Next Generation Hardware Speculation with a Technical Spin [2018]

[goonergaz]

I personally hope it will be a $300 machine and good-enough performance, like the PS2.

How can you hope for this with pro price as it is today? Logic would suggest $400 and up...more likely $500 IMO

 

[goonergaz]

I can't see either firm allowing next gen titles run on current gen titles as it will kneecap the new box for 3rd party titles (ie min. effort scaling between bixes) and stop 1st party titles from truly showing off the new box. XB1X s/w is compromised by needing to run on XB1 to the point where it's hard in 1080p YT videos to make the case that it's money we'll spent. If XB2 games also have to carry XB1 or XB1X they won't look as good or make as compelling a case to buy XB2 as XB2 only s/w could. Yes the x86 design of the current and future gens makes cross gen compatibility easier but it doesn't make it free. Every game system and design ambition will be stymied by having to ask yourself "But will it work on 8 Jaguar cores?".

This (IMO) is why Sony are being clear about 'genetations'. Be interesting if MS release next gen with no next gen exclusives (I don't think they will but it might be something they are considering)?

 

[Shifty Geezer]

I can't see either firm allowing next gen titles run on current gen titles as it will kneecap the new box for 3rd party titles.

How are they going to stop them? A T&C in the licensing agreement that devs aren't allowed to release games on the old machines and the new? So FIFA will be next-gen only, and Fortnite+PUBG will...abandon their existing users, or not release on next-gen machines? What about cross-platform? Are these same T&Cs that don't allow ports to last-gen machines also going to disallow ports to PC under a certain minimum spec, to prevent next-gen games getting kneecapped?

No console company is going to be that draconian towards the devs - they'll just alienate them. They'll all just accept natural economics and the progression of tech will follow the market. 1st/2nd party games, plus the promise of betterness, will ensure the next-gen consoles sell plenty, and devs will make games for the audience that buys.

 

[Lalaland]

How are they going to stop them? A T&C in the licensing agreement that devs aren't allowed to release games on the old machines and the new? So FIFA will be next-gen only, and Fortnite+PUBG will...abandon their existing users, or not release on next-gen machines? What about cross-platform? Are these same T&Cs that don't allow ports to last-gen machines also going to disallow ports to PC under a certain minimum spec, to prevent next-gen games getting kneecapped?

No console company is going to be that draconian towards the devs - they'll just alienate them. They'll all just accept natural economics and the progression of tech will follow the market. 1st/2nd party games, plus the promise of betterness, will ensure the next-gen consoles sell plenty, and devs will make games for the audience that buys.

They'll simply ensure the APIs enforce boundaries, you may get FIFA 2020 on both platforms from a common code base but the disc and game will be restricted to one platform or the other. One of the main buying impulses for a next gen platform is New Game X not being available on it. This way devs can leverage the economies of commonality but the hard platform split is maintained. I'd imagine a lot of annual sports franchises will move to the "roster update" model for old platforms while dev effort focuses on the new platforms. For most other genres I would damn well hope they plan to use the greater CPU grunt in ways that would make shrinking to fit for PS4/XB1 a much harder task than selecting a render target from a drop down.

 

[goonergaz]

We will get 3rd party cross gen for the first year or so because it's a massive market to lose out on, it's up to Sony and MS to ensure exclusives that show the true next gen capabilities.

 

[turkey]

True, but we've seen dynamic resolutions become a lot more prevalent as this generation's gone on, as well as overall lower resolutions in more demanding games i.e. Battlefield 1 dynamically scaling down to 900p on PS4 and 720p on XBoxOne. So the base hardware's at least showing signs of not being able to keep up with its 1080p ambitions.

This is a good point but with a bad example I feel.

BF4 launched at 900p on PS4 and 720p on Xbox one. So Dice have not only upped the pixel quality but also added dynamic improvements to pixel quantity over time. The consoles have always struggled against the best pc gaming can offer but atm they are handing in less underpowered performances as time goes on. That may change with BFV, who knows.

Has dynamic been used as a crutch to stop awful performance or in general for extra results such as BF1 to allow resoltions above the previous set native when the gpu allows.

I suppose what game has dynamic and caps at 720p, a top out of 900 is little different or could be argued an improvement over launch titles so still at the performance peak of its lifecycle.* On Xbox.

A dymanic res game with ceiling of 900p for PS4 would be equivalent I guess.

 

[borntosoul]

New consol, new hardware and new frontiers, forget the old and backwards compatibility. Needs to be super efficient, probably Picasso style core.


PlayStation Picasso sounds cool.

 

[ultragpu]

With the massive revenues from PS4 and the entire Sony gaming division, I really hope Sony go all out with PS5 hardware, give us a 14 tf monster because we deserve the reward.

 

[Xbat]

With the massive revenues from PS4 and the entire Sony gaming division, I really hope Sony go all out with PS5 hardware, give us a 14 tf monster because we deserve the reward.

