Microsoft HoloLens [Virtual Reality, Augmented Reality, Holograms]

[Shifty Geezer]

Why does the world have to be mapped?

I mean all the physical locations and features people are wanting live feeds on. Take the pipe example. The headset will need to know what pipe you're looking at and what sensor data to fetch and display. That'll require people to program that data. Or the wiring example mentioned earlier. You'd need to program the system which wires go where for it to be able to track them through the walls to overlay to an engineer, or to overlay tags on. And you'd need the visual recognition to be faultless. If the computer-vision can't tell the difference between the red wire and the brown wire in all lighting conditions, it won't get the labels right. It'd be great to don a headset when doing DIY and have the system overlay the pipes and cables in your walls so you don't hit them, but it'll need to be told where exactly those pipes and wires are, and it'll need to be able to position them exactly even with virtually zero reference points (close to a blank wall, there are no visual cues as to where in the world you're looking).

Every bit of AR data relating to one's position and view needs to be mapped. In the wider world, that's done by users marking restaurants and points of interest. At the small scale though, it'll need someone's direct input. For some cases, like the industrial piping, QR codes would be very reliable and the headset would just provide a reading from the control centre for that QR code. But then that doesn't really warrant a headset.

 

[wco81]

Yeah I'm skeptical of anyone doing that kind of micro mapping of interiors.

It would be helpful when you open the wall plate to show which is ground and which is power but you can get that info. off a Youtube video. If someone goes to the trouble to make a Hololens-compatible content for it, he's likely going to want to get paid. So it would be free vs. paid instructions.

Google is trying to map the interiors of some famous buildings but it's strictly floor plans, nothing as detailed as plumbing within a particular building. I don't know that people need to go through that extent to map/tag the world, especially at the micro level.

I'm just happy when I go to some unfamiliar place if Google Street View gave me a pretty representative rendering of what I should expect.

 

[Scott_Arm]

Item detection is definitely a part of it that will be difficult, if near impossible. Take something as simple as a cup. There are a huge number of shapes and sizes.

As for the wiring demo, I think the demo was a live chat over Skype with an electrician who told you what to do. THey were able to draw arrows and markers on a tablet showing a video feed from your goggles, to aid in their instruction. I don't think that would require anything to be mapped out ahead of time.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

The wiring suggestion was someone here's (eastmen?). The live demo was something else and very useful, moreso than a tablet based consultation because the expert can interact from exactly your POV. It doesn't get clearer than that. You can even have the expert's hands projected where you should place yours. That's way better than looking at a screen, remembering specific details, and then looking away and mapping what you saw on screen with what's in front of you.

That's a very niche functionality though, at least until the tech is ridiculously low-priced. How many times does a person look up how to do something on the net in a year? Is that worth hundreds of dollars to make that reference a bit clearer? I don't imagine so. You could have some special-case content, like Hayes producing Car Manuals in Hololens format for enthusiasts who are always in among their beloved motor's engine, but for Joe Mainstream, I don't think there's value. Not even Jonny White-collar. Definitely yes for the police though, in a sci-fi style facial recognition and info overlay! It'd make the dark glasses more justifiable.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

Not always.

The only place to get hololens software is through presumably through the windows 10 app store built into the device. So ms can break even or take a hit on the hardware to make money thorugh software sales. We've seen it time and time again.

The retail price in the usa for a note 4 is $700 but with a contract I can get it for $300 which is only $40 more than the bom tear down.

The Kinect 2 has BOM tear downs at $75 or so. They sell it for double the price stand alone but that's because it has very little software in which to make back money on.

The contract price might be 300 but Samsung is still getting close to 700 USD (minus retailer margin for unlocked phone) for the phone. It's just that instead of paying Samsung that extra cash, they are paying the phone company who are then paying Samsung. There is no subsidy here. It's more like credit.

This also doesn't factor in that the BOM for Hololens is going to be significantly more than the Note 4. Virtually everything in the Note 4 benefits from gigantic economies of scale. Something that many components in the HoloLens will not benefit from.

- Common LCD versus Custom light projection unit + Custom lenses.
- At most 2 common camera modules versus multiple (more than 6) custom sensors which include cameras, depth sensors, motion trackers, etc.
- A common CPU versus A common CPU + potentially a discrete GPU + custom HPU.
- 1-2 GB of RAM versus likely 4-8 GB of RAM.
- Relatively simple case design versus relatively complex case design (HMD, etc.) with more parts and more complex assembly.
- etc...

