Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19) (SARS-CoV-2) [2020]

Early antibody tests show a minimum of 11% of the population in Stockholm had already been infected:

https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/11-procent-av-stockholmarna-har-antikroppar-mot-covid-19

- Actual figure is believed to be higher.
- Test provides no false positives, but has a "70-80% sensibility" (I'd guess 20-30% may be false negatives).

Stockholm population: 974,073
Confirmed Covid-19 cases in Stockholm so far (through virological tests): 6,189
Actual number of people who got infected with Covid-19, according to the antibody tests: minimum 107,150.

The Swedish government didn't implement any measure of restriction in the country. Life goes on as usual, and there are 1,765 deaths related to Covid-19 out of a population of 10 million.
I don't know how the flu usually hits Sweden, but Portugal with a similar population usually gets 2000-3000 deaths per year related to the flu.


Kaotik said:
According to a chinese study (waiting for peer review):
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Wait for peer review, then.
I could propose a model suggesting the coronavirus has a 80% chance of mutating into a virus that creates a zombie outbreak.

10 years ago some epidemic progression models for the swine flu based on early data suggested a 30% kill rate to all infected (which would pretty much wipe out the human race as we know it).
 
Shifty Geezer said:
They've been working on MERS/SARS vaccines for years and getting close. They've repurposed that research for a cousin of those viruses. Also, investmen tin those vaccines wasn't that plentiful as they weren't going concerns. Now people are throwing money at solutions for Covid19. Necessity is the mother of invention...
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But wasnt the lab in Wuhan focusing a lot on coronaviruses to create treatments?
It doesn't sound convincing that the resources or efforts were so scarce that this was the primary reason we didnt get proven treatments out.
 
Shifty Geezer said:
They've been working on MERS/SARS vaccines for years and getting close. They've repurposed that research for a cousin of those viruses. Also, investmen tin those vaccines wasn't that plentiful as they weren't going concerns. Now people are throwing money at solutions for Covid19. Necessity is the mother of invention...
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To be clear, what I found strange is that they only published animal testing for the MERS one ... yet they seem to jumping straight to human testing for covid19.

I hope at least the authorities have a couple of weeks worth of animal efficiency/side-effect/safety data to look at before they gave the okay to put it in humans. I know they're in a hurry but having a big vaccine fuckup at the moment would have far reaching consequences beyond just the test subjects involved.
 
Nesh said:
But wasnt the lab in Wuhan focusing a lot on coronaviruses to create treatments?
Click to expand...

Biolabs also often try to intentionally create more virulent or human transmitted forms of existing virus's ... it strikes me as bioweapon research with plausible deniability, but that's just me.
 
Nesh said:
But wasnt the lab in Wuhan focusing a lot on coronaviruses to create treatments?
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It was a virology research centre. I don't know that it was researching cures at all.

It doesn't sound convincing that the resources or efforts were so scarce that this was the primary reason we didnt get proven treatments out.
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It's not that they were scarce. It's that over the past decade, they've been working on vaccines for SARS. eg.

https://www.sciencealert.com/austra...ke-coronavirus-vaccine-at-unprecedented-speed
"Our intention with this work is to leverage our work on the MERS coronavirus and rapid response platforms to speed up vaccine development. There are no guarantees of success, but we hope this work could provide a significant and important step forward in developing a vaccine for this disease."​

CEPI was founded in December 2017. Coronavirus vaccine research has been going on since SARS in 2002. And SARS-Cov2 vaccine isn't starting from scratch, but from a decade of research into SARS-Cov1. There's nothing suspicious about it at all.
 
Nesh said:
It is certainly odd. For years no vaccine or treatment has ever been found for MERS or SARS. These have significantly higher death rates. Suddenly there is one?
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Nope Nesh, they stopped trials on those coronavirus relatives of SARS-Cov2 because those virus burned out, there weren´t any people left to try vaccines on.

Not to say that many of the work that was made at that time, it´s really useful now and some vaccines candidates are repurposing old tech* for those virus.
 
