How many semi-to large budget market flops can studios survive next gen.?

I don't mean to be rude, but honestly, how can any of you guys believe those budget numbers? IMO, it's pretty obvious why the industry never releases any information on estimated, game specific budgets, even in quarterly or yearly financial reports; the numbers are nowhere near the levels of Hollywood.

Why does that matter? Because the industry has been long searching for the air of legitimacy, and believe it or not, expensive projects are a key method of attaining this; especially in the American market. Until the industry even somewhat matches Hollywood-level numbers, you can bet we, the general public, won't find out anything specific. Ever. Hence why I don't believe these numbers.

Not to mention, IMO it's insane to believe that an almost completely digital creation can even come close to matching low to mid range Hollywood film budgets. Aside from miniscule voicework costs and R&D, the massive majority of game development costs are developer salaries. Middleware and licenses are slowly becoming more expensive, but I'd be completely surprised if the average game's budget isn't still 80%+ developer salaries. (Remember, I'm not counting marketing because Hollywood doesn't include marketing costs in their budgets either).

Three other points hinder these 'facts' about current game budgets. One, if anyone remembers the FFVII commercial, the narration during the ad stated the game had a budget of $20 million. What many forget is an interview with Andrew House (from SCEA) in 1998, after VII's massive success, where he admitted that they 'exaggerated the costs' to build anticipation.

The other two points concern Sega, who has divulged more budget info than any other studio. One was the budget for Shenmue, which many have simply taken as fact to be $20 million as well. In actuality, the budget was later revealed in an earnings report (due to the 'unfortunate' sales flop) in early 2001. It was over 25% below $20m, closer to 13m.

Finally, comes Sega's Ryu Ga Gotoku, that just recently released in Japan. The budget has been revealed by Sega to be 'over $20m', and as such, by Sega's claim, 'one of the most expensive games ever made'. Is it possible that Sega is fudging the numbers? Of course, and in fact I'd expect it. But no amount of fudging or even blatant lunacy would cause a company (even one as idiotic as Sega) to state the aforementioned in light of competing games costing twice as much.

Uh, anyways, sorry for the long post. Just to summarize, I don't believe these numbers in the least, and I don't think any of you should either. They don't make sense, are contradicted by the examples I provided above, and are pretty much just straight up hyperbole tripe that game companies don't mind floating around, because it provides the illusion that the industry throws around way more money than they actually do.
 
Heian-kyo said:
In actuality, the budget was later revealed in an earnings report (due to the 'unfortunate' sales flop) in early 2001. It was over 25% below $20m, closer to 13m.
I can't edit my post, but this is incorrect. I typoed and hit the wrong numpad key. The last sentence is supposed to read: It was under 25% below 20m, closer to 16m.
 
$50K yearly salary * 60 employees * 2 years of production = 6 million dollars. That's without benefits, insurance. Without hardware (average workstation $2-5K, software for it $2-10K, and you can be sure you'll need to update at least once), without renting office space, paying bills for electricity, phones, high speed internet. Additional costs to fly people around for E3 and such, for interviewing new hires, buying sandwitches and paying taxi for publisher executives, renting a restaurant for an Xmas party...

Now, experienced developers may cost way more than $50K, especially programmers and management, and some games have been in development for quite more than 2 years, and especially in the case of an RPG, the crew may end up being even bigger.
And Final Fantasy games have an insane amount of top-notch CGI. One minute of animation in that quality is usually way above $100K, so 20-30 minutes of CGI cost another bunch of millions. Even though Square produces most of it with an inhouse studio, their equipment and salaries amount to a rather large extra in the budget as well.

I'd say that 30-40 million for the latest FF games is perfectly reasonable.
 
Heian-kyo said:
I can't edit my post, but this is incorrect. I typoed and hit the wrong numpad key. The last sentence is supposed to read: It was under 25% below 20m, closer to 16m.

In response I would agree with Laa-Yosh comments on this. Team size, experience, and game creation technologies (hardware, software, liscenses etc.) takes a big chunk of it. Although in your post you discounted the marketing part of it, A big title with this type of $$ would be a factor even if you dont count it when comparing it to Hollywood films and the like.

I myself have been trying to look into a smaller budget game creation (say the lvls of the GBA) and even then I'm looking at around $250k out the gate and thats not even with putting the whole development team together with final costs etc. (Although I'm adding building lease, equiptment etc in this starting total.) So I can see the $$$ could be at or exceeding the lvls discussed here.

I do think that costs continuing a franchise (even a major title) can be kept within reason through good business models and employee management to name a few. It's almost like companys like to say they have x amount of people working on the title costing them x millions extra in development cost to warrent the outcome. (extra publicity and hype? some workout some fall flat) I see this route being a negative as seen with some developers cutting jobs like EA's recent job cuts and some older companies that once were very healthy go sell assests or properties or close their doors altogether.

As long as technologies (hardware / software) push forward at such a rapid pace its hard to see the numbers level off especially with trying to keep a title within time frames of current technologies etc. Seems the only way the large, cutting edge developers can keep titles in the time frame at this point is to place more $$$ and people to get the most out of it.
 
