Console Tidbits

most interesting part of this, is the % at the bottom of where the most sales come from in the US, Walmart being the leader...yes, I am looking at all of you who scoffed everytime I mention them being left out of NPD numbers is a drastic difference.

Wedbush Morgan Securities released a PDF of an in-depth look at the interactive entertainment software industry. It's 138 pages long and here's just a little from it.

Some interesting stuff from it...I didn't include everything from it, but the stuff that popped out the most from skimming through it:

* Although we believe that Internet gaming offers the potential fo tremendous growth, we do not expect a significant earnings contribution from online gaming for traditional publishers until adoption of the next generation consoles is widespread (sometime between 2006-2010)

* They project 132 million units of 128 bit hardware shipments in the US and Europe by the end of 2005. This is up from 80 million 32/64 bit system shipments from 1995-2000.

* They expect the next gen of consoles to appeal to an even wider audience with the inclusion of dvd playback and internet access driving the percentage of homes that own at least one console up to 51% during the 128-bit cycle from 38% during the 32/64 bit cycle.

* They expect that by the end of 2006, Sony will have 58% of the 128-bit hardware sales, with Nintendo and MS following with 21% each.

* They believe a wildcard for console sales will be exclusive console titles (1st and 3rd party).

* 26% of all primary gamers in households are female. They make up 35% of the console market and 43% of the PC market.

Demographics:
00000Male00Female
< 11 : 13% 15%
12-17: 37% 36%
18-25: 22% 24%
26-35: 16% 18%
36 + : 11% 9%

* Increasing disposable incomes of kids 8-14. The top 3 periodicals read by males in that age group is EGM, Gamepro and Nintend Power. We believe the spending for this age group has increased 300% in the last decade and influence more than $120 billion of family spending.

North America:

Consoles: 69%
Handheld: 13%
PC Software: 18%

Europe:

Consoles: 49%
Handheld: 6%
PC Software: 44%

Japan:

Consoles: 79%
Handheld: 15%
PC Software: 6%

Worldwide:

Consoles: 65%
Handheld: 11%
PC Software: 24%

Estimated manufactured cost per unit:
Sony: $160
MS: $200
Nintendo: $140

* They expect Nintendo to continue to dominate the market with younger gamers, which will let them hang onto second place in the worldwide hardware rankings. MS has the toughest battle with a lack of JPN support and a "light lineup of first party software". MS is a long-term player.

* They believe Nintendo made an error in launching the console before it had it's most popular content and that is the result of the XBox currently outselling the GCN. With the GCN's lineup of games and strong franchises, it expects strong GameCube sales over the next several years and overtaking MS in sales (#2).

Top Interactive Entertainment Software Brands (2002):

1 - GTA - $361 million
2 - Madden - $200 mil
3 - Mario - $182 mil
4 - Tony Hawk - $143 mil
5 - Spider-Man - $136 mil

Retailer Marketshare for 2002:

1 - Wal-Mart - 21%
2 - Best Buy - 16%
3 - Toys R Us - 11%
4 - EB - 11%
5 - Gamestop - 11%
6 - Target - 8%
7 - Circuit City - 5%
8 - KMart - 3%
9 - KB Toys - 2%
0 - Others - 12%
 
yes, I am looking at all of you who scoffed everytime I mention them being left out of NPD numbers is a drastic difference.
People are probably scoffing because excluding Wallmart doesn't really change the sales ratio. There's no reason to believe that distribution of sales in Wallmart is really any different than in the rest of the country.
 
I never believed that Wal-Mart sales only applied to GameCube.. I just know that Wal-Mart and Nintendo have a strong bond.

In my area it shows.

Constant advertising of Nintendo games, Nintendo pins on employee vests, Nintendo logo cloth necklaces..

They don't do that for Microsoft. :?
 
Yup, there certinly was a preception that nintendo sold so much mroe that MS at walrmart. That wasn't the case at all.

* They believe Nintendo made an error in launching the console before it had it's most popular content and that is the result of the XBox currently outselling the GCN. With the GCN's lineup of games and strong franchises, it expects strong GameCube sales over the next several years and overtaking MS in sales (#2).

