintendo must use their mobile offerings like Pokémon Go and Mario Run to help transition some of those consumers to Switch. Its hard to say what the potential looks like for Switch. If Ubisoft is correct, and Switch does strike a chord with those previous Wii consumers, then we could see a product that sells 80+ million pieces, but if I am betting man, I would venture to guess that Nintendo is budgeting on Switch selling 40-60 million units.

Some of the keys for "success" is dependent upon just how bloated did Nintendo become throughout the Wii/DS years? I would guess not to bad, seeing as how they have weathered the Wii U failure without losing their asses. Nintendo doesn't do 500 man development teams, and instead often outsources work to Monolisoft, Retro, Platinum Games, Banda Namco and so on. This keeps the redundancy of various positions to a minimum, while still allowing them to create large ambitious software. If Nintendo can get back to Nintendo like profits while only selling 40-60 million Switch units, then yes, that is a profitable sustainable business plan.

 

[Rangers]

I am quite sure at the very least your Mario 3D and Zelda games will be $60. The handheld dimension does introduce the possibility of lower priced titles I suppose, but I wouldn't count on it. Especially since carts are probably jacking up the BOM some amount for the games.

I mean, I cant see Tetris or something, just an example, being more than $20...

But, IMO $60 is historically extremely underpriced for Triple A relative to inflation and costs. That's why I view DLC, micro transactions, etc as all endless necessary end runs around a firm $60 tag.

 

[Goodtwin]

I am quite sure at the very least your Mario 3D and Zelda games will be $60. The handheld dimension does introduce the possibility of lower priced titles I suppose, but I wouldn't count on it. Especially since carts are probably jacking up the BOM some amount for the games.

I mean, I cant see Tetris or something, just an example, being more than $20...

But, IMO $60 is historically extremely underpriced for Triple A relative to inflation and costs. That's why I view DLC, micro transactions, etc as all endless necessary end runs around a firm $60 tag.

Nintendo has used numerous different pricing structures for games on Wii U. Catain Toad was $40 when released, Donkey Kong Tropical Freeze was $50. I see no issue with not having a one price fits all. Honestly, its time for a publisher to have the balls to release a $70 game. There is no reason some of these massive budget games cant sell for that. Turok on N64 launched for $70, and i think even a few SNES games did as well. Disk based media is what helped drive cost back down.

 

[BadTB25]

This is Nintendo---they think they're Apple and can charge premium prices for low tier hardware. I also expect games to be closer to $60 than $30.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

Then compare first five years

DS : 3DS (sales millions)

5.27 : 3.61
11.26 : 13.53
23.56 : 13.95
30.31 : 12.24
27.11 : 8.73

Percentage wise, 3DS ==

69%
120%
59%
40%
32%

the point with this comparison is to recognise sales weren't as good, leading to the question 'why' and what lessons that tells us. I think many of us are in agreement than the main reason is because mobile gaming took off and the interest in a dedicated handheld gaming device is much less than it used to be. Also, that interest continues to decrease. So a discrete handheld gaming device is likely to sell less than 3DS did, continuing this line of reasoning and projection, unless it can do like Wii and hit another area of desirability otherwise not touched upon.

I understand that, but the main point of my post was to address the entirety of your post including this bit.

NS - neither a full console nor an ideal handheld. As a console, Nintendo have always been tracking downwards apart from Wii. As a handheld, NS is facing a downward trend in handheld interest, no? So regardless whether we count 3DS as a success or failure based on different criteria, what are we to extrapolate for the future of NS?

To me, logically the assumption would be 'not great' unless it manages to resonate as a multifunction device, which is unpredictable.

PlayStation was also on a downward trend very similar Nintendo's trend in handhelds and while the overall console market was still healthy, there were signs that consoles might be on the downswing as well. Yet despite that the PS4 completely upended that trend.

It's hard to evaluate whether handhelds in general are on a downward trend versus Nintendo is on a downtrend as outside of Japan, Nintendo is handhelds with competitors largely being marginalized. Conventional wisdom would be that handhelds are on a downward trend and the Switch is unlikely to change that significantly. But conventional wisdom also didn't come remotely close to predicting how successful the PS4 would be after seeing how PS3 performed relative to the PS2.

Complicating matters is Nintendo blurring the lines between handheld and stationary consoles.

In all, I see more upside to the Switch compared to both the 3DS and obviously failing Wii U than downsides (which are considerable). Hence, gut feeling of it doing better than the 3DS. Not PS4 levels of reversal of fortunes, but I think it has a better than 50/50 chance to sell better than the 3DS. That would certainly count as not following a downward trajectory.

Regards,
SB

 

[milk]

That sounds very reasonable SB.

 

[tongue_of_colicab]

Shifty sees Big N rollin', he hatin'

 

[Entropy]

I understand that, but the main point of my post was to address the entirety of your post including this bit.



PlayStation was also on a downward trend very similar Nintendo's trend in handhelds and while the overall console market was still healthy, there were signs that consoles might be on the downswing as well. Yet despite that the PS4 completely upended that trend.

While you seem to be talking about the PS4 and not consoles as a whole (previous gen just under 300million, this gen 75-80million after 3 or 4 (WiiU) years), even the PS4 is not certain to actually eventually reach the 85million or so of its predecessor.
In that sense, Nintendo goes with the flow - people have gotten used to and clearly like to be able to enjoy their entertainment more flexibly than in a single spot, tying up what for many is a shared resource in the household. But for some and sometimes, that big screen experience is compelling, and so the Switch offers both. Nobody knows how well that will resonate with consumers, generally peoples reactions seem rather up beat, but whether that will extend to positive first hand experiences and word of mouth remains to be seen. Personally I see this as a more credible path than any other I've seen, so if this fails, then I'm at a loss what remains for consoles beyond the extrapolation of rather unencouraging trends.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

PlayStation was also on a downward trend...But conventional wisdom also didn't come remotely close to predicting how successful the PS4 would be after seeing how PS3 performed relative to the PS2.

That's not a trend. A trend in consoles would have to be charted across several generations. Otherwise people could have looked at Wii and concluded that N.'s next console would sell 200 million... With only two reference points you've no idea if one of them lies on the trending curve or is an anomaly. Looking at all Nintendo's consoles, there's a very clear downward trend with Wii just being anomalous.

(I'll add that I wouldn't even expect such obvious trends as I'd have thought ongoing adaptation would result in different products with different levels of success. It's only Nintendo of the current players that has this definite market-share erosion going on. The other guys have platforms that are hit or miss per platform, no trends.)

PS1 was a runaway success. PS2 was a runaway success. PS3 was a comparative failure, and analysis clearly shows why. PS4 is back onto the formula of PS1 and PS2 and doing pretty well for itself. If there's any trend for Sony, it's generational leading console sales (75% of their attempts). PSP was a comparative success; Vita wasn't. Not enough data on Sony handhelds to get a trend and predict a new handheld's performance. Was Vita just the wrong handheld at the wrong price, or is it now an irrelevant market thanks to mobile? Is it worth Sony trying again with a handheld (I think not!)

Going back to Globby's post that started this talk, he was saying he reckoned NS was a Wii U replacement, sold alongside 3DS, and a true handheld replacement is still due as the handheld market is still strong for N. Well, I reckon they saw the trouble they are having selling home consoles and thought to try to leverage their handheld to make TV console inroads, so a true 3DS successor isn't on the cards. That said, Nintendo are happy to bring out lots of devices and flavours of handheld, so I don't discount a true 3DS replacement sold alongside Switch. But I don't think 3DS will be stopped as people transition over to NS.