Euro, US and JP 2011 YTD Sales

[AlphaWolf]

You are miming data to fit your bias, this is a red herring. I'm looking at Nintendo's graph seeing as though they are the only ones providing a full view of the market over the last 5 years.

What the hell are you talking about being a red herring? I've done nothing but provide numbers, how have I presented them that shows bias? I'd be happy to provide holiday data for the EU if I had them.

Your point about the xbox numbers for holiday season are moot because it won't change the conclusion. Everyone does better doing the holiday season and the Ps3 is still going to outsell the 360 this year and the next.

What is the conclusion to a forum discussion? And while everyone does better in the US holiday, it does not mean that they do the same amount better.

 

[Ghostz]

What the hell are you talking about being a red herring? I've done nothing but provide numbers, how have I presented them that shows bias? I'd be happy to provide holiday data for the EU if I had them.



What is the conclusion to a forum discussion? And while everyone does better in the US holiday, it does not mean that they do the same amount better.

Everybody does better during holiday. It works like this: You can say they'll sell @ X amount more percentage wise during holiday and Microsoft would have to sell Y more percentage wise ( roughly ) double than Sony's to change the base and to otherwise outsell them. It's simple math: X x Y = Z.

 

[AlphaWolf]

Because Ps3 Slim is when you actually saw an uptick in hardware and software sales in the US markets relative to the 360 install base. Microsoft hasn't really made up that difference anywhere else even with the Kinect.

Since the ps3 slim in the US market the PS3 has saw almost a 50% jump in monthly sales. Since the introduction of Kinect the 360 has seen a greater than 40% jump in monthly sales. Obviously those aren't the only promotions accounting for the changes, but Kinect has definitely made a difference. And 40% of 400k is more than 50% of 250k, so in real numbers Kinect may have had a bigger impact on total sales numbers in the US. I don't have numbers for europe or I'd provide those as well.

Everybody does better during holiday. It works like this: You can say they'll sell @ X amount more percentage wise during holiday and Microsoft would have to sell Y more percentage wise ( roughly ) double than Sony's to change the base and to otherwise outsell them. It's simple math: X x Y = Z.

Everybody does better, but in the US, the 360 has done more better than the PS3. Oct-Dec 2010 (3.55m) for the 360 is more than Jan-Sept 2011 (3.45m). Oct-Dec 2010 for the ps3 (1.99m) is 20% less than the 2.42m they moved in Jan-Sept.

So it's not near as simple as you seem to believe, and again I'd love to see the europe numbers for Oct-Dec.

 

[Ghostz]

Since the ps3 slim in the US market the PS3 has saw almost a 50% jump in monthly sales. Since the introduction of Kinect the 360 has seen a greater than 40% jump in monthly sales. Obviously those aren't the only promotions accounting for the changes, but Kinect has definitely made a difference. And 40% of 400k is more than 50% of 250k, so in real numbers Kinect may have had a bigger impact on total sales numbers in the US. I don't have numbers for europe or I'd provide those as well.

Yes, Kinect has made a difference in the US but it hasn't had any difference on the 360's overall output relative to the Ps3. The US alone hasn't been able to make up that difference. Every move Microsoft has made to move the needle, Sony's been right able to counter-stance them on everything to maintain its lead.

Everybody does better, but in the US, the 360 has done more better than the PS3. Oct-Dec 2010 (3.55m) for the 360 is more than Jan-Sept 2011 (3.45m). Oct-Dec 2010 for the ps3 (1.99m) is 20% less than the 2.42m they moved in Jan-Sept.

So it's not near as simple as you seem to believe, and again I'd love to see the europe numbers for Oct-Dec.

You are missing the actual math part of the equation.

Yes, I'm making it simple so you understand how it works.

Just because the 360 sells better during the holiday, it doesn't mean they have moved the needle to a difference to affect the overall outcome and yes, they would have to sell a little over twice as much during holiday in the US to change the conclusion of Ps3>360. Sony is going to run the hat-trick on them. 3 years running of absolute hardware sales lead.

 

[AlphaWolf]

So provide the numbers or you're really just trolling?

 

[Ghostz]

So provide the numbers or you're really just trolling?

Nintendo provided the numbers or are you simply ignoring them because it doesn't confirm your bias?

 

[AlphaWolf]

Nintendo provided some jan-sept numbers for europe. Lets see those oct-dec ones.

 

[NavNucST3]

Nintendo provided the numbers or are you simply ignoring them because it doesn't confirm your bias?

Since we have a full set of data from 2010 (as always from Nintendo for EU and actuals from US/JAPAN) would you stipulate that the 360 outsold the PS3 or no?

 

[Ghostz]

Since we have a full set of data from 2010 (as always from Nintendo for EU and actuals from US/JAPAN) would you stipulate that the 360 outsold the PS3 or no?

Well, we know the 360 didn't outsell the Ps3 in 2010. If I remember correctly: didn't Sony sell 13 million Ps3 compared to Microsoft's 11 million xboxes? What would make 2011 any different? What factors would change the outcome? I simply don't see it.