This was the same thing pedople predicted when both consoles came out. now that Nintendo has released all of ther heavy hitters (or the heaviest of those), what makes them think gamecube will surpass xbox in North America now? When the strongest franchises hasn't helped eat away the lead xbox currently has?
 
Qroach said:
This was the same thing pedople predicted when both consoles came out. now that Nintendo has released all of ther heavy hitters (or the heaviest of those), what makes them think gamecube will surpass xbox in North America now? When the strongest franchises hasn't helped eat away the lead xbox currently has?

Agreed, Cube-supporters be damned, but I believe that Nintendo had the oppertunity to surpass MS with it's big name, big draw titles that have finally exited the pipeline, but squandered or (for both direct and enviromental variable reasons I won't get into) ineffective in their usage.

They have thus lost the initiative. Being a big strategy boardgamer (Go & Chess baby!), I like to put a big empahasis on the intangible quality known as initiative and think Nintendo has basically fucked themselves with this indecisive push. With the initiative basically lost, it's basically a toss-up untill E3 - atwhich point I expect Sony and Microsoft to battle it out, pushing Nintendo down. Forward looking from E3 2003, I see Sony retaining the global reign while Microsoft again increases it's position at the expense of Nintendo. I fully expect Microsoft to grasp the initiative gained @ E3 and control a stable second place - with Sony just a bit out of their league for this or the next generation.
 
I'm actually curious what heavy hitters Nintendo plans to pump out now that their ace of Spades, Clubs, Hearts, and Diamonds are out in the market. Not quite sure that F Zero and Pikmin 2 will hold the fort come Christmas.. (then again, MS seems up shits creek w/o Halo 2 imo).
 
Well Blade, a new mario kart certainly won't have the kind of impact as zelda or many other titles. Every nintendo title on the N64 was a mega hit. I don't think a single game is going to turn the tables in north america, when all the other games combined hasn't been able to do that yet. There's something to be said about a finacial institution talking abuot the xbox situation in japan while not knowing what kind of impact that has on north american sales.

Some more food for thought, is that Morgan Securities has always predicted nintendo to beat out MS, and they have always stated xbox has a thin or weak lineup. They have been wrong on everything to date imo.

The xbox has been getting cheaper to manufacture, and the new revision (annouced at E3) will be even cheaper. Sure MS lost a lot of money in teh entertainment division this quarter. i'm sure they are loosing less than before, but the reason for that is since they are selling more consoles. Which in turn makes everything cheaper down the road.
 
Johnny Awesome said:
Maybe this will silence everyone who disputed my claim 6 months ago that the Xbox cost to manufacture was $235 US or less. :)

Johnny Awesome:

Estimated manufactured cost per unit:
Sony: $160
MS: $200
Nintendo: $140

They are estimates, nothing more. Estimates just like those people that argued with you 6 months ago made.
 
Blade said:
Zurich: Mario Kart was one of the mega-hits on N64. Sales-wise, Double Dash is their new Ace.

If it had online play, maybe I could agree with you... there was little reason to leave this out imo (besides perhaps the pisspoor network adapter attach rate).
 
Quincy: Well, Zelda was their ace in Q1 this year. That's over with though.

Mario Kart 64 wasn't just another solid Nintendo-published N64 game.. it was one of their top sellers in the US.. right up there with SM64 and GoldenEye. MK64 was also the no.1 selling N64 game in Japan if I'm not mistaken! Until Nintendo announces a bigger game for Christmas 2003.. I'm going to have to call Mario Kart their primary 1st-party title for later this year.

Zurich: Totally agreed, albeit the game wouldn't likely be smooth on the 56K adapter.

Bleh, I wouldn't bother even thinking about online play anymore; Nintendo still has that stubborn "no profit, no go" attitude about it.. *sigh* You have to lose money to make money, Nintendo! Satisfy your fans.. we deserve an online Mario Kart!
 
Quincy: LAN play, yeah.. up to 8 players in the same room.

Now don't get me wrong, I accept multiplayer the way that Nintendo does it now (split-screen) and 8-player LAN play is an improvement.. but online play is obviously superior (especially in FPS's) and it's getting bigger thanks to things like Xbox Live.

LAN play = thumbs up, but given the climate of the console world right now.. they could do better.
 
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