NA February game sales down (+ early hardware numbers)

[pc999]

This may be because of the end of the Xbox, still high price of XB360 and the antecipation of PS3/Rev, and not a sign of decline of games sales.

 

[msia2k75]

160,000 per month just in N.A. is pretty good, isn't it?

Depending on the circumstances... It's OK but not pretty good. Microsoft needs to do more if they really want to take a decent lead before PS3 arrival. Oh, btw, it's only in the US.

 

[Asher]

I've never beleived it was entirely a supply issue but I won't go their again.

I don't see how it can't be a supply issue when the few Xbox 360s that make it to retail are sold out pretty instantly...

All of the local flyers for Best Buy, etc. only advertise Xbox 360 games and accessories, they don't say they have any consoles for sale either.

 

[Nicked]

160,000 per month just in N.A. is pretty good, isn't it?

The original Xbox done ~140k in its first February (2001), but it had already done 1.5M beforehand - Xbox360 is just at 1 million inc. February.

It 2003/2004/2005 the Xbox achieved ~200k for February. So no, not so good.

But we have to be mindful the PS2 only did 233k in its first February then 550k in March...maybe the X360 will have the same fortune. Typically March sales are around the same or less than February but GRAW+Oblivion will move some units - especially with the limited shortage ending

This may be because of the end of the Xbox, still high price of XB360 and the antecipation of PS3/Rev, and not a sign of decline of games sales.

Xbox (1) is dead - as dead as the GC, software sales are down 13%. It was dead the moment MS stopped supporting it. Total focus on X360 now.

 

[Nicked]

All numbers are rounded NPD numbers (Gamespot & mine).

 

[dukmahsik]

dang they really need to up supply then (360)

 

[Brimstone]

But we have to be mindful the PS2 only did 233k in its first February then 550k in March...maybe the X360 will have the same fortune. Typically March sales are around the same or less than February but GRAW+Oblivion will move some units - especially with the limited shortage ending

Your logic makes no sense. The manufacturing start dates of PS2 and XB360 are totaly different. PS2 manufacturing production started somtime before it's March retail release in Japan, so by February of the next year it had almost a full year to ramp production, so Sony could supply plenty of PS2's to retail.

The 360 hasn't had 12 months of manufacturing production by February 2006. Closer to six months if that.

 

[Titanio]

Your logic makes no sense. The manufacturing start dates of PS2 and XB360 are totaly different. PS2 manufacturing production started somtime before it's March retail release in Japan, so by February of the next year it had almost a full year to ramp production, so Sony could supply plenty of PS2's to retail.

The 360 hasn't had 12 months of manufacturing production by February 2006. Closer to six months if that.

I'm not sure if we're all talking about the same point anymore, but if we're talking about what would be a "good" March shipment for 360 vs PS2's early days, PS2 shipped ~460k consoles in its fourth month (from the Japanese launch). Which isn't too far off the 550k sold in the US in the first March after its US launch anyway. Of course, MS has to actively ship to two territories at least, but one could assume US will get a larger share of any March shipment. So I don't know..maybe we should expect 300-350k, if hoping for a relatively decent shipment (vs the PS2 experience)?

 

[Nicked]

Your logic makes no sense. The manufacturing start dates of PS2 and XB360 are totaly different. PS2 manufacturing production started somtime before it's March retail release in Japan, so by February of the next year it had almost a full year to ramp production, so Sony could supply plenty of PS2's to retail.

Actually, making comparisons to PS2 JPN launch leads to much the same conclusion - with the exceptionMS have launched in more regions - but X360 is in ready supply in EU - and they still haven't 'sold' (through tracked figures) their earlier shipment figures. With the numbers they plan on shipping by June if they can't put 500k on shelves in March thats a bad sign.

Also the comparison can be made with the original Xbox and it still isn't looking great.

The 360 hasn't had 12 months of manufacturing production by February 2006. Closer to six months if that.

Boxes were being put together in August, some components started before that. 6months is correct.

 

[speng]

The way the PS2 is selling there is no reason for Sony to announce the availability and pricing of the PS3 until the very last minute. I'm not sure how sales would drop after the an announcement.

Speng.

 

[Powderkeg]

Actually, making comparisons to PS2 JPN launch leads to much the same conclusion - with the exceptionMS have launched in more regions - but X360 is in ready supply in EU - and they still haven't 'sold' (through tracked figures) their earlier shipment figures. With the numbers they plan on shipping by June if they can't put 500k on shelves in March thats a bad sign.

I thought the fact that MS brought a 3rd production facility online late last February was common knowledge at this point. Thus, there is no logical reason to believe they would produce the same in March and future months as they would in February and previous months, since their production capacity has increased by 33%.

Also the comparison can be made with the original Xbox and it still isn't looking great.

I think some of you guys have an altered sense of reality.

In 2002 MS only sold 3.9 million units world-wide for the entire year. MS is on pace to sell over 8 million 360's this year, more than double what the original Xbox sold.

And iirc, the original Xbox struggled to break 100,000 units sold in a month in the US through most of 2002.

 

[Nicked]

I thought the fact that MS brought a 3rd production facility online late last February was common knowledge at this point. Thus, there is no logical reason to believe they would produce the same in March and future months as they would in February and previous months, since their production capacity has increased by 33%.

