Next Generation Hardware Speculation with a Technical Spin [2018]

[OCASM]

I've already said it doesn't.


This is the first gen with decent compute and with little headroom because that same silicon is having to render the graphics. You could take a game targeting XB1's 1.4 TF and add 5 TFs on top for computing fancy lighting and whatnot. I also argue that improvements are marginal. Comparing the latest, greatest games to launch titles, there are significant imrpovements.

Not if your fixed function units can't do what you need them to do to accelerate your workloads. The rasterising units in the PS4 are sitting idle when rendering Dreams.

1) Yet you still base your predictions on it.
2) They certainly look better but not due to tech innovations but rather art content and marginal improvements on existing techniques.
3) That's on Media Molecule for not making the best use of the hardware.
4) 1080p30fps with tacked on rushed naive implementations. Also why are you assuming 60fps target for AAA next-gen games? It'd be nice but it's not happening. 4K native for next-gen base consoles is just dumb. Should be relegated to pro-consoles just like this gen (I can only hope).
5) RT hardware of a competing company. For all we know the acceleration architecture designed by AMD is completely different. Could be better or even worse. Speculation based on Turing is just that, speculation.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Quote me a prediction I've made where I've said what's going to happen next gen regards RT...

There is a question that some are trying to debate.

"Ray tracing is the future of real time graphics. Should ray tracing hardware make an appearance in the next-gen consoles?"​

That discussion needs to balance what can be accomplished with RT versus what can be accomplished with rasterising. How are we supposed to discuss that if our reference point is a hypothetical, unknown, unproven design from AMD that may be on the cards? How's about also debating if quantum computing should be a part of next gen with a hypothetical interdimensional GPU from AMD. And let's throw in some hypothetical super advanced organic neural net machine learning processor that AMD are going to unveil next year too. Or, let's just stick to discussing what data we have to hand, and then advance the discussion as more data comes to light...

 

[BRiT]

Lets discuss Next-Gen console powered by a Rick&Morty universe in a battery box!

 

[eloic]

Lets discuss Next-Gen console powered by a Rick&Morty universe in a battery box!

Wubba lubba dub dub!

 

[DavidGraham]

We know RT is the future.

This is not about whether it's the future or not, it's about winds blowing in the direction of ray tracing, including a console official stating clearly that RT is a part of their next console.

How are we supposed to discuss that if our reference point is a hypothetical, unknown, unproven design from AMD that may be on the cards? How's about also debating if quantum computing should be a part of next gen with a hypothetical interdimensional GPU from AMD. And let's throw in some hypothetical super advanced organic neural net machine learning processor that AMD are going to unveil next year too. Or, let's just stick to discussing what data we have to hand, and then advance the discussion as more data comes to light...

Again, you are ignoring general trends. I see no general trends for quantum computing or the interdimensional GPU. I see no API prepared for them, I see no console official or developer talking about them, I see no GPU manufacturer talking about them. I see no developer implementing them into their engines right now. But I see all of these things happening with RT and is happening right now. Which makes the discussion whether consoles will get them right now completely valid.

It's unwise basing everything on the first iteration of RT, on both software and hardware levels. Things will change a year from now, by the advent of new hardware and through new techniques. It's not wise to ignore all of that and focus on the "narrow" view of the first iteration of the tech. Consoles could just as easily implement the second or third iteration being prepared in advance. Wouldn't be the first time too.

 

[OCASM]

Quote me a prediction I've made where I've said what's going to happen next gen regards RT...

There is a question that some are trying to debate.

"Ray tracing is the future of real time graphics. Should ray tracing hardware make an appearance in the next-gen consoles?"​

That discussion needs to balance what can be accomplished with RT versus what can be accomplished with rasterising. How are we supposed to discuss that if our reference point is a hypothetical, unknown, unproven design from AMD that may be on the cards? How's about also debating if quantum computing should be a part of next gen with a hypothetical interdimensional GPU from AMD. And let's throw in some hypothetical super advanced organic neural net machine learning processor that AMD are going to unveil next year too. Or, let's just stick to discussing what data we have to hand, and then advance the discussion as more data comes to light...

