Baseless Next Generation Rumors with no Technical Merits [post E3 2019, pre GDC 2020] [XBSX, PS5]

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Tin foil hat moment:
What if Oberon is actually a desktop/laptop part for some exotic product Sony is launching? A PC that can play PS4 games as well as PC games? Some odd answer to Microsoft strategy of supporting the Xbox ecosystem in both consoles and PCs.

(Don't take this a serious though, I know changes of this are 0,01%)
It would make perfect sense if the ceo wants to collect his severance package.
 
I agree, I dont buy it because business in 2020 is much different from 2002 or 2006 for that matter. Digital, streaming, mid refresh, play everywhere etc. essentially put an end to arms race with serious price deficit. Its all about getting as much users as possible on your platform and keep it that way. Slow ramp up, loss strat, it makes no sense in todays world.

For all those reasons you give it makes more sense than ever to me.

Hardware is still the best way to lock someone into your network.
 
Didn't someone show a few pages ago that Navi10 Lite was showing up on MacOS as well? Therefore it's not a Sony exclusive SKU, it doesn't point to a custom part for Sony.
Navi10 can show up on MS as well in theory. Everyone can have access to the base architecture and bring in features that they require from up and down the chain.

it showing up on macOS is necessarily indicative that it couldn’t also show up on Sony, MS, or others like Google.
 
Everyone can have access to the base architecture and bring in features that they require from up and down the chain.

it showing up on macOS is necessarily indicative that it couldn’t also show up on Sony, MS, or others like Google.

But not Nintendo...


At least not yet, maybe 2022.
 
Tin foil hat moment:
What if Oberon is actually a desktop/laptop part for some exotic product Sony is launching? A PC that can play PS4 games as well as PC games? Some odd answer to Microsoft strategy of supporting the Xbox ecosystem in both consoles and PCs.

(Don't take this a serious though, I know changes of this are 0,01%)

0.01% you say?

Sony BRAVIA KDL22PX300
22 inch LCD TV with built in PS2

337f52c95283634d855492df3cc2d17f8384996f_307940.jpg

The PS5 devkit shape is only like that to fit the Atmos speaker array in when it's used as the soundbar ;-)

 
People argue Sony can and should recoup deficit of 600$ console that costs 500$ by PS Plus and online, but I think Sony had different plan in their mind.

I think they wanted to recoup deficit of console with ~$420 BOM while selling it for $399. Same strat as PS4 one, but selling it at a higher loss yet still maintaing fantastic price/performance ratio. Unbeatable one actually. It would have BC with PS4/Pro, it would be extremely good deal for a money and while they would lose a bit on each console sold, they would have recoup it back pretty much instantly while making sure most customers get on board ASAP.

What could have happened, if we assume Bloomberg report is correct, is that original BOM went a higher then expected and put them in weird spot.

If they sell for $399 they lose too much per console, if they sell it for $499 they lose price/perf advantage they would have held at $399. That way they dont lose money, but go head to head with competitor that always shot at higher BOM and price, thus higher specs.

If we look into rumored PS5, apart from chip itself, its all therebouts with XSX. So they really could have gone with smaller and cheaper chip but matching XSX everywhere else. If MS went with 20GB of GDDR6, I doubt 16GB of GDDR6 (highest speed modules at that) with 4GB of DDR4 would be considerably cheaper option.

If they wanted to save money, they must have looked at chip itself and figured out that at 7nm they save save substantial amount of money by going with 320-330mm² chip instead of 400mm² one.

We dont know, but IMO everything points to that direction.

I always said $399 PS5, even with 9.2TF Navi, is very tall order and that by selling it at that price Sony would position them in prefect spot. Think PS4 Pro vs XBX only without pretty much every advantage Scorpio has over Pro and few actual advantages PS5 would hold while being $100 dollars cheaper.

Therefore my theory is :

Sony aimed at ~$420 BOM (compared to $380 for PS4) while selling it at amazing price of $399, thus loosing ~60-70$ per console.

