NA February game sales down (+ early hardware numbers)
- Thread starter Titanio
- Start date
scooby_dooby
Legend
Well if not than Sony has nothign to worry about! But you're looking through some seriously rose-coloured glasses if you think that's going to be the case.Mr. Hanky said:
scooby_dooby
Legend
So you think supply will not increase at all over the next 9 months? Of course it will increase. To think it won't is being extremely unrealistic.
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That's why I said, "Yeah, hopefully..."
I have no idea, really, but they sure have not set a precedent for it, yet.
No need for you to be so sensitive over reality.
To review, I'm saying it could go either way. You are saying it can only go one way. So who's really wearing the rose-colored glasses?
I have no idea, really, but they sure have not set a precedent for it, yet.
No need for you to be so sensitive over reality.
To review, I'm saying it could go either way. You are saying it can only go one way. So who's really wearing the rose-colored glasses?
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scooby_dooby
Legend
No you just don't understand me. I'm saying that sony wants to generate a signifigant amount of hype this E3 to slow 360 sales over the next 6-9 months.
You came up with this weak argument: "That would be true if X360 supplies were freely available. Being that it is supply constrained and may continue to do so for much of 6 mos out, it really doesn't matter for Sony to generate hype or not. No doubt, it would be nice for the rest of us to get some new juicy tidbits on PS3, but it is hardly a requirement to ward off the "X360 wildfire"."
Noone said anything about a '360 wildfire'...
Your argument just doesn't have much basis in reality, your trying to say that since 360 is supply limited now (less than 3 months after launch) that it will remain supply limted in the next 9 months...
You're also trying to use that as an argument as to why Sony does not need to impress at E3, as if they have nothing to worry about since 360 has no supply, and they won't have any for the upcoming year...
I think Titanios original argument is much more sound, that E3 just doesn't have any major effect on consumer purchasing. That could be true. Your argument, that Sony doesn't need to impress because 360 is supply limited in march is just weak, they will not stay supply limited forever(which is basically the crux of your argument), and it's extremely likely that supply catches up to demand sometime between now and the end of thos year.
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You came up with this weak argument: "That would be true if X360 supplies were freely available. Being that it is supply constrained and may continue to do so for much of 6 mos out, it really doesn't matter for Sony to generate hype or not. No doubt, it would be nice for the rest of us to get some new juicy tidbits on PS3, but it is hardly a requirement to ward off the "X360 wildfire"."
Noone said anything about a '360 wildfire'...
Your argument just doesn't have much basis in reality, your trying to say that since 360 is supply limited now (less than 3 months after launch) that it will remain supply limted in the next 9 months...
You're also trying to use that as an argument as to why Sony does not need to impress at E3, as if they have nothing to worry about since 360 has no supply, and they won't have any for the upcoming year...
I think Titanios original argument is much more sound, that E3 just doesn't have any major effect on consumer purchasing. That could be true. Your argument, that Sony doesn't need to impress because 360 is supply limited in march is just weak, they will not stay supply limited forever(which is basically the crux of your argument), and it's extremely likely that supply catches up to demand sometime between now and the end of thos year.
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scooby_dooby said:
To clarify a little further, it may bear an influence among a certain market segment e.g. us, I just doubt it's wider influence. Even that said, though, I think far more influential is how a product comes to the market rather than the shape it is in a arbitrary points during its development (such as at a tradeshow like E3). The classic example I guess is Halo @ E3 vs Halo @ launch, and how it was received at those points.
Though I think most consumers are uneducated on products, E3 seems to be having more impact with wider media coverage of all things these days. Now even the BBC and Sunday Papers report on what's going on in the console world, and I know people who's knowledge of what's happening comes from these sources, inaccurate as they are. As this is a hardware generation, that happens more rarely than the World Cup, including a would be new world-beating processor, that happens more rarely than England winning the World Cup, extra coverage is bound to appear. I think a bad showing at E3 for Sony would have a degree of impact where once upon a time that would have been negligable.
scooby_dooby said:
It may remain supply limited. MAY. Like I said before, I leave it open for it to go either way- that's a safe bet. You are extremely hopeful of improvements to the situation to come. Maybe it happens, maybe not. If not, it will have been your own rose-colored glasses that lead you into that predicament. Remember that- 0 for 3 is no coincidence.
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scooby_dooby
Legend
Mr. Hanky said:
What do you think the odds are that it stays supply limited til the end of the year? Miniscule. The PS3 MAY not launch until 2007
...it MAY cost $1,000...anything is possible, but is it likely? Nope. I don't see why anyone would argue those scenarios because they are so extremely unlikely, as is the idea of the 360 remaining supply limited for this entire year.and 0-3 on what exactly? you don't know what you're talking about, I very rarely make hard predictions. Even in this case I'm saying it can go either way and it will be interesting to see if Sony trounces MS as badly as they did last year.
