Is there a future for consoles without a return to exotic hardware? *spawn

[Seanspeed]

Since that's not happening anymore, it will be interesting to see how the later half of this gen pans out for them.

It has to happen, though. Maybe it'll take longer this time, but they cant prolong this generation without dropping prices ever. They already started experiencing sales drops in 2023, with further drops forecasted for this year, and that's just gonna keep getting worse as time goes on if prices dont change.

Revenue stalling due to install base growth stalling will ultimately become more problematic than the prospect of lower profitability margins.

 

[Lurkmass]

It has to happen, though. Maybe it'll take longer this time, but they cant prolong this generation without dropping prices ever. They already started experiencing sales drops in 2023, with further drops forecasted for this year, and that's just gonna keep getting worse as time goes on if prices dont change.

Revenue stalling due to install base growth stalling will ultimately become more problematic than the prospect of lower profitability margins.

If price is becoming a problem then maybe it's a sign that console HW should stop being more like PC HW. The new upgraded SKU represents ALL of the trends of PC technology for better or for worse and THAT'S been the source the the problem ...

 

[iroboto]

If price is becoming a problem then maybe it's a sign that console HW should stop being more like PC HW. The new upgraded SKU represents ALL of the trends of PC technology for better or for worse and THAT'S been the source the the problem ...

But in some ways borrow PC IP has to be cheaper than internal R&D. The amount of money that is in R&D at these IHVs is monstrous. It’s not like the old days where there was a race to become a standard, and there were all sorts of exotic hardware.

Most of the challenges aren’t around the hardware either, it’s the software. An exotic kit will be killed in the face of compatible software multiplatform engines.

 

[Lurkmass]

But in some ways borrow PC IP has to be cheaper than internal R&D. The amount of money that is in R&D at these IHVs is monstrous. It’s not like the old days where there was a race to become a standard, and there were all sorts of exotic hardware.

Most of the challenges aren’t around the hardware either, it’s the software. An exotic kit will be killed in the face of compatible software multiplatform engines.

Right now the "PC strategy" to hardware evolution is to just throw more transistors and potentially migrate to ever more expensive memory hardware architectures (possibly even vertically stacked memory too when we look at dedicated AI HW!) for it's own problems (RT & AI) over past console strategies of finding clever HW design tradeoffs ...

It was fine during the previous console generation to reuse PC IPs but that immediately stops being a sustainable option in the longer term for consoles since current PC HW trends clashes with their interests to be an affordable entry option into gaming ...

If a software development barrier to custom HW does arise then we have a good justification for LONGER generational cycles to subscribe to said HW designs. Otherwise why even have the concept of HW generations or baseline performance when consoles are just using PC HW with it's iterative development cycle ?

 

[DavidGraham]

Longer console generation cycles will bankrupt console visuals and performance vs PC. See Nintendo.

There is no abundance of exotic hardware out there, PowerPC is out the window, there is only ARM and x86, NVIDIA or AMD. You will end up the same as today. See Nintendo.

The cost of PC porting will be much higher, and since PC is a critical part of Microsoft and Sony strategy this will be a huge negative.

The cost of multiplatform games will be higher, divided among multiple different exotic solutions and PC.

The vendor with the exotic solution will be at a disadvantage vs the vendor with standard hardware which can be iterated on, updated and developed for much faster vs the exotic solution.

Exotic solutions will dismantle backward compatibility.

Exotic solutions means you are left on your own, while others such as NVIDIA push the boundaries with tech similar to frame generation, upscaling, ray reconstruction ... etc. AMD backported many of the tech they developed on PC (as a result of competitive pressure form NVIDIA) to consoles. Exotic hardware will be deprived of this and will fall far behind PCs technologically.

Series S has proven that being cheaper alone is not a recipe for success, you need the right mix of cost/visuals/performance/exclusive titles to make it work. PlayStation 5 has sold significantly higher than Series S despite costing more.

 

[Lurkmass]

Multiplatform software development parity is overrated. Console gaming used to be better in the past and I would strongly argue that exotic hardware designs made them BETTER (often cheaper too) for it because no one singular system truly had the "superior experiences" in many instances. Even for multiplatform releases in the past, you could expect something DIFFERENT whether it'd be worse or better upon interpretation ...

