new EU energy targets...

[Graham]

This is a pretty big thing.. Just on BBC world

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/6433503.stm

Basically, the two major targets are:

• cut carbon dioxide emissions by 20% from 1990 levels by the year 2020
• renewable fuel use to 20% by 2020

Furthermore, if the US, China and India agree to similar plans - they will increase the target to 30%.

The EU have really put the ball in the US court now. The US stands to look very bad if they refuse to meet similar goals. Same for China, Australia, etc too.
Ironically there was an ad for chevron oil right after the story.

This is on top of restrictions that will come into effect soon, such as CO2 g/km of 120 for new vehicles - currently only the prius is *just* under this limit.

Very good news imo.

 

[_xxx_]

Well, at least something's happening. It'll be really hard to get there, though.

 

[Arwin]

This is a pretty big thing.. Just on BBC world

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/6433503.stm

Basically, the two major targets are:

• cut carbon dioxide emissions by 20% from 1990 levels by the year 2020
• renewable fuel use to 20% by 2020

Furthermore, if the US, China and India agree to similar plans - they will increase the target to 30%.

The EU have really put the ball in the US court now. The US stands to look very bad if they refuse to meet similar goals. Same for China, Australia, etc too.
Ironically there was an ad for chevron oil right after the story.

This is on top of restrictions that will come into effect soon, such as CO2 g/km of 120 for new vehicles - currently only the prius is *just* under this limit.

Very good news imo.

It's good news, but targets aren't interesting. The measures taken to achieve them are. The C02 g/km for instance is a nice step. I just happen to have ordered a Prius for lease. You can already see the actions of individual nations - such as Germany and Norway who have linked CO2 emissions to road tax - have an effect in this area, as one of the alternative cars I was evaluating already rated 130. This was a diesel car, the Skoda Fabia (Combi), which is currently extremely popular for leasing as it's rather cheap, but still mostly built out of Volkswagen parts.

Diesel engines have an air pollution problem in that they emit fine dust particles which cause lung cancer and astma. In our area, where diesel is extremely popular, this causes significant issues. But the first cars are starting to come with a filter standard, which takes care of this problem in a significant way.

Still, for me the Prius was great value. One of the things our government does is give cars like this one (currently I think just the Prius meets the requirements) a very significant tax break, which makes it a very attractive car for its price (comes with a lot of things standard, is very roomy, and yet very economical). Ironically, people here don't want an automatic - 90% of cars sold here are manuals, and automatics normally cost several thousands of euros more ... Just the opposite of countries like the US.

We'll probably see clean, hybrid diesels appear soon though.

 

[Gubbi]

While I think it's good to see the politicians finally taking action in curbing energy consumption, I don't think they do so because they all suddenly turned "green". Rather, it's economic and geo-political concerns that drive them

With global demand for oil rising at 2% per year, and global oil output falling 2% per year, assuming we're at peak oil output now or in the next few years (3-4), prices can only go up. For EU which is a massive net importer of oil, that would be absolutely disastrous to the collective trade balance.

On top of that it's highly problematic being dependent on the middle east with what is going on at the moment.

The rising oil price will of course naturally have a negative feedback effect to the fuel consumption of new cars. But it could be easily accelerated by the EU nations by agreeing to raise fuel (not just oil, any carbon emitting fuelsource) prices with 10% per year for 10 years. This would automatically make alternative fuel production technologies more attractive to the point where they could start to enjoy economy of scale price reductions. I'm primarily thinking about solar (and to a lesser extent) wind power here.

Cheers

 

[_xxx_]

I'd have gotten the Prius a while ago if it looked anything near acceptable. But since it loks as horrible as it does, I'll wait till there's something out there that looks a bit like a normal car.

 

[Arwin]

I'd have gotten the Prius a while ago if it looked anything near acceptable. But since it loks as horrible as it does, I'll wait till there's something out there that looks a bit like a normal car.

That's why there are so many car brands - people are very much used to being able to buy a car that matches their taste. This is the Prius as I'm going to get it, courtesy of Gran Turismo's photomode:

http://www.niwra.nl/gt4/prius1.jpg
http://www.niwra.nl/gt4/prius2.jpg

I personally actually like the way it looks since 2004. I hated how it looked before - if you compare those two, wow.

There's a Civic Hybrid by the way that looks a lot like a 'normal' car now, quite good looking - not unlike a Mazda6. It's not quite as green though, imho, and in terms of practical matters and performance I definitely prefer the Prius.

I can recommend anyone a test-drive by the way, if anything then just for kicks. I took one 2 years ago already, and another a few weeks ago to make sure my girlfriend found the Prius acceptable too.

