How much will Insomniac's Spider-Man game sell? *spawn

Discussion in 'Console Industry' started by Xbat, Aug 6, 2018.

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How many lifetime units do you think Insomniac's Spider-Man game will sell?

Poll closed Sep 7, 2018.
  1. < 2 million

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  2. 2-4 million

    21.4%
  3. 4-6 milion

    7.1%
  4. 6-8 million

    21.4%
  5. 8-10 million

    21.4%
  6. 10-12 million

    14.3%
  7. 12-15 million

    7.1%
  8. > 15 million

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  9. What the hell's a 'spiderman'?

    7.1%
  1. chris1515

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    Best two first week for an exclusive in UK.
     
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  2. Shifty Geezer

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    For reference

    Uncharted 4 - 234,000 units => 8.7M sold
    HZD - 160,000 units => 7.6M sold
    GoW - 158,000 units => 5M sold
    SM - 300,000 units => ???

    Though these titles really show where legs are important, as HZD sold considerably less than UC4 to start with (new IP) yet lifetime sales were much closer than that first two-week drop.

    Looks like SM is on for 10 million.
     
  3. chris1515

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    UC4 sales aren't lifetime sales. UC4 sales are the sales until 22th december 2016 only 8 months after release. And it was in top 20 of 2017 s in multiple european country for example Spain. Sony don't release many sales statement out of the first few months. We only learned by Naughty Dog the 17 millions sales of TLOU and TLOU remastered combined...
     
    #103 chris1515, Sep 17, 2018
    Last edited: Sep 17, 2018
  4. Shifty Geezer

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    None of them are lifetime sales - they won't be until the generation is over.
     
  5. chris1515

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    HZD sales are for one year, UC4 sales are for 8 months without 23rd december and 24th december for the late christmas gift. I think comparison is not fair. Compare HZD one year of sales againt UC4 one year sales would be a better metric. We have no idea how much God of War, HZD and UC4 sales are today.
     
    #105 chris1515, Sep 17, 2018
    Last edited: Sep 17, 2018
  6. ultragpu

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    Spiderman probably already hit 6M by now and easy 12M by end of gen judging from all the indications. Insider Benji from Era strongly hinted record breaking sales from forthcoming report.
     
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  7. Shifty Geezer

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    :-? The only comparison being made is between what these games have sold so far and what SM might sell, referencing their sales at the same point in their lives. It doesn't matter one jot whether HZD sells more or less than UC4 - what matters is how much these titles sold so far as a barometer for Spider-Man forecasts. If they only sold 2 million, chances of SM selling 10 million is very low; if they sold 20 million, chances of SM selling 10+ million is very high. We can see 5+ million is a good baseline prediction for a similar selling game. 10+ million is exceptional.

    TLoU is another good reference point. It went from 7 million in its first 13 months to 17 million over 5 years including remaster.
     
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  8. chris1515

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    I think it is obvious for example UC4 sales are now 10+ millions. Spiderman will do better than 10+ millions maybe reach 15 millions sales.
     
  9. Shifty Geezer

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    Yes. And the only reason it's obvious is because we're looking at the numbers. ;)

    However, total sales can still be debated. UC4 is a 93 metascore title and a flagship title for the PS4 system. TLoU is a 95 rated title. At 87 points, Spider-Man isn't in the same league of 'must have video game'. It becomes a toss-up between video game quality versus super hero brand. So like I said, it all depends of the title's long-term appeal. AFAIK there's clear, documented correlation between first week's/month's/year's sales and lifetime sales, so there's no clear, numerical precedent for the prediction.
     
  10. Xbat

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    So do you guys think Spiderman will track even better in the US ?
     
  11. chris1515

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    From the people tracking sales they think metacritic/opencritic score has no effect on Spiderman. Spiderman popularity just needed a good Spiderman game not a 90+ game. They were not thinking it can beat God of War and now it is on road to be the biggest sales of Sony game. Marvel + Sony, Insomniac and post MCU is the magic...
     
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  12. chris1515

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    Marvel marketing help the sales of the game too.
     
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  13. Shortbread

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    That's very debatable and subjective. I mean, Spider-Man was a 'must have game' for me and possibly thousands/millions of others, whom didn't rely solely on critics opinions and scores. And having an 87 Metacritic score, would still make it a must have game, IMHO.

