How much will Insomniac's Spider-Man game sell? *spawn

How many lifetime units do you think Insomniac's Spider-Man game will sell?


  • Total voters
    14
  • Poll closed .
You said "decades of horrible Sony SpiderMan films before the current one." which data have shown to be false.

Multiple studies are showing spiderman to be, to this day, the most popular and profitabe super hero. The 2017 film was the most successful comicbook movie of the year beating even guardians 2. We are attempting to answer honestly iroboto's question, establishing the current value of the brand. You posted flamebait. When called up on it you repeated an anecdote about coworkers. Using inflation is moving the goalpost.

You failed to express what I missed. I waited until you repeated your anecdote. I guess we're done. I'm back to (bad) jokes now.

His point, if I'm reading it correctly is that when adjusted for inflation and increased box office ticket prices, it doesn't look as good.

For example, with ticket prices rising significantly between 2002 and 2018. Different sites vary slightly with year to year ticket prices, but going with this (http://www.natoonline.org/data/ticket-price/ ) there should be an ~1.6x increase for 2018 compared to 2002. Using that site rather than my local theater prices (which have almost doubled since 2002).

Using Homecoming as a baseline.
  • Spiderman 2002 - 1,280 million USD
  • Spiderman Homecoming - 880 million USD
That's a better reflection of actual consumer views of the movie in the theater. Homecoming has had significantly less viewership in cinemas than the 2002 Spiderman.

That said, I'm not sure Box Office Sales are a good way to judge a media property's pull over the years anymore considering that theater viewership continues to decline overall. But it does represent a data point that shows a potentially lower interest in Spiderman now than back in 2002, albeit one that is incomplete (Homecoming's box office run hasn't finished, even though the lion's share of it has already passed).

Anecdotally (this thread), I've seen more people looking forward to the new Spiderman game on streams than not. But I've also seen people that like Spiderman who are interested, but not super excited for the new game. But they are definitely in the minority.

As long as the game is good, I don't see it performing poorly. Assuming that it's good, there's a pretty good chance it will be joining the 10+ million sales club.

Regards,
SB
 
A simple box office takings comparison isn't terribly meaningful because more and more people can and do wait for the short-release to disc/streaming option. It can be just a few months between a box-office release and a disc release these days where before it was a year+ wait, so its more economical to wait and buy the disc. Often it's a better experience too. A single gross-takings stat isn't going to have the nuance needed gauge the wider picture, which is why more needs to be looked at.

The broader question is whether the brand is suffering fatigue - that's why the films were mentioned. It was suggested that people weren't as interested in SM because Sony made lots of bad films, the implication being all of them because the assertion was 'decades of bad films'. Data appears to show that Sony's films were a mixed bag (Meta scores in chronological order - 73, 83, 59, 66, 53, 73). The point about the films also doesn't correlate directly 1:1 with the brand value, as others have argued - super heroes can endure even through some ghastly films (Batman et al).

One could point to the box office takings of Homecoming and conclude that, factoring in inflation and increased ticket prices, SM is only half as popular now as it was in 2002. But look at the wider evidence, not least of which are the numerous polls/articles linked to that have Spider-Man as the number one favourite super hero, and it's clear that SM is still a very popular brand. If anything, the weak movie and game spell has possibly left fans with more interest in some good brand material.
 
A simple box office takings comparison isn't terribly meaningful because more and more people can and do wait for the short-release to disc/streaming option. It can be just a few months between a box-office release and a disc release these days where before it was a year+ wait, so its more economical to wait and buy the disc. Often it's a better experience too. A single gross-takings stat isn't going to have the nuance needed gauge the wider picture, which is why more needs to be looked at.

The broader question is whether the brand is suffering fatigue - that's why the films were mentioned. It was suggested that people weren't as interested in SM because Sony made lots of bad films, the implication being all of them because the assertion was 'decades of bad films'. Data appears to show that Sony's films were a mixed bag (Meta scores in chronological order - 73, 83, 59, 66, 53, 73). The point about the films also doesn't correlate directly 1:1 with the brand value, as others have argued - super heroes can endure even through some ghastly films (Batman et al).

