Dilemmas for Environmentalists...

http://www.nytimes.com/2003/06/05/national/05WIND.html

(I think you need to register free for that one, but here's the first page of two...I'll add some emphasis)

Windmills Sow Dissent for Environmentalists
By KATHARINE Q. SEELYE


HOMAS, W.Va. — Vincent Collins, a lawyer from nearby Morgantown, has been vacationing in this scenic area for 35 years. A few years ago, he bought a 1.2-acre lot near here and planned to build a house on it. But once he saw the windmills, and learned of plans for more, he scrapped that dream.

Soaring above the treetops are 44 sleek white steel cylinders, 228 feet high. Churning on each tower are three glinting fiberglass blades, 115 feet long. Like quills on a porcupine, they spike the emerald spine of Backbone Mountain for six miles along the Allegheny Front.

They have also generated huge turbulence within the environmental movement. Proponents of wind farms view those who oppose them as heretics, obstructing the promise of clean renewable energy, while opponents decry them as producing insufficient power to warrant their blight on the landscape.

For now, the wind farm here is the largest east of the Mississippi, but the wind-energy industry, long a staple of the California landscape, is blowing eastward. Unobstructed winds, favorable economics and the absence of local zoning laws are attracting developers, and soon more than 400 turbines could be sprouting across 40 square miles of West Virginia's most scenic mountaintops.

"I can't believe how large and hideous they are," Mr. Collins said. "When you hear the word `windmill,' you think Holland and Don Quixote. That's wrong. They look like alien monsters coming out of the ground."

The growing industry has caused a kind of identity crisis among people who think of themselves as pro-environment, forcing them to choose between the promise of clean, endlessly renewable energy and the perils of imposing giant man-made structures on nature.

To some environmentalists, the opposition to wind power from within their ranks not only stifles the growth of a new source of energy but also calls into question the integrity of the environmental movement itself.

Charles Komanoff, a longtime economic consultant to environmental groups, said the opposition by "well-heeled environmentalists," stoked the preconception that they were more concerned about their own backyards than about the common good.

"They want to have it all and they won't brook any trade-off, especially a trade-off that sacrifices their own comfort," said Mr. Komanoff, who is based in New York.

At the same time, the wind farm developers appear to have the environmental high ground.

"We believe in clean energy," said Steve Stingel, a spokesman for Florida Power and Light, which bought the rights to the wind farm here and then built it. The company is the largest generator of wind power in the United States, with 30 wind farms in 10 states.

Wind now accounts for less than 1 percent of all electricity produced in the United States. But the American Wind Energy Association, the industry's trade group, predicts it will grow to 6 percent by 2020.

The case for wind has been fortified in recent years by advances in technology that make it more efficient and a federal tax credit that makes its financing more feasible.

But the reality for people like Mr. Collins is something else. Windmill farms must be large to be financially viable. Critics worry that beyond the blemish on the natural landscape, these industrial-sized towers can chop up migratory birds. One farm in California was dubbed the "condor Cuisinart," and the ornithologist monitoring the wind farm here just reported that at least two dozen song birds winging their way north had been killed.

Another complaint is that wind farms can do little to reduce overall dependence on fossil fuels, because of the unreliability of constant wind and the inability to store its power.

"They put out such a minuscule amount of electricity," Mr. Collins said. "It's nuts."

Similar complaints, coming from prominent environmentalists like Robert F. Kennedy Jr., have stalled installation of the nation's first off-shore wind farm, proposed for the waters of Nantucket Sound off Cape Cod. And they have forced the Long Island Power Authority to scrap its plan for wind turbines off the eastern tip of Long Island. But the utility has now proposed putting up to 50 turbines, each 488 feet high, off Long Island's south shore between Fire Island and Jones Beach, two immensely popular summer resort areas.

Mr. Kennedy, for one, said he found "zero" irony in the fact that he had devoted himself to environmental advocacy and yet opposed the wind project on Cape Cod, his Kennedy grandparents' summer home.

