Hypothetical: Direct Download only Future for Console Gaming?

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Prophecy2k

Veteran
I've wanted to ask this question for a while now as it seems to be the consensus accross the industry that as soon as the infrastructure is there across a "wide enough" portion of the consumer base, that digital downloads will become the "defacto" method for video games distribution.

My question however, based on the relative success/failure of the most initial examples we already have; e.g. the Apple AppStore, PSN (in particular the PSPGo), XBLA (in particular games on demand) and the PC space, (as well as the seeming heavy resistance of retailers to any sort of change to their exisiting business models) would be; is a DD-only future for videogames home consoles really feasible anymore? Or are the hurdles needed to be overcome too great (especially when we take into account the competing platforms, publishers, retailers, consumer etc)?

Also, what about the benefits/negatives affecting the consumer? How will this affect industry growth?

Any thoughts?
 
When 50 per cent of the current installed HD console base aren't connected to the internet, the whole concept of a DD-only console seems stupendously too early to even contemplate. Infrastructure just isn't there.

I'd like to see all releases available as DDs, but we'll be lucky even if that happens for the next gen.
 
Maybe 50% dont go online with their console, but I'm pretty sure the far majority of HD console owners has a internet connection available.

I don't think it will happen soon though. A lot of people still don't have a really fast internet connection and/or have data caps. For example a DD only console would be impossible in Belgium because the Belgium government is deeply involved with all ISP's so in Beglium you get stuff like 4gb data caps a month while paying 30+ euro's. OTOH, it would work perfect in Holland. Most people have acces to 20mbit connections with no caps at all for like 20 oor 25 euro's a month.

Even if everybody had fast enough connections I'd still think retail will make it a real problem to go download only. They sell the consoles but probably don't really make much money it it will they probably do earn a fair bit on selling software. So going download only probably means they either want a bigger profit on the console or they will just refuse to sell the console because there is no profit in it for them.

But I suppose next gen consoles would probably have support for full game downloads in them. Even if it would just be for expermementing with a small number of games.
 
I think it has to happen with a new player. Somebody like Apple. It cant be an existing player they've just got too much legacy baggage.

I cant read the future, but I dont see any of the big 3 doing it next gen, at least.

I also as a hardcore player, think that market for the big budget, high graphics experience (your Call of Duty 4's) remains strong, and that market doesn't lent itself to download due to the mass data needed.
 
I cannot see any reason to ditch physical media. I personally have around 50 PS3 games, what happens if the PS4 is download only? I download a game and repeat the process until the HD is full (which added a hundred pounds or so to price of the console because it has to be so huge) then I enter the realm of having to delete games or faf about with another storage device to "backup" my games and lose the ability to quickly play a game on a whim that I have now with my physical media in the process.
 
Your 50 PS3 games would take up how much disk space? I'm guessing less than 500 GB overall. There is no reason why this would be an unattainable amount of storage in the next console generation. And with average broadband speeds quickly vaulting beyond 10 Mb/s, you can count on being able to download whole games in less than an hour (in the background). I definitely see DD being offered as a means of buying all games next generation - not the only way, but a day-one option. The downloading of retail games on XBL seems to have proven the viability of this.
 
tongue_of_colicab said:
For example a DD only console would be impossible in Belgium because the Belgium government is deeply involved with all ISP's so in Beglium you get stuff like 4gb data caps a month while paying 30+ euro's.
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Man, where did you get that idea from? Belgacom hasn't been a government owned company for a while and the other (cheaper) ISPs are private companies. You made a point, though, as many ISPs offer data caps. Mine is 100Gb/month.

So I don't see a dd-only console being successful in certain countries. However, DD could work if you could download data on a needed basis, e.g. an RPG or adventure game where you could download on a chapter/area basis. You still need to optimize size aggressively for people with limited data transfers.
 
One has to assume that, on average, download caps will rise linearly with download speeds, and that both of these will rise faster than the average size of games rises.
 
tongue_of_colicab said:
Maybe 50% dont go online with their console, but I'm pretty sure the far majority of HD console owners has a internet connection available.
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Doesn't really matter if they've got *A* internet connection if it's one where downloading one full-size BR game takes a week or two and busts their monthly download cap multiple times over. There's simply no advantage in that.

Besides, the industry needs retail too in order to sell hardware if nothing else, and retail can't survive if DD takes over as the norm.
 