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scooby_dooby said:What do you think the odds are that it stays supply limited til the end of the year? Miniscule. The PS3 MAY not launch until 2007
and 0-3 on what exactly? you don't know what you're talking about, I very rarely make hard predictions. Even in this case I'm saying it can go either way and it will be interesting to see if Sony trounces MS as badly as they did last year.
To be fair, it could stay supply limited. However, if thats the case MS would be clicking their heels as it means theyre selling boatloads thorughout the year.
scooby_dooby
Legend
oh i'll bite...it seems MS is aiming for 500k-750k/month based on the fact they are still sticking to goal of 5million sold by june. They will have to reach that pretty quickly though to make the June deadline. So, I would say reaching 500-750k/month before june is a reasonable expectation.
now..what's your prediction?
btw, if they do make the June 5million mark, that means they must be creating at least ~600k/month since they were at 2.5million at the end of Feb. Which would mean at least another 3.6 million by the end of the year. If demand is so high they're still sold out I think MS will be extremely happy with nearly 9 million sold in 12months (for the record I don't believe 360 will have enough momentum to remain supply limited for the rest of this year, but much of that will depend on the E3 showing and whetehr sony steals the show IMO)
now..what's your prediction?
btw, if they do make the June 5million mark, that means they must be creating at least ~600k/month since they were at 2.5million at the end of Feb. Which would mean at least another 3.6 million by the end of the year. If demand is so high they're still sold out I think MS will be extremely happy with nearly 9 million sold in 12months (for the record I don't believe 360 will have enough momentum to remain supply limited for the rest of this year, but much of that will depend on the E3 showing and whetehr sony steals the show IMO)
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BenSkywalker
Regular
E3 is HUGE
E3 is of enormous importance to both Sony and MS this year- this is by far their most important E3 of this generation. Everything stated previously about E3 being aimed at the hardcore geeks and advancing the political side of the console war are absolutely correct- and that is precisely what both Sony and MS need right now.
The mainstream doesn't line up over night to spend $400 on a console when the doors open- they won't go to a midnight launch party for a game they have been looking forward too either- but there are several million hardcore gamers who will. MS only has a small fraction of those gamers here and an even smaller fraction in Europe(they appear to be DOA in Japan). They need to court the millions of die hards who influence the mainstream gamers into making a purchase. Right this moment- there isn't a compelling reason to own a XB360- the platform exclusive games are mediocre at best, the titles that show next gen style visuals are weak in gameplay and nothing has a mass market appeal. That is a serious problem for MS. What is the mainstream going to think about the system when even the die hards can't find much worth in it? Sure, Oblivion is around the corner- but then we go back to waiting for anything remotely decent looking to hit for some time. As a 360 owner I can say right now the platform, as a gaming console, pretty much sucks. MS needs to impress me or I will continue to tell every casual gamer I know the same thing- wait for the PS3. The system is too weak to worth reccomending right now. Of course it will get stronger- but there is no reason to encourage them to drop $400 now when they can decide to do that later if the situation improves prior to the launch of the PS3.
On the political end- MS needs the gaming publications to be focusing on all the great titles they have coming soon(as in before the PS3 launch hits) so they can establish themselves a library before going head to head with Sony. The way it looks right now MS is going to be obliterated this generation- despite their targets raw sales data is what matters and there they are weaker in all areas. It may be a supply issue in the US, but it isn't in Europe or Japan and no matter what the reason launching early only to run in to massive production issues is counterproductive in ways- you have lost the hype engine right when you need it the most. The only way to counter this is for MS to crush one out of the park at E3.
Sony needs to do less to look great this E3 relative to MS- all they need to focus on is showing a few real next gen looking titles and then announce all of the franchises they have looming on the horizon barring a killer showing from MS. Even if MS does have a killer showing Sony only needs to appear strong to make MS look bad. They have been on the market a year and that's all they can do? Sony does need to have playable games on the show floor, and playing well, or people will start to question if they can hit their launch date(that is worst case scenario for Sony). As far as the mainstream goes Sony doesn't need the hardcore to promote it nearly as much- it has BluRay which MS can't match.
As of right now the mindset of the hardcore is still up in the air. Sony has the built in advantage as they already have the faith of most of the loyal. MS needs to improve a staggering amount- it is shocking how badly they have been doing to date. Anyone that has known me long enough knows my general distaste for Sony, I was a strong backer of the XBox(although I'm quite partial to Nintendo titles)- but right now it looks like the 360 is in for a relatively poor life unless MS gets things going quickly. Sony is coming and MS has shown that they aren't close to ready to date.
E3 is of enormous importance to both Sony and MS this year- this is by far their most important E3 of this generation. Everything stated previously about E3 being aimed at the hardcore geeks and advancing the political side of the console war are absolutely correct- and that is precisely what both Sony and MS need right now.