RTX numbers are all we have but that doesn't mean they'e useful. RTX numbers only apply to RTX hardware and since AMD has nothing to do with RTX...

Both from a hardware and an algorithmic perspective all we have right now is pure speculation.

 

[iroboto]

I somewhat agree. Fully fledged RT on consoles, requiring the silicon use of the RTX2070, I think still sits at 5%.

I think we're looking at quite a high probability if CU's can be customised in some relatively cheap way to provide limited RT - pulling figures out of my arse, let's say it makes CU's 10% larger, and 50% as effective as Nvidia's fixed function units, but allows devs greater flexibility over how much they focus on RT.

If I recall correctly, DX12 and some aspects of SM6 are modeled heavily in favour of GCN (probably more DX12 TBH)
So I'd be surprised if there was this overt deviation from the GCN (for their next graphics architecture or our next gen consoles) setup to follow in nvidia's footsteps by doing fixed function hardware if that's how they want to support RT.

I'm still very much a believer that we'll see something similar to GCN than something radically different whether you want to call that Navi or post Navi.

 

[Allandor]

This is not about whether it's the future or not, it's about winds blowing in the direction of ray tracing, including a console official stating clearly that RT is a part of their next console.


Again, you are ignoring general trends. I see no general trends for quantum computing or the interdimensional GPU. I see no API prepared for them, I see no console official or developer talking about them, I see no GPU manufacturer talking about them. I see no developer implementing them into their engines right now. But I see all of these things happening with RT and is happening right now. Which makes the discussion whether consoles will get them right now completely valid.

It's unwise basing everything on the first iteration of RT, on both software and hardware levels. Things will change a year from now, by the advent of new hardware and through new techniques. It's not wise to ignore all of that and focus on the "narrow" view of the first iteration of the tech. Consoles could just as easily implement the second or third iteration being prepared in advance. Wouldn't be the first time too.

I see no general trend to Ray Tracing. Just support for Ray Tracing to make it a bit faster in some professional programs.
Yet there is not a single RT game on the marked and the demos were not that good (looking good, but 1080p with more or less 30fps).
You can also write "hardware accelerated physics is the next thing". Had that, we had it supported by various software-projects but it failed.
VR … well it is still alive but really only minimal alive. It is and will be a niche marked for the next few years.
Cloud … ^^ ...

 

[OCASM]

I see no general trend to Ray Tracing. Just support for Ray Tracing to make it a bit faster in some professional programs.
Yet there is not a single RT game on the marked and the demos were not that good (looking good, but 1080p with more or less 30fps).
You can also write "hardware accelerated physics is the next thing". Had that, we had it supported by various software-projects but it failed.
VR … well it is still alive but really only minimal alive. It is and will be a niche marked for the next few years.
Cloud … ^^ ...

Professional programs called "game engines"?

 

[DavidGraham]

I see no general trend to Ray Tracing. Just support for Ray Tracing to make it a bit faster in some professional programs

Then you must have messed the:
Games showcasing RT
Game engines integrating RT
Console officials talking about RT
Game developers talking about RT
API developed specifically for RT

Yeah, you've missed quite a lot.

You can also write "hardware accelerated physics is the next thing". Had that, we had it supported by various software-projects but it failed.

Failed where? most games already have some kind of GPU accelerated particles.

 

[iroboto]

I see no general trend to Ray Tracing. Just support for Ray Tracing to make it a bit faster in some professional programs.

I shouldn't respond to this because we've been asked not to. But I mean... you don't see that all the games that MS is marketing?
BFV, Shadow of the Tomber Raider, PUBG, Metro, We Happy Few, Control - long time partner Remedy, Ark Survival Evolved, Mechwarrior V which is a MS licensed out IP...
... are all taking on DXR/DLSS ?
To me MS does seem to be the central hub for RT across the industry here and their importance in driving standardized RT for the game industry needs to be underlined here.
The only thing that would jump start it would be the inclusion of RT in the next Xbox to solidify the movement.

It makes sense from a business POV.
Hardware capability and what is considered sufficient is a fierce debate we are having right now.

