Baseless Next Generation Rumors with no Technical Merits [post E3 2019, pre GDC 2020] [XBSX, PS5]

[VitaminB6]

Old supposed leak being discussed on Reset and Gaf. Seems fairly accurate in regards to XBSX specs but I'm not sure about the studio acquisitions as I don't really follow that. It was from Jan. 2019.

https://imgur.com/a/i3TnTKk

 

[goonergaz]

There's a slight difference in the fact that you are in control of your own vacation, he is not in control of what Sony does, nor does he know exactly what Sony has planned. His information can be dated, yours is always current.

I find his comments contradictory:
o'dium - verified developer at resetera said:
Man, the 9tf dream is years old. Sony ditched that a long time ago. That was their original plan, to release a 9tf machine sometime in 2019. But those plans changed in 2018, so they could release a faster unit in 2020. They have had a while to work on things, it’s not a last minute change. People need to let go of the 9tf stuff, it’s pure fantasy.

• The way he ends with 'pure fantasy' raised a red flag for me because he had just wrote that 9TF system was real the sentence before.
• So if I'm following along, it's not fantasy at all, at one point in time it was pure reality according to him.
• That's unfortunate because we can prove that because Github leaks indicate exactly that and this is information coming from him after the fact
• This leads me to ask: so why deep into 2019 is Sony still testing this expired 2018 chip?
• I'm going to ignore my bias against the fact that I don't believe many studios would be peddling this type of information around, strategic insights into Sony would usually be 1 degree from Cerny.
• But it's also clear his contact to the PS5 kit is not direct. Nor does he have direct 1 degree access from Cerny; so how would a studio go about knowing so much about what Sony is trying to do with it's hardware
• Where i worked they just gave us a kit, not a story to go along with it.

2) But those plans changed in 2018, so they could release a faster unit in 2020
It's based upon how you read this sentence.
1) if you use could as the past tense of can, then this is a statement, the statement being they changed the plans in 2018 so that they can release a newer more powerful model in 2020.
2) if you read it another way: the plans changed in 2018, so they _could_ (as in possibility) release a faster unit in 2020 - and since he's not exactly sure about the concrete values, he doesn't know how the values have changed. That doesn't mean they built a ground up new chip. It could just mean clocking or thermal changes, which he talks about, which is talked about by others before his post.

I'm not saying his information is bad though;I'm not going to judge people who want their box to be the most powerfull etc.
I just wished it was posted on DF or DF made these announcements. I would have way less questions than I do now about it.

I see what you’re saying, but largely the internet is full of bad English, so picking on this to disprove his info seems a bit harsh.

I’m not saying he’s legit, but....

 

[iroboto]

Or maybe you don't need to over analyse someone talking colloquially on a message board? I've posited that perhaps the earlier chip designs were found to be useful for ealy devkits and/or backwards compatibility testing even after being superseded.

you're right I don't have to. I mean I could have sat back and said squat.
I'm not disagreeing with what Odium wrote (I don't have insider knowledge on Sony). I just don't think it should be considered ground truth and I stated my reasons for it. I'm done talking about it though, I'm just contributing to noise at this point in time.

 

[bgroovy]

If someone wants to buy in to the github leak 100%, who gives a shit? Person A says it's wrong and PS5 is X. Person B says no it's what's in the leak. Neither of these opinions matter. It's a videogame player, and the official specs will come out eventually. If someone ends up being wrong, it doesn't matter, unless they were being an asshole about it. Then we'll all laugh at them after the fact. It's fun to bounce opinions back and forth, but if people are getting defensive about their positions then it's probably time to put their big boy pants on and step away.

Great in theory, but certain people just can't help but be aggressively insistent that their opinion is actually verified fact.

 

[goonergaz]

If someone wants to buy in to the github leak 100%, who gives a shit? Person A says it's wrong and PS5 is X. Person B says no it's what's in the leak. Neither of these opinions matter. It's a videogame player, and the official specs will come out eventually. If someone ends up being wrong, it doesn't matter, unless they were being an asshole about it. Then we'll all laugh at them after the fact. It's fun to bounce opinions back and forth, but if people are getting defensive about their positions then it's probably time to put their big boy pants on and step away.

it’s not that they believe it, it’s just for every fecking insider who says something different to github the same defence line of ‘but github proves otherwise’

 

[Mitchings]

I really hope there's some hardware ML capabilities in their on both consoles. It's the one last unknown for a feature that would be great in consoles and it would suck if we have ~7yrs without it as a part of the 'generational baseline'.

Having RT/VRS/ML + SSDs in consoles and PC will really get the ball rolling on all those technologies; and make them standard much quicker.

If PS5 is 10.8TF+, both consoles have at least 16GB RAM dedicated to games (w/ separate pool for OS) and we get some hardware accelerated ML capabilities. Then the rest is gravy, I'm happy at that point..

