Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19) (SARS-CoV-2) [2020]

I think Nesh was saying in those hospitalised; that's what we're presently discussing, where obesity has been shown to be more common among those hospitalised than the general population. There must be numerous factors that play into having a bad reaction (not just severe lung infection, but development of serious instead of mild symptoms too), some of which are possibly untraceable like exposure to other coronaviruses, but others which can identified by good data tracking. Thouggh with so many data points, we can't compare everything about everyone. Does eating peanut butter every day make you more resilient, or less resilient? What about if you wake up before 6am versus after? Sleep on a synthetic pillow versus natural feather? Use an alcohol mouthwash or a non-alcoholic mouthwash? Drink less than two units of alcohol a day, or tea total, or a boozer? So many variables!

 

Infection and severe illness/death are different things. Not everyone who gets infected gets seriously ill. Anyone can get infected, out if which a small percentage might die depending on their health condition or other circumstances

 

My mother just got out of the hostpital with that they kept her in for 2 months because they found another issue and they were waiting to get a care package together
that cost us the grand sum of "not a sausage"
The care package consists of a hospital bed (a proper one with motors and an air mattress) and 2 carers who come out twice a day every day this however is not free I have to pay the extortionate amount of £11.40 a week

 

ps: The bbc did a report about russia they are not closing churches one person interviewed said "it's impossible to get infected in a church as it's a holy place" - and she's a doctor

 

As a reminder; correlation isn’t causation.
Statistics aren’t probabilities.

Statistics showcase the numbers. But the numbers aren’t your probability for fatality. It’s really hard to know if you are going to ha doe COVID well

 

wow, the US jumped up 20,000 cases overnight.

 

This can’t be emphasized enough.
It’s very easy today to search databases for correlations, and in a situation like this not only does every country have people doing this, but every bored data analyst working from home will trawl through whatever data they get their hands on.
And "he that seeks shall find”.
Any correlation with any other data, even if spurious, will drag along with it its covariant neighbours. Diabetes correlates with obesity correlates with eating pizza => Eating pizza will make you die from CoVid!! Look at Italy for proof!!!
We will see a TON of these
It would be nice if we could keep them out of the thread.

We have already seen a lot of confusion in this thread that is most probably caused by artefacts from different testing strategies. Some countries tried/tries to trace the sickness, some countries only test those that show symptoms or have been close to known Corona infected, some countries only test you if you’re in bad enough shape to need hospital treatment, and Iran always reports the same numbers no matter what. (Which doesn’t have to be because they are downplaying their numbers it could simply be due to test processing limitations.)
Not to mention that different countries see different rates of spread from their respective hot spots, there are local variations in living conditions, ICU availability, climate.....

People who are good with numbers pretty much can’t help themselves, when they see numbers they try to understand them. But when we do that and think we have some kind of grip on them, we need to step back and see that the numbers we used to build our understanding is incredibly noisy, and that our understanding can be very flawed.

 

Wonder no more, they do do it.
Here’s recent Spain numbers

Code:

       Cases   Hospit.  ICU   Deaths
60-69  5,633   2,784    360    119
70-79  5,620   3,575    454    319
80-89  4,267   2,654     55    608
> 90   1,378     735      5    255

From 80+ you can see the number of ppl in the ICU is way lower than those in their 70s or younger

edit" thanks for formatting that (Shifty I assume) I was on ipad when is a PITA to do any formatting with

 

I think they are part of the discussion, as long as everyone appreciates that every snippet now means nothing until properly proven. Just because a study finds left handed people are more like to get serious symptoms is linked, doesn't mean lefties should fear for their lives. This is no different to how we have to deal with daily barrages of 'scientific reports' on foods that help and harm and everything else.

There's nothing really wrong with confusion as long as people are trying to understand. It's only a problem when confusion affects action and choices, jumping to conclusions. But we're all faced with choices, so we all need to be informed, which means not being able to rely on one source of truth and so having to trawl through the data the same as everyone else. The most important thing is an open mind. Don't believe you know anything.

 

Infected, not dead.

 

Latest data looks like his theories are a bust. Growth rate didn't level out.


Edit: His response is they've increased testing. This whole variable testing thing just makes data a mess.

 

Russia has to change their retirement age recently remember. I think Putin just doesn't care because of demographics.

 

I agree in principle. However this is an issue where people are quite justifiably more afraid and impressionable than if we’re discussing PS5 boost clocks. Trying to keep level headed and improving signal to noise ratios can actually make a unique difference in this particular thread.

 

Whats the state of the virus in Russia? I barely heard anything from news outkets and it is a vast population

 

I'm not seeing much overreaction here though. Take for example the chloroquine talk. I don't think anyone in this thread is rushing out to buy boxes of the stuff, or to eat aquarium cleaner. Zed talks his experiences. There's some links here and there. I think the people engaged in this thread aren't the sort to panic over the latest round of numbers, and are reasonably positioned to look at the bigger picture.

 

Just saw this on The Guardian:

Excuse me? Is that a joke?

 

2019 Novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19) for Dallas County Texas
https://www.dallascounty.org/departments/dchhs/2019-novel-coronavirus.php

March 28, 2020 - 439 confirmed cases - 9 deaths

439 confirmed cases up 72 over that last day and two new deaths
Those 72 cases represent a 19.6% increase over the last day

72 more COVID-19 cases for Dallas County, 8th and 9th death
https://starlocalmedia.com/carrollt...cle_858fb36a-7124-11ea-ac7b-7bb6c891d13d.html

Our Governor/Lt. Governor get a "F" grade for their responses so far
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/poli...ng-coronavirus-others-not-so-much/ar-BB11RxDA

Oh and now our AG is at it.

Texas AG says gun stores are essential, should remain open amid pandemic
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/t...-should-remain-open-amid-pandemic/ar-BB11QKX8

So Patrick first said old people should just die and now Paxton says all Texans should be able to buy their essential guns.

What a bunch of tools.

 

@Nesh about 1500 cases and 8 deaths if reports are accurate

ps: trump's decision not to lockdown new york good or bad ?

 

New York is already on isolation orders, no? Same with most of the states that surround it? The only thing Trumo was going to do was claim to prevent travel in and out of those states. The problem with that is how impossible it is to enforce.

As to the US numbers, now that it's at 100K, it looks like it jumped by 20K overnight, but it'll be worse, as it's within the range of what Ohio is seeing of 22% to 32% increase. That means US will probably hit 200K in the middle of the week, then 300K by Friday, then close to 600K on Sunday.

That's when most of the stay at home orders were set to expire. If those numbers hit, they will have to expand them by another 2 weeks.

 

How do you recall masks that have been already used?
Dutch recall 600,000 defective masks from China

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world...8082879103f706576cede8&pinned_post_type=share