MS's business future, particuarly in mobile space *spawn

[wco81]

Actually, Android took off around the same time of the first Droid on Verizon. Apple made a lot of money with AT&T exclusivity but that allowed Google to cut a deal with Verizon and they started BOGO deals and got a lot of phones out there.

From then on, the lower costs, especially of unsubsidized phones, took off in Europe and Asia. Android phones were good enough for the people who didn't pay attention to specs. for hundreds less than iPhones.

Android itself pivoted quickly. Initially the first Android phones were Blackberry clones, with hardware keyboards. As soon as iPhone was introduced, Google was able to change direction and come out with multitouch phones.

MS didn't pivot as fast, taking about another two years.

Tough thing for MS is that Android has the OEM distribution model that they want. Samsung and HTC may make Windows Phones but they make most of their money on Android phones and that's not likely to ever change. They may continue to make token Windows Phones but unless they ship in major volumes, it would be tough for MS alone to raise WP share.

 

[tuna]

MS would make a lot more money NOW if they ditched the XBox, Phones, Bing and tablets. But then they ditch a possible future as well.

 

[tuna]

No manufacturer wants to use Windows Phone because it is impossible to innovate on the HW. Your locked into whatever MS decides.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

And there's Firefox OS...

 

[wco81]

Well Samsung is the one phone manufacturer besides Apple which is making any real money.

What is their incentive to switch to Windows Phone? Unless they can ramp up 50 million WP in addition to the 50 million Android phones they're making.

If they produced that much, is there any guarantee that they'd be able to sell all of them or would they be left with a lot of unsold inventory?

 

[joker454]

This. I live in the land of hippies and hipsters, California, USA. This is pretty much Apple's main market and a few years back it was all iPhone and iPad and only a few of us tech-inclined folks were buying Android products. Even the IT staff had started replacing their blackberries with iPhones.

Fast forward to today, and the culture has shifted. Its almost as if the iPhone is the AOL of smart phones. Nice, easily accessible, but once most people get the hang of the features they realize they can do more for a lot less on an Android phone.

It's interesting you mention that as I've seen the same thing with the girls I book here in LA. I've book hundreds of them, and years ago 99% of them all rocked iPhones. I've seen the dramatic shift as well as they all now use Android phones by far.

 

[wco81]

Book girls?

And only hippies are buying iPhones?

Didn't know there were that many hippies left or that they bought any kind of electronic toys.

 

[blakjedi]

Well Samsung is the one phone manufacturer besides Apple which is making any real money.

What is their incentive to switch to Windows Phone? Unless they can ramp up 50 million WP in addition to the 50 million Android phones they're making.

If they produced that much, is there any guarantee that they'd be able to sell all of them or would they be left with a lot of unsold inventory?

in markets outside of the US WP8 is actually doing pretty well. China and Europe moreso than the US particularly the UK they are doing very well at a 10% adoption rate.. The unification of APIs is slowly but surely happening... 8.1 and Blue are moving the entire API model toward the usability and flexibility of WinRT and the stability of Win32. Its only a matter of time before MS has only ONE os across all platforms as opposed to just the underpinnings of the os dispersed across certain devices.

MS is also making serious strides in the Services market. Leveraging Azure across Xbox and windows phone properties, Leveraging Bing and Skype into everything they sell. Hell even Cortana looks good... and will give Google Now a run for its money especially considering the social context and information Bing/Sartori provides through the Facebook hookup.

MS competes well with Apple, Google, Sony, and Oracle in the categories in which those companies are the dominant players. And it makes more money every year than it did before especially considering the multibillion dollar acquisitions over the last several years... That isn't half bad.

 

[Dave Baumann]

No manufacturer wants to use Windows Phone because it is impossible to innovate on the HW. Your locked into whatever MS decides.

While the CPU is Qualcomm centric at the moment, Nokia have been doing a good job of providing differentiated handsets along with their own Apps.

What is their incentive to switch to Windows Phone? Unless they can ramp up 50 million WP in addition to the 50 million Android phones they're making.

Not having to pay the $10-$15 IP license fee to MS per Android handset...?

 

[wco81]

While the CPU is Qualcomm centric at the moment, Nokia have been doing a good job of providing differentiated handsets along with their own Apps.


Not having to pay the $10-$15 IP license fee to MS per Android handset...?

But Samsung doesn't seem to be pushing their WP products that much.