If price spikes, which Sony DID allude to, have happened, then they will be looking additional deficit on every console sold and that is not a great prospect for shareholders since early strat with lower BOM was still very agressive. Thus, Sony will be waiting on MS to see how they should price their console.

MS probably always aimed for $499 and higher BOM, but NOT much higher where they would be hurt on price if spike was to happen. Basically, XSX would cost 100$ more while original BOM was ~40$ more, thus even with spike their strat was not as price agressive for them to care.

In a World where you pay up to 1000 Dollar for a mobile System like Smartphones , makes stationary Consoles for 399 Dollar for 4K Tv's no sense, sorry to say that. We need Power, a big graphic Leap, technological Innovations , and the most important thing "QUALITY". Sony itself praising his nextgen System with 8k and 120 Fps Capabilities, so a underpowered 399 .- System doesent help us here.

And Sony is not a Newcomer in the Videogame Business, they have a huge Installbase with Ps4 and so on, so they are not under the pressure to bring the cheapest Product to the Market. If "cheap" the only best solution they can build also a gaming device with 0,5 Tflops , such a Product cost only 99 Dollar , but does it improve Games, Graphics, Gamedevelopment ?? NO. And here is the Problem with your 399.- Theory. 399.- look like that Sony dont trust his own Product. Playstation is a strong Brandname , so strong that only 399.- rescue him?? Ps4 Pro cost here in Europe around 300 Euros , and did you think Ps5 cost only 99 Euros more?? Pretty unlikely.

And i am also wondering about those 8/9Tflops rumors , because then something is wrong with 7nmm and the RDNA Architecture. Only 2-3 Tflops more Computal Power or improvement compare to the old GCN Architecture in the Xbox One X from 2017 , really ??

And all these mysterius silents from Sony, strong NDA's that no Gamecompanys knowing nothing about target specs, weak Techdemos from last year running on Ps5 Devkit with only 20-30Fps. LoL 120 Fps and 8K. Rubbish Insiders on Neogaf Forum , Resetera, Reddit, Twitter , contradict each other.

What the hell is going on here??
 
In a World where you pay up to 1000 Dollar for a mobile System like Smartphones , makes stationary Consoles for 399 Dollar for 4K Tv's no sense, sorry to say that.

TV's, mobiles etc have always been much more expensive then most consoles. What has changed since PS1 days?

We need Power

Who is 'we'? 99% of the PS5 buyers wont even know what a TF metric is. Parents buying it for their 14 year olds care if the new CoD will be available on their system. The biggest market is the casual market, they aren't thinking of 9 vs 12TF power differences.

Sony itself praising his nextgen System with 8k and 120 Fps Capabilities

They are describing HDMI2.1 features there. Even at 699, the PS5 wouldnt be a 8k/120FPS machine.

And Sony is not a Newcomer in the Videogame Business, they have a huge Installbase with Ps4 and so on, so they are not under the pressure to bring the cheapest Product to the Market.

Tell that to the team responsible for the PS3.

And i am also wondering about those 8/9Tflops rumors , because then something is wrong with 7nmm and the RDNA Architecture. Only 2-3 Tflops more Computal Power or improvement compare to the old GCN Architecture in the Xbox One X from 2017 , really ??

9TF would be equal to about 12TF's worth of first GCN. You're also forgetting everything else, CPU, SSD, main ram.

LoL 120 Fps and 8K.

Again it is a HDMI spec, have a little common sense.

Rubbish Insiders on Neogaf Forum , Resetera, Reddit, Twitter , contradict each other.

Follow hard data, or what MS and Sony themselfs say, or perhaps a dev going official, not insiders with friends on forums.
 
TV's, mobiles etc have always been much more expensive then most consoles. What has changed since PS1 days?



Who is 'we'? 99% of the PS5 buyers wont even know what a TF metric is. Parents buying it for their 14 year olds care if the new CoD will be available on their system. The biggest market is the casual market, they aren't thinking of 9 vs 12TF power differences.



They are describing HDMI2.1 features there. Even at 699, the PS5 wouldnt be a 8k/120FPS machine.



Tell that to the team responsible for the PS3.