"There are appropriate places for everything," he said in a telephone interview. "You would not want a wind farm in Yosemite, and you wouldn't want one in Central Park."

Mr. Kennedy added: "I love wind energy, but let's develop some rules about how you divide up the commons. You're essentially giving the commons over to a profit-making enterprise."

Yes, LOL Mr. Kennedy, let me guess: Rule #1: "Not in my backyard."


Here's another:
"Climate changes making planet greener"
http://www.cnn.com/2003/TECH/science/06/05/earth.green/index.html

Just more evidence of what I've been saying all along: "scientists" have no clue at this stage as to what, if any, detriments / benefits there are to global warming....
 
Joe, people are short sighted. We can't know what will happen in 100M/[insert large number] years time or so.
 
K.I.L.E.R said:
Joe, people are short sighted. We can't know what will happen in 100M/[insert large number] years time or so.

No, poeple like to make knee-jerk reactions and support policies because it "feels good", despite lack of any evidence that it might have any effect whatsoever.

This goes for man-made greenhouse gasses, as well as federalizing airport security personnel.
 
Joe DeFuria said:
K.I.L.E.R said:
Joe, people are short sighted. We can't know what will happen in 100M/[insert large number] years time or so.

No, poeple like to make knee-jerk reactions and support policies because it "feels good", despite lack of any evidence that it might have any effect whatsoever.

This goes for man-made greenhouse gasses, as well as federalizing airport security personnel.

I think it would be next to impossible to get hardcore evidence that supports either side without doubt full stop.
 
K.I.L.E.R said:
I think it would be next to impossible to get hardcore evidence that supports either side without doubt full stop.

Not sure what you mean "either side." Impossible to say if Greenhouse gasses are either a benefit or a detriment to "the environment?"

You are probably right...at least no remotely definitive conclusion can be drawn without hundreds of years of observation, and data collection on an almost infinite variety of variables.

That's pretty much my point. ;)
 
Joe DeFuria said:
K.I.L.E.R said:
I think it would be next to impossible to get hardcore evidence that supports either side without doubt full stop.

Not sure what you mean "either side." Impossible to say if Greenhouse gasses are either a benefit or a detriment to "the environment?"

You are probably right...at least no remotely definitive conclusion can be drawn without hundreds of years of observation, and data collection on an almost infinite variety of variables.

That's pretty much my point. ;)

Why didn't you say that outright in the first place? It would have been a bit less for me to read. :LOL:
 
K.I.L.E.R said:
Joe DeFuria said:
K.I.L.E.R said:
I think it would be next to impossible to get hardcore evidence that supports either side without doubt full stop.

Not sure what you mean "either side." Impossible to say if Greenhouse gasses are either a benefit or a detriment to "the environment?"

You are probably right...at least no remotely definitive conclusion can be drawn without hundreds of years of observation, and data collection on an almost infinite variety of variables.

That's pretty much my point. ;)

Why didn't you say that outright in the first place? It would have been a bit less for me to read. :LOL:

Yes, I pretty much agree the science behind much of the environmentalist movement is garbage. The problem is that they are using this bad science to make claims against a free market and that government control over the market must be implemented. That is why if you are an environmentalist it puts you squarely on the left if you know it or not. Most don't realize it.
 
Joe DeFuria said:
Yes, LOL Mr. Kennedy, let me guess: Rule #1: "Not in my backyard."

I see nothing wrong with that. I fully support the use of for instance nuclear power, but I wouldn't want a nuclear power plant in my backyard. Both because of the psycological effect of the things like the Tchernobyl tragedy and because they tend not to be very beautiful. It's better to place it quite a bit away from where people live. Heck, the Danish people constantly complains about a Swedish nuclear power plant that's too close to Copenhagen, the Danish capital. The power plant is located in Sweden, but it's not that far over the sea to Denmark. I see such complaints as valid and think we should do whatever we can about it, within reason of course.

As for wind power. I'm no big fan of it, it's too inefficient for it's physical size and is not really a environment friendly alternative because of the sheer amount of space it requires.
 