I think at this point in time, it does make sense for everyone to just slow down until more information is revealed and we can assess again.

What drove me to write my post 50 replies earlier, had to do with noticing a majority of the DXR team (that just might be a title thing), when I linkedIn searched them, also noticed they were also on the same team developing the next Xbox. So it drove me to move the needle from beyond 5% to slightly higher. I don't think that's anything anecdotal, the business case is glaring. But as we're reading here, there's not enough information from a technical perspective yet to suggest RT is a sure fire way to go. But I'm positive that over the months more information will come.

 

[BRiT]

I see people being cautious until there is corroborating evidence that RT is the general trend that makes market sense to support.

Currently the market for RT games is less than 1% of all PC Gamers. Will it increase in the next 3 years? Absolutely. Will it be over the threshold to release RT-only games in 5 years? Highly Improbable. So the general trend for released games in the next 5 years is non-RT.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

This is not about whether it's the future or not, it's about winds blowing in the direction of ray tracing, including a console official stating clearly that RT is a part of their next console.

Can you link that, because I can't find it.

It's unwise basing everything on the first iteration of RT, on both software and hardware levels. Things will change a year from now, by the advent of new hardware and through new techniques.

If that stance is to be taken, than there should be no discussion about raytracing until a year from now because we've no data at all! It's better to discuss the info we have to hand, and then update as new info comes to light. Because, most importantly, it doesn't matter whether an opinion is wrong or not. If one considers RT a bad idea now, and then it becomes a good idea a year from now, the world doesn't end. The point of this board has always been intelligent discussion about options.

Specifically here, what if one console launches with RT and one doesn't. How disadvantaged will one be and in what ways? Could we face a choice between a 4k60 console with simpler visuals versus a F4k30 with better over graphics? How much difference would there be between the RT enabled console and the other one?

The discussion can and should also be taken further to what changes could be made/added to a console to better facilitate RT without negatively impacting the balance elsewhere.

There really is a lot that could be discussed if we could move past the 'RT is so awesome' phase and look at the meat-and-potatoes of the decision making process that MS and Sony are facing.

 

[DavidGraham]

Can you link that, because I can't find it.

I posted it twice in my previous comments, but here it is again. You can play the video directly as I have timestamped the important bit.

Either that stance is to be taken, thaNn there should be no discussion about raytracing until a year from now because we've no data at all!

We have strong indicators from the general trends, which I already enumerated.

Specifically here, what if one console launches with RT and one doesn't. How disadvantaged will one be and in what ways? Could we face a choice between a 4k60 console with simpler visuals versus a F4k30 with better over graphics? How much difference would there be between the RT enabled console and the other one?

I agree. We should be discussing these points extensively.

The discussion can and should also be taken further to what changes could be made/added to a console to better facilitate RT without negatively impacting the balance elsewhere.

But we can't move to that discussion, can we? Not with several people shutting the discussion off completely based on speculations from the first iteration.

 

[Ike Turner]

I shouldn't respond to this because we've been asked not to. But I mean... you don't see that all the games that MS is marketing?
BFV, Shadow of the Tomber Raider, PUBG, Metro, We Happy Few, Control - long time partner Remedy, Ark Survival Evolved, Mechwarrior V which is a MS licensed out IP...
... are all taking on DXR/DLSS ?
To me MS does seem to be the central hub for RT across the industry here and their importance in driving standardized RT for the game industry needs to be underlined here.
The only thing that would jump start it would be the inclusion of RT in the next Xbox to solidify the movement.

It makes sense from a business POV.
Hardware capability and what is considered sufficient is a fierce debate we are having right now.

I think at this point in time, it does make sense for everyone to just slow down until more information is revealed and we can assess again.

What drove me to write my post 50 replies earlier, had to do with noticing a majority of the DXR team, when I linkedIn searched them, also noticed they were also on the same team developing the next Xbox. So it drove me to move the needle from beyond 5% to slightly higher. I don't think that's anything anecdotal, the business case is glaring. But as we're reading here, there's not enough information from a technical perspective yet to suggest RT is a sure fire way to go. But I'm positive that over the months more information will come.

