Back in 2006 PC games had not started to take advantage of multi-core CPUs so I guess the 9 core Cell was surely a punch in the face to many developers. I remember Carmack whining about the pain of multi core development, how the junior programmers could screw up a program in ways they couldn´t do before. But do you know what, sooner or later they had to bite the bullit and adapt, in the case of the PS3 it was sooner rather than later. The same goes with the heterogenous characteristics of Cell. The Cell was far ahead of the curve, that it did not have a fully developed tool chain with feature rich libraries goes without saying, but still it had compilers and graphics libraries that were miles ahead of what the PS2 had at launch. If not MS offered a more feature rich toolset at the same time I doubt we would have this discussion, but kudos to MS for the good standard of their tools at launch.
All of this I generally agree with and have stated myself; Cell was ahead of the curve. I am a fan and proponent of this fact. BUT, the
difficulty associated with this being ahead is not any sort of benefit gained from that fact - which is the assertion of Hirai's which I simply do not believe is reflected in even his own view of things. Cell had the architecting it had for performance - the tools have come far enough along that Sony can stick to that line; there is no need in my mind to tack on other 'benefits' that were *of course* never considered as positives during the development of the architecture. Aka, punching developers in the face.
No I don´t think the PS4 will have such a steep learning curve, because by then massive multi-core as well as heterogenous designs will be a commodity. But I do think it will be a design that will take years to master fully, it will not rely on huge caches and bloated cores, instead it will be densly packed alus that will require careful tuning to get peak perfomance out of.
And so certainly you must agree that PS4 will not be a worse console for being easier to program for, right? As would Kaz, I'm pretty sure. Any system/architecture/etc can have improvements in software as the gen goes on - it's always just a matter of time, cleverness, familiarity, and money. Hell the PC for all of its generic ability and 'known quantity' factor would suddenly turn into quite the long-lived platform itself if it were frozen in time within a single configuration.
Put in a simpler way, I don't think Sony's gaming business would really have minded if it went without the 'graphically lesser' label it endured during the first year and a half of launch. Which is to say selling more consoles and more games is *hopefully* more important to Sony than showing improved graphics as years go by. And of course, I know it to be - which is why Kaz's comments were needlessly PR in my book.
The hard drive can and will be replaced with flash in some entry unit some time in the future, that is my bet, how much flash that is, we leave to another discussion. Of course merging Cell and RSX would require a redesign, but if they both are moved to a compatible process replacing the FlexIO bus lines should be quite easy. Such a move would of course be compared to the cost of keeping them separate, if Toshiba keeps using Cell, economics of scale may help keep the cost of the Cell cpu in the peanut range, at 28 nm the power draw should not be much of deal any more. Also remember that the merged EE+GS could never be moved to a really cheap bulk CMOS-process due to the EDRAM.
But a flash HDD is still more expensive than no HDD from a BOM standpoint, and whatever the relative expense of the OTSS 90nm CMOS process vs some others, it was certainly cheap enough, eDRAM or no. For RSX and Cell to share a die it would require more than the reworking of FlexIO, it would require also a unification of memory controller... unless they were to keep separate buses to still separate memory pools.. in which case I wonder, what is even the point? To top it all off of course there then comes the issue of NVidia and STI playing nice when it comes to the cross-company technology/licensing effort that would be required in order to create a hybrid Cell/RSX. For me... I'm never expecting it to happen.
As for Toshiba and Cell volume production, the only thing that's peanuts in my book is the number of SPE-derived chips in their product line right now. As far as TVs go, a 2-years late TV set at the stratospheric top of the range is a non-factor. If they migrate the technology down and throughout, then we can see. And SpursEngine, well... who knows. But unless there is process consolidation at 32nm between Spurs and Cell 'standard,' I don't think that any CE-derived economies of scale would factor in anyway.
Bottom line for me is PS2 will always be cheaper (relatively speaking; on an absolute basis obviously it would always be). There are simply fewer parts, and those parts share greater commonalities in their origins.