Everything that is custom is going to cost multiple times more than anything that is common in the above due to economies of scale.

Regards,
SB

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Everything that is custom is going to cost multiple times more than anything that is common in the above due to economies of scale.

I agree with you, save I think some of your observations will be less custom/more commodity. eg. the motion trackers and cameras in Hololens probably aren't much different than a phone's (other than 3D ones, which might even start making an appearance in mobiles. Would be awesome if they did!). Maybe MS need higher end MEMS, but there are lots of integrate motion ICs now. The custom chip in Hololens probably doesn't cost more to fabricate for having custom HPU/GPU (assuming all integrated onto a SOC, I think a given for a mobile/wearable device) than the same silicon for a smaller market. And when this thing launches, 4 GBs is probably going to be a normal amount of RAM. But yes, economies of scale for Samsung and mobiles will give them a massive pricing advantage, and there are plenty of unknowns for Hololens which I doubt are cheap.

 

[eastmen]

The contract price might be 300 but Samsung is still getting close to 700 USD (minus retailer margin for unlocked phone) for the phone. It's just that instead of paying Samsung that extra cash, they are paying the phone company who are then paying Samsung. There is no subsidy here. It's more like credit.

This also doesn't factor in that the BOM for Hololens is going to be significantly more than the Note 4. Virtually everything in the Note 4 benefits from gigantic economies of scale. Something that many components in the HoloLens will not benefit from.

- Common LCD versus Custom light projection unit + Custom lenses.
This is about the only thing I will agree with

- At most 2 common camera modules versus multiple (more than 6) custom sensors which include cameras, depth sensors, motion trackers, etc.
These are already produced at scale. The Kinect uses them and ms had shipped at least 5m of the new Kinect.
You can see the camera's on both sides of the head set here http://www.shooter-szene.de/content/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/microsoft_hololens.jpg

- A common CPU versus A common CPU + potentially a discrete GPU + custom HPU.
The rumbling is that its using cherry trail which is the successor of bay trail an apu that exists in $80 windows tablets

- 1-2 GB of RAM versus likely 4-8 GB of RAM.
The note 4 has 3 gigs of ram. Ram is dirt cheap the bom shows that 3 gigs costing $10 so you'd be right between the 4-8GB at $20 with 6 gigs of ram

- Relatively simple case design versus relatively complex case design (HMD, etc.) with more parts and more complex assembly.
These would start to become mass produced and prices will go down.
- etc...

Everything that is custom is going to cost multiple times more than anything that is common in the above due to economies of scale.

Regards,
SB

I disagree with how much is going to be custom. I'm not even sure that the HPU will be custom and not simply an arm coprocessor and some of the tech will have been in other hardware such as the Kinect. The only real custom thing I can see if the optics.

This was originaly designed to be a gaming device. How many successful $1k gaming devices can you think of ?

 

[wco81]

Other big part of it is going to be advertising.

If they cut multimillion dollar deals like they did with Surface and the NFL (even though teams and players were already used to using iPads for playbook) and advertise on TV heavily, then costs go up.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

This was originaly designed to be a gaming device. How many successful $1k gaming devices can you think of ?

They may have set out to create a gaming device, but found that the requirements to pull of a good enough experience in the directions they were headed pushed up the cost. The intention perhaps was to wait on the tech until it came down to something affordable before releasing, but Nadella saw potential in other markets willing to pay more.

Just one hypothetical scenario to show that intentions aren't indicative of final pricing. Good business goes where the money is.

 

[Prophecy2k]

Every bit of AR data relating to one's position and view needs to be mapped. In the wider world, that's done by users marking restaurants and points of interest. At the small scale though, it'll need someone's direct input. For some cases, like the industrial piping, QR codes would be very reliable and the headset would just provide a reading from the control centre for that QR code. But then that doesn't really warrant a headset.

Depeneding on the hazardous area classification of the process area in question, it sure does. If the plant is operating, you wouldn't be able to take a mobile phone on-site. Since the Hololens likely wouldn't have any radio transmitter, it should be easy for MS to make one that is rated for all hazardous area classifications. That would be an immediate boon to its usefulness in this type of application.

You also shouldn't underestimate the value of this being a hands-free device also. It could be fashioned as a rated safety helmet with integrated safety gogles for eye-protection. The additional functionality that the Hololens then provides would means the mainetance guy/site engineer would be able to climb up and down structure and ladders on the side of distillation columns, and have his hands free for all his other working and safety related needs.

