Baseless Next Generation Rumors with no Technical Merits [post E3 2019, pre GDC 2020] [XBSX, PS5]

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10% difference is a difference of around ~50mm².

320bit bus will be ~16mm² extra over 256bit bus, how much will extra 20CUs be? If we go by Github leak, it will not feature additional ROPs, so 64 as Oberon.
Are you talking about my post? if so it's 15%
350x85%=297.5 or 300x115%=345
It's inline with 300 vs 350mm2.
 
Still funny to see such definitive statements made from positions of lacking knowledge.
The first part of my post is introduced with "could", so I make funny hypothesis.

The last part of my post is using data from github leak and benchs data about RDNA1 bandwidth requirement above 10tf that show that RDNA1 is quickly bandwidth starved above 10tf with only 448GB/s. So using the current known data we have, RDNA1 at 12tf + CPU + contention at 560GB/s is going to be bottle-necked by its bandwidth. I think it's a reasonable statement.
 
Are you talking about my post? if so it's 15%
350x85%=297.5 or 300x115%=345
It's inline with 300 vs 350mm2.
I think, if taiwanese rumor is even true, 300 v 350 is more of a ballpark.

Based on Scarlet video released at E3, size indicated was almost certainly bigger then 350mm². I would say closer to 370mm².

So you would have 56CU at ~370mm² and ~320mm² 36CU one.

You can easily fit 40CU Navi and Zen 2 with 1/4 of cache in 320mm². Even with custom audio engine and RT accelerated hardware.
 
No source on that. I was implying what you wrote on your first sentence. Any sort of lack of communication with this hardware could have resulted in over ambition. Not that MS specifically told Ubisoft that this was the target to go against for final.
What I wrote where? :???: I assume that when Microsoft or Sony send out devkits that they have a fairly good idea of what the retail performance target is and convey that clearly to devs. Whilst there are no guarantees, they don't vary much. I read your post as Microsoft over-selling Xbox One performance by sending out powerful devskits and that retail hardware shocked/surprised devs. Have a re-read of your post.
 
Are we sure about that ? can we trust this leaker ? because this is really surprising IMO: 2017 ? It could mean:

- Navi 10 / Ariel could be the first RDNA GPU ever developed by AMD.
- The fact that RDNA is ISO compatible with GCN could be the direct consequence of BC requirements and tests for (and paid by) Sony.
- Ariel could be the PS5 planned for 2019 (1.8ghz, sweetspot-ish with 36CUs, 8.3 tf at 448GB/s). Then they decide a 2020 release date so they overclock the shit of it (following the advice of crazy Ken) and use faster GDDR6 chips in what is called Oberon B0 (2ghz, 9.2tf at 550GB/s).

Ariel = 2019 PS5
Oberon = 2020 PS5

With that bandwidth and GPU clocks of Oberon, there should not be big differences of performance between Oberon and the relatively bandwidth starved XSX.
https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/PC_Shopping/M.1547568660.A.88A.html

In Jan.16 2019, he told us Navi 10 is about 250~260mm2. Navi 14 is about 160mm2.

The retail Navi10 is 251mm2, Navi 14 is 158mm2. Aquaruiszi' s info is only single-digit mm2 difference.




Actually he is one of the most credible insiders.





Nah he didn't said that.
https://pttweb.tw/s/4airz

"Sparkman很小顆 只有Arden一半大一點而已 但從layout來看也應該是SoC 要期待它有NG console的效能不太實際 所以就有兩種可能 1. 串流主機,就之前傳的Lockhart 2. 掌機"
"Sparkman is very small, only little more than half of Arden, but from the layout should still be SoC, shouldn't expect it have Next-gen console's power, so there is 2 possible 1.streaming console, 2.handheld"

"然後Ariel從2017年底就出現在神教 我覺得他跟索索沒關係 跟OBR的時間差太多"
"Then Ariel already shows up in AMD at 2017, i think it's nothing to do with Sony, time difference was too large with Oberon."

"之前有講過Arden比OBR大(約15%) 這少掉的面積確實可能是RT ASIC"
"I said before Arden is bigger than Oberon(15%, see his posts at Oct and Nov), the smaller part could possible due to RT ASIC"

Anyway someone said he do have info but his predict about consoles are not good, so maybe just take the info part.
這少掉的面積確實可能是RT ASIC >> Indeed the missing area is likely to be RT ASIC.



Aquaruiszi's speculation is not very good, I agree. But his speculation is based on his true info.

He knows Ariel arrived way earlier (2017) than OBR, so he makes some speculation.

He thinks OBR is smaller because Arden has RT ASIC. What info makes him to have such a speculation?

The most important thing is after seeing actual layouts he doesn't say GPU size has big difference.
He says some other things (for example, RT cores) that makes OBR smaller than xbox.
 
What I wrote where? :???: I assume that when Microsoft or Sony send out devkits that they have a fairly good idea of what the retail performance target is and convey that clearly to devs. Whilst there are no guarantees, they don't vary much. I read your post as Microsoft over-selling Xbox One performance by sending out powerful devskits and that retail hardware shocked/surprised devs. Have a re-read of your post.
Right. Yea I think the alpha kits over sold the alpha Xbox one and developers had the rug pulled from them when silicon arrived.
IIRC I was there when alpha PS4 arrived at the studio I was working at. Just the GPU card. Which they put into one of the towers they were working on. When I heard the devs were leaving to see Durango they told me it was a PC box.