So, currently the first known deaths in the US happened back in early Feb. according to a couple of autopsies performed. The two people who died had no recent travel history or contact with anyone with recent travel history.

So, the virus had been in the US for a while prior to the breakout in Seattle.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/a...reviously-thought/ar-BB131mhb?ocid=spartanntp

This makes me think there may possibly be more asymptomatic carriers than we currently believe.

Regards,
SB
 
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Silent_Buddha said:
So, currently the first known deaths in the US happened back in early Feb. according to a couple of autopsies performed. The two people who died had no recent travel history or contact with anyone with recent travel history.

So, the virus had been in the US for a while prior to the breakout in Seattle.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/a...reviously-thought/ar-BB131mhb?ocid=spartanntp

This makes me think there may possibly be more asymptomatic carriers than we currently believe.

Regards,
SB
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There only needed to be one.

It is fairly certain the virus was in the US in early January from Steve Wozniak's account.
 
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Ohio's numbers today, Confirmed: 14117 (up from 13725 ), Hospitalized: 2882 (up from 2779 ), and Deaths: 610 (up from 557 ).
CDC Expanded Cases and Deaths: 508 (up from 475 ), 26 (up from 19)
Confirmed Cuyahoga County: 1548 (previous days numbers messed up by me maybe had Pickway county #).

Percentage increase: 2.86%, 3.71%, 9.52%
Raw increase: 392, 103, 53

Ohio has total tests of 97,998 (up from 94,239) and tests per 1M population of 8418 (up from 8,095) taken from https://coronavirus.ohio.gov/wps/portal/gov/covid-19/dashboards/key-metrics/cases and https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ [case numbers updated later]
 
Meanwhile in scandinavia. Sweden still is living free and close to hitting 200 dead a day. I might be wrong but I believe around 1000 swedes die to flu every year. covid19 is reaping same result in about a week. I guess this is one way to fix the age structure of society and the health/retirement issues become less also. Pretty hard values if you ask me, but naturally nobody asked so it is what it is.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-deaths-covid-19?time=2020-03-16..&country=FIN+SWE

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manux said:
Meanwhile in scandinavia. Sweden still is living free and close to hitting 200 dead a day. I might be wrong but I believe around 1000 swedes die to flu every year. covid19 is reaping same result in about a week. I guess this is one way to fix the age structure of society and the health/retirement issues become less also. Pretty hard values if you ask me, but naturally nobody asked so it is what it is.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-deaths-covid-19?time=2020-03-16..&country=FIN+SWE

View attachment 3807
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Finland isn't part of scandinavia :devilish::devilish::devilish::devilish::devilish::devilish:
Also number for us in that is wrong, that number is from April 20th, current number is 149 (guess they finally added the nursing/retirement home deaths in there yesterday when it jumped from 98 to 141)
 
Kaotik said:
Finland isn't part of scandinavia :devilish::devilish::devilish::devilish::devilish::devilish:
Also number for us in that is wrong, that number is from April 20th, current number is 149 (guess they finally added the nursing/retirement home deaths in there yesterday when it jumped from 98 to 141)
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Ok. So eastern block versus scandinavia looks interesting. The scale doesn't change much if you add hundred here or there. There was an almost hidden tree in the forest.
 
I am reading about Finland's measures in Wikipedia and they dont seem as extreme as in some other countries unless I didnt get it right.
Moving around is not prohibited and working from home is not forced. Some government run public facilities have closed. People are allowed to gather but no more than 10 people.
Schools closed but not early education.
In some countries everything is totally locked down and people are allowed to get out once for a limited time for a specified reason. Everyone is working from home unless the job description requires it.
 
Is it because society in Finland is naturally distant or isolated? Or because they're sensible so when they're sick they don't continue to work or go out?
 
BRiT said:
Is it because society in Finland is naturally distant or isolated? Or because they're sensible so when they're sick they don't continue to work or go out?
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Well thats also part of it. Who ever had mild symptoms or worse were advised by the government to stay home.
 
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