We're talking about a working environment where safety is the number one most critical factor. So the mere fact of being able to have hands free in the operation of the device, means that it is many times more inherently safe than the conventional approach.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Since the Hololens likely wouldn't have any radio transmitter..

It'll have Wifi for sure, and quite possibly mobile connections for overlaying comms. Having to use a mobile alongside a headset is total overkill!

it should be easy for MS to make one that is rated for all hazardous area classifications. That would be an immediate boon to its usefulness in this type of application.

Yes, but you're talking niche. I've already acknowledged Hololens has niche values.

You also shouldn't underestimate the value of this being a hands-free device also. It could be fashioned as a rated safety helmet with integrated safety gogles for eye-protection. The additional functionality that the Hololens then provides would means the mainetance guy/site engineer would be able to climb up and down structure and ladders on the side of distillation columns, and have his hands free for all his other working and safety related needs.

Sure, but again, that's a cost to enable the feature. The number of scenarios where the benefits are going to outweigh the costs are going to be limited, depending on the cost.

I have not said Hololens is useless/worthless. I have said that it won't be an explosively popular must-have for business and industry (and even less-so the general populace). It will be valued mostly in situations where hands-free computing is important, or where the 3 dimensional interaction brings something substantially better than the 2D equivalents. For a lot of the suggested uses, mobile computing provides plenty adequate solutions and Hololens isn't really revolutionising computer tech and enabling never-before-possible IT functionality. Those totally new features only possible on VR are going to be fairly limited in scope, with most features being an iterative improvement on what mobile can provide at whatever additional cost Hololens comes at to enable those.

 

[Prophecy2k]

Very pragmatic in your perspective Shifty. I can't really fault your logic.

 

[ramr]

The contract price might be 300 but Samsung is still getting close to 700 USD (minus retailer margin for unlocked phone) for the phone. It's just that instead of paying Samsung that extra cash, they are paying the phone company who are then paying Samsung. There is no subsidy here. It's more like credit.

This also doesn't factor in that the BOM for Hololens is going to be significantly more than the Note 4. Virtually everything in the Note 4 benefits from gigantic economies of scale. Something that many components in the HoloLens will not benefit from.

- Common LCD versus Custom light projection unit + Custom lenses.
- At most 2 common camera modules versus multiple (more than 6) custom sensors which include cameras, depth sensors, motion trackers, etc.
- A common CPU versus A common CPU + potentially a discrete GPU + custom HPU.
- 1-2 GB of RAM versus likely 4-8 GB of RAM.
- Relatively simple case design versus relatively complex case design (HMD, etc.) with more parts and more complex assembly.
- etc...

Everything that is custom is going to cost multiple times more than anything that is common in the above due to economies of scale.

Regards,
SB

Now that MS under Satya is actually creating a solid ecosystem, it has become much easier to have products that increase ecosystem NPV without necessarily having a positive value at the product level. Just like with occulus, I think that there is a strong incentive to price gen 1, and possibly 2, devices at or below cost to drive adoption. The network effect is so strong with these sorts of things that being ultra competitive on pricing could pay massive dividends down the road.

 

[eastmen]

They may have set out to create a gaming device, but found that the requirements to pull of a good enough experience in the directions they were headed pushed up the cost. The intention perhaps was to wait on the tech until it came down to something affordable before releasing, but Nadella saw potential in other markets willing to pay more.

Just one hypothetical scenario to show that intentions aren't indicative of final pricing. Good business goes where the money is.

I can see your thought process and can agree with what your thinking , I just don't think its the only way to view this. Fortelza has been on the road map for a long time and Like I said I don't see much that is custom in this design.

 

[Cyan]

The wiring suggestion was someone here's (eastmen?). The live demo was something else and very useful, moreso than a tablet based consultation because the expert can interact from exactly your POV. It doesn't get clearer than that. You can even have the expert's hands projected where you should place yours. That's way better than looking at a screen, remembering specific details, and then looking away and mapping what you saw on screen with what's in front of you.

That's a very niche functionality though, at least until the tech is ridiculously low-priced. How many times does a person look up how to do something on the net in a year? Is that worth hundreds of dollars to make that reference a bit clearer? I don't imagine so. You could have some special-case content, like Hayes producing Car Manuals in Hololens format for enthusiasts who are always in among their beloved motor's engine, but for Joe Mainstream, I don't think there's value. Not even Jonny White-collar. Definitely yes for the police though, in a sci-fi style facial recognition and info overlay! It'd make the dark glasses more justifiable.