One could point to the box office takings of Homecoming and conclude that, factoring in inflation and increased ticket prices, SM is only half as popular now as it was in 2002. But look at the wider evidence, not least of which are the numerous polls/articles linked to that have Spider-Man as the number one favourite super hero, and it's clear that SM is still a very popular brand. If anything, the weak movie and game spell has possibly left fans with more interest in some good brand material.

Yes, there's also data points that we're likely to never get that would give a better picture of Spiderman's consumer draw. For instance has sales or streams of the previous movies increased after Homecomings release? That would indicate a renewed interest in the whole Spiderman franchise. Many people watching Homecoming may not have watched the 2002 movie, for example. Did watching Spiderman Homecoming get them excited for the Spiderman franchise such that they are now seeking out other sources of Spiderman material?

Regards,
SB
 
It won't do God of War numbers, but for a single player game on a single platform it will be multiple millions in the first few months. The difference between 4 million and 8 million will come down to word of mouth and metacritic scores. The difference between a 80/100 and 90/100. I don't think there is a chance it will review worse than Sunset Overdrive or Infamous Second Son, so the question is how high will it score? The previews are great so far, but no one has played the complete game.
 
The broader question is whether the brand is suffering fatigue - that's why the films were mentioned. It was suggested that people weren't as interested in SM because Sony made lots of bad films, the implication being all of them because the assertion was 'decades of bad films'. Data appears to show that Sony's films were a mixed bag (Meta scores in chronological order - 73, 83, 59, 66, 53, 73). The point about the films also doesn't correlate directly 1:1 with the brand value, as others have argued - super heroes can endure even through some ghastly films (Batman et al).

One could point to the box office takings of Homecoming and conclude that, factoring in inflation and increased ticket prices, SM is only half as popular now as it was in 2002. But look at the wider evidence, not least of which are the numerous polls/articles linked to that have Spider-Man as the number one favourite super hero, and it's clear that SM is still a very popular brand. If anything, the weak movie and game spell has possibly left fans with more interest in some good brand material.
I've unfortunately limited time here, so I'm going to make a low quality post on this, brain spilled out on paper.
I think ti's important to remember that the position we've taken isn't that Spider Man won't be popular, it will be, it's just whether or not it will be able to break 8 million.
I think that's an important note here, in this discussion. When we talk about brand fatigue and everything, Brit has largely been trying to support the claim that others could feel that as a reason (despite brand strength) that they will not purchase the title. That doesn't mean the title will sell poorly, or that so many others feel this way about SM that it will sell terribly; what we're trying to land on, is whether or not SM will surpass the sales of things like GOW or break other records, in which at the upper echelon where you are trying to reach for record breaking numbers, this could pose to be a problem for SM.

I want to be clear, during the time of Arkham Asylum and City, those were ground breaking video games for super heroes and did <400K and < 2 Million sold respectively on a cross platform setup. And this is during Christopher Nolan's batman. The idea that Spider Man, is something unique, is interesting, because Arkham Knight was this super duper high production video game, that broke graphics barriers too, and continue the evolve the good gameplay on the series, and if I recall correctly, did not manage to break 8 million. It got to 5 million fast, but from my quick google fu - I could not find any other record milestone numbers. And that was for a multiplatform title.

And when we look back at brands. You can look during the same time periods of Arkham Asylum to Knight and see that from a graphics novel/comics area, few of their books managed to break top 500 best sellers. Profit wise, it was absolutely dwarfed to the profits being generated by the movies and by the video games.

Video entertainment is where these superheroes have been earning their payday.

So when it comes to brand, and we talk about SM and everything about SM. These movies, at least from the revenue perspective, have largely been the biggest money makers for the spiderman vertical. Not the comics. Not the animated series. And not merchandising because from a friend who creates art work, they don't owe Marvel/DC licensing fees for selling artwork of those characters.

So when we talk about impact from the movies, the movies have largely been the biggest way, the mainstream audience has connected with Spider Man. Outside of that, where the comics and the cosplay and that, stuff, it's all hardcore, and it's reach hasn't nearly been as large as it's movies, or likely it's games.