..It's amazing how far we've come. I remember chatting on various forums with people about 18mths back and most were being "realistic" with 2.8GHz Zen1 8C/8T CPU, 8TF GCN GPUs, no RT, no VRS. SSDs were off the table and at most it would be a big HDD with a tiny ssd cache. And they'd be cheap $349-399 boxes with no bells and whistles because stuff and things; and suchlike and whatnot.

 

[Deleted member 13524]

There's a slight difference in the fact that you are in control of your own vacation, he is not in control of what Sony does, nor does he know exactly what Sony has planned. His information can be dated, yours is always current.

To the best if my knowledge, @goonergaz cancelled his planned 2019 holiday so he could save money and make a better trip in 2020.
This is what he said a couple of hours ago so my info could be wrong, but I'm confident of how valid my info is.
Is this a better example?

This leads me to ask: so why deep into 2019 is Sony still testing this expired 2018 chip?

The github shows only rasterization tests on a GPU. There's no proof that the chip being tested is anything other than a Navi 10 with just as much enabled units as you need for PS4 Pro backwards compatibility.


As for the rest, I agree that colloquial web forum language shouldn't be taken apart to the level you did so.

 

[iroboto]

I see what you’re saying, but largely the internet is full of bad English, so picking on this to disprove his info seems a bit harsh.

I’m not saying he’s legit, but....

right; fair enough.
My experience with this type of thing might be analogous to a court trial. Leakers are like witnesses, the lawyers and prosecutors are journalists, and the evidence are real data points that can't be refuted. Like datamined sources.
So a witness is like a person who saw the suspect at a certain time and place. They are like bystanders that happened to be around a suspect at the time of the crime.

I don't expect a witness to know what the suspect did for the entire duration of the crime.

What i'm trying to say is, my experience is that I can be given information that is confidential, because we're friends. And they are excited about talking about their work, and they have some passion about what they are working on. But I'll never ask them, so many cores, what clock rate, what's the TF? or when to expect it, or this or that. They will tell me whatever they want to tell me, and I'll just listen. If I start asking real questions, they are going to stop being my friends real soon and they'll never tell me things ever again. I have family who work at Apple, and part of the orientation is that you never talk about what you're working on, and you never ask people what they're working on, or what areas they work on. It's really tight.

So what's available as information, is limited and often just sporadic - they are reminded daily not to talk about this shit. This includes my family, he don't tell me shit until after release.
I don't see the full picture and it may take several people to piece together enough of a picture to write about for a journalist.

When I read a single leaker is writing a full story on Sony and MS of what's been going on fro the last 2 years and with all the data points filled in nicely, I just find that unlikely and that has not been my experience.
The amount he wrote there if all true, DF could have at least five 20 minute videos on. I mean they spent 20 minutes on a official press release.

So I while I believe that he is offering up some points that are uniquely theirs, I also think many of those points that Odium has been offering up, are not his as a primary source, but rather points that he's extrapolated from reading other leakers and he's trying to piece together his own story. And that makes it weak.

As you can see, everything Odium has said, has actually been leaked earlier.

 

[PSman1700]

it’s not that they believe it, it’s just for every fecking insider who says something different to github the same defence line of ‘but github proves otherwise’

The problem is that everyone is an insider these days.

 

[Scott_Arm]

it’s not that they believe it, it’s just for every fecking insider who says something different to github the same defence line of ‘but github proves otherwise’

So what? Honestly, who cares?

 

[mpg1]

I really hope there's some hardware ML capabilities in their on both consoles. It's the one last unknown for a feature that would be great in consoles and it would suck if we have ~7yrs without it as a part of the 'generational baseline'.

Having RT/VRS/ML + SSDs in consoles and PC will really get the ball rolling on all those technologies; and make them standard much quicker.

Might not need dedicated ML hardware:

AMD: Radeon VII Has Excellent Results with DirectML; We Could Try a GPGPU Approach for Something NVIDIA DLSS-like
https://wccftech.com/amd-radeon-vii-excellent-result-directml/

At last year's Game Developers Conference 2018, Microsoft announced a framework "Windows ML" for developing machine learning based applications on the Windows 10 platform, and "DirectML" that makes it available from DirectX12.

We are currently experimenting with the preview version SDK of DirectML, but Radeon VII shows excellent results so far.

By the way, Radeon VII scored about 1.62 times the GeForce RTX 2080 in "Luxmark" which utilizes an OpenCL-based GPGPU-like ray tracing renderer.
Based on these facts, I think NVIDIA's DLSS-like thing can be done with a GPGPU-like approach for our GPU.

 

[AlNom]

When you're all talking about ML, is it just making use of FP16?

 

[mpg1]

When you're all talking about ML, is it just making use of FP16?

It can..

 

[iroboto]

When you're all talking about ML, is it just making use of FP16?