 

[NavNucST3]

Well, we know the 360 didn't outsell the Ps3 in 2010. If I remember correctly: didn't Sony sell 13 million Ps3 compared to Microsoft's 11 million xboxes? What would make 2011 any different? What factors would change the outcome? I simply don't see it.

So look we are either going to talk sell-in or sell-through. If we are going to talk sell-through which is what you have been currently arguing then, no, for the countries covered in the Nintendo slides + NPD + Media Create the 360 outsold the PS3 by 800k. If you want to switch the topic to sell-in then, yes, SNE shipped more. EDIT: I'll actually need to verify the shipments as well as I believe prior to the most recent MSFT numbers SNE and MSFT had shipped equal amounts.

CY 2010
PS3
US: 4,333,500
EU: 2,774,000
JA: 1,586,122

360
US: 6,764,089
EU: 2,549,000
JA: 210,826

 

[function]

It's absolutely true that we can't say that either MS or Sony are selling at a higher average price in Europe, and we don't know who will triumph globally over the whole of 2011. However, I will say (with some confidence but no science to back it up) that if MS were to start shipping the $200 / €150 Kinect SKUs that they could afford to ship, that they could do an awful lot of damage over Christmas.

I wonder if Xbox is going to have to subsidise some of the multi billion dollar payout to Nokia over the coming months and years (like it seemed to have to with Kin)? If MS chase short term Xbox margins rather than longer term market share then that probably does help shape a certain outcome.

Kinect could be a real gamechanger at Wii prices.

 

[function]

If Nintendo had anyone working at the company that didn't think the internet was just getting started a la 1994 (the way the net is now) then maybe they wouldn't have a different damn set of points cards for each of their damn devices...wtf...who dreams this stuff up at Nintendo?!?

I didn't know about that! Lol?

For the first time it looks like Nintendo are showing signs of being dangerously out of touch with gamers. Quite a few folks have questioned Nintendo's online strategy here. Especially in light of the growth of Xbox Live and Steam and even Facebook it looks like they could be unable to comprehend the importance of networking to a growing chunk of their target audience. And then there's the 3DS's graphics and the lack of a second analogue stick...

I just assumed Nintendo knew what they were doing after the success of the Wii, but maybe not.

 

[Ghostz]

So look we are either going to talk sell-in or sell-through. If we are going to talk sell-through which is what you have been currently arguing then, no, for the countries covered in the Nintendo slides + NPD + Media Create the 360 outsold the PS3 by 800k. If you want to switch the topic to sell-in then, yes, SNE shipped more. EDIT: I'll actually need to verify the shipments as well as I believe prior to the most recent MSFT numbers SNE and MSFT had shipped equal amounts.

CY 2010
PS3
US: 4,333,500
EU: 2,774,000
JA: 1,586,122

360
US: 6,764,089
EU: 2,549,000
JA: 210,826

Well I can only go by what the companies report, if Sony is reporting that basically they don't sell through about 50% of the crap they make, that would be a problem. I doubt Microsoft would make the same mistake. I thought the sell through number was 13 million and they sold 14.7 to retailers or something like that.

 

[NavNucST3]

Well I can only go by what the companies report, if Sony is reporting that basically they don't sell through about 50% of the crap they make, that would be a problem. I doubt Microsoft would make the same mistake. I thought the sell through number was 13 million and they sold 14.7 to retailers or something like that.

It isn't that pronounced as there are definitely a lot of countries not represented in the slides and while small as an individual data point when taken together they will definitely add up to a significant amount but also keep in mind that no one wants an empty channel, ever, so of course some will be on ships (~1 month sail time to some places), retail warehouses, and retail shelves.

In case anyone is interested the PS3 is currently BARELY underperforming in JA and outperforming in US/EU. The 360 is outperforming in US and EU while underperforming in JA. All numbers for CY2011.

 

[bkilian]

PS3 will probably be the best seller this year, then Wii and then Xbox. Unless Microsoft have an emergency price cut in November, but that seems unlikely.

In September NPD PS3 had sold just 50k less than 360 and the gap between them in PAL is just going to get bigger. Unless MS respond with a price cut I expect PS3 and 360 to be equal in shipment terms by Q2 2012. We will see if Sony plan on another price cut in May next year when they release their fiscal guidance. If they predict anything over 15m it means $199, which is when the PS3 will start catching the Wii in earnest.

I still think by the time all three consoles have finished selling PS3 will be within 10m of the Wii which is something no one would have thought possible at the beginning of the generation. I suppose I'm in the minority though...

Microsoft announced at E3 this year that the 360 would be the best selling console this year, worldwide. I'm pretty sure the XBox leadership would not have made an announcement of that kind unless they were close to 100% sure it was going to pan out.

 

[DuckThor Evil]

Because Ps3 Slim is when you actually saw an uptick in hardware and software sales in the US markets relative to the 360 install base. Microsoft hasn't really made up that difference anywhere else even with the Kinect.