The mainstream doesn't line up over night to spend $400 on a console when the doors open- they won't go to a midnight launch party for a game they have been looking forward too either- but there are several million hardcore gamers who will. MS only has a small fraction of those gamers here and an even smaller fraction in Europe(they appear to be DOA in Japan). They need to court the millions of die hards who influence the mainstream gamers into making a purchase. Right this moment- there isn't a compelling reason to own a XB360- the platform exclusive games are mediocre at best, the titles that show next gen style visuals are weak in gameplay and nothing has a mass market appeal. That is a serious problem for MS. What is the mainstream going to think about the system when even the die hards can't find much worth in it? Sure, Oblivion is around the corner- but then we go back to waiting for anything remotely decent looking to hit for some time. As a 360 owner I can say right now the platform, as a gaming console, pretty much sucks. MS needs to impress me or I will continue to tell every casual gamer I know the same thing- wait for the PS3. The system is too weak to worth reccomending right now. Of course it will get stronger- but there is no reason to encourage them to drop $400 now when they can decide to do that later if the situation improves prior to the launch of the PS3.
On the political end- MS needs the gaming publications to be focusing on all the great titles they have coming soon(as in before the PS3 launch hits) so they can establish themselves a library before going head to head with Sony. The way it looks right now MS is going to be obliterated this generation- despite their targets raw sales data is what matters and there they are weaker in all areas. It may be a supply issue in the US, but it isn't in Europe or Japan and no matter what the reason launching early only to run in to massive production issues is counterproductive in ways- you have lost the hype engine right when you need it the most. The only way to counter this is for MS to crush one out of the park at E3.
Sony needs to do less to look great this E3 relative to MS- all they need to focus on is showing a few real next gen looking titles and then announce all of the franchises they have looming on the horizon barring a killer showing from MS. Even if MS does have a killer showing Sony only needs to appear strong to make MS look bad. They have been on the market a year and that's all they can do? Sony does need to have playable games on the show floor, and playing well, or people will start to question if they can hit their launch date(that is worst case scenario for Sony). As far as the mainstream goes Sony doesn't need the hardcore to promote it nearly as much- it has BluRay which MS can't match.
As of right now the mindset of the hardcore is still up in the air. Sony has the built in advantage as they already have the faith of most of the loyal. MS needs to improve a staggering amount- it is shocking how badly they have been doing to date. Anyone that has known me long enough knows my general distaste for Sony, I was a strong backer of the XBox(although I'm quite partial to Nintendo titles)- but right now it looks like the 360 is in for a relatively poor life unless MS gets things going quickly. Sony is coming and MS has shown that they aren't close to ready to date.
I thought last E3 was going to be the E3 to end all E3's. 3 next-gen consoles getting their unveiling in a viscious battle for media supremacy...
MS showed rough demos on alpha kit and really bad 'hip 'n' trendy' attitudes.
Sony showed some impressive demos, and that was that. PS3 was forgotten.
Nintendo revealed their control to some surprise, and that was that.
What should have been, wasn't. Not that this rant has any bearing on anything. I guess it's this E3 that will end all E3s...
MS showed rough demos on alpha kit and really bad 'hip 'n' trendy' attitudes.
Sony showed some impressive demos, and that was that. PS3 was forgotten.
Nintendo revealed their control to some surprise, and that was that.
What should have been, wasn't. Not that this rant has any bearing on anything. I guess it's this E3 that will end all E3s...
Oh yeah. It was even more of a damp squib of a show than I remember. That was the 'PSP killing GB2' certain contingents were expecting...
A small update on 360 numbers - Ubisoft reckons to date MS has sold through crica 1,660,000 in the US and Europe. NPD's figure for the US is just over 1m, so that would leave ~600k sold in Europe. That's kind of surprising to me, I had thought Europe was keeping pace a little better with the US than that. I know supply has normalised here to a large degree compared to the US (i.e. demand has been softer - though I didn't think to this degree), but MS at one point was even talking about prioritising shipments to Europe.
Johnny Awesome
Veteran
I think once the channel in the US is refilled with X360 units sales will be a little soft for MS. The real test is going to be during the holidays when Sony can only put about 1 millon PS3s in the US market. Will the gamers that can't find one pick up 2 million X360s instead? I think the answer to that will rest with the games. If PS3 launch games don't look/play better than the likes of Gears of War, Crackdown, Mass Effect, and Too Human, then MS has a very good shot at staying ahead through 2007. Then they can drop price to $199 at E3 2007.
It will boil down to games. It always has.
You can't ignore the fact that MS will show Halo 3 at E3 in video form. Millions of gamers want to play Halo 3 and that will generate a lot of hype as long as there are some great games to fill in the gap between now and its release.
It will boil down to games. It always has.
You can't ignore the fact that MS will show Halo 3 at E3 in video form. Millions of gamers want to play Halo 3 and that will generate a lot of hype as long as there are some great games to fill in the gap between now and its release.