 

[Blazkowicz]

On top of that it's highly problematic being dependent on the middle east with what is going on at the moment.

I'm more pissed off by the dependance to Russia (yet again the KGB just killed another journalist and we europeans lick Putin's ass). sure, there are political incentives to decrease the energetic dependance, as well as the economic ones.

 

[Rainbow Man]

They can proclaim whatever they like. Cut emissions 2000% below 1901's levels or whatever but they'll never actually DO IT.

All they have to do to look good is announce whatever shit they want and slap each others' backs and then it's right back to business as usual.

We've had kyoto for ages now and nobody's actually moving towars fulfilling theirt goals. Quite the opposite emissions are going UP all the time!

It'll be the same thing with this treaty as well.

Peace.

 

[Rune]

You do realise, this is a binding contract right?

 

[Rainbow Man]

Oh yes Rune I'm sure it is.

And so are the laws regulating EU member state budget deficit limits etc but I didn't see Germany and France getting fined after having exceeded them on multiple occations.



What are they gonna do really to enforce this "binding contract"? Force people not to drive cars? Will never fly and they know it. There's no way they'll rid industries' dependency on fossile feuls quickly enough. There aren't any alternatives to coal for things like steel mills and there are no alternative ways of generating power that will replace your own country's dependency on coal power plants either in the short timespan for that matter.

Let's face it. This is nothing but a farcical charade. Pretense frompoliticians so they can look good in the media and seem as if they actually care.

Peace.

 

[DuckThor Evil]

This is on top of restrictions that will come into effect soon, such as CO2 g/km of 120 for new vehicles - currently only the prius is *just* under this limit.

I don't see this happening for a very long time. What the hell is the automobile industry supposed to do? Only sell low powered hybrids?

 

[ShootMyMonkey]

I don't see this happening for a very long time. What the hell is the automobile industry supposed to do? Only sell low powered hybrids?

Doesn't necessarily have to be low-powered -- the main thing is to be able to feed a bigger electric motor. If you look at the talk about the new Prius, they speak of putting a larger gas engine, larger electric motor and higher capacity batteries, and still get about 80 mpg. Still, I don't see any miracles coming in battery technology that will enable us to achieve the same levels on a compact SUV or a family sedan for instance. That I see being more of a 50-year project.

EDIT : http://www.autoblog.com/2007/01/21/spy-shots-2008-prius/

This is on top of restrictions that will come into effect soon, such as CO2 g/km of 120 for new vehicles - currently only the prius is *just* under this limit.

When you say "soon", do you mean that the mandate will be issued soon or that the time constraint for actually achieving it is soon? And how soon?

I don't see that as remotely realistic if the current Prius is just barely achieving that. If the US were to follow suit, I'd say the chances of success are absolutely zero. For the EU, I'd say maybe 5%. Now on the other hand, if that mandate were more about carbon footprints, that's a different story, since setting up a biofuel-heavy infrastructure and the corresponding modifications on the mechanical side (which are already known) can get you there.

 

[Arwin]

I don't see this happening for a very long time. What the hell is the automobile industry supposed to do? Only sell low powered hybrids?

Actually the Prius isn't that low powered (115nbhp isn't that bad). But it also doesn't just barely make 120, as it's at 104, which is already well under that limit. A 1.9 liter turbo diesel as you find in a Skodia Fabia is actually already at 130, so pretty close to that 120 limit. I'm pretty sure that car manufacturors can get there ... They just need the incentive, and the EU (and several countries like Germany ahead of the EU as a whole) is giving it to them which is great. I think it is ridiculous that you can still buy cars that have an economy of 1 liter for 10km or less.

 

[DuckThor Evil]

Actually the Prius isn't that low powered (115nbhp isn't that bad). But it also doesn't just barely make 120, as it's at 104, which is already well under that limit. A 1.9 liter turbo diesel as you find in a Skodia Fabia is actually already at 130, so pretty close to that 120 limit. I'm pretty sure that car manufacturors can get there ... They just need the incentive, and the EU (and several countries like Germany ahead of the EU as a whole) is giving it to them which is great. I think it is ridiculous that you can still buy cars that have an economy of 1 liter for 10km or less.

Yes, but look at the car industy as a whole, there are many makers who only do luxury or sport cars and even makers like Mercedes and BMW among others have some serious adaptation to do. How do you make such a huge scale transition in fairly limited time, without completely destroying their line of business? When is this limit supposed to come into effect?

 

[_xxx_]

I'm pretty sure that car manufacturors can get there ... They just need the incentive, and the EU (and several countries like Germany ahead of the EU as a whole) is giving it to them which is great.

