FF13 Exclusivity still being discussed?

Hardknock said:
Sony owns non-voting stock so they wouldn't have any say in exclusivity.
Click to expand...

But they have influence.

Shifty Geezer said:
Of course there's a couple of exceptions. For XB to lose Halo exclusivity, that'd open up a large market elsewhere. Even then, it'd make little odds to the platform I think. People aren't going to buy a PS3 just to play Halo when the XB360 is cheaper, and Wii isn't going to give the same experience. So Halo going cross-platform, which would cause a huge furore across the whole intarweb, would probably account for little sales difference of the XB360 platform.
Click to expand...

This is a vast topic with many tangents as you point out, but on this one point: Halo moving cross platform would cause a dent, especially if you are looking at it from early adopter standpoint. Halo is one of the few compelling titles on the market that actually drive adoption. A lot (most?) consumers are library/price oriented, but there is a cause effect relationship.

Console Has Game X => People Buy Console A => Install Base Grows => More Game Come => More Sales => Install Base Grows

Right now Sony has effectively seen them get the flip flop on this cycle from last generation to a degree. Whoever has the install base will get the software; whoever gets the software gets console sales; whoever gets more console sales gets even more software; wash, rinse, repeat.

Where exclusives fill in are in regards to overall library, filling in niches (driving, shooters, RPG, sports, etc... dominating a niche can be significant in terms of demographic sales), but also exclusives are vital for "jump starting" sales.

If Halo 3 was multiplatform, for example, it is fairly certain that 360 initial sales would have been more sluggish as some consumers would fence sit to see if the loss of one of the few compelling pieces of software could result in the other platform having a better total library. Halo (~5M) and Halo 2 (~8M) accounted for ~21% and ~33% market penetration of Xbox consumers -- and that doesn't include used sales, game barrowing, rentals, Halo parties, and so forth. I would venture a guess that 50% of Xbox gamers are Halo consumers of one sort or another.

Moving a franchise with such a deep penetration to a tertiary potiion would send ripples, specifically at launch. A 25% dent in initial sales is significant (which could be likely due to mindshare issues as well as consumers of titles like Halo (online, social gaming, skill rankings, more "hardcore" serious gaming experience) also tend to be avid gamers), it is the difference between 10M units shipped for MS and 7.5M units shipped by the end of their first complete CY.

Of course one can argue without Halo MS still has Mass Effect, Gears of War, and a number of exclusives going to more equal ground (GTA, DMC, AC, etc) but that raises the question: If you take a title like Halo out of MS's exclusive portfolio does it have the same market weight?

If we take Mario and Zelda out of Nintendo's exclusivity portfolio do they have the same power to attract 3rd party support and, as important, initial early adopter sales?

It is an intricate web that is weaved with these relationships as they feed off of eachother, but there are some titles that have significant consumer appeal and dominate certain demographics. Losing the mindshare (even just online fans spreading positive/negative vibes over such shifts to their more casual friends as well as influencing early adoption sales) can have ripples.

Now a game like DMC4 isn't such a huge title. Neither is Ace Combat 6. Or Virtua Fighter 5. Or new IPs like Assassin's Creed. But you add up those shifts plus more significant moves like GTAIV getting parity and you do see a huge swing in market mindshare and library status which IS impacting 3rd party decisions in regards to platform publishing. The equalization of 3rd party software is pretty striking (if not expected by some of us), but there does become a point where it does begin to tip from equalization to a true market shift. With the price point disparity a move like FF or MGS could effectively mark such a transition. In the least the shift in the 360 becoming a major factor in regards to lead SKU as well as attracting much strong 3rd party support does show a change in fortune for MS and new competition that Sony has not had to deal with before. How it will all fold out over the next 3 or 4 years will be interesting because the market factors right now -- Wii popularity in the mainstream, HD media, online gaming, JP/NA/EU showing distinct differences in preference, etc -- will be interesting. Right now it seems 3rd parties are seriously hedging their bets across as much as possible. This movement is really putting a lot more emphasis on 1st party titles and the quality of such as well as accessibility (availability, affordability) of the platforms. All these forces, and personal preference, do make for a melting pot of ideas and opinions!
 
Joshua Luna said:
Console Has Game X => People Buy Console A => Install Base Grows => More Game Come => More Sales => Install Base Grows
Click to expand...

Nice. That is the cycle of console growth and why in all of the armchair analyses I have tried to emphasis the first couple of years/key games in a console's life. Price cuts have a sort of multiplier effect in this cycle.

FF13 is one of the console pushing games, one of the only games that are popular in all 3 major regions. It is a big deal if anything happens to this exclusivity from Sony's viewpoint and I don't know how much their ownership in SE will affect things (I see the exclusivity agreement as very Japanese traditional and not financially rational).

Fu3lFr3nzy said:
Then what would you classify FFXI as?
Click to expand...