Humus said:
I see such complaints as valid and think we should do whatever we can about it, within reason of course.

That's the kicker, ain't it? Define "within reason". Nobody "wants" a nuclear power plant in their back yard, but nobody "wants" expensive (or worse, rationed) power either.

Does it make more sense to not obstruct someones "vacation view", and as a consequence fail to supply cheaper power to masses of people going about their day to day life?
 
'That is why if you are an environmentalist it puts you squarely on the left if you know it or not. Most don't realize it.'

Thats a ridiculous claim. Moreover, the notion that the science behind environmental legislation is hoaky, is a US right wing myth. Walk into any serious University and say that in the physics and geologist conference room, you'll be dismissed as a simpleton.

Now, while there are *reservations* about certain 'broad, highly general' claims of environmental science, for the most part a lot of specific claims has been firmly established and a broad consensus reached.

There's something that irks me a little about civilians understanding of the sciences that involve complexity:

Right now, its 78 degrees outside, a perfectly sunny day. I know with 99.999999% mathematical, and physical certainty that it will still be 78 degrees and perfectly sunny one second from now. Complexity is the science behind predicting how long it takes before my measurement goes fubar. In this case, one second is a very short time. But why? Why couldn't it be 100 days? Answer, b/c the info I gave was very precise, and the equations governing the dynamics highly particular. If I had made it broader, and less specific I could get a much longer time frame. Eg 78 +/-40 degrees.

Now, if we include broad timespans, and very general global variables I can equally well make the same sort of 100% certain claims about bracketed information. Indeed, if I have a collection of say pressure/humidity/X readings from say the last millena, and a set of equations that have a very short timestep (compared to the data), then its very possible that I can give with 99.99 percent certainty both precise AND accurate data for say the next 50 years.

Its the specific case of local weather fluctuations, that makes people think we can only predict about a few hours worth. Its not true in general.
 
Now, if we include broad timespans, and very general global variables I can equally well make the same sort of 100% certain claims about bracketed information.

Only provided those global variables are actually relevant, and all inclusive, of those variables that impact the claim you are measuring.

Indeed, if I have a collection of say pressure/humidity/X readings from say the last millena, and a set of equations that have a very short timestep (compared to the data), then its very possible that I can give with 99.99 percent certainty both precise AND accurate data for say the next 50 years.

The key there is you said "X" readings, and predict "data."

Replace predict "data" with something like "surface temperatures" and "X" with all inclusive things that significantly impact surface tempartures.

Its the specific case of local weather fluctuations, that makes people think we can only predict about a few hours worth. Its not true in general.

Then what are you saying we can prodict?
 
The notion of scale is still very confusing to people IMO. For instance, I know with a great deal of accuracy how 2 particles interact. With a small assumption, I know with a good deal of accuracy how 3 interact.

But oof, 10 particles is already nearly impossible to do accurately with what I know. Indeed, any analytic solution based on say phase space probability hits *ding* complexity issues, my predictions quickly deteriorate at exponential rates. But wait, its not over yet. B/c theres a wonderful thing called statistical mechanics. With a redefinition of variables (from local to global) (single particle momentum to general notions of say pressure and entropy), I am now able to predict things very nicely again. Its a wonderful thing that I can know with a great deal of accuracy how say an electron gas behaves, even though there are 10's of millions of the little buggers all acting completely randomly for all intents and purposes. Even more mysterious: Local concepts (like say an electron can only have spin up or spin down) actually effect global outcomes in statistical mechanics.

So it seems that its the right mix of local and global variables at any given scale, can give me a solution to what I'm looking for. Such is the case for Greenhouse emmissions. Toy models, (at this time incomplete, but still improvable) can possibly in fact give me a very detailed explanation. One day, I suspect we might even be able to know things with great scientific accuracy. So the story isn't over yet, and its foolish to dismiss current efforts as hoaky science b/c some of the specific interactions are not known (much like we have no idea what individual particles are actually doing in the electron gas).
 