Question is can they, is it possible?

 

[ultragpu]

Question is can they, is it possible?

Well DF said it's possible hardware wise at just below 15tf, it would just be expensive and maybe larger form factor. Would be interesting to see how much all these earnings can affect the outcome that's for sure.

 

[Lalaland]

With the massive revenues from PS4 and the entire Sony gaming division, I really hope Sony go all out with PS5 hardware, give us a 14 tf monster because we deserve the reward.

I think a more likely response is to say "the $399 price point rules let's do that again", a lot harder to argue for $499 when the balance sheet is swimming in black thanks to launching a product with margin already baked in versus the old "long tail" model where the early h/w is sold at a loss (typically until the first shrink/redesign) with s/w making up the difference

 

[goonergaz]

I really hope Sony go all out with PS5 hardware, give us a 14 tf monster because we deserve the reward.

For the players!

 

[ultragpu]

I think a more likely response is to say "the $399 price point rules let's do that again", a lot harder to argue for $499 when the balance sheet is swimming in black thanks to launching a product with margin already baked in versus the old "long tail" model where the early h/w is sold at a loss (typically until the first shrink/redesign) with s/w making up the difference

Thing is you may not enjoy the same luxury of what $399 could bring you this time since the competition has learned their mistakes. We know power doesn't mean everything nor shall it be under-looked either, getting butchered by a 30-40% power deficiency for multiplatform at launch could be detrimental for establishing a good image for the consumers. My ideal scenario is for both MS and Sony to go all out and have very comparable consoles power wise (difference between 5-10% tops) so that the base console is strong enough to not limit anyone down.

 

[chris1515]

Thing is you may not enjoy the same luxury of what $399 could bring you this time since the competition has learned their mistakes. We know power doesn't mean everything nor shall it be under-looked either, getting butchered by a 30-40% power deficiency for multiplatform at launch could be detrimental for establishing a good image for the consumers. My ideal scenario is for both MS and Sony to go all out and have very comparable consoles power wise (difference between 5-10% tops) so that the base console is strong enough to not limit anyone down.

At launch Sony was losing nearly 60 dollars on PS4. I will not be surprised if they lost 60 to 100 dollars on PS5 at launch.

 

[turkey]

For the players!

At the price point needed,

for the ballers

Might become more appropriate

 

[MrFox]

At launch Sony was losing nearly 60 dollars on PS4. I will not be surprised if they lost 60 to 100 dollars on PS5 at launch.

But they had a quick path to hardware profit as soon as 8gbits parts came out, and that procurement was certainly planned ahead.

This time, it's more difficult to see any short term cost reduction.

 

[anexanhume]

But they had a quick path to hardware profit as soon as 8gbits parts came out, and that procurement was certainly planned ahead.

This time, it's more difficult to see any short term cost reduction.

I think their view of revenue structure is vastly different this time around. PS+ adoption was very slim when PS4 launched, and now more than 1/3 of PS4 owners have PS+. Digital game revenue and its share of game sales are up drastically. All of these positively affect Sony’s bottom line.

I would argue that they’re in a better position to take a loss on the hardware, and not just because they’re the market leader and their parent company is healthy.

 

[Deleted member 11852]

With the massive revenues from PS4 and the entire Sony gaming division, I really hope Sony go all out with PS5 hardware, give us a 14 tf monster because we deserve the reward.

Because the sales of Pro and X demonstrably evidence a mass market for more powerful hardware?

Sony's three best selling consoles are primarily, affordable and game focussed. Microsoft's best selling console was affordable and game focussed. These are not the only factors that matter but they do seem quite important for a game console

 

[goonergaz]

I think their view of revenue structure is vastly different this time around. PS+ adoption was very slim when PS4 launched, and now more than 1/3 of PS4 owners have PS+. Digital game revenue and its share of game sales are up drastically. All of these positively affect Sony’s bottom line.

I would argue that they’re in a better position to take a loss on the hardware, and not just because they’re the market leader and their parent company is healthy.

Also Sony were struggling last time round losing money, this time they are making money and in a strong position.

Because the sales of Pro and X demonstrably evidence a mass market for more powerful hardware?

Sony's three best selling consoles are primarily, affordable and game focussed. Microsoft's best selling console was affordable and game focussed. These are not the only factors that matter but they do seem quite important for a game console

Not that it's a fair comparison (because they were not launched together and as a new gen), but out of interest do we have pro Vs X figures? Last I heard 'launches aligned' X was ahead of pro.

 

[Deleted member 11852]

Not that it's a fair comparison (because they were not launched together and as a new gen), but out of interest do we have pro Vs X figures? Last I heard 'launches aligned' X was ahead of pro.

And neither are remotely close to outselling Slim and S. So uhhh.. yeah.