Let lead platform status be a REAL choice between developers again or let alone EXCLUSIVITY! What are we seriously doing that's so special with standardized PC HW that only keeps getting more expensive at the expense of the console model ? All of the advantages (cost & differentiated experiences) that consoles used to have against PCs are being ERODED away ...

 

[trinibwoy]

Multiplatform software development parity is overrated. Console gaming used to be better in the past and I would strongly argue that exotic hardware designs made them BETTER (often cheaper too) for it because no one singular system truly had the "superior experiences" in many instances. Even for multiplatform releases in the past, you could expect something DIFFERENT whether it'd be worse or better upon interpretation ...

Let lead platform status be a REAL choice between developers again or let alone EXCLUSIVITY! What are we seriously doing that's so special with standardized PC HW that only keeps getting more expensive at the expense of the console model ? All of the advantages (cost & differentiated experiences) that consoles used to have against PCs are being ERODED away ...

The economics of exotic platforms don’t work when games cost so much to make. You need to target as much of the market as possible. Maybe you can design custom hardware and software that produces amazing games that people are willing to pay more for. But I wouldn’t bet on it.

 

[Lurkmass]

The economics of exotic platforms don’t work when games cost so much to make.

Again, let lead platform status or especially exclusivity be a REAL CHOICE once more!

Who cares if it's exotic hardware at that point if you're exclusive software in the first place or you're looking to give the other systems the short end of the stick ?

 

[DavidGraham]

Games are already very very expensive to make, which is why even console exclusives are going multiplatform to all platforms (except Nintendo because their hardware is weak due to longer generational cycle, and because it's more exotic than the rest).

 

[see colon]

I don’t expect this console will sell more than a few million units at best. I also find the 75% performance mode claim suspicious. I wonder what % of console users are even aware of such things.

What if that 75% number means 75% of people don't care how a game looks.

Let lead platform status be a REAL choice between developers again or let alone EXCLUSIVITY

There isn't enough money for current AAA budgets to sustain single platform releases exclusively. Look at the biggest games - They are basically all on at least 2 platforms (including PC). Nintendo is the exception, but I would counter that with that they have lower budgets than most AAA games for much of their catalog, and larger (by budget) games like the recent Zelda titles, are part of franchises that have decades of releases to curate a fanbase.

 

[Lurkmass]

If the cost of game development is a problem then the industry should learn and embrace OUTSOURCING to take advantage of potentially higher productivity offered in some foreign labour markets. We know for a fact that there are talented developers exist there or are waiting to be found OUTSIDE the western sphere of influence whether we like them or not ...

 

[Flappy Pannus]

If the cost of game development is a problem then the industry should learn and embrace OUTSOURCING to take advantage of potentially higher productivity offered in some foreign labour markets. We know for a fact that there are talented developers exist there or are waiting to be found OUTSIDE the western sphere of influence whether we like them or not ...

I'm going to go out on a limb and suggest western companies don't really need to be educated on the concept of outsourcing.

 

[Lurkmass]

I'm going to go out on a limb and suggest western companies don't really need to be educated on the concept of outsourcing.

No but apparently much of the AAA gaming industry does since they seem to continually keep employing people from liberal democracies as the majority of their workforce ...

 

[see colon]

The industry has shed 20k jobs in the last year, some of those from the studios that are used for outsourcing.

 

[arandomguy]

If the cost of game development is a problem then the industry should learn and embrace OUTSOURCING to take advantage of potentially higher productivity offered in some foreign labour markets. We know for a fact that there are talented developers exist there or are waiting to be found OUTSIDE the western sphere of influence whether we like them or not ...

This was an article from years ago -

Made in China: every new video game you love

The unseen labor behind the video game industry’s biggest titles.

theoutline.com

Even indie developers outsource to cheaper countries.

Not looking to set off a broader discussion but I wonder if the move towards unions will further accelerate outsourcing and the reliance on AI tools.

 

[trinibwoy]

No but apparently much of the AAA gaming industry does since they seem to continually keep employing people from liberal democracies as the majority of their workforce ...