First i was pro DD for consoles but now i see how steam and games on demand or doing.
They ask way to much for a download. Steam offers more help but i had hoped DD would have the games priced at 30 dollar or something. Then your still with the console HDD unless all consoles go the way sony has done with the ps 3 you can put in every 2.5" hdd in the ps 3. You still have download caps in most country here in holland we have a fair use policy i believe its somewhere around 300 gig/month.

Now that i discover this awesome site for dutch people that help sort out the cheapest price from web shop its awesome that web retailers are competing against each other. I can get new day 1 games for like 40 euro instead of going to the shop and pay 65 euro for a new game.
 
They can compress video, audio and maybe textures much more than say the Bluray version of the game. I mean music start out offering 128k MP3 and video on demand don't exactly offer 40MBps Bluray quality either. So maybe for games if the Bluray version is 20 GB, the download version might be only 5 GB of lesser quality.
 
Zassk said:
One has to assume that, on average, download caps will rise linearly with download speeds, and that both of these will rise faster than the average size of games rises.
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I wouldn't exactly count on that. Cable internet here in the states for example have been raising their speeds fairly aggressively, but the data cap has remained the same. With lower tier speeds (<1 Mbps) having the same cap as higher speeds (>50 Mbps). At least their cap is more generous than a lot of countries (250 GB).

It's why, while I considered moving to Cable, I decided to stay with my DSL even though it's only 7 Mbps. It at least doesn't have any data caps.

Regards,
SB
 
Rangers said:
I think it has to happen with a new player. Somebody like Apple. It cant be an existing player they've just got too much legacy baggage.

I cant read the future, but I dont see any of the big 3 doing it next gen, at least.

I also as a hardcore player, think that market for the big budget, high graphics experience (your Call of Duty 4's) remains strong, and that market doesn't lent itself to download due to the mass data needed.
Click to expand...

I wouldn't be too sure about that. MS is already experimenting with full game DD versions on X360. Granted it appears it's going to be mostly relegated to older titles at least initially.

They've already laid the groundwork and infrastructure. And even put in methods to avoid overly antagonizing retail outlets through the use of Points and Point Cards (bought at retail).

I expect MS to use X360 more and more over the next few years to get people used to digital distribution of games.

And wouldn't be surprised if the next Xbox launched with an option for same day release of physical and DD version (obviously Publisher choice).

Regards,
SB
 
Zassk said:
Your 50 PS3 games would take up how much disk space? I'm guessing less than 500 GB overall. There is no reason why this would be an unattainable amount of storage in the next console generation. And with average broadband speeds quickly vaulting beyond 10 Mb/s, you can count on being able to download whole games in less than an hour (in the background). I definitely see DD being offered as a means of buying all games next generation - not the only way, but a day-one option. The downloading of retail games on XBL seems to have proven the viability of this.
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Is it likely that games are going to get smaller?

Already PS3 games are potentially 50gb with dual layer discs, yes only one game uses it so far but it is likely to be the norm with the assests the next generation are going to need.

Even with the fastest internet connection available in the UK it would be quicker to go to the shop and buy it than download 50 gb of data and thats assuming you can download at maximum speed which is rarely the case.

V3 said:
They can compress video, audio and maybe textures much more than say the Bluray version of the game. I mean music start out offering 128k MP3 and video on demand don't exactly offer 40MBps Bluray quality either. So maybe for games if the Bluray version is 20 GB, the download version might be only 5 GB of lesser quality.
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So you will end up paying the same for a worse version?

If downloading is going to work it needs to be better than buying it from a shop not worse.
 
Silent_Buddha said:
I wouldn't be too sure about that. MS is already experimenting with full game DD versions on X360. Granted it appears it's going to be mostly relegated to older titles at least initially.

They've already laid the groundwork and infrastructure. And even put in methods to avoid overly antagonizing retail outlets through the use of Points and Point Cards (bought at retail).

I expect MS to use X360 more and more over the next few years to get people used to digital distribution of games.

And wouldn't be surprised if the next Xbox launched with an option for same day release of physical and DD version (obviously Publisher choice).

Regards,
SB
Click to expand...

Don't you think that publishers themselves are under compulsion from retailers to ensure digitally distributed titles remain at a disadvantage somehow. That's certainly what we've seen thus far, not only in the games industry but also the movie industry and varous other media forms.

Games thus far are only available long after their launch day, or released day & date at a higher price than at retail (the reason many of the games i buy on PC i never buy at launch, because they always cost more than at retail here in the UK).

