Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19) (SARS-CoV-2) [2020]

You really should be sure you know how to conduct new testing methods before you roll it out.

We began baseline saliva testing at assisted living facilities last week, but some facilities noticed inconsistent results. We’ve paused this method of specimen collection temporarily as we conduct controlled validation testing to determine why there have been irregularities.
​

 

2019 Novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19) for Dallas County Texas
https://www.dallascounty.org/departments/dchhs/2019-novel-coronavirus.php
https://www.dallascounty.org/Assets/uploads/docs/covid-19/press-releases/august/082720-PressRelease-DallasCountyReports219AdditionalPositiveCOVID-19Cases.pdf

August 27, 2020 - 70,100 confirmed cases - 895 deaths
70,100 confirmed cases up 219 and five new deaths
those 219 new cases represent a 0.3% increase over the last day

Increases (by percent) since March 27, 2020 :
21.0%, 19.6%, 11.1%, 12.5%, 14.9%
-- Month of April 2020 --
15.8%, 13.7%, 10.8%, 10.2%, 9.6%, 3.9%, 9.2%, 5.0%, 8.2%, 7.3%, 7.0%, 4.8%, 3.8%, 5.0%, 5.8%,
4.0%, 6.0%, 6.1%, 4.5%, 3.5%, 3.6%, 3.1%, 3.0%, 2.6%, 2.6%, 3.6%, 3.0%, 4.3%, 3.5%, 5.3%
-- Month of May 2020 --
5.3%, 4.9%, 6.0%, 5.7%, 5.9%, 5.3%, 5.2%, 4.9%, 4.7%, 4.5%, 4.3%, 3.9%, 3.8%, 3.6%, 2.9%, 3.0%,
2.8%, 3.0%, 2.9%, 2.4%, 2.3%, 2.5%, 2.0%, 2.1%, 1.9%, 2.1%, 2.1%, 2.2%, 2.1%, 2.2%, 2.3%
-- Month of June 2020 --
2.2%, 2.5%, 2.2%, 2.6%, 2.7%, 2.5%, 2.2%, 2.1%, 2.4%, 2.4%, 2.4%, 2.5%, 2.5%, 2.2%, 2.1%,
2.1%, 2.8%, 2.6%, 2.4%, 2.5%, 2.5%, 2.7%, 2.6%, 2.2%, 2.2%, 2.7%, 2.9%, 2.9%, 2.8%, 2.9%
-- Month of July 2020 --
2.5%, 3.2%, 4.8%, 4.7%, 4.3%, 4.7%, 4.0%, 3.7%, 4.1%, 3.8%, 3.5%, 3.6%, 3.3%, 2.9%, 2.9%, 2.8%,
3.1%, 2.6%, 2.6%, 2.5%, 1.7%, 1.0%, 1.5%, 1.5%, 2.8%, 1.7%, 0.9%, 1.7%, 1.5%, 1.1%, 1.4%
-- Month of August 2020 --
1.2%, 1.0%, 0.7%, 1.2%, 1.0%, 0.4%, 0.8%, 1.0%, 1.6%, 1.1%, 0.5%, 0.4%, 1.1%, 1.6%, 1.3%, 9.2%,
2.9%, 1.2%, 0.6%, 0.5%, 1.1%, 1.6%, 0.5%, 0.3%, 0.3%, 0.8% and now 0.3%

Increases (by count) since March 27, 2020 :
+64, +72, +49, +61, +82
-- Month of April 2020 --
+100, +100, +90, +94, +97. +43, +106, +63, +108, +105, +107, +79, +65, +89, +109,
+80, +124, +134, +104, +84, +90, +81, +80, +71, +75, +105, +91, +135, +112, +179
-- Month of May 2020 --
+187, +181, +234, +237, +253, +246, +251, +249, +250, +251, +253, +236, +243, +235, +199, +214,
+205, +224, +225, +186, +183, +204, +172, +178, +171, +190, +197, +202, +200, +219, +228
-- Month of June 2020 --
+228, +257, +239, +285, +298, +289, +263, +254, +298, +300, +312, +328, +345, +302, +305,
+306, +413, +392, +394, +395, +408, +454, +445, +391, +403, +496, +561, +570, +572, +601
-- Month of July 2020 --
+544, +708, +1,085, +1,103, +1,062, +1,214, +1,077, +1,029, +1,201, +1,164, +1,101, +1,174, +1,114, +1,000, +1,055, +1,027,
+1,195, +1,031, +1,044, +1,026, +734, +413, +648, +659, +1,267, +800, +426, +789, +704, +537, +707
-- Month of August 2020 --
+614, +518, +382, +641, +508, +230, +422, +540, +843, +581, +298, +234, +641, +885, +754, +5,361,
+1,850, +787, +399, +308, +714, +1,086, +332, +182, +217, +578 and now +219