In my experience outsourcing isn’t a net productivity win over time. Either way it’s doubtful that outsourcing and exotic hardware are the solution to AAA budget explosion. It certainly won’t help generate more revenue from a smaller target market. The last exotic console was a pain in the ass to work with and developers are already struggling with run of the mill x86 + pc gpu consoles.

 

[Lurkmass]

This was an article from years ago -

Made in China: every new video game you love

The unseen labor behind the video game industry’s biggest titles.

theoutline.com

Even indie developers outsource to cheaper countries.

Not looking to set off a broader discussion but I wonder if the move towards unions will further accelerate outsourcing and the reliance on AI tools.

If they are then they aren't going in harder enough on it. Ideally with big publishers, most in-house employees positions (upwards of 70%+) based in western influenced countries should be made redundant and replaced with foreign employees. An outsourcing studio like Virtuos has basically been treated as some porting firm with a smaller amount of supplemental work actually going into the core project. Very rarely are they taken seriously with bigger work shares on new and original AAA projects (even when the article states that the work they do isn't very different from what traditional studios do) so the industry should work more towards this!

Game developers 'unionizing' along with other worker protections only contributes to the AAA cost development model problem. Gone are the days when being a game developer wasn't supposed to be some career and was a passion project where people would bleed themselves out to realize or live their dreams ...

In my experience outsourcing isn’t a net productivity win over time. Either way it’s doubtful that outsourcing and exotic hardware are the solution to AAA budget explosion. It certainly won’t help generate more revenue from a smaller target market. The last exotic console was a pain in the ass to work with and developers are already struggling with run of the mill x86 + pc gpu consoles.

Multiplatform development still isn't an excuse for the industry to hobble or outright deny the real effects of a being a "lead platform" because they're too scared or spineless of facing the bad outcomes that come with it. If you absolutely HAD to ship your product on other platforms then industry was perfectly fine with the idea of not delivering parity in the past so why change a model that was working well for consoles to a model that now instigates more expensive hardware in the long run ? (it would be an even more damning indictment of this fact that they're STILL using an OLDER process technology to manufacture the upgraded system!)

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Your argument is to create exotic hardware that's harder to develop for, and then pay lower income workers to create content for it?

The reason there's no future for exotic hardware is because of the Catch 22. No-one is going to create software for a platform with a tiny install base. No-one is going to buy a console without all the games. Some exotic design is still going to need to take all the multiplat software (devs don't want to have to have platform specific engines and solutions any more as it's too costly) and so, in the end, not be all that exotic.

I think your point can only really be reconciled with a new Chinese or Indian player creating a new console that doesn't try to exist in the current marketplace but can offer something radically new using tech that does something differently with low budget exclusive AAA games due to cheap labour, but at the same time be backed by the kinds of investment that the key megacorps are spending on tech.

What would that hardware and engine paradigm look like? What would it cost in R&D and implementation, and what would the sales be like?

 

[Lurkmass]

Who's going to develop content for an unaffordable platform for it's main market (console gamers and NOT PC HW enthusiast) that also has a tiny install base too ?

 

[Shifty Geezer]

You haven't answered a single question or explained your model at all.

If it costs next to nothing to port content from PC, every dev will release software if there are enough numbers because it's just changing the build target, which is why we have cross-plat games now. Going into next gen, the platform holders know if they make a console that is good enough and takes UE and Unity games, it'll get content. What is the argument for them to give up on that and chance their investment on a completely new architecture without easy cross-plat support? How can they be sure they'll get a huge number of games? How can they convince devs they'll get a huge number of players? As a developer, what's going to make me want to target a new, esoteric platform exclusively?

If you can present a product that's revolutionary, vastly superior that everyone wants, you can create a market. But how do you do that? What's the R&D cost? What's this new architecture going to look like? What's the software paradigm that makes it that much better on the same or less silicon as the conventional nV/AMD model? What are the tools going to look like?

You need to present an actual, actionable strategy that appeals to a huge console-hardware R&D and production investment and to a large enough software developer base willing to invest what it takes to produce AAA content.