We can get there right now, but it would cost us arm and leg. The problem isn't in the tech, but the costs of implementing and mass producing it and these are just VERY far from viable now (and for the years to come). But we're all working on different hybrids, so expect to see those soon. BMW are already bringing them this year from what I've heard, expect the rest of the big guys to follow 1-2 years later.

 

[Arwin]

We can get there right now, but it would cost us arm and leg. The problem isn't in the tech, but the costs of implementing and mass producing it and these are just VERY far from viable now (and for the years to come). But we're all working on different hybrids, so expect to see those soon. BMW are already bringing them this year from what I've heard, expect the rest of the big guys to follow 1-2 years later.

It's a big matter of priorities, in my opinion. I know you work in the industry, but really, if Toyota managed to produce its first production Prius in 1997, then that says a lot. Over here, we've mostly been working on getting diesel engines up to speed, literally. But on the bright-side, the two technologies could become a great couple - especially if the fine dust particles issue is dealt with, because those are murderous little buggers.

 

[DuckThor Evil]

It's a big matter of priorities, in my opinion. I know you work in the industry, but really, if Toyota managed to produce its first production Prius in 1997, then that says a lot. Over here, we've mostly been working on getting diesel engines up to speed, literally. But on the bright-side, the two technologies could become a great couple - especially if the fine dust particles issue is dealt with, because those are murderous little buggers.

Yes, but Instead of having just one model in your lineup we are talking basically about the entire lineup atleast if the rest of the world will follow, which I doubt will happen anytime soon. Even if Toyota made one model back in 1997 it's still a farcy from only selling hybrids, besides I'm not even convinced that the hybrid cars are more economical/environmentally friendly when all things from manufacturing to the disposal of the car are accounted...

It would be nice to know what sort of transition period are we looking at here. It's going to be interesting to follow how this pans out, so far I have not seen any comments from the automobile industry on this matter...

 

[Arwin]

Yes, but Instead of having just one model in your lineup we are talking basically about the entire lineup atleast if the rest of the world will follow, which I doubt will happen anytime soon.

Sure, but a large part of the lineups, in terms of engine capacity at least, can - and in my humble opinion - should go, until they can be made within the environmental requirements.

Even if Toyota made one model back in 1997 it's still a farcy from only selling hybrids

Well, yes of course, but if in 1997 the EU had announced requirements like we are discussing now, then the picture would have looked completely differently and Toyota would have been able to benefit significantly more from that advantage than they are doing now. It's all cause and effect, and we need some more cause ...

besides I'm not even convinced that the hybrid cars are more economical/environmentally friendly when all things from manufacturing to the disposal of the car are accounted...

That's an old discussion. Toyota completely documented a (conservatively taken) 15 year life-cycle in terms of energy consumption, waste production and so on. You can read their Prius folder for details.

It would be nice to know what sort of transition period are we looking at here. It's going to be interesting to follow how this pans out, so far I have not seen any comments from the automobile industry on this matter...

I'm of the opinion that we started far to late on this already, so the sooner we act the better. As long as the restrictions are the same for all cars on the European market, then it's fair competition. I, for one, highly doubt it will even be all that hard to fix this problem. It just needs to be moved to the top of the to-do list, over better handling, space for bigger tires, a higher ride, 4 wheel drive, 100bhp more, even more grip, and so on.

 

[Rolf N]

I really don't believe the CO2 emission goals are achievable or even relevant (emission != budget). But on the whole I'm glad this kind of move has been made. You'd have to have witnessed the swing in media attitude over the last four or five years to fully appreciate what is going on here right now.
Gone are the days where you'd occasionally get someone babbling on about experimental hydrogen cars, or hand-wave at a farm of (butt-ugly, inefficient, unreliable waste of space POS) wind-wheels, or (at best) promote cars that drive on natural gas of all things.
All of a sudden we're back in the realm of reason and have public debate about farmed fuels. Last week I've seen a thirty-minute feature about Brazil's ethanol power economy and its role in a booming international ethanol market. I've seen features about low-energy construction, comparisons of warm-water collectors vs solar electricity, all this month.

We've finally rid ourselves of the red herrings and all the good stuff, the stuff that actually made sense all the time but was somehow relegated to a place under the rug, is in the public limelight. It's fantastic. The sky looks brighter.

 

[_xxx_]

It's a big matter of priorities, in my opinion. I know you work in the industry, but really, if Toyota managed to produce its first production Prius in 1997, then that says a lot.

You don't seriously expect to see a Mercedes C-Class with the engine/electro motor of a car like Prius? Because that's what the available room would have allowed until some very recent developments. The problem is, the final course is still not set firmly AFAIK, it still costs too much.

Also, I'm pretty confident that Toyota sells Prius way under the realistic price. See it as investments in advertizing.