 

State of Texas complete COVID-19 data breakdown



https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83
https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/0d8bdf9be927459d9cb11b9eaef6101

Data as of 8/27/2020 @5:35 PM:

Total Molecular Viral Tests: 4,793,914 (Up 29,274)

Cases Reported: 597,737 (Up +5,059)

Fatalities: 12,070 (Up +265)

Texas tests per 1M population are 180,027 which places Texas as the 10th worst State.

Click this link: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us and on the page click the Tests / 1M pop column twice to sort from worst to first

They are using roughly 28.996 million as the population of Texas.

Texas is still mixing Viral and Antibody Tests in the worldometers report on total test numbers which reports 5,220,052 tests which is inflated by 426,138 Antibody Tests.

As of today the real number of Total Viral Tests for Texas is 4,793,914 which works out to be 165,330 per 1M population so Texas is really the 8th worst state in testing

 

Ohio is at 24.7K new tests.
Ohio is at +1296 new cases, with Cuyahoga County at +136 new cases.
Test Positivity rate is around 5.25% for these new tests.

Ohio's numbers are following the pattern where numbers seem lowest on the weekend and start climbing higher during the week. No progress made at all in stopping or slowing the pandemic. There needs to be stronger leadership. The Ohio Governor is allowing for the restart of in-person schooling and resumption of sports as well. It's going to go as well as everyone should expect -- total cluster fuck with massive pandemic spread followed by a lot of deaths.

Here is the trends which is using reported date and not arbitrary and incorrectly identified user reported onset date taken from https://coronavirus.ohio.gov/wps/portal/gov/covid-19/dashboards/current-trends



Here is the raw data for the last few days:

Spoiler: Raw Data

Code:

Date; Total Tests; New Tests; Tests per 1M Population; Total Cases; Cuyahoga County Cases; Hospitalizations; Total Deaths; New Cases; New Hospitalizations; New Deaths
2020-08-09 1,663,196 24,001 142,287 100,848 13,514 11,565 3,669 879 49 1
2020-08-10 1,682,271 19,075 143,919 101,731 13,640 11,629 3,673 883 64 4
2020-08-11 1,702,317 20,046 145,634 102,826 13,734 11,760 3,708 1,095 131 35
2020-08-12 1,722,857 20,540 147,391 104,248 13,869 11,901 3,734 1,422 141 26
2020-08-13 1,747,737 24,880 149,520 105,426 13,999 12,023 3,755 1,178 122 21
2020-08-14 1,773,797 26,060 151,749 106,557 14,120 12,128 3,784 1,131 105 29
2020-08-15 1,796,692 22,895 153,708 107,674 14,278 12,210 3,824 1,117 82 40
2020-08-16 1,823,935 27,243 156,039 108,287 14,335 12,236 3,826 613 26 2
2020-08-17 1,843,274 19,339 157,693 109,062 14,418 12,319 3,832 775 83 6
2020-08-18 1,863,180 19,906 159,396 109,923 14,487 12,436 3,871 861 117 39
2020-08-19 1,882,588 19,408 161,056 110,881 14,585 12,529 3,907 958 93 36
2020-08-20 1,905,419 22,831 163,010 112,003 14,673 12,615 3,929 1,122 86 22
2020-08-21 1,930,913 25,494 165,191 113,046 14,774 12,719 3,955 1,043 104 26
2020-08-22 1,954,596 23,683 167,217 114,165 14,881 12,778 3,975 1,119 59 20
2020-08-23 1,977,822 23,226 169,204 114,802 14,955 12,800 3,978 637 22 3
2020-08-24 1,998,115 20,293 170,940 115,651 15,032 12,859 3,986 849 59 8
2020-08-25 2,021,722 23,607 172,959 116,495 15,088 12,956 3,996 844 97 10
2020-08-26 2,041,653 19,931 174,664 117,584 15,192 13,043 4,044 1,089 87 48
2020-08-27 2,109,950 68,297 180,507 118,828 15,316 13,150 4,076 1,244 107 32
2020-08-28 2,134,656 24,706 182,621 120,124 15,452 13,221 4,105 1,296 71 29

 

University of Alabama now has more than 1,000 COVID-19 cases -- with nearly 500 in the past three days

Coronavirus cases continue to mushroom at the University of Alabama, with 1,043 cases among faculty, staff and students since Aug. 19, the first day of on-campus classes.

