Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19) (SARS-CoV-2) [2020]

Very encouraging information about ICU admissions (for the vaccinated and boosted:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1479528897259712513

With infections spreading up through the age groups, the numbers of admissions will go up, but hopefully not to too high a level. The question is whether or not non-critical admissions will become so high that the correct treatment isn't available and some patients deteriorate leading to increased ICU requirements from that angle.
 
Davros said:
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Hah, what took you so long. Seeing the words "we french laugh at everyone" immediately triggered this exact sentence in my (and everyone else's) mind.
 
if anyone planning to visit bali, things to consider
  • the quarantine procedure for tourists is not properly enforced. you can pay around 100 USD to get out of quarantine <-- not exclusive to bali
  • most didn't do proper social distancing and face mask-wearing (heck, many didn't even have face mask on their face)
  • covid tracing/tracking via home-grown app pedulilindungi is often buggy (stuck loading, crash, etc) and did not get enforced properly
  • Movie theaters have "ghost" seating that is haphazard. E.g. Row A column 1 2 3 are ghosted, column 4 5 6 are not. Instead of doing 50% capacity and having each seat spaced by 1 ghosted seat.
 
Good news is it looks like Omicron has peaked in the UK. Positive case rate was 16% on 29th December, but down to 12%, 10%, and 9% over 3rd Jan, 4th and 5th. distribution of these cases also aren't localised to an age group, but approximately 7% of each demographics population up to 50 year olds WE 31st December. So unlike a wave that starts with a peak in the young and propagates into their parents, this one should be up and down with nowhere to go save the older generations. Whether it's still going to spread through them more or not is yet to be seen, but given boosters and established herd immunity for everyone who's had the disease the past few weeks, that seems less than likely to me.

So hopefully the beginning of the end.
 
The problem here is that you're comparing all reported tests (PCR+LFT) with the cases reported on that date. Not that there is a choice! We don't have any separation between the PCR/LFT numbers reported and, of course, millions of LFTs go unreported. I have to admit, I'm guilty of this myself. I haven't reported a single LFT result - well, maybe my first. I've only used them once in a while, however, as I don't encounter a lot of people face to face and haven't been attending risky environments.

The 29th was the peak for the post-Christmas infections/testing, but cases by specimen date were as high on 4th January (numbers are back-filling as delayed results come in), which would match up with the New Year 'surge', and we also know there have been delays with PCR results. Understandable given how many people are infected at present as it will be disrupting the labs as well as the hospitals.

Given the messaging from the government and media recently, I suspect a lot of people infected who test positive on LFTs aren't bothering to report them and the recommendation is that nobody has a confirmatory PCR after a positive LFT. You'd expect that the return to offices/schools will lead to another increase in infection, though we'll have to see how much that spreads out through the age groups. I suspect that, given the prevalence and the frequent changes in recommendations about getting PCR tests, we'll be reliant on the ONS survey to see what is occurring out there. Also, let's not forget that the dashboard doesn't show any reinfections yet! As Omicron is so dominant, this will be skewing the positivity numbers to show a lower rate - the tests will be shown in the numbers, the reinfections won't. I think I read somewhere that 10-15% of cases are confirmed reinfections at present?

I'd expect hospitalisations to keep on going upwards for a while yet, though the rate of increase certainly seems to have declined and hospitalisations are possibly reducing in some areas of the country. The question still is just how much can London tell us about how cases in the rest of the country will go. Different demographics and resources may lead to differing admissions/death rates compared to London.

I personally think it's likely this Omicron wave will be impacting things until the end of February, though we'll have to see. Very lucky that the boosters seem to work well in older age groups and the inherent risk of serious outcomes amongst the unvaccinated (and vaccinated) is lower than with Alpha and Delta.
 
Mariner said:
Given the messaging from the government and media recently, I suspect a lot of people infected who test positive on LFTs aren't bothering to report them...
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Is there reason to think people with +ve tests are less likely to report them than people with -ve tests?