I believe that all what you said and what we talked about here, like the hands thing -which Kinect was supposed to do-, means that this is the death of Kinect.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

I disagree with how much is going to be custom. I'm not even sure that the HPU will be custom and not simply an arm coprocessor and some of the tech will have been in other hardware such as the Kinect. The only real custom thing I can see if the optics.

This was originaly designed to be a gaming device. How many successful $1k gaming devices can you think of ?

The holographic lens is definitely going to be custom (and by custom, I mean low volume relative to parts used in most smartphones).

The HPU is certainly custom otherwise they'd have just said it has 2 CPUs. Just like the APU in the XBO is custom despite it using mostly standard x86 CPU cores.

It's certainly arguable whether the camera's and sensors it uses will be custom. But considering that the depth sensor/camera module has a wider FOV than the Kinect sensor would imply it isn't just reusing the Kinect Sensor. And even if it was, the volume of those sensors still but a fraction of the volume of the camera modules used in most smartphones. And even if none of them were custom, there's still a LOT more of them than in the Note 2 versus a minimum of 6 and likely quite a bit more than 6.

So, even without the custom bits, it's going to have more processing units, more sensors, more RAM. Even if all those units somehow miraculously had the same economies of scales as the units that are used in 10's if not 100's of millions of devices, it has more of them. So, how, again is it going to cost less than a Note 4 with the 700 USD price tag that you used? The carrier contract price isn't relevant here, unless you think every user will be signing up for a 2 year contract with a monthly fee. As the contract price for the Note 4 doesn't mean that Samsung is selling the unit for 300 USD, it's still selling it for close to 700 USD. It's just that the user is paying 300 USD up front plus a monthly fee over the course of their 2 year contract (collected by the phone company but Samsung still gets close to 700 USD for the phone).

So, even by your example. The HoloLens will cost at a minimum 700 USD. And considering it has more processors and more sensors. Even without taking into account the economies of scale available to commodity items used in the Note 4, it is going to cost more. Throw in those economies of scale and it's going to cost a lot more.

Maybe Microsoft will be willing to take a loss on selling the units. But I find that doubtful as regardless of the price, there will likely be a robust market for it in the corporate/professional sector. And a good market in higher education (medical, engineering, visualization, etc.). That will sustain the unit until cost is driven down (via shrinkage of components, consolidation of multiple components into singular components, and growing economies of scales as more unit are produced over time). At which point it will have potential to move into more areas of education, corporate and professional, and out of the high end niche early adopter consumer market.

All assuming, of course, they come up with robust solutions to some real problems. Robust controls without resorting to keyboards, etc., for example.

Regards,
SB

 

[eastmen]

The holographic lens is definitely going to be custom (and by custom, I mean low volume relative to parts used in most smartphones).

The HPU is certainly custom otherwise they'd have just said it has 2 CPUs. Just like the APU in the XBO is custom despite it using mostly standard x86 CPU cores.
I can see where your coming from but in the end it will just be a processor and it will be made in fabs just like any other cpu or gpu and its yields should not be poor , some speculate its one of the intel xenon pie chips

It's certainly arguable whether the camera's and sensors it uses will be custom. But considering that the depth sensor/camera module has a wider FOV than the Kinect sensor would imply it isn't just reusing the Kinect Sensor. And even if it was, the volume of those sensors still but a fraction of the volume of the camera modules used in most smartphones. And even if none of them were custom, there's still a LOT more of them than in the Note 2 versus a minimum of 6 and likely quite a bit more than 6.
Is it that the camera/senors have a wider FOV or the fact that there is a camera/sensor on each side of the head set that allows for the wider FOV vs the Kinect.

So, even without the custom bits, it's going to have more processing units, more sensors, more RAM. Even if all those units somehow miraculously had the same economies of scales as the units that are used in 10's if not 100's of millions of devices, it has more of them. So, how, again is it going to cost less than a Note 4 with the 700 USD price tag that you used? The carrier contract price isn't relevant here, unless you think every user will be signing up for a 2 year contract with a monthly fee. As the contract price for the Note 4 doesn't mean that Samsung is selling the unit for 300 USD, it's still selling it for close to 700 USD. It's just that the user is paying 300 USD up front plus a monthly fee over the course of their 2 year contract (collected by the phone company but Samsung still gets close to 700 USD for the phone).

