Baseless Next Generation Rumors with no Technical Merits [post E3 2019, pre GDC 2020] [XBSX, PS5]

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And for that we need to know if it's a fixed clock like previous consoles, or some boost clock, or laptop style TDP limiter, or whatever else.

I mentioned a while back why boost-clocks wouldn't be great idea within the game console space. Console game developers want a more consistent experience across the board for gamers and themselves when it comes to nailing down bugs causing actual performance issues.
Game/boost clocks aren't really worth it on traditional air cool setups that are too dependent on internal and external temps being just right for useful performance boost. Who wants to deal with inconsistent or fluctuating frames?

And more than likely, developers want a more consistent game framerate for a whole host of reasons.
 
I'm not talking about thermal throttling, I'm talking about boost clocks and TDP limits, which would be identical behaviour on all consoles regardless of temperature. Scaling based on occupancy.

Devs can always lock it to the base clock if they want.

OK, I get where you're coming from. Got tripped up on the "thermal" in TDP. Still introduces yet another variable that I'm not sure devs would ever willingly choose to deal with if given a choice. I consider this very unlikely to be a thing. Not that that has meant much lately. :confused:
 
I'm not talking about thermal throttling, I'm talking about boost clocks and TDP limits, which would be identical behaviour on all consoles regardless of temperature. Scaling based on occupancy.

Devs can always lock it to the base clock if they want.

Um. Doesn't Sony allow that with PS4 Pro anyhow? Their boost-game mode...
 
My thinking on Xbox being more powerful was simply based on 2 things :

1. Dual SKU strategy
2. 320bit vs 256bit bus

For first point, its self explanatory. Having one SKU aiming for 299$ and another for 499$ gives them unique chance to go "balls to the wall" on stronger SKU. This is not an option for one SKU strat where you definitely need to think about BOM and sweet spot pricepoint.

For Sony to come out with ~500$ console and still losing money on it would be surprise, but I guess they could go for that like MS is. Tbh Sony could come out very powerful as they always went with that thinking into new generation - push as far as you can. For MS, sometimes (Xbox One) it seemed like an afterthought.

2. Point is also the one I took in consideration since 320bit bus gives you a bit more headroom as far as sys BW goes vs 256bit bus. But in case you go 320bit and 14Gbps chips, you could actually lose to 18Gbps on 256bit bus + have less die space to play. So I would assume 320bit would have always been there "just in case", as anything above that is very unlikely.
 
My thinking on Xbox being more powerful was simply based on 2 things :

1. Dual SKU strategy
2. 320bit vs 256bit bus

For first point, its self explanatory. Having one SKU aiming for 299$ and another for 499$ gives them unique chance to go "balls to the wall" on stronger SKU. This is not an option for one SKU strat where you definitely need to think about BOM and sweet spot pricepoint.

For Sony to come out with ~500$ console and still losing money on it would be surprise, but I guess they could go for that like MS is. Tbh Sony could come out very powerful as they always went with that thinking into new generation - push as far as you can. For MS, sometimes (Xbox One) it seemed like an afterthought.

2. Point is also the one I took in consideration since 320bit bus gives you a bit more headroom as far as sys BW goes vs 256bit bus. But in case you go 320bit and 14Gbps chips, you could actually lose to 18Gbps on 256bit bus + have less die space to play. So I would assume 320bit would have always been there "just in case", as anything above that is very unlikely.
If ps5 and xsx end with similiar spec and price I don't see how it is bad strategy for sony. Rather easy win. Lockhart seems good strategy for microsoft but also the difference in games will be clearly visible.
 
My current desktop is running a mix of 2x 16 GB dims and 2x 8 GB dims for a total of 48 GB. :) I've been mixing and matching memory amounts ever since I started building my own PCs back in the 90's.

48GB lol, i'm still on 8GB DDR3 :p


That's not much, actually. They could sell it for 399 or 449, and take a small loss? 499 or higher is going to give trouble i suspect. Hardcore gamers may want to pay 1000 dollars or more, most casuals don't though.

The sort of obvious question for me is.....What are the chances PS5 was designed in the same wattage range as Xbox Series X?..

MS might have gone for a PC style box this time around, something maybe Sony doesn't really wanted to do from the beginning. MS has done it before with the og xbox in 2001, big and bulky yet very powerfull.

And also I think 13GB is not enough. I think 15-16GB should be the min for next gen.

Also thought that 16GB sounds on the lower side. Would i be building a gaming system now it would be 32GB at the least, and that's just main memory, vram 11GB for 2020 and later.

significantly higher power consumption

How significant is it over One X though? I don't think it's that much more then current most powerfull console One X.

1. Dual SKU strategy

I think that is the main reason why, with a dual SKU they can take the riscs, one console at 500+ dollars or something isn't that smart maybe.