    Anecdotally, when I see my kindergarten son and his classmates talking about Spider-Man, in the same manner as Minecraft & Roblox, I can see Spidey staying within the top 10 software sales throughout this year, and possibly 4 months within the New Year. Long-term sales success would be carried by DLC, an Ultimate Edition release, and possibly a PS5 update. Originally I voted 8-10 million copies sold throughout Spidey's lifetime, I'm now leaning more towards 12-13 million copies throughout it's lifetime.
     
    #113 Shortbread, Sep 17, 2018
    Last edited: Sep 17, 2018
  14. milk

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    I think an openworld sandbox game where you can quickly hop in and do something cool when you have a friend over and pass the controller to him as you have a beer has much more appeal to large part of the consumers who don't read reviews of check metacritic scores. Those scores come from professional critics and very invested gamers that care much more about story and production value than most actual consumers who just wanna have some easy fun at their couch. They are useful to measure the potential of two single player linear games against each other, but the fact this game has the sandbox element automatically makes it more casual-player-friendly.
     
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  15. Shifty Geezer

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    By 'must have video game', I mean 'so highly rated, even if you don't normally play these sorts of games, you'll want this.'

    SM doesn't fall into that subset, but does span others such as huge brand.
     
  16. Shortbread

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    By whom and what standards?

    Are we strictly going by professional critic scores? If so, then that 'must have game', may not be that 'must have game', on every platform... especially multiplatform titles. Some XBO multiplatform titles have higher critic scores ranging in the mid-90's, while other platforms don't, and vice-versa. Same content, same gameplay, just different critics at times.

    What is the cutoff score for a "must have video game?"

    Wouldn't a perfect score of 100 be a 'must have game', not scores below that?

    Spider-Man having a score of 87, and a game having a score 95, has no bearing on what I (or others) consider a 'must have video game', IMHO. These types of statements are really subjective...
     
  17. Shifty Geezer

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    It's not a scientific measure. ;)
    Broadly speaking, higher rated games get higher sales, to the point companies have started to use metascores for setting targets and expectations. A game in the 90s will sell better than an equivalent game in the 80s, all things being equal.

    I stuck the 'must have' in quotes to show it's a vague term. If you can think of better one, please present it. I'm just trying to identify one of parameters in comparing sales. A game like TLoU is so universally acclaimed that there are going to be sales from people just wanting to see if it really is that good, even if otherwise they wouldn't be interested, so it gains a higher potential audience. That is, every game will appeal to different folk for different reasons. UC 4 appealed to existing Uncharted fans, Naughty Dog fans, third-person shooter fans, PS4 owners wanting a game to showcase their new toy, fans of AAA single player adventures. TLoU stretches that a little more by being raved about - not only in the top ten of PS3 games, but also the highest user score on Metacritic.

    Spider-Man's potential audience includes open world game fans, Insomniac fans, and Spider-Man fans, but doesn't reach the 'OMG you have got to see this game even if you hate Marvel comics' heights of TLoU AFAICS.
     
  18. milk

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    I get what you mean shifty, but I think the scores are a bad metric on this one. The media hype "on NON gaming channels" I've personally seen (anecdotal at best sure) have spelled out exactly that kind of "must-have" game for me. I've heard multiple non-gamer people around me mention this game, much more then was the case with GOW or U4. I think only TLoU got the same universal attention, and I think that's because it was making people cry hahaha. As far as game genres, TLoU was a serious, story driven survival horror linear 3rd person shooter. If that can become a hit, an open world superhero game where you swing across huge skyscrapers and acrobatically brawl against procedurally placed thugs has everything to best it. It's a game you can just fuck around in for 2 minutes and you already "get it". It's just such a fucking easy game to sell.
     
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  19. Shifty Geezer

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    I think people are kinda missing my argument. ;) I didn't say SM is undesirable, nor that it lacks appeal. It may well have more appeal than other games. I'm saying it's appeal doesn't include the 'this is one of those video games you must play in your life' sort, but that doesn't mean it's appeal on its merits isn't worth more than that. There are games that sell plenty just on being fun. I'm simply looking at the limited data we have and identifying what parallels there are and aren't.
     
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  20. milk

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    I see. I agree with that. This probably won't be as historical of a game as others.
    But I think it may be more of a "this is the game you have to try out right now" kind of game for a couple months, more so than TLoU, U4 or GoW.
     
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