Fred said:
Toy models, (at this time incomplete, but still improvable) can possibly in fact give me a very detailed explanation. One day, I suspect we might even be able to know things with great scientific accuracy. So the story isn't over yet, and its foolish to dismiss current efforts as hoaky...

Whoa....

No one is dismissing the "efforts" of scientists. I have no problems with the funding for further research on environmental / climactic interaction.

(Edit: whoops....make that "climatic", not "climactic." :oops: )

The issue is one of accepting that we ARE at the point where current models DO give an accurate representation, or whether we aren't. The fact that every month there seems to be another "conflicting report" about the impact of greenhouse gasses and/or climate, suggests to me and I would think to anyone with common sense...that we are not yet at that point.
 
Joe, I know you know that =)

But there is a sentiment out there that seems to think that b/c things are chaotic, and so awfully complicated, that we are doomed to ignorance forever so to speak.

Some people then either adopt the precautionary principle, or dismiss everything that comes out of the field as bunk.

Both are wrong.

Any toy model, must first reproduce past events consistently. That hasn't happened satisfactorily yet, at least to a suitable degree of acceptable realism. It doesn't mean that it won't tho.

There is also a sort of quasi philosophical argument. That is, many of the 'incomplete' toy models made so far tend to back up the environmentalists claim. I think of 113 models made, 90+ showed a rather bleak picture. You can take that as you will, its not science really b/c none of them were complete, but it does make you pause for a second.
 
Joe DeFuria said:
Humus said:
I see such complaints as valid and think we should do whatever we can about it, within reason of course.

That's the kicker, ain't it? Define "within reason". Nobody "wants" a nuclear power plant in their back yard, but nobody "wants" expensive (or worse, rationed) power either.

Does it make more sense to not obstruct someones "vacation view", and as a consequence fail to supply cheaper power to masses of people going about their day to day life?

I'm not the one deciding what's reasonable, and it's quite a hard problem, especially since on a normal year we can only produce 98% of the power we need. On cold years we have a significant underproduction. In a referendum in 1980 I think it was it was voted that the nuclear power should be completely replaced over time with alternative energy. This hasn't happened though, due to few real alternatives have been presented. Recent polls also show that the majority today instead wants the nuclear power to be expanded to make us self-sufficient on electricity. Denmark on the other hand has already gotten rid of all their nuclear power plants and even have an average of 50% overproduction. So naturally Sweden imports a lot from Denmark on cold years. So it can be argued that there may be other motives from the Danish to complain about that power plant.
IMO though, complains from the Danes shouldn't be ignored at least. Though as long as we need the power we can't really close it down. If there's a point in time where we can close a nuclear power plant or we can can put it on half-speed, that one should be the first one. Personally I'm more happy with a nuclear power plant running than the alternative: buying electricity made in power plants burning coal (hardly environment friendly) from Denmark.
 
Hang on here.

I would want a nuclear powerplant in my backyard. Why?
I want to see if I can cause a meltdown and scare the living crap out of people. :LOL: ;)
 
Precautionary principle is a case by case basis... For global warming which has models showsing how it'll lead to either serious warming or a new ice age or neither its hard indeed to debate as to whether something should be done.

The science behind it it is firming up quickly tho. We're not decades away from valid answers not to mention what solid support the observation over the next few years will garner like it has in the 90's. I say we can start taking scenarios seriously in 5-10 tops. If the climate is mild or cyclical and not follwing anymore warming trends then we probly can relax.

I expect corporations to debate the issues amongst themselves as much as scientists and ideologues pretty soon. Global warming is simply very bad for business if it happens in the way environmentalists figure it will.
 
Umm, Nuclear power plants aren't all that bigger than coal or say hydro electrical plants. Not to mention they generate considerably more power and are vastly cleaner.

Nuclear power is the most obvious nobrainer solution to the environmental/power problems facing the world. The main drawback is the fact that it requires a large initial monetary deposit, often beyond the means of many third world countries.
 
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