Heiyan-kyo, you doubt the monetary development numbers put forth by the likes of Kojima, Mistwalker, Kaz, SK, Shiny, (Enter the Matrix) Take Two, MS, Square-Enix, etc.? And are these numbers they report truly comprehensive? Covering the range of all programmer salaries, concept artists, in-house developed physics & game engines, + any other various technologies used, utilities, rent of studio space, sound engineers, (like Polyphony's) licenses, plane tickets, voice actors, hw dev. kits, motion-capture equipment & actors, etc.? (not everyone uses middleware, & x this over a 2-3 year cycle) I don't truly see the purpose of over-inflating said numbers, esp. those companies which are publically traded. (which most are)

I agree with Laa-Yosh as well, 80% is far too large a number to designate solely towards developer salary, if anything were all of the associated expenses truly tabulated & taken into account, they would exceed even what has been posted here. This is nothing to be braggadocious about, only the game's sales & the resulting profits as it is a billion-dollar industry. (it needs nor requires any validation, as the numbers do not lie) It does nothing to serve to build consumer anticipation imo. The average gamer could care less about what was spent on R&D, only the finalized product. I remember Shiny having to sell so many copies of ETM just to break even on dev. costs. Were they including the mass marketing as well?
 
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Regarding the Revolution, it will be viewed as a godsend to some, & the Omen to others. (studios that produce a large amount of cross-platform software) Nintendo is redefining the gamer controlled interface, a very bold & risky move. Though it has the potential to reap huge benefits in gameplay interaction if implemented correctly, or conversely could be an unmitigated disaster. According to those developers (2 friends included) & media who have actually had hands-on time with the Revmote have nothing but praise for it's precise accuracy & control. As well as the numerous interactive possibilities it presents.

Back on topic, it will be a haven for smaller development houses working within limited budgets. (Nippon-Ichi is already onboard afaik) As well as the largest developers who want to try innovative gameplay aspects unattainable upon the other consoles. It practically forces the developers to design around the controller, to become or attempt to design creatively. Which should ideally result in more creative software, niche titles should flourish on the platform as well as more mainstream titles. Nintendo is already actively assisting in Revmote controller utilization for the larger studios developing for it. However, this is a double-edged sword so to speak. Much of the Rev's software as a result will be both unique & exclusive.

But without a relatively early high (& sustained) adoption rate, studios will drop support for it even more quickly than on the GC due to this very interface. The Revolution will/should also see games with high production values, moreso next-gen than the few exclusives that the GC possessed. (no one dug deeply enough into the system other than F5, Capcom, Retro, Rare, & now Aonuma's Zelda Division of EAD imo) The controller (w/nunchuku) was practically tailor made for the fpser genre, which even Nintendo currently is developing in-house, & no I'm not referring to Prime 3 either. Cost & risk will be greatly reduced vs. that of the competition when producing its software as well.
 
I agree with you ERP. $100 million but it will be at 5yrs or more. I would be suprised if we see that budget any earlier. I do wonder if outside costs, (i.e. advertising, shipping, etc.) is included with these development costs? Anyone know a definate answer or is it just common knowledge if they do or not?
 
ERP said:
And I know of several titles that cost more than all those Final Fantasies.
Mark my words we will see the first 100 million dollar game in the next 5 years.

This was the exact type of confirmation I was looking for, my thanks ERP. Development costs skyrocketing into the stratosphere next-gen was bound to happen, as the industry is currently globally expanding. (which leads many to believe that the crash is inevitable, esp. with the used game market flourishing so) But what developers could handle such an enormous price tag, & yet still return a profit? Bungie? EAD? (could, but they would not) Konami? Valve? Id? Square-Enix? Polyphony? Epic? Capcom? Inquiring minds want to know, & what does this mean to PC game development? Whose technological curve will pass those of consoles? (which some have already) Their sales are in decline, (according to the NPD & various analysts) & are definitely not as lucrative as console software. More of an increase of PC-to-console cross-platform titles?
 
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jpr27 said:
I agree with you ERP. $100 million but it will be at 5yrs or more. I would be suprised if we see that budget any earlier. I do wonder if outside costs, (i.e. advertising, shipping, etc.) is included with these development costs? Anyone know a definate answer or is it just common knowledge if they do or not?

I would think that they are classified seperately jpr. I seem to remember now that advertising costs & the marketing departments being listed as wholly seperate, not inclusive of the R&D & software production costs. Of course the magnitude of the title has a direct influence on its marketing budget.
 
Square, EAD, Bungie, Rockstar, and Polyphony are pretty much a lock to easily make back whatever they spend and then some [as things currently stand]. As long as Square-Enix is putting out FF and DQ they'll be making profit on day on pre-sales in Japan alone. Everything else is pure profit. Of course, not every game these companies puts out is such a sure thing, but the ones that are generally do well enough so that it doesn't matter if they don't all do stellar. Though really, all bungie does these days is Halo so I'm sure they're set (not as if MS would ever let anything happen to them as long as the game is doing decently well).
 
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Serenity Painted Death said:
Square, EAD, Bungie, Rockstar, and Polyphony are pretty much a lock to easily make back whatever they spend and then some [as things currently stand]. As long as Square-Enix is putting out FF and DQ they'll be making profit on day on pre-sales in Japan alone. Everything else is pure profit. Of course, not every game these companies puts out is such a sure thing, but the ones that are generally do well enough so that it doesn't matter if they don't all do stellar. Though really, all bungie does these days is Halo so I'm sure their set (not as if MS would ever let anything happen to them as long as the game is doing decently well).

Agreed, I would have to include EA on that list as well. If for no other reason than the sheer number of titles & movie tie-in licenses (LOTR, Harry Potter, etc.) they release across multi-platforms. Then of course there is the yearly beast, (w/minimal tweaks most often) known as Madden.
 
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