Apple iPad announced

[rpg.314]

I based that on the level of disparity in their app stores. Apple easily has a ~1.5 year lead there. Once the market settles into 3-4 big players, then Apple's strengths will begin to matter there.

 

[Arwin]

I based that on the level of disparity in their app stores. Apple easily has a ~1.5 year lead there. Once the market settles into 3-4 big players, then Apple's strengths will begin to matter there.

One important impediment to Apple's growth has been the exclusivity deals they've had with telecom providers. Now that they are being removed, it will be interesting to see if this helps.

Another important impediment however is only being able to develop applications for the iPhone on a Mac. This is an issue that could be fairly easily solved, but it's not happening right now and I don't know when it will. This will hold the App Store back.

Also, it's very easy to port applications like those on the App Store to something like the Android platform. It may take Google another year to iron out the kinks in Android (though a fair few developers already prefer it) and make the Market Place as friendly as the App Store, but it will happen and this lead could dissolve really quickly.

The smartphone market is extremely competitive, and while Apple could have gotten to a complete market domination position by now, I think the only way they could have done that is to do something very un-Apple like - i.e. by opening up iPhone OS to other cellphone manufacturors, and iPhone OS development to the Windows platform, or release OS/X for all PCs rather than just the Mac.

I don't think that's very likely to happen though.

 

[eastmen]

Right now iphone only works on at&t here in the states. Once it moves to verizon , sprint and tmobile it will gain market share like a mofo.

We also have 4g coming , sprint is rolling it out , verizon is supposed to start select markets the end of the year and at&t is in 2011. This will bring broad band speeds to these phones along with networks better able to cope with high data traffic. At&t's network is amongst the worst currently for 3g both in coverage and its capcity to handle traffic.

Apple has the brand in the smart phone arena. Many of andriod's sales is at the cost o windows 6.5

 

[wco81]

Apple may have blown it by not selling on Verizon last year, before Android got a foothold.

 

[Pressure]

Apple may have blown it by not selling on Verizon last year, before Android got a foothold.

The market in the United States is comparatively rather small compared to all the markets the iPhone is selling. I think they are doing alright.

 

[Lazy8s]

With the largest emphasis on and the tightest integration of 3D/multimedia hardware to the software (native acceleration from the ground up), Apple is still the only phone maker that really understands how to push a mobile platform, and they'll continue to dominate until someone else fully "gets it".

 

[wco81]

But a lot of people will go for "good enough." Android may not be as polished but there will be a wide array of hardware options, at different price points, on different networks.

Especially on the price issue, they could cause Apple trouble when they were doing BOGO with Droid just a couple of months after release.

 

[silent_guy]

But a lot of people will go for "good enough." Android may not be as polished but there will be a wide array of hardware options, at different price points, on different networks.

Looking at the just announced results, that moment isn't there just yet... They sold more iPhones in the past quarter than during the holiday quarter.

 

[Florin]

I based that on the level of disparity in their app stores. Apple easily has a ~1.5 year lead there. Once the market settles into 3-4 big players, then Apple's strengths will begin to matter there.

Also, considering that you mentioned mobile devices in general, people seem to be forgetting about the ipod. That one is sitting at a sweet 70% marketshare among media players, and although not counted in iPhone market share, the Touch counts for more than 40% of the iphone OS devices out there.

These are markets that Microsoft never managed to capitalise on and if they're not careful the same will happen on the emerging tablet/e-reader/mid categories. I guess at this point in time Android is looking like a more likely competitor for Apple.

 

[wco81]

Great news.

But I think Apple will feel pushed to put out the strongest products they can, with the competitive pressures, which is great for consumers.

Looks like the leaked 4G prototype was for real and rumors suggest a good improvement over the 3GS.

 

[eastmen]

Also, considering that you mentioned mobile devices in general, people seem to be forgetting about the ipod. That one is sitting at a sweet 70% marketshare among media players, and although not counted in iPhone market share, the Touch counts for more than 40% of the iphone OS devices out there.

These are markets that Microsoft never managed to capitalise on and if they're not careful the same will happen on the emerging tablet/e-reader/mid categories. I guess at this point in time Android is looking like a more likely competitor for Apple.

MS is making moves with the tablets.

You'll see win mobile 7 tablets by the fall when the os is done. I'm also of the belief that a moble xbox 360 is in the cards for next e3 ( i think they have thier hands full with win mo 7 this year)

 

[Ailuros]

A bit far-fetched yes. But since Apple's juggernaut shows no signs of slowing down, that scenario appears more and more reasonable as time goes on. Once their market share crosses 50%, it'll be hard for others to stop them.

No that's not a "bit" that's "way too" far-fetched IMHO. Remember you said mobile devices. If you would have limited it to high end smartphones it's easier to swallow than that one. I haven't looked into any statistics regarding that matter but I find it very hard to believe that Apple's mobile sales volumes are comparable to NOKIA for example.

With the largest emphasis on and the tightest integration of 3D/multimedia hardware to the software (native acceleration from the ground up), Apple is still the only phone maker that really understands how to push a mobile platform, and they'll continue to dominate until someone else fully "gets it".

I don't expect other vendors not to react down the line and that's exactly the point where I consider rpg's scenario over the top. I have no doubt that competition will continuously heat up in general and stakes in the embedded market never have been higher than in recent times. Competition and monopolies don't exactly fit in the same sentence IMO.

MS is making moves with the tablets.

