Baseless Next Generation Rumors with no Technical Merits [post E3 2019, pre GDC 2020] [XBSX, PS5]

[Silent_Buddha]

Or are the specs likely finalized and probably too late to change?

Pretty much all specs other than possibly final clock rate will be nailed down by now, unless one is really behind schedule. And neither of them sound like they are behind schedule.

Regards,
SB

 

[Betanumerical]

Repo has comprehensive test results for Oberon across many tests.
The repo is one that helped further confirm what I had already knew in October / November. I already made a few wagers on the 36/40 CU prior to this.

Yes it also has comprehensive results for Sparkman and Arden, with no silicon, but Sparkman and Arden are still ontime?. With Sparkman matching Arden entirely!?. It is likely that this repo matches the PS5 but honestly a lot of things don't match up and don't really make much sense so theres a chance that this is something that we completely lack context for.

Congratulations on your bets, I dont see the relevance plenty of people who are confirmed insiders are saying the opposite of you, why should we believe you and not them?. Why should we believe any of them?.

 

[Proelite]

Yes it also has comprehensive results for Sparkman and Arden, with no silicon, but Sparkman and Arden are still ontime?. With Sparkman matching Arden entirely!?. It is likely that this repo matches the PS5 but honestly a lot of things don't match up and don't really make much sense so theres a chance that this is something that we completely lack context for.

Congratulations on your bets, I dont see the relevance plenty of people who are confirmed insiders are saying the opposite of you, why should we believe you and not them?. Why should we believe any of them?.

You might not believe the info, but here is proof of me knowing about the 36CUs back in October.

Also knew Xsx specs in June:

 

[Betanumerical]

You might not believe the info, but here is proof of me knowing about the 36CUs back in October.

Im not saying i dont believe it im saying it lacks context. The specification, especially the bandwidth don't really make a lot of sense, neither do the rumours that the consoles are close nor that the PS5 has more powerful raytracing.

Having a 36CU console @ 2GHz makes no sense, the power draw and heat would be insane for little benefit and the yields would be terrible. I believe 36CU @ 2Ghz was a publicly known rumour way before October 28th.

 

[N2O]

To be fair, i think XSX actually have more potential to boost the clock(not that means they will do it though).

Yes it also has comprehensive results for Sparkman and Arden, with no silicon, but Sparkman and Arden are still ontime?. With Sparkman matching Arden entirely!?. It is likely that this repo matches the PS5 but honestly a lot of things don't match up and don't really make much sense so theres a chance that this is something that we completely lack context for.

Congratulations on your bets, I dont see the relevance plenty of people who are confirmed insiders are saying the opposite of you, why should we believe you and not them?. Why should we believe any of them?.

Oberon seems is the one could have schedule issue, according to that insider who leaked ~350mm Arden and ~300mm Oberon from taiwanese forum.

 

[N2O]

Im not saying i dont believe it im saying it lacks context. The specification, especially the bandwidth don't really make a lot of sense, neither do the rumours that the consoles are close nor that the PS5 has more powerful raytracing.

Having a 36CU console @ 2GHz makes no sense, the power draw and heat would be insane for little benefit and the yields would be terrible. I believe 36CU @ 2Ghz was a publicly known rumour way before October 28th.

Someone said PS5 has more powerful RT?

 

[Betanumerical]

Someone said PS5 has more powerful RT?

They did, I cannot find the exact quote now but it was along those lines. It also makes it strange that all this performance testing has no raytracing results for the PS5, nor does the PS5 results contain the same block name that the Arden/Sparkman raytracing is implemented in.

 

[N2O]

Damn image what happen in gaming forum if PS5 end up less powerful performance and RT than XSX.

 

[Proelite]

Someone said PS5 has more powerful RT?

OsirisBlack from Gaf. I am not going to refute it because I don't have any knowledge of the RT for next gen, besides that MS's implementation is close or the same as AMD's.

 

[Betanumerical]

OsirisBlack from Gaf. I am not going to refute it because I don't have any knowledge of the RT for next gen, besides that MS's implementation is close or the same as AMD's.

The block names for Arden/Sparkman match the AMD patent so it would not surprise me if it was the same.

 

[BRiT]

Damn image what happen in gaming forum if PS5 end up less powerful performance and RT than XSX.

A new era of peace and prosperity across the forums such as the time after Xbox One X launch.

 

[Nisaaru]

A new era of peace and prosperity across the forums such as the time after Xbox One X launch.

That would be really boring for the next year.

 

[cheapchips]

The internet will be fine. The PS5 will be better as it has more MHz.

 

[Proelite]

The internet will be fine. The PS5 will be better as it has more MHz.

Never go full Pentium.

 

[Deleted member 13524]

While a 2.0GHz GPU clock is used for what is described as the fully unlocked 'native' or 'Gen2' mode, the processor is also tested in what is referred to as Gen1 and Gen0 modes.

Does the log dump claim Gen2 is the native mode, or is DF just assuming that?

 

[Deleted member 11852]

I don't think it's too unrealistic, 7nm+ should bring some clock headroom, it only needs a ~10% clock increase from the 5700xt, not too far out of the picture. A bit optimistic but not impossible. 7nm has shown to be able to hit >2ghz, just at very high power draw, maybe 7nm+ will help with it.