February 'supply' decreased over January, whats the explanation for that?

I think some of you guys have an altered sense of reality.

Some people sure do, indeed.

IIn 2002 MS only sold 3.9 million units world-wide for the entire year.

So it only did 700k in Europe+Asia+Australia/NZ+Canada combined? Interesting, doubtful.
Edit (Microsoft last week reported that it had sold 3.9 million Xbox units worldwide during its 2002 fiscal year, which ended June 30 - Link - knew it sounded bogus)

IMS is on pace to sell over 8 million 360's this year, more than double what the original Xbox sold.

Unlikely, I would love to see your rationale behind this.

IMO - with a pricedrop, more likely but still uncertain.

And iirc, the original Xbox struggled to break 100,000 units sold in a month in the US through most of 2002.

Once it fell below 100k, most of the time it was closer to 200k.

 

[expletive]

February 'supply' decreased over January, whats the explanation for that?

Read Mmkay's post on the first page, seems a plausible explanation.

Unlikely, I would love to see your rationale behind this.

IMO - with a pricedrop, more likely but still uncertain.

All we can go on is MS' projections of 5 million by June. If those numbers are reached, then another 3 million by year's end should quite attainable.

 

[Nicked]

Read Mmkay's post on the first page, seems a plausible explanation.

That would mean inconsistent shipping numbers, which isn't a good thing. It means units are either being held back, supply output fell or shipping times increased.

Thinking about it, its more likely due to regional launches in Asia. You wouldn't need much more than 100k, but thats about the deficit.

All we can go on is MS' projections of 5 million by June. If those numbers are reached, then another 3 million by year's end should quite attainable.

Oh shipping - Xbox shipped ~8M units in its first year anyway, IIRC.

Anyway, I think history will most likely repeat itself.

 

[expletive]

That would mean inconsistent shipping numbers, which isn't a good thing. It means units are either being held back, supply output fell or shipping times increased.

Thinking about it, its more likely due to regional launches in Asia. You wouldn't need much more than 100k, but thats about the deficit.

I don know why it needs to mean anything more than his explanation, which was a delay in one shipment causing a skew in the month by month numbers. The Asia launch is certainly another possibility.

Oh shipping - Xbox shipped ~8M units in its first year anyway, IIRC.

Anyway, I think history will most likely repeat itself.

Well if MS cant beat the Xbox in 1st year shipments, for anything other than supply problems, then they wasted every lesson they should have learned last time around.

Personally, I dont see how they cant top the Xbox sales. Starting from zero last gen as opposed to the 360 platform this gen? Seems pretty straightforward, I expect theyll beat 8 million by a worthwhile # come Jan 2007.

 

[scooby_dooby]

That would mean inconsistent shipping numbers, which isn't a good thing. It means units are either being held back, supply output fell or shipping times increased.

Well there's been strong rumours that MS is doing some sort or relaunch in march(or is it april?), so they may be stockpiling units so they can send them out en masse, and kick the advertising into high gear. Not so much a relaunch as a mass replenishment combined with increased marketing. Just speculation though, based on alot of stores showing the same dates for big shipments.

These #'s are definately strange, something really doesn't gel. We have 1.5 million sold by dec, then like 3 weeks ago an MS exec said 2.5million shipped. So 1million shipped in Jan/Feb but only 160k sell through in Feb for the US? That's not adding up at all...either the NPD #'s are inaccurate, MS is fudging their numbers, or units are being held back and/or heavily diverted to europe.

 

[tema]

Well there\\\'s been strong rumours that MS is doing some sort or relaunch in march(or is it april?), so they may be stockpiling units so they can send them out en masse, and kick the advertising into high gear. Not so much a relaunch as a mass replenishment combined with increased marketing. Just speculation though, based on alot of stores showing the same dates for big shipments.

These #s are definately strange, something really doesnt gel. We have 1.5 million sold by dec, then like 3 weeks ago an MS exec said 2.5million shipped. So 1million shipped in Jan/Feb but only 160k sell through in Feb for the US? Thats not adding up at all...either the NPD #s are inaccurate, MS is fudging their numbers, or units are being held back and/or heavily diverted to europe.

The hype has died down after MS fudged and rushed the launch. The NDP numbers are laughably poor. I doubt a relaunch will get people onboard. They will need AAA exclusive games.

Will developers bite after MS fudged up and flip-aflopping? I doubt it. They had their chance but the ball is firmly back at Sony and Nintendo courts.

 

[superguy]

It 2003/2004/2005 the Xbox achieved ~200k for February. So no, not so good.

People act like these low numbers aren't caused by a shortage or something.

 

[superguy]

They will need AAA exclusive games.

Not really. All they need is an abscence of competition to extend their already burgeoning
lead.

Then they just need either lower priced or more powerful than PS3. One or both seems pretty likely.

 

[pipo]

The hype has died down after MS fudged and rushed the launch. The NDP numbers are laughably poor. I doubt a relaunch will get people onboard. They will need AAA exclusive games.

Will developers bite after MS fudged up and flip-aflopping? I doubt it. They had their chance but the ball is firmly back at Sony and Nintendo courts.

That smiley was the best part of your post.