And that should that matter, because huge success depends on hitting large groups of people. And if those mainstream people, are turned off by the movies, or whatever, fatigued by them, then perhaps they don't care to have another go at it. At least, from the perspective that it would cause people to run out and buy a playstation and buy the video game.

So once again, perspective here, we're not saying it's going to bomb. Just saying, there are probably some likely reasons why it may not break God of War numbers. And we've a cited one. I mean, it being exclusive to playstation doesn't help its chances of breaking 8 million either.

So I don't have the effort to cite all of my sources and google fu everything and paste it back here, but I would not mislead you on purpose on this. If I'm wrong, I'm okay with that, just show me where I'm wrong.
 
It won't do God of War numbers

I actually believe it will surpass God of War numbers. Some of the specialized bundles have already sold-out and the preorder numbers from GameStop I have heard (within my area anyhow), are tracking higher than God of War. Plus, I'm pretty sure Spider-Man enjoys a larger fanbase and appeal over God of War.
 
I actually believe it will surpass God of War numbers. Some of the specialized bundles have already sold-out and the preorder numbers from GameStop I have heard (within my area anyhow), are tracking higher than God of War. Plus, I'm pretty sure Spider-Man enjoys a larger fanbase and appeal over God of War.

I just don't think it will review as well and that would be reflected in the sales. God of War is a once in a generation quality experience, like Last of Us last gen.
 
Why are some of you trying to use movie sales or franchise popularity in other media to project game sales? Spider-Man is one of if not the most popular marvel characters ever but if this was not a Sony exclusive with a first class marketing budget what would your projections be? Spider-Man’s popularity hasn’t transferred all that well to the gaming market. In fact most comic/movie franchises have had a hard time finding success in the gaming market. Until Batman:Arkham showed up and broke the mold any marvel/dc games were mainly held with skepticism pre-launch.

This game is going to need to be really really good for it to sell well.

I hate to use vgchartz, but there are a ton of Spider-Man games on there whose sales benefitted very little from the overall popularity of the titled character.
 
I just don't think it will review as well and that would be reflected in the sales. God of War is a once in a generation quality experience, like Last of Us last gen.

I don't know, every single preview I've read or seen has been hugely complimentary / crazy excited having been allowed to play through the first act in their own time. The most damning things I'm seeing is that it's an open world game with some familiar open world mechanics. Everybody has praised the city, Spider-man, Peter Parker, the animation, the web-slinging and the combat - which is everything you need to get right. I also think Spider-Man has a broader appeal than God of War as both a character, genre and age ranges.

I am intrigued that the discussion of some bad movies several years ago impacting games sales. Does this really happen? If you're a gamer and a game is good, do you really ignore all that buzz because you didn't like the Andrew Garfield movies? Can we expect people to ignore Tomb Raider because of the lacklustre movie? I'm sure some people will but a significant enough number to impact sales? Call me sceptical.
 
I've unfortunately limited time here, so I'm going to make a low quality post on this, brain spilled out on paper.
I think ti's important to remember that the position we've taken isn't that Spider Man won't be popular, it will be, it's just whether or not it will be able to break 8 million.
Good post, good point.

One thing missing here is how much games sell anyway for comparison. From Wiki...

UC4 - 8.7M
MH:W - 8.3M
HZD - 7.6M
GoW - 5M
TW3 - 4.8M
GTS - 3.3M

I suppose the argument here is, if the game is HZD/GoW good, it'd sell 7 million, and then on top of that you could get a few million spidery fans - that is, the market for SM is seen as more than just the ordinary 'great game' audience. That's where I think the latest film is a positive. This game after The Amazing Spider Man would see weakened interest because those films were weak, but Homecoming has renewed interest I think. I think there's a load of younger fans and reinvigorated older fans. Hard to prove, but things like the 'favourite spidey' poll and Marvel hero rankings show Spidey is strong.