Not putting out multiple SKUs or doing as much marketing.

Is their WP phone comparable to their S4 and Note II or III products?

Are they advertising WP as much?

Given their volumes, you would think they'd be motivated to try to go to WP, through the WP licenses aren't going to be free either, are they?

How much are they paying for the WP8 licenses on the phones they do ship?

 

[wco81]

Last I heard, Samsung may use Tizen on some TVs but not on their phones. With the amount of money they're making on their Android phones, there's little incentive for them to risk migrating to other platforms, unless Google starts taking away share with Motorola and Nexus devices and giving them advantages.

I hadn't heard of Cortona but doesn't sound that different from Siri and Google Now.

 

[DrJay24]

I hadn't heard of Cortona but doesn't sound that different from Siri and Google Now.

Well as soon as Apple or Google have something, MS is not far behind (well maybe 1-2 years).

 

[bkilian]

Well as soon as Apple or Google have something, MS is not far behind (well maybe 1-2 years).

Other way around. Tellme was working and doing the stuff Siri does a year before apple even announced Siri. Apple have this uncanny ability to watch a competitor launch something, improve it, launch their version, and then convince everyone they invented it in the first place...

 

[wco81]

I don't know if they ever claimed that. They didn't deny they bought the tech or the company.

What may be different or new is tying it to their infrastructure, so presumably the voice recognition and NLP improves as use by millions of people adds to the dataset.

I don't think they claim to have invented VR or NLP either. Just this implementation of an "agent" which is not a new concept.

 

[bkilian]

I don't know if they ever claimed that. They didn't deny they bought the tech or the company.

What may be different or new is tying it to their infrastructure, so presumably the voice recognition and NLP improves as use by millions of people adds to the dataset.

I don't think they claim to have invented VR or NLP either. Just this implementation of an "agent" which is not a new concept.

That's the best part. They don't _tell_ anyone they invented it. They just _imply_ it.

"For decades, technologists have teased us with this dream that you'll be able to talk to technology and it'll do things for us … but it never comes true"
"I've been in the AI field for a long time, and this still blows me away"
"The ability to understand what you mean, and act on it, that's the breakthrough with Siri"
"It completely changes the way you think about what a phone can do for you"

They are masters at manipulating public opinion. Nothing they said was untrue, but together it gave the impression that no one had made anything even close, despite TellMe, and Ford Sync doing most of what Siri can do.

 

[Rangers]

MS would make a lot more money NOW if they ditched the XBox, Phones, Bing and tablets. But then they ditch a possible future as well.

Not the Xbox, because it's profitable.

 

[Rangers]

No manufacturer wants to use Windows Phone because it is impossible to innovate on the HW. Your locked into whatever MS decides.

Last I saw MS has Nokia, and Samsung, HTC, and they just recently acquired support by Huawei which is huge in the huge market of China.

 

[BoardBonobo]

Last I saw MS has Nokia, and Samsung, HTC, and they just recently acquired support by Huawei which is huge in the huge market of China.

But all of those, with the exception of Nokia, have successful mobile strategies based on the Android platform (which is already big, albeit in a slightly different form!, in china). Signing up as MS partners means they can produce a token product and , potentially, reap the financial benefits of such a partner program; reduced fees etc.

The only reason Nokia never got a successful foothold in the Android market was through their obstinate pursuit of their own OS. By the time they saw reason it was too late and MS was standing outside the door with a billion dollar cheque wanting Nokia to be the token bit player with windows phone. And now they are part of the collective. Didn't see that one coming...

 

[wco81]

That's the best part. They don't _tell_ anyone they invented it. They just _imply_ it.

They are masters at manipulating public opinion. Nothing they said was untrue, but together it gave the impression that no one had made anything even close, despite TellMe, and Ford Sync doing most of what Siri can do.

But they're not unique. All these companies have marketing depts ...

 

[TrungGap]

Other way around. Tellme was working and doing the stuff Siri does a year before apple even announced Siri. Apple have this uncanny ability to watch a competitor launch something, improve it, launch their version, and then convince everyone they invented it in the first place...

Yeah, I remember my Motorola Windows mobile 6.5 phone...I spoke into it, saying find Pho restraurants...and it actually understood Pho correctly and found me all the Pho restraurants nearby me. I was totally amazed with that back then...how time flies...Damn, now I'm feeling old.