7nm+ brings a a number of moderate efficiencies (10% performance is touted, along with better thermals) over 7nm but this would require the APU be redesigned. 7nm and 7nm+ are not node compatible. There is a risk in doing this in that something that may work fine in particular 7nm design could actually be worse in 7nm+. I don't know much practical experience AMD/TSMC have in collaborating on 7nm/7nm+ redesigns to know how to maximise that.

Having said that, both Microsoft and Sony will surely be looking to the long term in terms of costs and efficiencies so it may be worth the move to 7nm+ for launch rather than doing this a year in. It's costly to to have change manufacturing and I doubt neither would want to redesign their console's APU, motherboard and cooling systems a year down the line but 7nm+ could well be cost efficient compared to 7nm quite soon.

Obviously take with a huge grain of salt but a poster by the name "OsirisBlack" who is/was an insider on Neogaf is saying that both systems are very close in power with one being slightly ahead and with better ray traycing.

And this is what Jason Schreier (Kotaku) and Andrew Reiner (Game Informer) have been hearing from actual devs since summer. All the contradictory information comes from leaks, pretty much all of which has some kind of 'huh?' aspect to it.

 

[Betanumerical]

7nm+ brings a a number of moderate efficiencies (10% performance is touted, along with better thermals) over 7nm but this would require the APU be redesigned. 7nm and 7nm+ are not node compatible. There is a risk in doing this in that something that may work fine in particular 7nm design could actually be worse in 7nm+. I don't know much practical experience AMD/TSMC have in collaborating on 7nm/7nm+ redesigns to know how to maximise that.

Having said that, both Microsoft and Sony will surely be looking to the long term in terms of costs and efficiencies so it may be worth the move to 7nm+ for launch rather than doing this a year in. It's costly to to have change manufacturing and I doubt neither would want to redesign their console's APU, motherboard and cooling systems a year down the line but 7nm+ could well be cost efficient compared to 7nm quite soon.

In the GitHub leaks there are references to TSMC process nodes, 7 is one of them, 7+ is not, this makes me believe that they are both on 7nm.

Does the log dump claim Gen2 is the native mode, or is DF just assuming that?

The dump indicates that GEN2 is native mode.

 

[Deleted member 13524]

Having a 36CU console @ 2GHz makes no sense, the power draw and heat would be insane for little benefit and the yields would be terrible. I believe 36CU @ 2Ghz was a publicly known rumour way before October 28th.

This is my problem with the spec too.
I think 36 CUs @ 1.8GHz would honestly be more believable considering Navi 10's power/frequency curve.
It also goes against all the relevant sources claiming the consoles actually being close in performance and both having double digit TFLOPs.

Either PS5's CU are arranged differently, such as having more ALUs per CU or dedicated INT32 or FP16 units, or these log dumps aren't telling the full story.

 

[Deleted member 11852]

In the GitHub leaks there are references to TSMC process nodes, 7 is one of them, 7+ is not, this makes me believe that they are both on 7nm.

Yup, but what that chip is and whether it has any bearing on the silicon that will ship in retail PS5 is unknown. R&D is an iterative process and in IC terms you are iterating design and layout based on testing up the point when you need to commit to mass manufacturing. Even more so for devices with long product lifespans compared to silicon that will be updated ever 12-18-24 months because there is no avenue for course correction - you're locked in to supporting that configuration for the lifetime of your ecosystem.

 

[AbsoluteBeginner]

Does the log dump claim Gen2 is the native mode, or is DF just assuming that?

Yes, it says Native for Oberon in 36CU - 2.0GHz.

This is my problem with the spec too.
I think 36 CUs @ 1.8GHz would honestly be more believable considering Navi 10's power/frequency curve.
It also goes against all the relevant sources claiming the consoles actually being close in performance and both having double digit TFLOPs.

Either PS5's CU are arranged differently, such as having more ALUs per CU or dedicated INT32 or FP16 units, or these log dumps aren't telling the full story.

Or Navi is TDP/perf underperformer (as it was rumored late last year), but 2-3 years ago when Sony and AMD started designing the chip, 36CU and high clocks were a very logical target considering chip size and 7nm node.

This is just a theory, but could easily explain this situation. Think about it, 36CUs is clearly something Sony would aim to put in console for following reasons :

• Navi CUs are considerably larger then GCN, and entire arch was made to be clocked much higher
• 40CU Navi in desktop is 251mm²
  • This is 18% more then counterpart used in PS4 chip (HD7870)
  • This is 9% more then counterpart used in Pro chip (RX480)
• It matches perfectly to 2x18CU and 36CU from last gen consoles they need for BC
• Zen2 will take more space then Jaguar cores
• RT hardware will take additional
• 7nm design and process is more expensive then 28nm and 16nm
• There is clear reduction in die size for Sony's consoles since PS2 to rumored PS5, and clear increase of clock speeds

So, if Sony started early with designing its Navi with AMD as it was rumored, I can definitely see their targets for Navi being slightly higher then 1.8GHz sweetspot. When this turned out to be false hope, they had nothing left but continue to work on chip and hope for 2.0GHz.

If Navi sweetspot was ~2.0GHz, everyone would be talking about design being smart (which it would be, very much, but we are looking from outside in after this has been designed for 3yrs).