Microsoft isn't marketing any of those games. Nvidia (and Epic) is and for obvious reasons. As a matter of fact MS hasn't said squat about DXR since the announcement at GDC besides the little blurb last week when Windows 10 October Update was finally released. They didn't even re-tweet or whatever any of Nvidia's RTX/Turing announcements. 99% of the RT talk is being done by NVidia and its "paid partners" (devs who have been paid to work on implementing RTX) Yes the DX team includes Xbox ATG team members but this obivously doesn't translate into: The next Xbox will have "dedicated RT HW ala Nvidia RT Cores". Frankly there's no real need to speculate further until AMD decided to unveil it's next HW..then we will be able to have a better idea about what's to come.

Oh and Spencer is the head of Xbox. Xbox includes: Consoles, PCs and Streaming...

 

[Shifty Geezer]

I posted it twice in my previous comments, but here it is again. You can play the video directly as I have timestamped the important bit.

Okay, no wonder I missed it and Google has no mention of raytracing in the next Xbox as it's a throw-away line. "Framerate, framerate, oh raytracing and other stuff." I don't take that to mean there's 'raytracing' in the next xbox per se, same as RTX or custom hardware. MS said XB1X would support VR explicitly and it didn't happen. You can support raytracing in compute, so he could as readily mean games are going to feature raytracing aspects through their API running on compute.

 

[DavidGraham]

Microsoft isn't marketing any of those games. Nvidia (and Epic) is and for obvious reasons.

They've talked about it on their official Windows blog, mentioning RTX games, RTX tech and NVIDIA by name.
https://blogs.msdn.microsoft.com/di...acing-and-the-windows-10-october-2018-update/

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Oh and Spencer is the head of Xbox. Xbox includes: Consoles, PCs and Streaming...

Even then we don't know, as that might be for PS5 next year, and XB could come the year after with something new. The discussion should be more generic, about what RT brings and how rasterisation compares.

 

[iroboto]

Microsoft isn't marketing any of those games. Nvidia (and Epic) is and for obvious reasons. As a matter of fact MS hasn't said squat about DXR since the announcement at GDC besides the little blurb last week when Windows 10 October Update was finally released. They didn't even re-tweet or whatever any of Nvidia's RTX/Turing announcements. 99% of the RT talk is being done by NVidia and its "paid partners" (devs who have been paid to work on implementing RTX) Yes the DX team includes Xbox ATG team members but this obivously doesn't translate into: The next Xbox will have "dedicated RT HW ala Nvidia RT Cores". Frankly there's no real need to speculate further until AMD decided to unveil it's next HW..then we will be able to have a better idea about what's to come.

Oh and Spencer is the head of Xbox. Xbox includes: Consoles, PCs and Streaming...

on the Xbox side? Yes they have marketing rights in the console space
BFV: https://www.gamespot.com/articles/looks-like-microsoft-has-battlefield-5s-marketing-/1100-6459172/
https://powerup-gaming.com/2018/04/05/microsoft-marketing-exclusive-borderlands-anthem/

• Borderlands 3
• Cyberpunk 2077
• Splinter Cell
• Battlefield V
• Madden
• Anthem

It’s also been claimed that Microsoft marketing will extend to Shadow of the Tomb Raider and The Division 2.
some of these could be inaccurate, (questionably SOTR and Madden). We Happy Few is a MS owned company.

There's more than just the DX team working on DXR. Coalition developers are also there helping out from what I've been able to see thus far.

I don't take this to mean it's guaranteed. It's much more than an nvidia lead movement.

 

[DavidGraham]

I don't take that to mean there's 'raytracing' in the next xbox per se, same as RTX or custom hardware.

The way he said it, several months before the industry started moving in the direction of RT could mean he is really onto something.

You can support raytracing in compute, so he could as readily mean games are going to feature raytracing aspects through their API running on compute.

You can, and you can also do it in hardware and software together. We should be discussing this, instead of shunning off ray tracing completely for consoles.

The discussion should be more generic, about what RT brings and how rasterisation compares.

Agreed.