Underperforming software, & missing the studios projected sales targets. (I'm looking squarely at Capcom & Namco/Bandai) Given the pre-requisite hardware requirements, (especially w/ the 360 & Live inclusion for instance) R&D allocations, programming complexity, team size, etc. I realize that there are a number of variables to consider here obviously but ERP, Faf, amongst other knowledgeable devs, (other specific names are currently eluding me so my apologies) what will be the minimum sales to garner company profitability? 400-500k? 500-700k? And the big budget titles like Fable, MGS4, Killzone 3, Gears of War, GoW, Halo 3, FF, RE5, GTA, Gran Turismo, Splinter Cell, etc.? A million-2 million+? I'm curious as to your estimates, $10 million seems like the entry point to the 1st generation of mid-range on the 360 afaik, I would assume that the PS3 would be no different in this cost aspect. I no longer see 150-300k+ in sales being considered as a monetary nor a market success. (or simply breaking even for that matter) Games simply cannot be designed that cost-effective any longer. (Nippon Ichi, Atlus, etc.) But what of the aforementioned huge budget titles? They could easily approach & surpass $50 million dollars in cost.
Seeing as some current high-budget generation titles have reached or surpassed the $30 million dollar mark, I would expect this number to at least double on some of the higher profile games. And 25-$30 million to be the new large budget cost point. How many titles of this magnitude, even at the mid level range, could a studio release & absorb before submerging? I can foresee this upcoming gen. bankrupting developers whose software underperforms, esp. the smaller houses. More company mergers & developers being bought outright as well. I say upcoming because the remaining 2 industry leaders have not yet released their next-generation consoles. I also disregard titles like Kameo & PD0, & any other games that were primarily designed for the XBX, & received the fairly quick port up to the 360. (as cost attributed to these titles don't accurately reflect development from the ground up on the current 360's very different architecture)
Due to this, I expect a stifling of creativity & an increase in mascot, movie, & even comic branded & based software. (even moreso than this generation, if you can possibly imagine) Or at the very least, a large influx of similarly themed designed games occupying the same genre. Third person military combat action based, (Gears of War for ex.) tactical or semi-tactical fpsers, (Clancy & Clancy-esque, Halo, Killzone, etc.) or software involving your character facing a seemingly insurmountable screenfull of enemies, & of course your GTA-esque free roaming clones, nigh-photorealistic racers, & sports based titles. I'm certainly not saying that any of these games will not be quality mind you, but the thread of similarity is already becoming visible, even at this early stage. I sincerely hope that I am wrong however.
edit: Revolution thoughts forthcoming
Seeing as some current high-budget generation titles have reached or surpassed the $30 million dollar mark, I would expect this number to at least double on some of the higher profile games. And 25-$30 million to be the new large budget cost point. How many titles of this magnitude, even at the mid level range, could a studio release & absorb before submerging? I can foresee this upcoming gen. bankrupting developers whose software underperforms, esp. the smaller houses. More company mergers & developers being bought outright as well. I say upcoming because the remaining 2 industry leaders have not yet released their next-generation consoles. I also disregard titles like Kameo & PD0, & any other games that were primarily designed for the XBX, & received the fairly quick port up to the 360. (as cost attributed to these titles don't accurately reflect development from the ground up on the current 360's very different architecture)
Due to this, I expect a stifling of creativity & an increase in mascot, movie, & even comic branded & based software. (even moreso than this generation, if you can possibly imagine) Or at the very least, a large influx of similarly themed designed games occupying the same genre. Third person military combat action based, (Gears of War for ex.) tactical or semi-tactical fpsers, (Clancy & Clancy-esque, Halo, Killzone, etc.) or software involving your character facing a seemingly insurmountable screenfull of enemies, & of course your GTA-esque free roaming clones, nigh-photorealistic racers, & sports based titles. I'm certainly not saying that any of these games will not be quality mind you, but the thread of similarity is already becoming visible, even at this early stage. I sincerely hope that I am wrong however.
edit: Revolution thoughts forthcoming