On Friday, newly released figures showed the university recorded 481 new cases of COVID-19 on its campus in the previous three days alone. The college had reported 158 cases among employees and students before Aug. 19.

The cases are separate from the school's re-entry testing program, which required students to take a COVID-19 test before fall semester and returned only 310 positives out of 30,000 students. Cases quickly spread as students moved onto campus and Greek houses held pre-semester events.

The new cases are a small percentage of the more than 35,100 students, faculty and staff that make up Alabama's campus. But university and Tuscaloosa officials this week expressed concern about the school's quarantine dorm capacity along with the strain a rapid surge in cases would place on the city's health care infrastructure.

Isolation space at Alabama was occupied at 36% capacity as of Thursday, according to the university's dashboard.

College reopenings across the nation have led to significant outbreaks, and in some cases, reversals of campus reopenings — many blamed on fraternity and sorority gatherings or residential spaces.

UNC reported 130 student cases in the first week it met in person, and the school quickly switched to remote learning. Notre Dame University paused its in-person courses when it had 147 cases a week into its semester. Michigan State University followed suit before in-person courses even started.

Other schools are taking more targeted action. All Greek houses at Indiana University have been directed to suspend organizational activities because of positive COVID-19 tests, and eight houses are under quarantine.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...ersity-of-alabama/5662754002/?ocid=uxbndlbing

 

A reinfection case where the 2nd infection had worse symptoms than the 1st

 

Univ. of Alabama football coach Nick Saban boasted that he could keep his football players safer than if they stayed home.

Is he keeping the players apart from the rest of the university population?

 

I highly doubt that. Odds are they are part of the problem spreading the disease, being members of the Greek System.

 

As a follow-up:

University of Alabama told professors to not tell students about COVID-19 cases among their classmates

https://www.msn.com/en-us/lifestyle...d-19-cases-among-their-classmates/ar-BB18v33G

Professors at the University of Alabama's politics department were explicitly told to not tell students if their fellow classmates have been infected with COVID-19 in an email this week, the Daily Beast reported.

The university made headlines earlier this week when over 500 students, faculty, and staff members tested positive for COVID-19 just six days after opening its campus.

Despite the growing number of COVID-19 cases, university officials sent an email instructing professors "Do not tell the rest of the class," with "not" underlined.

 

I will no longer report Dallas County nor Texas daily COVID reports. However I will post other stories about Texas that are informative about COVID-19.

Such as:

Texas reports 4,732 new coronavirus cases, 154 new deaths

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/t...-coronavirus-cases-154-new-deaths/ar-BB18veN1

AUSTIN, Texas (AP) — Texas reported 4,732 new confirmed cases of the coronavirus on Saturday and 154 new deaths from the disease it causes, COVID-19.

The new coronavirus cases reported Friday pushed the overall number of cases for the six-month Texas outbreak to at least 606,530, the Texas Department of State Health Services said. Of those, the state says its estimate of the number of active cases fell by almost 3,500 to 101,189, and the confirmed number of COVID-19 patients hospitalized fell by 67 to 4,422.

However, the true number of cases is likely higher because many people haven’t been tested and studies suggest people can be infected and not feel sick.

The state said its estimate of the number of active cases fell by almost 3,500 to 101,189, and the confirmed number of COVID-19 patients hospitalized fell by 67 to 4,422.

The rolling seven-day average of the rate of positive tests has fallen from 16% a week ago to 12.16% as of Friday, the most recent rate reported by the state. Gov. Greg Abbott has set a 10% positivity rate as a target, and the World Health Organization has set 5% as the threshold for the end of the pandemic.

However, the rolling seven-day average of tests administered was 37,200 as of Friday, down from 40,400 the day before and well below the 63,900 average of Aug. 18.

 

For Covid-19, what is 'safe distancing'? It depends...

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/tech...hat-is-safe-distancing-it-depends/ar-BB18tBPf

One metres or two? Or is it six? When it comes to coronavirus social distancing, there is no single rule of thumb, researchers cautioned this week in a study.