If ps5 and xsx end with similiar spec and price I don't see how it is bad strategy for sony. Rather easy win. Lockhart seems good strategy for microsoft but also the difference in games will be clearly visible.

If i where Sony i would aim a tad bit lower with the specs (9 to 10TF against 12 on xsx), and 100 dollars less then the XSX, with a larger userbase to PS4 no-one will switch to Xbox, as nobody cares about teraflops, besides console warriors and tech nerds like we, with little to no difference in games itself. Sony could also have a more practical console shape/size with that. It is like if MS aims at the spec hungry ppl with the xsx, but people that want high TF numbers and don't mind to pay more for that could get a 16TF navi2 gpu for their pc's next year, as that platform plays anything xbox anyways.
 
Um. Doesn't Sony allow that with PS4 Pro anyhow? Their boost-game mode...

It's still a fixed clock. It's just a higher one than the base console and limited by the compatibility of the non-patched game with operating outside of the base PS4's spec.
 
48GB lol, i'm still on 8GB DDR3 :p
If i where Sony i would aim a tad bit lower with the specs (9 to 10TF against 12 on xsx), and 100 dollars less then the XSX, with a larger userbase to PS4 no-one will switch to Xbox, as nobody cares about teraflops, besides console warriors and tech nerds like we, with little to no difference in games itself. Sony could also have a more practical console shape/size with that. It is like if MS aims at the spec hungry ppl with the xsx, but people that want high TF numbers and don't mind to pay more for that could get a 16TF navi2 gpu for their pc's next year, as that platform plays anything xbox anyways.
If I were sony I would make the same console as microsoft for the same price ;d
 
If I were sony I would make the same console as microsoft for the same price ;d

Sony has bad memories from 500/600 dollar consoles that won't go away. That and they perhaps want to have a console that replaces the PS4, under the TV in other words.
 
My question is merely what are the chances Sony did this as well...?
If they didn't, they should be a fair bit cheaper. I wonder what the BOM delta will be on a 200 W console versus a 300 W, especially if the 300 W box prioritises quietness?
 
If they didn't, they should be a fair bit cheaper. I wonder what the BOM delta will be on a 200 W console versus a 300 W, especially if the 300 W box prioritises quietness?
Well technically the compromise MS made for wattage is primarily in the form factor, not nececessarily in cooling cost.

A plain cpu style cooler would fit very well with a pair of 120mm fans in the top half (proven and inexpensive design). And the rest of the space is the ODD with the psu under it, the connectors, the rest of the board, and the nvme slot.

Maybe a bit more money here and there than a 200W design, but it looks like the major cost will be the SoC, ram, and nvme. And it's hard to see big cost reduction anywhere but the SoC, both for a hypothetical less powerful PS5, and for lockhart if it ever exist. (unless they go with a smaller memory and smaller nvme, but is that likely at all?)
 
If they didn't, they should be a fair bit cheaper. I wonder what the BOM delta will be on a 200 W console versus a 300 W, especially if the 300 W box prioritises quietness?

I mean if you prioritise cooling in the design (ie unconventional shape + large fan) then maybe the design itself is doing a lot of the heavy lifting in terms of cooling? I dunno.

I guess they are using vapour chamber again. Beefier power supply. Those would add some costs I'm guessing.
 
The sort of obvious question for me is.....What are the chances PS5 was designed in the same wattage range as Xbox Series X?..

Unless the specs are significantly less (which I doubt), it's likely in a similar ballpark.

Additionally the PS5 devkit design looks to be designed around cooling some high wattage parts (CPU and discrete GPU in the devkits, something else in shipping units).

Granted the retail PS5 could look absolutely nothing like the devikit, but it currently looks like MS might again be going the route of simple yet effective cooling (which requires more space) while Sony may be going for a more complex cooling solution again.

But at the end of the day, they'll likely be in a similar wattage range with one being slightly more than the other, just like the current generation.

Regards,
SB
 
So a single 64CU GPU would work... but a GPU using two 32CU chiplets wouldn’t? I’m not following the logic here.
In certain places of the architecture, this is the case given what we know.
Certain things that are internal to a single GPU are multiple times the width of what is seen externally, like the very wide fabric between the L2 and the CUs and/or L1.
The data fabric AMD uses to allow for multi-chip connectivity is in the wrong place in that hierarchy, as it's outside the L2. Many parts of the architecture rely on the L2 as the point of coherence/consistency, and the L2 itself isn't designed to be split between chips and still function correctly. Other items in the graphics pipeline also don't show signs of being designed to work correctly if the graphics context they support exists no more than one chip.
With Navi and the introduction of the L1 cache, it might make this problem worse since it's yet another layer of cache that is not coherent or requires more special handling and a loss of performance to keep its contents from becoming stale.
There would need to be substantial architectural changes, and architectural in this case is closer to the original meaning as far as what model is presented to programmers. It's not really defined how a graphics pipeline is supposed to work if there's more than one heavyweight context, whereas there's a long-established sense for how CPU architecture works.
There are possible directions solutions can go down, and some signs that it might be possible eventually to get enough bandwidth (at least if combined with large architectural changes just for MCM), but whether a console maker would get enough from that to foot the bill seems questionable and AMD has basically said it's not committed to the idea--though it might think about it later.