Yes, Kinect has made a difference in the US but it hasn't had any difference on the 360's overall output relative to the Ps3. The US alone hasn't been able to make up that difference. Every move Microsoft has made to move the needle, Sony's been right able to counter-stance them on everything to maintain its lead.

You can't choose a singular point in a timeline that leaves lot's of stuff out to make a proper comparison.

I looked at the shipment numbers through July 2011 and if you include the quarter in which the PS3 Slim started to ship and count till the end of July 2011 PS3 has shipped 4.2 million more units, also in the calendar year of 2009 PS3 shipped 2.2M more units and in 2010 2.3M units more.

However 360 had really dry quarters just before it's own 360 S announcement. If you start counting when the 360 S came out and include the last four quarters that we have from both companies (7/2010-6/2011)
PS3 has only shipped 200k more units in that time, so out of that 4.2 million lead PS3 had shipped after the PS3 Slim came out, 4.0M was gained before the 360 S came out and only 200k after that...and if you count only the time Kinect has been out, the 360 has outshipped PS3 worldwide, until July 2011 atleast. Now I'm not saying that what I said there is the only relevant data point, but it does matter.

Also after the first three quarters of this calendar year X360 is up by 1.3 million units compard to its last year. PS3 was down 0.7M after the first two quarters (they haven't reported their July-September results yet)

360 had a solid third quarter with 2.7M units shipped (2.8M, 2010). I do expect Sony to have a very good number having just cut the price and all. So far Sony's best number for the period has been 3.5M units and with the lower price they should be able to pull atleast that.

Still to say that:

"Kinect has made a difference in the US but it hasn't had any difference on the 360's overall output relative to the Ps3"

Is clearly very wrong. You have to understand that the situation has been fluctuating and we are currently riding a PS3 price cut wave, to which MS hasn't responded. I do understand that eventhough the situation is fluctuating that PS3 has managed continually to shrunk the gap, but the situation is constantly changing. Without the recent price cut the PS3 imo would have quaranteed to have been behind the 360 during this calendar year. Holiday season is going to be interesting and if/when MS can squeeze a price cut of their own, things will even out again.


Copied from an excel file, looks a bit messy... edit mod fixed it. the table does contain minor rounding errors, but shouldn't matter.

MS      1-3,    4-6,    7-9,    10-12,    [calendar]    (cumulative)
2005    November launch         1,50       [1,50]           (1,50)
2006    1,70    1,80    1,00    4,40       [8,90]           (10,40)
2007    0,50    0,70    1,80    4,30       [7,30]           (17,70)
2008    1,30    1,30    2,20    6,00       [10,80]          (28,50)
2009    1,70    1,20    2,10    5,20       [10,20]          (38,70)
2010    1,50    1,50    2,80    6,30       [12,10]          (50,80)
2011    2,70    1,70    2.30    xxxx       [6,70]           (57,50)

Sony    1-3,    4-6,    7-9,    10-12,    [calendar]    (cumulative)
2006    November launch         1,70       [1,70]          (1,70)
2007    1,80    0,70    1,30    4,90       [8,70]          (10,40)
2008    2,20    1,60    2,40    4,50       [10,70]         (21,10)
2009    1,60    1,10    3,20    6,50       [12,40]         (33,50)
2010    2,20    2,40    3,50    6,30       [14,40]         (47,90)
2011    2,10    1,80    xxxx    xxxx       [3,90]          (51,80)

Mod-tip: Use

 tags to be able to format tables.[/B]

edit: thanks to the mod for cleaning it up :)
edit2: I corrected an error in the table. The latest MS quarter was 2.3M units not 2.7M like it was on the table. It changes some other stuff as well, but I leave them as they are.

 

[NathansFortune]

Microsoft announced at E3 this year that the 360 would be the best selling console this year, worldwide. I'm pretty sure the XBox leadership would not have made an announcement of that kind unless they were close to 100% sure it was going to pan out.

Sure you can. Just pretend you were misunderstood. It happens all the time. Unless Microsoft cut the price of the 360 in the next week or so I honestly can't see how they will regain the lead. It needs to be a nice $50 cut as well so that the cost of entry for Xbox+Kinect is $250. Cutting the price of Kinect to $129.99 and bundles by the same amount (which what I have heard) is not going to work.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

We'll revist this in a few months and see who was right.

 

[kagemaru]

After MS being so cocky with their claim at E3, I'm happy Sony is outselling them WW.

Microsoft announced at E3 this year that the 360 would be the best selling console this year, worldwide. I'm pretty sure the XBox leadership would not have made an announcement of that kind unless they were close to 100% sure it was going to pan out.

It would take a $100 price drop and channel stuffing for them to live up to that claim. I'm sorry, I think the 360 is a great platform, but making such a bold claim so early in the year was premature IMO.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

It would take a $100 price drop and channel stuffing for them to live up to that claim.

According to the Nintendo numbres there's only a difference of 800,000. A $100 price drop would result in massive uptake. You wouldn't need channel stuffing with such a significant price reduction. In fact that difference could possibly even be made up with just a very good marketing campaign.