So I guess perhaps on my opinion of things playing out; I think there could have been more misinterpretation of what to expect from MS over Sony. But I wasn’t there for comms or documentation (I was working on PS@home title, they were working on indies for PS4) so my commentary is probably moot.

I’m unsure if developers were shocked by final performance.
 
https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/PC_Shopping/M.1547568660.A.88A.html

In Jan.16 2019, he told us Navi 10 is about 250~260mm2. Navi 14 is about 160mm2.

The retail Navi10 is 251mm2, Navi 14 is 158mm2. Aquaruiszi' s info is only single-digit mm2 difference.




Actually he is one of the most credible insiders.






這少掉的面積確實可能是RT ASIC >> Indeed the missing area is likely to be RT ASIC.



Aquaruiszi's speculation is not very good, I agree. But his speculation is based on his true info.

He knows Ariel arrived way earlier (2017) than OBR, so he makes some speculation.

He thinks OBR is smaller because Arden has RT ASIC. What info makes him to have such a speculation?

The most important thing is after seeing actual layouts he doesn't say GPU size has big difference.
He says some other things (for example, RT cores) that makes OBR smaller than xbox.
I do believe he could have info on size of die, but makings? Seems to be guessing.

I am also pretty sure both MS and Sony will go for AMDs RT solution from next gen RDNA. Makes no sense to go your own way when AMD and Nvidia, biggest GPU providers in the world, will have their own RT and design entire chip you use.

I think he is speculating on rumor the other day which said that based on Github leak, PS5 wont have GPU/AMD RT. That is wrong conclusion as regression test might not even include RT at the time.
 
Productions have order delays for parts. 18Gbps doesn't "seem" to be available in volume either. So they have to decide that months before.
What's to say they haven't? Available to who in volume? Also they are still 11months from launch.
 

Nothing in particular to your posts.

It's more the entire discussion where judgments are passed using definitive words for final retail products like under-powered / weaker / faster / cheaper / pricier or even console. There's still entire pieces of the puzzles missing. I understand talking about the leaked information is one thing, but the assumption that all of it or even any of it applies to final retail products is a bit of a laugh.

I still go back to my other statements that any console with 16-24 GB GDDR6, 500+ GB NVME SSD, 8+ core Zen2 CPU and Navi GPU 9TF to 12TF will be amazing, and any sort of RayTracing is exceptional.
 
I think he is speculating on rumor the other day which said that based on Github leak, PS5 wont have GPU/AMD RT. That is wrong conclusion as regression test might not even include RT at the time.
How do you think why Aquariuszi didn’t tell us
GPU size is quite different so OBR APU is smaller. He attributed the size difference to other
components (such as RT ASIC) after seeing these APU layouts.
 
How do you think why Aquariuszi didn’t tell us
GPU size is quite different so OBR APU is smaller. He attributed the size difference to other
components (such as RT ASIC) after seeing these APU layouts.
But that still means two things :

1) Either PS5 doesnt have RT and 50mm² (?) accounts for only difference in RT (I doubt MS would spend 15% of SOC (and 30%o of actual GPU) on RT. But this cannot be true when Mark Cerny confirmed hardware RT.

2) PS5 is simply smaller chip with AMDs RT like MS (note MS said "patented VRS" but nothing about RT)
 
18gbps can't happen, the yield isn't there yet to even have it in sampling quantity. Once it does, the high end bin volume becomes tied to the worldwide demand for gddr6. There are expensive GPUs where they'll pay whatever it costs to get those 18gbps parts. So I don't see how a console selling 20 million per year can procure those chips, that would be a big chunk of the production and someone else would have to buy the lower speed bins that are in the middle of the bell curve.

I think 14 is the most logical, and 16 might be possible.
 
18gbps can't happen, the yield isn't there yet to even have it in sampling quantity. Once it does, the high end bin volume becomes tied to the worldwide demand for gddr6. There are expensive GPUs where they'll pay whatever it costs to get those 18gbps parts. So I don't see how a console selling 20 million per year can procure those chips, that would be a big chunk of the production and someone else would have to buy the lower speed bins that are in the middle of the bell curve.

Isn't that something like what happened with PS4 and 8GB RAM? It wasn't even shown on memory product sheets and yet it went retail with it.
 
Isn't that something like what happened with PS4 and 8GB RAM? It wasn't even shown on memory product sheets and yet it went retail with it.

I reckon that was probably more to do with pricing, Sony simply bought a ton of capacity of GDDR5. Clamshell mode made doubling the RAM possible but that's a memory configuration option inherent to GDDR5 not some special Sony/fabrication magic.
 
Yeah it was much later they reduced to 8x 8gb and that was in line with the new nodes making that capacity available. They did use 6gbps speed which was the middle of the bell curve. There was 7gbps and 8gbps available in 2013.

It's possible the next node from samsung would allow higher speeds though, so I think 16gbps could become the high volume bin.
 
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