Indoors or outside; the velocity and pattern of air flows; whether one is whispering, shouting or sneezing; air conditioning or open windows; duration of exposure; whether one is wearing a mask -- all of these elements will determine how far is far enough when it comes to steering clear of Covid-19 infection.

"Rigid safe distancing rules are an oversimplification based on outdated science and experiences of past viruses," said lead author Nicholas Jones, a researcher at Saint Thomas Hospital in London.

"Instead of single, fixed physical distance rules, we propose graded recommendations that better reflect the multiple factors that combine to determine risk."



- Low- and high-risk scenarios -

From the earliest days of the pandemic, experts have sharply debated what constitutes "safe" social distancing.

The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends "maintaining at least one metre (three feet) distance between yourself and others," and many national health authorities have issued similar guidelines.

But experiments conducted in recent months suggest this may still be too close for comfort, at least in some circumstances.

"Eight out of 10 studies in a recent systematic review showed horizontal projection of respiratory droplets beyond two metres for particles up to 60 microns," Jones and colleagues noted in the BMJ, a medical journal.

In one study, droplets that could contain live virus were detected more than six metres from the source, a distance consistent with sneezing, coughing or vigorous singing.

These findings could explain the case of a choir practice in the United States in which a person carrying the SARS-CoV-2 virus infected 32 other singers -- with 20 other likely cases -- despite physical distancing.

Sports clubs, boxing or martial arts gyms, churches, call centres are all places where people sing, pant or talk loudly.

How far a virus might spread in an indoor setting is also determined by whether the air in a room is ventilated with open windows or recirculated with an air conditioning system.

The density of occupation is likewise key.

Taking all these factors into account, Jones and his team devised a chart -- which could also serve as a guide -- to measure risk in different situations.

If you are speaking quietly in a well-ventilated, sparsely-populated office space while wearing a face mask, for example, risk is minimal.

The same scenario without a face mask, or in a crowded office, translates into a higher but still moderate degree of risk.

Shouting or singing in a poorly ventilated room without wearing a mask, however, would put one squarely in the red zone, the study found.

 

Fauci is not satisfied with the number of minorities which Moderna has recruited for its vaccine candidate. So far out of 17,458 people recruited, only 24% are minorities, which is below the percentage of minorities in the US population.:

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/08/29/health/moderna-coronavirus-vaccine-minorities-goal/index.html

But Fauci wants as much as double the percentage of minorities in the population, so maybe 66% of the trial participants rather than 32-33% of the US population.

The reason is, besides the vaccine behaving differently in different ethnic groups, blacks and Latinos have shown to be far more likely to get infected, far more likely to be in essential jobs which increases their odds of being exposed.

If the ethnic composition of the Trial is not adequate, Moderna may be required to enroll more than 30k participants.

 

I am doing the exact same for Ohio. Though I'll still be tracking things for myself in case work ever starts trying to recall people back to the office.

Its just too disheartening to do day in day out, when you see the trends and couple it with the complete lack of leadership. The current leadership boasts at how they're doing such a great job at keeping daily infections down to some ever expanding and trending upwards number, while the death toll lags by a few weeks.

You realize there is no end in sight until there are multiple well tested vaccines, millions produces, millions are vaccinated, and everyone takes proper precautions. That is a long ways away. In the meantime a large enough proportion of the country are moving ahead with behaviors that will cause severe loss and harm.

 

Here's a feel good story, at least knowing one government isn't taking things lightly...

American Driving through Canada to Alaska Fined $569,000 for Stopping to Sightsee
U.S. drivers are allowed across the border right now if they're headed to Alaska, but the Canadian Pandemic Act says they'd better not dawdle on the way up.

Banff National Park in Alberta, Canada, has some of the most beautiful sights in all of North America. Some might say the views are priceless. But one American managed to put a price tag on seeing the peaks and now faces a potential fine of more than a half-million dollars for visiting the area during the COVID-19 pandemic.

John Pennington, from Walton, Kentucky, was recently arrested in Banff for violating Canada's Quarantine Act. As you might suspect, that's a new law that was implemented to limit the spread of the coronavirus in the country, part of the country's broad approach to combating the disease. Thus far, fewer than 10,000 people have died from COVID-19 in Canada.