If the bulk of video game sales continue to come from retail rather than digital distribution, then surely game publishers are put in a very restricted position having to balance their own interests with those of the retailers who they must depend on so much currently.
 
Prophecy2k said:
Don't you think that publishers themselves are under compulsion from retailers to ensure digitally distributed titles remain at a disadvantage somehow. That's certainly what we've seen thus far, not only in the games industry but also the movie industry and varous other media forms.

Games thus far are only available long after their launch day, or released day & date at a higher price than at retail (the reason many of the games i buy on PC i never buy at launch, because they always cost more than at retail here in the UK).

If the bulk of video game sales continue to come from retail rather than digital distribution, then surely game publishers are put in a very restricted position having to balance their own interests with those of the retailers who they must depend on so much currently.
Click to expand...

On the PC side at least in the US, you don't see that. Most titles have day and date digital distribution now.

The only stipulation that retailers have made stuck is that DD versions MUST retail for the same price as the boxed edition. So retailers can still get a leg up if they wanted to offer a title at a discount at launch which DD cannot do.

Gamestop in the US has managed to wrangle exclusive pre-order bonuses for some titles. And one company in the UK (can't remember name) managed to get Bioware to cripple the DD version of the Collector's edition of DAO (3 collectors edition items axed from the DD version).

But other than isolated cases, DD is day and date.

I'd expect the console versions to follow the same system. MS Point Cards are the peace offering to retailers so they maintain the higher margin game sales (margin for retailer is built into the price of the point cards). And publishers will want to move to DD as it then reduces the used game market, where they get no revenue.

Regards,
SB
 
I'll just repost it again

http://www.akamai.com/stateoftheinternet/

There you have avg speeds on a bunch of countries, but going only DD seems to be a bit to quick for nextgen I think. Although Steam seems to do well for PC games?

But I'd love if they let me buy games day 1 as a DD version and let those that want a physical copy get their fun.
For instance MAG, which is the latest game I bought, no need to have a disc for it really, now if I want to play something else, I need to get out of the couch and swap discs, that is so pre 2010 :)
 
Silent_Buddha said:
On the PC side at least in the US, you don't see that. Most titles have day and date digital distribution now.

The only stipulation that retailers have made stuck is that DD versions MUST retail for the same price as the boxed edition. So retailers can still get a leg up if they wanted to offer a title at a discount at launch which DD cannot do.

Gamestop in the US has managed to wrangle exclusive pre-order bonuses for some titles. And one company in the UK (can't remember name) managed to get Bioware to cripple the DD version of the Collector's edition of DAO (3 collectors edition items axed from the DD version).

But other than isolated cases, DD is day and date.

I'd expect the console versions to follow the same system. MS Point Cards are the peace offering to retailers so they maintain the higher margin game sales (margin for retailer is built into the price of the point cards). And publishers will want to move to DD as it then reduces the used game market, where they get no revenue.

Regards,
SB
Click to expand...

I guess it's reasonable to assume that it could work in the same or a similar way on consoles, but will MS' and Sony's XBL & PSN cards be enough to appease the wraith of most videogame retailers, of which a huge chunk of their profits comes from the used game market.

I get that pulishers will want to get rid of the used game market for how it negatively affects them, however i don't see retailers lying down and allowing a major source of their cashflow to be dragged out from under them. And again, thinking about it pragmatically, what would be the point of a video game store that only has shelves stocked with cards and no games?!? :-S

Both Sony, MS & the game publishers will have to do a whole lost more to appease retailers than simply offering PSN/XBL voucher cards.
 
I don't think it would be convenient. If there are no political restrictions vis-a-vis retailers, then I'm thinking you could just as easily expand the online store with an option to buy a disc version of a game at a postage and packaging premium. But in the end that means you'll also need to start selling the hardware online.

What you could do though is set everything up this way, and then retailers will use the same type of interface to buy stuff for their stores, giving them perhaps an extended user interface that allows bulk purchases, reservations and so on and give them discounts. I think this is a more efficient way to do things probably than set up your own retail presence (like Apple has been doing now, making physical stores, but I somehow don't feel that will have a big future). The market is fickle, and retailers can change 'provider', whereas a publisher or platform holder will need to scale up and down constantly to match market demand.

In the end I don't think we'll ever completely get rid of retailers, because it's just much nicer to see things in person. But who knows?
 
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