DaveBaumann wrote: "modern processes take 3 months to turn around, such that if you have a popular part and want to order more wafer for that part it'll be three months before the extra supply is seen"
Fodder replied: "Can you expand (in layman's terms ) on why it takes quite so long? Or do you just need to book (a long time) in advance?"
20 years ago I worked in a design group in a building with a fab, so I know a little bit about how it used to be done. Even then, it took many weeks to physically move wafers through the fab line, even after the masks were all made, simply because of the number of steps required in fabrication. Today, everything is much more complicated, but let's think about back then.
Consider what is needed to put one layer of metal on the wafer. First you need to cover the whole wafer with a thin layer of metal. The thickness must be precisely controlled, so you can't do it quickly -- maybe you use vapor deposition. Then you need to physically move the boat-loads (that's a technical term) of wafers to another machine where you deposit a "resist" layer. Then another machine where you use the mask to expose the resist. Then another machine where you etch off the part of the resist where you don't want metal. Then another machine where you etch off the metal, except where there is resist. This is another step that must be very precise (and therefore slow), or else you over-etch or under-etch and whole boat-loads of wafers are ruined. Then a step where you wash off the remaining resist.
Multiply that times the total number of layers, which I think these days goes into the dozens. Add in the fact that putting on a metal layer probably requires more steps these days than I described above. And then consider that the boat-loads probably have to wait at all of the machines, since keeping all of the machines working all of the time is more important than speeding the wafers through, at least for production. There are ways to get small quantities more quickly for testing and debug, but that is costly.
Add on top of all of that any scheduling issues at the fab, plus vendor fears of having excess (and potentially valueless) inventory, and it takes even longer. Perhaps the mystery is not that it takes 3 months to turn around new parts, but rather that it can be done that quickly!
Enjoy, Aranfell
PS: Throw in the incredible capital cost of all of these machines, plus the incredible expertise required for the research necessary to keep shrinking the dimensions (plus the capital cost to buy new machines for each new process) and it becomes clear why few companies other than specialists try to run fab lines these days.