9TF would be equal to about 12TF's worth of first GCN. You're also forgetting everything else, CPU, SSD, main ram.



Again it is a HDMI spec, have a little common sense.



Follow hard data, or what MS and Sony themselfs say, or perhaps a dev going official, not insiders with friends on forums.

Sony targeting the Core Market with the Playstation not only the Casuals, it is not a Console only for Children, so i dont understand your Argument. For Children we have Nintendo, and Nintendo itself cannot deny anymore the Core Market as a important Factum. No there is no evidence that 9 Tflops RDNA is 12 GCN , show me real Game World Data, that proves your Theory.
 
Even price aside it was always going to be a consumer box that sits next to the tv and pull a few hundred watts at most from the wall.
 
If Wattage such a Problem why they did not release nextgen in 2021 with 5 nmm?
Because 5nm is used for a die shrink and selling cheaper/with some profit margins. If they launched at 5nm, it'll be who knows how long until a die shrink can happen.

You do not factor the business considerations at all into your demands for moare power! What you want isn't possible for a home console. Go buy an expensive PC. ;)
 
https://winfuture.de/news,112847.html

5 nm in 2020 , 3 nm in 2022 so no Problem at all . And the Buisness is not a static Nature law , Market Members like Companys, Banks, Economist, G7 Politicans, Bilderbergers can change the market Structure if they want they do it since Caputalism is born, yes there are Limitations, and i understand that but i didnt speak about overexpensive Consoles that bring Companys down.
 
Sony targeting the Core Market with the Playstation not only the Casuals, it is not a Console only for Children, so i dont understand your Argument.

It is not only for childern, but i wouldnt be surprised if most of the userbase actually are. Not that it really matters, even casuals in their twenty's arent really aware of how many TF the PS5 is going to be, or what it will be when they decide or not to buy it.

For Children we have Nintendo, and Nintendo itself cannot deny anymore the Core Market as a important Factum.

Yes Nintendo has a younger market, but they also have exclusives, and with the switch a portable console.

why they did not release nextgen in 2021 with 5 nmm?

And then, why not wait untill 2022 for even better hardware? Yes they could perhaps have had Zen 3, HBM3, PCIE5 and/or RTX3000 or full navi 2, but somewhere you must draw a limit. I think Zen2, Navi1.5 (or even 2?), with GDDR6 and a fast SSD are a good fit for a 2020 next gen PS or Xbox.
 
https://winfuture.de/news,112847.html

5 nm in 2020 , 3 nm in 2022 so no Problem at all .
If Sony release on 7nm, they can then shrink twice to 3nm. If they release a more powerful console at 5nm, they can't price reduce so readily. These forecasts aren't a given either, while cost for die shrinks aren't increasing as well other die shrinks, to the point that some processors are being produced on older ,larger nodes because they are cheaper. 3nm and beyond is a big question mark with potentially very expensive fabrication:

https://semiengineering.com/5-3nm-wars-begin/

Launching now at 7nm makes a lot of sense as the roadmap is clear for two die shrinks remaining on the same finFET tech. Launching next node would be one hell of a gamble, especially if designing a large, expensive chip, as shrinking it cost effectively might not be possible and you might be stuck at a $400 for the life of the machine.
 
Andrew House more or less says that 7nm was a good enough point to provide the generational leap they were looking for. When you couple that with Zen 2 almost equaling Intel's best in IPC, Navi gains over Vega in IPC, and SSDs, it's hard to argue there won't be a substantial step forward in several key facets.

It was always going to be a generational leap, aside from if Sony and MS didn't want to and stayed with jaguars, a mechanical spinning HDD, omitted ray tracing which arrived for costumers 2018, and stuck with a GPU that is anything below Navi at the same raw TFs.
With a BOM between 400 and $500 it is kinda hard to not offer a generational leap in 2020, over the jaguar and HDD equipped 2013 consoles, which had a relatively modest GPU for the time.

Also, zen2 might come close to Intel in IPC, but not really in clock speeds yet? Maybe Zen 3 will do that though.
 
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