The note 4 device has the highest resolution 5.7 inch screen ever made they are not making them in the 100s of millions , I believe the note 4 hasn't even broken 10m units world wide yet

So, even by your example. The HoloLens will cost at a minimum 700 USD. And considering it has more processors and more sensors. Even without taking into account the economies of scale available to commodity items used in the Note 4, it is going to cost more. Throw in those economies of scale and it's going to cost a lot more.

I'm not following where your getting $700 from my example. I was closer to the $300 range $40-$50 for cherry trail (if that) $50 for the hpu (if that) $20 for 6 gigs of ram $10 for 32 gigs of nand $50 or less for each camera/ sensor array . So $200 or so with battery included. The actual hardware will be cheap my only question is the optics

Maybe Microsoft will be willing to take a loss on selling the units. But I find that doubtful as regardless of the price, there will likely be a robust market for it in the corporate/professional sector. And a good market in higher education (medical, engineering, visualization, etc.). That will sustain the unit until cost is driven down (via shrinkage of components, consolidation of multiple components into singular components, and growing economies of scales as more unit are produced over time). At which point it will have potential to move into more areas of education, corporate and professional, and out of the high end niche early adopter consumer market.
At which point the copy cats will enter the market with cheaper products and take enough market share to render the market dead for MS . Drive adoption of the device and make it up with software sales, those high end corporate/professional sectors will just as willing buy a $500 head set and drop 1k on the software for it as opposed to droping $500 on a head set and $500 on the sotwafe

All assuming, of course, they come up with robust solutions to some real problems. Robust controls without resorting to keyboards, etc., for example.

They seem to already have a lot of it figured out , they are using eye tracking and finger reginition .

Regards,
SB

 

[dobwal]

Smartphones can go for $700 because carriers can generate thousands of dollars in service fees over those two year contracts.

The BOM estimates for the iphone 6 are around $200-$250 dollars with $50 of that attributed to the display and touch screen which make up the most expensive component.

MS can sell you a surface pro 3 for $800 and that comes with a dual core i3, 12.0 in 2160x1440 screen, 4 GBs of DDR3, 64 GB SSD, dual microphones, dual cameras (front and back), 3-axis accelerator, 3-axis gyroscope, ambient light sensor, USB3 port, minidisplay port, wifi, bluetooth, battery and a touch pen. All with a BOM estimated by some at around $300-$400.

MS can sell you a XB1 with 8 GB of DDR 3, 8 GB of Flash, 500 GB HDD, a Blu-Ray drive and a custom apu composed of 8 cpu cores, 1.3 Tflop gpu and 32 mb of eSRAM. Also includes Kinect which comes with a HD color camera, depth camera, 3 IR blaster, microphone array, prime sense processor alternative and 128 MB of DDR3. All for less than a BOM of $500.

All we know about Hololens is that it runs Windows 10 (free), Cherry Trail (an intel atom processor) and a bunch of novel and unknown components. Can't construct an estimate from that limited of info. Nevertheless I am not saying the form shown is going to be cheap. MS didn't mind selling a $800-1500 tablet or a $500 dollar console.

 

[Jwm]

I see the Gen1 device being sold at large(r) premium. Uses include graphics design, architecture, engineering, automotive design, etc.

Automotive design - instead of waiting on clay models a team wearing HoloLens can walk around a full-scale rendering and work through different design concepts.

Architecture (I have some love here as it was my major before I switched to business), but I can see some huge uses in this area. Not only from the design level but also to showing clients. If it can give you a more comfortable feeling that what you are looking at is 1:1 scale it will be huge. I would love to see what Autodesk can do with this device. A friend of mine who does mechanical engineering said they would pay up to $10k per device as they see huge uses for it.

Think of how much a good Cintiq goes for, although I would want both to still be in my arsenal.

What this device is missing is the Sony Move controllers, Microsoft needs to make that purchase now to secure those patents. ;p

Have not even thought about the possible medical applications to this yet. Maybe there is grounding in the rumor that Satya moved this away from a gaming device to be more general purpose. (I kind of hoped they had two, one for industry and one for game)

 

[eastmen]

The question is how many patents does ms have on this and can they keep other players out of the market. Wacom is able to price a cintiq because they are the only real competition in town.

There are a lot of companies doing AR so MS might not have the ability to charge inane prices on the viewer