For deep learning; yes. A large majority of it is FP16.
Data science support for 64/128 bit exists but those are specific use cases. Signal processing etc where they require that level of accuracy

 

[AlNom]

I'mma need a frametime graph to show where raster/pix/vert, compute/ML, and RT fit together for async purposes.

Wonder if they'd need to beef up the caches, register files etc. to mitigate contention. I guess Navi changed things up with the cache hierarchy as is.

 

[PSman1700]

Try making a simple search on how many hundreds of times @PSman1700 wrote the PS5 is 9TF / 9.2TF in different ways. It's an account with 11 months and >1300 posts, the massive majority of them saying practically the same thing, in the same sub-forum and in the same thread.

It is no different then you coming with all those 'insiders' from neogaf, reddit etc. Since everyone can be an insider, even you and me, since this is the baseless thread, one could come with another insider or pastebin every minute of the day claiming whatever one wants to see. I only go after the data from the AMD testlabs that leaked about two months ago, you have serious problems with hard data, that is your problem.
In the same vein, i could say that the only posts you have contributed to this thread are from insiders pretending to have data from both next generation consoles.

I have no idea why you are implying my 1300 posts in 11 months have been all about the 9.2TF PS5 amd testlab leak in this baseless section. The Github leak happened two months ago, how you can claim that the massive majority of them have been about 9.2TF in this thread since two months is beyond me.

Oh and, MS basically confirmed exactly what was in the AMD leaks, 12TF with RT. Now it's Sony's turn, around 9TF RDNA1, with their own RT solution?

 

[Rangers]

We are almost a year form the launch!

It's getting close to March. closing on just 8 months until November launch. Thank goodness for those of us craving info. Sony has to reveal the thing sooner or later.

If I wanted to find leakers I'd give every studio with a dev kit slightly different versions of the target specs.

There hasn't been hardly any leakers that post a specific Tflop figure down to a tenth place anyway.

Cover that in the article by limiting info to ballpark figures and generalisations. At this point, the forecasting of PS5's hardware just needs to be moved off the largely accepted 9.2 TF target if that's the reality. So OsirisBlack can go to DF, present the evidence, and have DF tell the world it isn't 9.2 TFs and PS5 is faster than that.

Odium's leaks seem to have the most credibility off github currently, though make no mistake I'm still all in on github. It might be crude but any leaks that seem to be take what Xbox has and add a little bit (the droves of 12.x-13 TF PS5 "leaks" that sprung up after Series X was revealed), are received harshly by me. Ironically a leak that goes against the grain and still has PS5 slightly under seems more credible.

I agree. I've considered two different threads, with one policed better for open-ended discussion, but it'd be a lot of work. At the end of the day, no opinions expressed here matter, and if some like to keep repeating their mantra ad nauseum, feel free to ignore them. Proper discussion about next gen can be conducted in the Tech forum around particular theories without recourse to lean on internet rumour-mongers.

For those for whom these rumours matter and who are very vocal in their support of a viewport, there will be a reckoning when the truth outs. Much humble pie will be served up somewhere or other.

The forum has an actual ignore feature for that matter.

Great in theory, but certain people just can't help but be aggressively insistent that their opinion is actually verified fact.

People put out stuff, it's within bounds for other people to shoot it down. In fact said cycle is most what the thread is about AFAIK.

 

[mpg1]

Supposed vetted industry professional from neogaf:
https://www.neogaf.com/threads/next...leaks-thread.1480978/page-1074#post-257071638

"Alright people. One last time..

I heard that there are 2 consoles per company. The mid-gen refreshes are going to be introduced at release so that these consoles can run the entire 7yr cycle.

XSX that was released yesterday is the top end one. 12TFLOPS
There will be a base Xbox Series X that is slower than that one.

Sony is releasing 2 PS models. The base PS5 is 9TFLOPs . Their other one is also top of the line to compete with XSX top dog.

This all makes sense now as to why people are getting mixed numbers for each of the platforms.

I also heard that the top of the line models will be expensive. No pricing but I would guess around $600.

Also no dates on when the top models will come out for PS5.

My guess is that they are going to release both models at the same time.

This is ALL I know and won't be fishing for anymore info."

 

[bgroovy]

you have serious problems with hard data,

No matter how hard the data, it's your erroneous conclusions that are the problem.

 

[DavidGraham]

By the way, Radeon VII scored about 1.62 times the GeForce RTX 2080 in "Luxmark" which utilizes an OpenCL-based GPGPU-like ray tracing renderer.

NVIDIA doesn't optimize OpenCL anymore, relying instead on CUDA alone. A Vega 64 is 2.5 faster than GTX 1080 in LuxMark, beating the 1080Ti by 50%. LuxMark is in no way indicative of any ML performance.

Navi also scores incredibly low in LuxMark.