Some of my baseless theorizing as to why Sony/MS may be aiming for 12+ TF: Perhaps the chances of a Pro version of either console in the next 3-4 years is rather slim simply due to the slow down in process tech.
It would have been difficult to achieve a major separation from the original current-gen consoles at 10nm, and the mid-gen refreshes made that problem significantly worse. Getting ~2x the Xbox One X seems at least somewhat practical, given that 7nm is a somewhat better than average node transition--and also something like a bare minimum to get some daylight between the mid-gen refresh and the next gen. Even from the base consoles this jump might be just enough to not be considered too disappointing relative to how some where underwhelmed by the power jump from the last gen to current.
I was wondering how the next gen could stand out enough, and it seems other features or design elements are being leveraged in cases where there are diminishing returns on scaling and how perceptible a given performance jump actually is.


I’ll submit that such price estimates mean little when you are making PS5 size orders. ”We’ll buy 100 million stacks over the next three years.” Those are orders that you plan/finance your fab structure around, and commodity pricing is irrelevant. Sony would pay less, is about all we can say.
The throughput of those involved in the package integration might indicate if this would happen, and if that's not expected to scale sufficiently the memory manufacturers aren't going to buy into volume promise. There's also the question if it's worth committing to 100 million stacks at console component prices versus possible organic growth in the AI, networking, and HPC markets that are all willing to pay so much more. Why commit to volume production for a sub-retail buyer?


If ReRam is as fast as that presentation claimed, then PS5 could go with 8/16GB HBM + 256GB of ~50GB/s ReRAM [+M.2 slot for NVME storage].
The power numbers would hopefully be improved from that presentation, where the upper end was closing on 30W of power consumption. While I haven't been able to find the chip-only power limit for the Radeon 5700XT, at least some GPU Z shots show load can get to at least 120 out of a 225W max. Taking out inefficiency in VRM conversion and miscellaneous consumption, GDDR6 should be taking 60-70W, as a possible max. Committing to a solid-state solution with that consumption is akin to giving up about half of a 256-bit bus, or possibly going from ~768GB/s to ~512 GB/s. While having a high-speed solid-state solution is very helpful, hopefully other factors have intervened so that I wouldn't need to weigh losing that much memory bandwidth.

Honestly it looks like memory paging magic is HBCC.
At least so far, HBCC hasn't shown up in unified memory situations. The lack of an expansion bus and separate memory pool likely may make the win less noticeable, and the APU GPUs have a potentially more fine-grained ability for interacting with paged memory, since there's an XNACK mask that can track faults on a per-lane granularity.
 
Unless the specs are significantly less (which I doubt), it's likely in a similar ballpark.

Additionally the PS5 devkit design looks to be designed around cooling some high wattage parts (CPU and discrete GPU in the devkits, something else in shipping units).

Granted the retail PS5 could look absolutely nothing like the devikit, but it currently looks like MS might again be going the route of simple yet effective cooling (which requires more space) while Sony may be going for a more complex cooling solution again.

But at the end of the day, they'll likely be in a similar wattage range with one being slightly more than the other, just like the current generation.

Regards,
SB

I'm just skeptical Sony set aside aesthetics and traditional console form factor to go far as Microsoft has. But we will see I guess.
 
Have...you...seen...the...devkit... :LOL:

Yes and that's my point. If PS5 is a consumer version of that it's just basically a traditional console design with what is certainly an ascetically driven 'V' shape. (ie 'V' meaning '5') That design doesn't strike me as "cool and quiet is all that mattered"

Series X on the other hand is an exhaust pipe with a console in it.
 
Yes and that's my point. If PS5 is a consumer version of that it's just basically a traditional console design with what is certainly an ascetically driven 'V' shape. (ie 'V' meaning '5') That design doesn't strike me as "cool and quiet is all that mattered"

Series X on the other hand is an exhaust pipe with a console in it.
I was joking a bit, but MS went SFF PC style and quite a clean look. It was obviously an important compromise of the form factor leading to lesser usability for some, but not really compromising the aestetics. (beauty in the eye of the beholder and all that...)

The ps5 devkit seems to be 100% functional choices despite looking weird, and I think they might be going with an aestetic compromise, but still acheive a traditional form factor.

There are many ways to serve a power target.
 
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