Also, let's not forget that the dashboard doesn't show any reinfections yet! As Omicron is so dominant, this will be skewing the positivity numbers to show a lower rate - the tests will be shown in the numbers, the reinfections won't. I think I read somewhere that 10-15% of cases are confirmed reinfections at present?
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Yes, it can't be a huge amount as it'll be cases that were pre-Omicron; we won't be getting omicron reinfections. As such, changes in numbers during this Omicron phase will be comparable. That is, if 15% were reinfections in December of people who had Delta, Beta, Alpha, Vanilla, or chocolate-Chip-Cookie flavours, 15% will be reinfections of the same previous varieties in January. We won't have loads of people getting it in December also getting it again in January and not being counted.

Although the Christmas break will have had a knock on effect, we're long past that. The only difference now is school having been back for a week. Given the exposure in December though, I doubt there are many kids left who haven't been exposed with enough chance to catch it. It's not like there were lots of mitigations in place to prevent them catching the virus. Day in, day out, surrounded by people with Omicron, what proportion will have evaded it and still be vulnerable to catch it now? I suppose that's quite regional though as Omicron wasn't widespread in some areas. This might mean the 'peak' is the population-dense London having hit herd-immunity but the rest of the country will lag and drag national numbers out for longer.
 
Shifty Geezer said:
Is there reason to think people with +ve tests are less likely to report them than people with -ve tests?
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In Ohio, USA there is simply no means for the rapid response home tests to be reported into the health department systems. I posted about this before. They're only setup to get feeds from the large testing labs or the hospitals themselves. Those tests aren't reported on at all when used as intended (taken home), positive or negative results. This includes all rapid tests that were given away or purchased from stores where samples do not have to be sent into a lab for testing.
 
Shifty Geezer said:
Is there reason to think people with +ve tests are less likely to report them than people with -ve tests?

Yes, it can't be a huge amount as it'll be cases that were pre-Omicron; we won't be getting omicron reinfections. As such, changes in numbers during this Omicron phase will be comparable. That is, if 15% were reinfections in December of people who had Delta, Beta, Alpha, Vanilla, or chocolate-Chip-Cookie flavours, 15% will be reinfections of the same previous varieties in January. We won't have loads of people getting it in December also getting it again in January and not being counted.

Although the Christmas break will have had a knock on effect, we're long past that. The only difference now is school having been back for a week. Given the exposure in December though, I doubt there are many kids left who haven't been exposed with enough chance to catch it. It's not like there were lots of mitigations in place to prevent them catching the virus. Day in, day out, surrounded by people with Omicron, what proportion will have evaded it and still be vulnerable to catch it now? I suppose that's quite regional though as Omicron wasn't widespread in some areas. This might mean the 'peak' is the population-dense London having hit herd-immunity but the rest of the country will lag and drag national numbers out for longer.
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No, just pointing out the 'positivity rate' you're calculating from number of tests reported (PCR + LFT) probably isn't a great indication of actual overall positivity. The positivity rate usually referenced comes just from PCR tests and the 7 day average for the UK is still approximately 30%. I suspect people are more likely to report a positive LFT than a negative one, but the narrative everywhere we turn has been that "It's become just a cold", it is 'mild' and we need to try and get back to 'normal' which is why my thoughts are that some people with positive LFTs don't bother to report them. Hence my view that the ONS survey will be the best indicator of what is occurring, infection-wise.

Bear in mind that we had over 10 million confirmed cases by the start of December, when Omicron started to make a dent and we've seen a further 4.5 million 'new' confirmed infections confirmed in the 6 weeks since. 10 million cases to potentially become reinfected and, from what we know of Omicron, a substantial chunk of those 10 million people wouldn't have had a great deal of protection against reinfection. I suspect that there will be well over half a million reinfections in total due to Omicron (previous reinfections would have been very low in comparison), but no doubt we'll find out soon. The dashboard is reportedly going to include reinfections at some point this month, so it will be interesting to see if they backfill the infection rates by sample date as well. I'd imagine it would be a (relatively) trivial task if the data is adequately formatted.

I think you're right that the latest expectation is that hospitalisations probably won't rise a great deal higher than they are at present, but in some areas of the country (with older/more susceptible demographics than London), the high levels will be more sustained.

My son's school has only had minor outbreaks of past infection, same goes for my daughter's nursery. Neither has been infected as far as we are aware and neither have his few immediate friends in class, so all are certainly susceptible. Omicron appears to be more likely to hospitalise young children (not just case numbers causing the increase), which is my main concern at present:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1480626665311059971

Rapidly heading towards 1,000 hospitalised children per week which will surely only continue with all the schools open and few to no mitigations in place.
 
