Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19) (SARS-CoV-2) [2020]

Yes. I get that, that's why I said you need to use RNA tests for virus presence to enable containment, which is why I don't get MfA's concerns about antibodies confusing containment.

But additional to that, no test method is proving to be that accurate yet, so no matter how you test, you can't completely rule out someone being or having been infected.

 

Good news :
Using his years of medical training Dr D. Trump has invented a cure.

 

It's probably best not to talk about his latest suggestion in this thread. It'll inevitably lead to a discussion about what kind of person and president he is, which is off topic for here. I know I need to bite my tongue! Suffice to say, it's best if his medical suggestions are never contemplated, and one really shouldn't look to the untrained for complex medical advice, even if that person thinks they are a person that has a good you-know-what.

 

That wouldn't have been a problem for the field hospitals, though they are already being taking down again I see.

I guess I was a little pessimistic about testing and containment.

 

It's somewhat disconcerting to see most nations daily infections is decreasing but the UK's is still staying level at about 4000 new cases a day. Is our lockdown just not locky enough? Are people being too blasé and mingling enough to keep the virus going?

 

Well, we are supposedly extending testing out into the community and for key workers now. Previously, the figures were mostly just for hospital admissions so that would explain to some degree why it wasn't levelling off.

You'd certainly hope that new infections would be falling after a month in lockdown.

 

State of Texas complete COVID-19 data breakdown



https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83

Data as of 4/24/2020 @ 11:30 AM:

Total Tests: 242,547 (Up +17,469)
Cases Reported: 22,806 (Up +862)
In Hospitals: 1,674 (Up +25)
Patients Recovered (Estimated*) : 9,156 (Up +1,131)
Fatalities: 593 (Up +32)

Texas tests per 1M population are 8,698 (Up +626) which places Texas as the 3rd worst State. Texas dropped one place from yesterday. Ohio is three places better at 9,200 (Up +411) per 1M population.

Click this link: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us
and on the page click the Tests / 1M pop column to sort from worst to first

They're using roughly 27.885 million as the population of Texas.

 

Ohio's numbers today, Confirmed: 15169 (up from 14694 ), Hospitalized: 3053 (up from 2960 ), and Deaths: 690 (up from 656 ).
CDC Expanded Cases and Deaths: 588 (up from 552 ), 41 (up from 38)
Confirmed Cuyahoga County: 1817 (up from 1768).

Percentage increase: 3.23%, 3.14%, 5.18%
Raw increase: 475, 93, 34

Ohio has total tests of 107,109 (up from 102,325) and tests per 1M population of 9200 (up from 8789) taken from https://coronavirus.ohio.gov/wps/portal/gov/covid-19/dashboards/key-metrics/cases and https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ [case numbers updated later]

They're using roughly 11.641482 million as the population of Ohio.

 

Italy locked down around the 3rd of march, infections peaked (broadly) three weeks after that, and are still at half the peak level a month over that, and still way, way higher than when they locked down.
Changes in testing procedures can make all such observations misleading though. But it seems much too early to call Britain an outlier.

 

Italy is also an outlier. Many (most) countries have a much more pronounced spike at the same point in their normalised timeline.

 

I remember hearing a report from Italy during the early weeks of the lockdown where a journalist was quite cheerfully telling how his elderly mother (well into her 80s, I seem to think) was continuing to go out and see her friends. She simply refused to stay indoors. Perhaps something to do with that? Or have they let it run amok in the care homes more than most?

 

Longer version. His narrative is completely different from what we get from the common media and numbers

 

It could be less commitment to the lockdown. We had all that trouble with people at the city parks for example. My neighbours will meet up outside someone's house at distance, and apparently sometimes kids congregate at the end of the road. Other nations have introduced serious consequences and more rigid laws; maybe that has something to do with it? Or maybe it's a different strain? There are a few to deal with now and we don't know the specifics of them. Or maybe it's just the data that's weird?

 

I'll watch it tomorrow, but the problem I see is every expert's opinion is based on floored data, so no-one actually knows what's going on to be able to work out what should be done. The theories are all based on speculating what's happening in light of lack of information. Some people fill in the blanks with worst case scenarios and others fill them in with best case scenarios. How can anyone really scenari-know?

 

I've mostly looked at US and Canada data and it seems in those places the data is very regional. Looking at the whole will give a very different impression.

Obviously most countries are much smaller in terms of area, but I still expect outbreaks to be regional in nature looking at the whole country could give a very different impression of what is happening. You could have one area building while others are under control with the overall picture looking flat.

 

@Nesh i hope youve posted those videos in a "look at this idiot" kind of way and not a "it's a conspiracy" way
seriously "fatality rate is the same as seasonal flu"

 

Well this guy is very known for being meticulous with statistics, real data and tests for bias. If there is someone I would trust is someone with expertise in statistics who does not conclude until he collects enough information and gradually shapes his perspective as data are coming in.

 

I posted it as "someone known for data driven science" and who might possibly show that hysteria, bias media, wrong observations and fear for political costs are more likely to shape policies and cause crisis than real science.
Nothing to do with conspiracy.

 

Is the fatality rate is the same as seasonal flu ?

 

https://arstechnica.com/science/202...ies-suggesting-covid-19-is-no-worse-than-flu/

Other experts suggest his use of statistics is "questionable".