As part of the new rules, Canada and the U.S. have closed the border between the two countries to nonessential travel since late March. Commercial vehicles and other essential vehicles still cross, and Pennington was allowed through the border thanks to a loophole of sorts that lets Americans drive from the Lower 48 through Canada and into Alaska (and vice versa), as long as they drive straight through, i.e., they can't go looking at the majestic Banff mountains. Canada's rules give drivers "a reasonable period" to make the drive and they "must limit [their] travel within Canada to the most direct route" to their destination while "avoiding all national parks, leisure sites, and tourism activities."

So, when Pennington's car with Ohio plates was reported to police at a sightseeing gondola on Sulphur Mountain in the park, the mounties arrested him, and he now faces a fine of up to $569,000 ($750,000 Canadian) as well as up to six months in jail. Ironically, he now has to appear in Canadian court in November.

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a33839625/american-driving-canada-coronavirus/

 

He won't be fined the max. Probably be like $1000 ($760US).

 

Interesting news about a new antibody test which provides results in 15 minutes. Similar technology to a pregnancy test:

https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeli...ghts-on-a-new-coronavirus-test-and-on-testing

Not as accurate as PCR tests but much cheaper and much, much faster and the few false positives returned and few false negatives mean that this sort of test could be helpful if used correctly.

This is linked to a very interesting view from an epidemiologist at Harvard who believes we should change the way in which we organise testing:

https://www.rapidtests.org/

It certainly makes sense. Have frequent, cheap, tests which might not be as accurate but could potentially help cut the asymptomatic infections which it seems drive the spread of the virus. If you take a cheap, accurate-ish and quick test every time you arrive at the factory/office/school and pick up most of those who are either asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic. They could then be tested by PCR (whilst isolating), to confirm it wasn't a false positive. A move to this method of testing (along with contact tracing) would also reduce the pressure on the numbers of PCR tests to enable faster turnaround.

The logic behind it certainly makes sense to me, providing the paper strip tests are cheap enough and accurate(-ish) enough.

Are the authorities likely to change tack at this late stage, however?

 

Another aspect to be considered in this paper from South Korea which investigated infections in children:

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamapediatrics/fullarticle/2770150

Their estimates are that up to 93% of infections in children may be missed without a comprehensive testing regime. As somebody whose 20 month old daughter has just resumed nursery for the first time since March and whose 4 year old son begins school this week, this is, erm, mildly concerning. Especially if you consider that we are reliant on my septuagenarian parents to help out with the children on some days. Very few infections in our local area, but at the first hint of a surge, I'm going to need to try and plan some sort of contingencies. My wife is a teacher in a secondary school so we've got the addition infection routes to consider!

 

Sad and entirely expected, only question was which state would feel the impact first...

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/sturgis-motorcycle-rally-covid-19-death-minnesota/

Minnesota first to report COVID-19 death linked to Sturgis Motorcycle Rally

Health officials in Minnesota have reported a COVID-19 death linked to the Sturgis Motorcycle Rally. It is the first coronavirus fatality reported in connection with the rally, which drew hundreds of thousands of bikers to the small South Dakota town last month despite coronavirus concerns.

The patient in Minnesota was in their 60s and had been hospitalized and in the ICU, an official from the Minnesota Department of Health told CBS News via email Wednesday. At least 50 cases in Minnesota have been linked to Sturgis, the official said.

Nationwide, over 250 coronavirus cases are reportedly linked to the rally, according to CBS Minnesota.

Last month, South Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Montana, North Dakota, Wyoming and Washington began using contact tracing to determine how many Sturgis visitors may have brought the virus back home with them.

 

Some researchers are forming a Bradykin hypothesis about covid. Recently a supercomputer simulation was run, analyzing 2.5 billion genetic combinations. Results were analyzed by a team led by Dr. Daniel Jacobson, in charge of computational systems biology at Oak Ridge National Labs. Jacobson published his results in July.

https://elemental.medium.com/a-supe...teresting-new-theory-has-emerged-31cb8eba9d63

Other researchers have also come to suspect Bradykin and have tested drugs for it:

https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/is-a-bradykinin-storm-brewing-in-covid-19--67876

 

NY Times reports that the CDC has notified public health officials in all 50 states and 5 large cities to prepare for vaccine distribution in early November.

Both Moderna and Pfizer vaccines would require extreme cold handling, so they would have to line up the logistics.

I don't like the timing either but the expectation is that health care workers would be among the first vaccinated. If that is the case, you'd think doctors and nurses would demand to see data before agreeing to be vaccinated before formal, not EUA, approval.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/02/health/covid-19-vaccine-cdc-plans.html