In this specific case, I think what needs to be realized is that while NV could justify lagging behind if they hit all their milestones, if they get delayed then by the time their part comes out it would have been more attractive not to be so conservative on process technology out of fear for wafer cost/yields.
I completely agree -- and that's almost exactly what happened to GT200 which probably is the only real example of NV choosing the wrong process since the NV30/130nm fiasco.
Another problem lies in the low transistor density of 65/55 NV GPUs -- G92b is bigger than RV770 on the same 55nm process while having 160M less transistors. I think that's the real problem for NV in 65/55nm generation -- simply put NVs 65/55 process usage sucks and they need to improve it considerably on 40nm node.
TSMC is not a "dumb" entity that just creates naive roadmaps pricing schemes not based on customer relationships. Both capacity and the different pricing models for different customers is dependent on complex feedback loops, and anything that doesn't take that into account is unlikely to be a very useful theory IMO.
Exactly. And that's why it's pretty pointless to try and 'guess' die production cost from it's size alone. And that's why being "slow" to smaller TSMC nodes doesn't mean paying more for the GPUs. Especially when we're talking about node -> half-node transitions.
My guess, FWIW, is that it is a G98 replacement that got canned. The fact there was a 'i' (i.e. integrated) version of the same is a strong hint in that direction; given the debacle that is NVIDIA's chipset division, it probably got killed in favour of focusing on future 40nm products.
That's a valid theory =)
GT206 MCP77 iGT206 MCP79 iGT209
So iGT209 is killed too? 8)
I was thinking of RV670 and RV770. And I should have said process/die-size advantage. They went up against considerably larger 80/90nm and 65nm parts from Nvidia.
55nm RV670 went against 65nm G92 (although it's worth to mention that NV's tactical mistake here made them do it -- they should've put G94 ahead of G92 and against RV670 instead).
As for RV770 -- NVs roadmap was in such a mess at the point of RV770 launch that it doesn't really matter wether they used 65 or 55nm for GT200 -- it would look worse than RV770 anyway. For NV it would be wise to use 55nm/256-bit GDDR5 of course but they've originally planned to launch GT200 when there were neither (well, 55nm was available since autumn'07 but migrating to 55nm with such a complex chip as GT200 probably wasn't an option).
I don't think Nvidia's conservative stance on process adoption is debatable. They've openly been willing to take their time moving to new nodes.
I don't think it's 'conservative', i think it's 'strategical'. They first 'try' the process with a simple chip and then transit a more complex ones. This 'simple chip' from NV for the most part was available as soon as the process allowed it to be. So it's not like they're waiting for half a year before switching to a new process, they simply beginning the switch in the low end segment (for which nobody cares here anyway). And this strategy mostly paid off.
If you think about it, NV was never that late with process transitions compared to ATI/AMD:
Code:
130 - NV31/1Q03 - RV360/4Q03
110 - RV370/2Q04 - NV43/3Q04
90 - R520/4Q05 - G7(1/2/3)/1Q06
80 - RV535/3Q06 - G86/2Q07
65 - RV630/2Q07 - G92/4Q07
55 - RV670/4Q07 - G92b/2Q08
So it's a 1-2 quarters difference mostly with the exception of 80nm (probably for the same reasons why they were slow with 55nm transition).
Plus you have to consider that RV670 turned out to be good in it's first revision -- and that's a rare thing. If they would need another spin then RV670 would show up at retail at the end of 1Q08 with G92b launching at the end of 2Q08.
Perhaps, but remember G92 and G94 hit around the same time with the 8800GT actually making it to market months before the 9600GT so there's still a possibility.
Yeah, exactly -- and we all see how that turned out.
G94 would've been a much better competitor to RV670 and -- who knows? -- maybe they would have had a better luck with 65nm transition with a simplier and smaller G94? I hope they learn on their mistakes from the previous generation.
Wasn`t G92 (the fastest G9x chip) first GPU in 65nm process from NVIDIA? So IMO GT212 (the fastest GT2xx chip) could be first GPU from NVIDIA made in 40nm as well.
If it's a straight GT200 shrink, yes.
But it's most likely quite a bit more than GT200 (12 or 15 32/8 TPCs, 256-bit GDDR5 bus, DX10.1 support maybe?). Plus it looks like G92 role in this cycle will be performed by 55nm GT200b.