You'll see win mobile 7 tablets by the fall when the os is done. I'm also of the belief that a moble xbox 360 is in the cards for next e3 ( i think they have thier hands full with win mo 7 this year)

What's a "mobile Xbox360" exactly or better what is there integrated in a multitude of current devices that isn't a mobile XBox360 already?

 

[rpg.314]

No that's not a "bit" that's "way too" far-fetched IMHO. Remember you said mobile devices. If you would have limited it to high end smartphones it's easier to swallow than that one. I haven't looked into any statistics regarding that matter but I find it very hard to believe that Apple's mobile sales volumes are comparable to NOKIA for example.

Yes, I meant smartphones there. But I feel over time normal mobiles will convert into smartphones.

I don't expect other vendors not to react down the line and that's exactly the point where I consider rpg's scenario over the top. I have no doubt that competition will continuously heat up in general and stakes in the embedded market never have been higher than in recent times. Competition and monopolies don't exactly fit in the same sentence IMO.

Well, the iPod vs competitors sage doesn't hold much promise there. It's not like others didn't try to compete either. May be this time the competition is wiser.

 

[Ailuros]

Yes, I meant smartphones there. But I feel over time normal mobiles will convert into smartphones.

Irrelevant of hw capabilities there will always be a distinction even in the future between low end and high end products. Where's the highest sales volume exactly and where are Apple's low end mobile phones to justify your chain of reasoning? In essence it could mean two things: as much as all other vendors might want to buckle up for high end devices to not lose any market share there against Apple, just as much Apple will have to consider to have a wider variety of products for different price points so that we can even think of Apple's sales volumes exploding in any distant future.

Well, the iPod vs competitors sage doesn't hold much promise there. It's not like others didn't try to compete either. May be this time the competition is wiser.

You seem to forget that mobile or if you prefer embedded is describing a very wide market and isn't necessarily limited to just smartphones or PMPs.

 

[silent_guy]

MS is making moves with the tablets.

Like this beauty from HP?

 

[Ailuros]

I think in the future the 3GS and iPod touch 3rd gen 3D performance will be known as an anomaly. There are clear indications that the next gen iPhone/iPod touch will get a higher resolution display. Combined with a (slower) version of the A4 this should normalize the 3D performance across all iPhone OS devices within an generation (e.g. 800MHz A4 with a 960x640 display on the iPhone/iPod touch vs. 1GHz A4 with 1024x768 on the iPad).

Uhmm where's the hypothetical "anomaly" in terms of 3D performance exactly? Albeit not sure I'd place the SGX535 frequency in the iPhone3GS at 150MHz and in the iPad at 250MHz.

With your line of reasoning and assuming that the next iPhone will be based on a lower clocked A4 SoC I wouldn't expect only a CPU frequency but also a GPU frequency reduction compared to the iPad.

 

[rpg.314]

Irrelevant of hw capabilities there will always be a distinction even in the future between low end and high end products. Where's the highest sales volume exactly and where are Apple's low end mobile phones to justify your chain of reasoning? In essence it could mean two things: as much as all other vendors might want to buckle up for high end devices to not lose any market share there against Apple, just as much Apple will have to consider to have a wider variety of products for different price points so that we can even think of Apple's sales volumes exploding in any distant future.



You seem to forget that mobile or if you prefer embedded is describing a very wide market and isn't necessarily limited to just smartphones or PMPs.

Let me rephrase/correct/edit. In the markets Apple has decided to compete, it has so far thrashed all others put together. In the >$1000 desktop/laptop market too, I seem to recall that Apple has >~50% revenue share. On the basis of track record, I doubt Apple's competition is any good. The only solace is that Apple will prolly not compete in the low margin category, leaving a window for the competition there.

 

[Pressure]

Albeit not sure I'd place the SGX535 frequency in the iPhone3GS at 150MHz and in the iPad at 250MHz.

I think that the 65nm SGX535 in the iPhone 3GS is clocked at 200Mhz.

 

[Mike11]

Assuming the iPhone 4th-gen also uses an A4, how much more empty (or totally battery dominated) would the iPad have looked on the inside if had used the 4th-gens logic board? That board is really super small...

http://cache-01.gawkerassets.com/assets/images/4/2010/04/open19_01.jpg
Gallery: http://gizmodo.com/5520877/open-gal//gallery/1

Uhmm where's the hypothetical "anomaly" in terms of 3D performance exactly?

Not in all performance aspects of course. I was mainly referring to this post from warmi regarding fillrate:

Just did some basic GLES fillrate tests and holy crap ..... the iPad is damn slow.

My custom fillrate demo can display about 400 sprites at 30 fps on the older iPhones and it goes up to 1750 on the 3gs (both of them obviously running at 320x480).

On the iPad , running at 1024x768 with sprites scaled up , it cannot pull more than 400 while maintaining 30 fps, which essentially means at that resolution it performs at about the same level as the original iPhone.

Given that , you just won't be able to port graphically intensive 3gs apps to 1024x768 and expect them to run at the same framerate.

So in regards to fillrate running at native resolution: iPhone = iPhone 3G = iPad = iPhone 4th-gen
Totally simplified of course (and assuming the iPhone 4th-gen uses an (slightly slower) A4 and has a 960x640 resolution).

 

[Pressure]

I think for the iPhone internals to be that small Apple must surely use a SoC-based approach.

I doubt the A4 in the iPad is going to find its way into the next generation iPhone unless it already have an integrated cellular modem. That or it may be a derivative of the iPad A4 (a custom silicon).