Yep, it seems quite a lot of people remain infectious for quite a while. Here in the UK, they are talking about following the Americans and reducing isolation to 5 days. They are supposedly going to 'look at the science', but the science seems to indicate it is too risky to me. The UKHSA has just released a study which models 7 days including 2 negative lateral flow tests catches 95% of those infectious, but of course this is based on data gathered before Omicron came onto the scene so it's already out of date. The UKHSA (and its predecessor PHE) strenuously argued that there was little risk of spread in schools throughout the Delta wave, basing their claims on studies which were carried out pre-Alpha, so I'm not convinced we'll get an honest decision at the end of the day...
 
BRiT said:
In Ohio, USA there is simply no means for the rapid response home tests to be reported into the health department systems.
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I'm only talking about the situation in the UK where I'm wondering if the current decline in case growth is the natural peak or stall from behaviour or elsewhere. Mariner says not all +ve tests are reported, meaning less cases reported overall, but if the ratio of reported to non reported is the same for +ve and -ve tests, than the fall in %age +ve case rate is indicative of what's happening.

We see a drop from 12% +ve to 10% +ve to 9% +ve rates in the beginning of January in the UK. Unless all the -ve people are reporting their results but large portions of +ves are not, this should be indicative of an actual fall in cases.

Mariner said:
(with older/more susceptible demographics than London), the high levels will be more sustained.
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London has dreadful vaccination rates though. I'd expect other parts of the country with greater vaccine adoption to fair much better.

Mariner said:
They are supposedly going to 'look at the science', but the science seems to indicate it is too risky to me.
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They probably aren't looking at the science of infectivity, but the science is likely unworkable anyway. If every key worker has to take ten+ days off, too many will be off to maintain normal service functionality.
 
Shifty Geezer said:
I'm only talking about the situation in the UK where I'm wondering if the current decline in case growth is the natural peak or stall from behaviour or elsewhere.
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Right so I'm providing what information is available from elsewhere so you may be able to infer if the same restrictions apply. I wouldn't be surprised if they do, where rapid tests simply don't filter into the statistics unless done by hospitals directly.
 
Baseline figures for the ONS survey (week up to 6th January):

https://twitter.com/x/status/1481265426080350209

Still increasing in most areas with highest prevalence in England with an estimated 1 in 15 people infected during that week. Lower prevalence of 1 in 20 in the other home nations. A breakdown of the data via age groups and so forth to be released on Friday. London the only region where infections appear to have decreased at all.

I think we'll need to wait a week for the initial data to 13th January to see if cases have in fact peaked this week or not. I'd guess it will probably be the case by that point that some regions will be falling and others still rising, albeit perhaps more slowly. A lot depends on what is occurring in the schools, I suspect.
 
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If we consider the trajectory of London, peak came within a month or less of the omicron flare. Areas with the same rate should see the same peak I'd have thought, so the North West should be on the downturn now, whereas the East Midlands will have a longer hump. The SE strikes me as odd with its low rate. Hmm, checking the vaccination map, the areas with the steepest gradient correlate broadly with the lowest vaccination rates.
 
It's all down to the question just to what degree the other regions compare to London demographically and socially. I expect updated regional charts will be released on Friday so that will give a better infication, although the trajectory of the rate in the North West and North East makes me think it is unlikely to be heading down there just yet. Probably peaking about now, however. As I noted above, a lot depends on how much spread there is amongst schools/nurseries and how those infections make their way into grandparents/parents.

I don't think anyone is quite sure why the South East and South West haven't been hit to quite the same degree as other regions with this Omicron surge. I'd perhaps speculate that the South West might have had a bit more latent immunity due to the large number of Delta cases in that neck of the woods caused by the Immensa Labs cock-ups which disproportionately affected that area. Recent Delta infection + a booster could well keep the Omicron rates down. And, of course, the South West is a little isolated from much of the rest of the country in the winter months, Bristol aside.
 
What's going on with the high death numbers reported on the dashboard over the past couple of days? 398 reported today and there were 379 reported yesterday! That's higher than any number reported since February 2021. Backfilling of data from the post-Christmas and New Year period, I suppose? If so, it will hopefully drop right down again tomorrow.
 
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