I am intrigued that the discussion of some bad movies several years ago impacting games sales.
As Iroboto clarifies, it's not so much the movies souring the game sales as much as whether the movies have improved sales notably or not. Will people who wouldn't buy the game if it was an Insomniac original IP (Silk-Worm Guy? Silly-String Man?) be interested in buying it now because it's Spider-Man, or are they coming away from the movies and thinking 'meh' as they might if it was a film tie-in to The Amazing Spider Man 2?
 
As Iroboto clarifies, it's not so much the movies souring the game sales as much as whether the movies have improved sales notably or not. Will people who wouldn't buy the game if it was an Insomniac original IP (Silk-Worm Guy? Silly-String Man?) be interested in buying it now because it's Spider-Man, or are they coming away from the movies and thinking 'meh' as they might if it was a film tie-in to The Amazing Spider Man 2?

All questions that can't be answered. You can be certain that an IP like Spider-Man is going to be immediately more recognisable and get more media coverage than Infamous or Prototype or any non-established IP but thats why IP like Spider-Man is valuable, it's got instant brand recognition and you're marketing can be honed because you don't need to explain who Spider-Man or Peter Parker are as Sucker Punch did for Cole Magrath in Infamous 1 and 2 and Delsin Rowe Second Son. I thoroughly enjoyed Second Son and have played good and bad campaigns over and over but even I had to google Delsin's last name.

The Walking Dead comics are doing better than ever despite the TV series having become tediously dull for the last three seasons. Do movies sell well off good books? Not necessarily so, they stand on their own. I can't think of any media where experiences, good or bad, necessarily spell any indication of success in another. :nope:

In two months time, when the game has been out a month, we'll know. :yep2:

I suppose the argument here is, if the game is HZD/GoW good, it'd sell 7 million, and then on top of that you could get a few million spidery fans - that is, the market for SM is seen as more than just the ordinary 'great game' audience.

This assumes HZD and GOW as genres and their thematic appeal are roughly equal to Spider-Man. I maintain that Spider-Man has a broader appeal than either. As I've commented before, HZD is the dumbest premise I can think of for a game for a good long while and I dismissed most of it's early coverage because robot dinosaurs is dumb (and somewhat because Killzone was just not interesting). Fantastic game, though and I realised that from the reviews. I bet plenty of people who would have enjoyed GOW and HZD never got past the 'stupid robot dinosaurs' and 'button-masher fight game' images that these games have. But Spider-Man. You probably know if you want to play it without marketing doing much.
 
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The game won't sell solely because it's Spiderman, the game needs great reviews too to get the perfect combo.

At the same META score, a known IP has an advantage compared to a new IP for more sales.
 
I voted 8-10M based on my assumptions, that:
-The game will be reviewed well (8.7-9.3 metacritic)
-Will be marketed well
-Will be fairly heavily bundled

It obviously won't happen overnight.. it will take at least a year to reach this goal. I expect it to sell over 8M lifetime.
 
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How it impacts hardware sales will be interesting. Insomniac is there to sell copies, but sony also wants to use this to bring more comicbook fans to the platform.

I expect GoW-level sales, and 85 metacritic (judging from the early impressions)
 
https://www.gamesindustry.biz/artic...pider-man-is-fastest-selling-game-of-the-year

PS4 exclusive Spider-Man is the fastest-selling game of 2018 so far.

It narrowly beat previous record-holder Far Cry 5 (which was available on more platforms), and sold almost double that of the previous biggest exclusive of the year - God of War on PS4.

Not only that, but it's the fastest-selling Marvel-branded game in history, beating previous title LEGO Marvel Super Heroes by a big margin.

It's also the fastest selling individual format game since the PS4 version of Call of Duty: WWII in November last year. Spider-Man is the latest in a long-line of hit PS4 exclusive single-player games.

I know I told someone that Spider-Man will outsell God of War... we're talking Marvel's most valuable franchise and a fan-base that was waiting for a good game (which it is).
 
Great! If this does well as it's looking like it then it'll open a floodgate to a Marvel Games Universe, just imagine the inevitable Ironman, Hulk and Thor game using next gen engine.
 
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