I think we'll see what happens. Right now, I expect FF13 to be PS3 exclusive, but the FF13 Versus, which should be the spiritual successor to FFXI, should be an online game that will be released on PC, 360 and PS3 together. I think this one will be more important for them than you think, as I'm sure they smell a WoW like opportunity here.
Are you saying "should be" as in you would like it to be, or as in you think it is..?
Because not a single announcement or indication has been given that would lead you to believe that FFXIII Versus is any kind of "spiritual successor" to FFXI or that it would be an online game.. Form the information known so far it's pretty clear that the game shares much more incommon to Kingdom Hearts than any other title..
I don't understand how you came to such an obtuse conclusion..?
I do believe that SquareEnix will need to hedge their bets though - if there aren't enough consoles sold by release time, they will go for the 360 market. But since they can, especially after FFXII, expect all PS3 owners in Japan to buy the game, as well as a very considerable percentage in Europe and US, I think they can stay doing an exclusive. No doubt that they will 'discuss' this with Sony though, to see if they can get some extra money from Sony for doing so. If they don't, then they might still go for a 360 release. But not on day one.
I think we'll know more by E3. In the meantime, discussion is pretty pointless.
I personally don't think that FFXIII will ever find it's way to another platform.. Partly because SE have already made this clear eons ago (that the core FF games will stay exclusive to Playstation) but mostly because SE have a history of showing that they are not afraid of taking their time with a core FF game in terms of development..
It took almost 3-4 years for the release of FFXII after the release of FFXI (IIRC) and I highly doubt SE would release the game anytime before at least fall 2008.. By then SE would have a much larger install base (possibly 2-3 million in Japan?) and could sell comfortably..
Also considering FF titles have a tendency to see Europian release a good 12 months prior to the Japanese launch (I blame localisation.. F**kin' europians having so many bloody languages
) with the US release somewhere in between, it gives even more time for the PS3 install base to have filled out quite nicely, which is especially useful for these regions where JRPGs don't tend to have as much appeal as in the east..
I think it would also be very safe to assume that at least one price cut would have occured by then and I think it's even safer to assume that the launch of a "system-seller" like FFXIII would definitely convince all those PS2 owners sitting on the fence and waiting for it to go out and buy the machine (I know I'd buy a PS3 for FFXIII & I'm sure alot of people would..)
I think alot of people here are underestimating how long it takes SE to develop these FF titles and if were talking 2-4 years for a PS2 FF game then how much more time do we expect a game like FFXIII to take cosidering the massively increased time required for asset development, sky-high production values, tech start-up (which seems to have been put in place now) and more importantly; QA, focus testing and polish.. Which for games of this size, I would imagine require a heck of alot of attention to get to the quality levels FF games are so accustomed to having..