D'oh!! FF 11 (a very unlike FF game) was SE branching out into the lucrative microtransaction-rich model of MMORPGs and is anomoly to how they've done things. I'm sure they may try this route again. Had they been hugely successful maybe their platform exclusive model would have changed.
 
scooby_dooby said:
Quick glance at the sales charts tells you all you need to know:

GTA
Halo
FF
Grand Turismo
Click to expand...

Yeah these are the ones I had in mind. The affects of Gran Turismo 3 on early PS2 sales was immense. There is a near doubling in units due to the release of GT3 in 2001 (as well as the Euro launch).
Halo. Yeah.
GTA. The PS2 was already in top position (and I have to look at the numbers again) but I'll be damned if GTA didn't give another significant boost.
FF. Just don't know...
 
Last edited by a moderator:
scooby_dooby said:
Quick glance at the sales charts tells you all you need to know:

GTA
Halo
FF
Grand Turismo
Click to expand...

Do you think GodofWar moved systems or do you believe it was too late? Personally I think it was a mistake of Sony's to not put the sequel on ps3 instead of wasting the dev time on ps2 ...

Actually looking back I noticed something missing from the list. GC. Gamecube had no real system seller to move units. It had many "good games" but nothing that grabbed the imagination of the average gamer and said "you must buy this!". Interesting observation IMO.

Anyway I think that list is spot on for the "big hitters". If FF goes multi, I see Wii and xb360 opening quite a few doors that were once locked. :smile:
 
Nero - You're right on that FF is the least impactul of the four, mainly because it doesn't not do amazingly well in the US (2.5million for FFX, 8mil worldwide)
 
TheChefO said:
Do you think GodofWar moved systems or do you believe it was too late? Personally I think it was a mistake of Sony's to not put the sequel on ps3 instead of wasting the dev time on ps2 ...

Actually looking back I noticed something missing from the list. GC. Gamecube had no real system seller to move units. It had many "good games" but nothing that grabbed the imagination of the average gamer and said "you must buy this!". Interesting observation IMO.

Anyway I think that list is spot on for the "big hitters". If FF goes multi, I see Wii and xb360 opening quite a few doors that were once locked. :smile:
Click to expand...

Despite all the hype, God of War sold only 2.48million worldwide.

GC's big hitters are Mario Kart(6.6) Smash Bros (6.58), Super Mario (5.89), Zelda (4.35)

http://www.vgcharts.org/worldtotals.php?name=&console=GC&publisher=&sort=Total
 
TheChefO said:
Do you think GodofWar moved systems or do you believe it was too late? Personally I think it was a mistake of Sony's to not put the sequel on ps3 instead of wasting the dev time on ps2 ...

Actually looking back I noticed something missing from the list. GC. Gamecube had no real system seller to move units. It had many "good games" but nothing that grabbed the imagination of the average gamer and said "you must buy this!". Interesting observation IMO.

Anyway I think that list is spot on for the "big hitters". If FF goes multi, I see Wii and xb360 opening quite a few doors that were once locked. :smile:
Click to expand...


GoW came too late to easily see if it moved systems. Maybe it did but GoW didn't sell more than 2 million copies (correct me if I'm wrong) with PS2 install base of (@time) over 100 million units. GoW does not count.
Even though it is imperfect, I recommend that you go to the below link and cross reference game releases with console units sold.

http://www.scei.co.jp/corporate/data/bizdataps2_e.html
------------
As for the Gamecube problems of selling...I just don't know. I do know that after buying a refurbished GC at a Gamestop for ~45 dollars, and buying used games for sub 20usd, my GC has brought me more enjoyment than my PS2.
 
scooby_dooby said:
Despite all the hype, God of War sold only 2.48million worldwide.

GC's big hitters are Mario Kart(6.6) Smash Bros (6.58), Super Mario (5.89), Zelda (4.35)

http://www.vgcharts.org/worldtotals.php?name=&console=GC&publisher=&sort=Total
Click to expand...

Nice. You got the correct GoW numbers.
This Nintendo business - the problem with selling GC - had a lot to do with 3rd party exclusives, and horrible marketing. The heavy hitters above (I own 3 of them and enjoyed all very much) are all closely attached to GC hardware, in that if you bought a GC you would get them but I don't think that they increased the GC user base. But relative to the number of GCs sold, they had a much greater impact than GoW did to the PS2.
 
NERO said:
What do you identify as the system movers of last gen?
Click to expand...
Depends who you're moving them too ;) Buzz and EyeToy and SingStar sold PS2s to some people who wouldn't have bought consoles for all the Halo and GTs in the world. Biggest system movers is a slightly different question. GT3 would be one of 'em, as early into PS2's life it showcased the machine and attracted a lot of keen hardcore- and race-gamers, which helped establish a viable user base. Halo did similar for XB.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top