Analyst: Wii Shortages until 2009; Mass market not ready for High-def gaming

[Fu3lFr3nzy]

I highly doubt the Wii would be encoutering shortages 2 years from now, because by the end of 2007, if Wii is still a hard to find item on retail, then Nintendo should get the hint that maybe theyre doing something wrong in manufacturing.

Seriously, if youre earning billions of dollars/yen, then cant you spare a couple mill to have extra factories crank out more systems if the demand is THAT high? Eh, well see how it plays out I guess.

iirc(im sure you guys know more about this so please correct me so :smile: ), but even the PS2 didnt run into such long shortages with the exception of the post launch craze. Or is it because PS2 was manufactured in higher numbers per month than the Wii is in its current state?

/IMO.

 

[Acert93]

So I would need a console why exactly? To put it beside my in the meantime way superior PC for better heating?

You would be mistaken if you thought the majority of consumer PCs were "way superior" to a PS3 or Xbox 360 in regards to performance, cost, or even as a general gaming device.

Hmm. Looks like I was mistaken. This survey just came out a couple of weeks ago.

http://www.tvweek.com/page.cms?pageId=680

The last surveys I saw in 2006 were in the 10% range. Must've been a gangbusters christmas. I stand corrected.
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Been like this for a while actually. To ring my own bell

http://forum.beyond3d.com/showthread.php?t=18468

In-Stat reports that about 10 million homes around the world already are watching HDTV programming on a high-definition TV set. By the end of 2005, the worldwide total of HDTV households is will be 15.5 million, the market research firm estimates. The technology is expected to post strong growth over the next five years reaching about 52 million households in 2009.

It did hit the 15M mark in 2005, so by the time the 360 launched (end 2005) HDTV market penetration was at 15%. A jump from 15.5M in 2005 to 28M in 2006 doesn't appear unbelievable consider the widespread reports of how well HD sets sold as well as how Walmart put a big hurt on companies like CC by pushing a low price on Panasonic HD sets. Walmart has even ordered millions of HD DVD units for this year.

For the typically early adopter there is a significant overlap with adoption of high end equipment and high end gaming. And by the time the early adopters have settle fully in the market is looking at being ~ 50% HD "ready" (hey, the manufacturers abuse the words, so why cannot I?).

Writing off HD for this generation seems to be a little rash. But my arguement on this has always been that online is where it is at this generation. The market was already at 40M+ for broadband in the US before the 360 launched (if my memory is right) and most nations are in even better shape. To even my surprise MS has been able to keep its Live "users" above 50% (6M out of 10M). Of course a console doesn't need to cater to every trend as the Wii is demonstrating. You can connect with games in many different ways. I don't think any of the 3 companies have validated their approach as the "absolute" right approach in regards to consumer desire or publisher needs. But that is where choice and variety comes in, so everyone potentially wins

 

[function]

So I would need a console why exactly? To put it beside my in the meantime way superior PC for better heating?

Right, because gaming is all about playing on the most advanced hardware you can. After all, people's gaming satisfaction doesn't come from the game playing expereience itself, but the number of transistors being used to run the game.

I for one can't enjoy playing on Wii or 360 games if there's a more powerful PC in close proximity to the machine I'm playing on!

 

[tongue_of_colicab]

You my friend... Have had a VERY cushy life!!

When I grew up (in my working class neighbourhood) you'd be lucky to find someone you knew with a TV over 30" in the living room and when you did the parents of the household forbid us playing games on it... We spent most of our time relegated to squash ourselves around a 15" TV set trying to play 4- player split-screen diddy Kong racing (not easy)..

Im from a workingclass family too (and still am since im a student). We never had a 30'' tv but we always had a normal sized SDtv. I believe its something like 63cm. And in my bedroom I have a 21'' tv. I never seen anyone with a 17 or 19'' tv except from some old tv's in the bedroom but not the one the console was hooked up to. I still play Wii in the livingroom. And yes that sometimes is a bitch because my parents want to watch tv after dinner but the rest of the day my brothers and I can play when we want.

I simply don't agree. The Wii and 360/PS3 do seem to be attracting different markets, with some obvious overlap. Even if Wii has the most consoles sold in 3 years, you won't see publishers giving the cold shoulder to the HD side in favor of Wii exclusives. The content will definitely be there for the 360/PS3. And with good content, I still propose that the 360/PS3 will have much more sales stamina than the Wii.

I agree with you. But what I ment is that if Wii has by far the largest marketshare in 3 years or so you wont suddenly see a 180degree shift in dev support just because HDtv's are in more homes by that time.

No, the Wii isn't a graphics only machine. It has a unique gameplay, is at home on SDTV's, and has a significantly lower entry price than the other two. People who want one are buying one NOW. It will continue to sell, especially as a system for Junior down the road, but not in the numbers IMO that we will see for PS3/360. Those two will have a larger market three years out because of people who (1) held off until the price dropped and (2) held off until they purchase an HDTV or weren't interested until they purchased an HDTV.

Damn why do people always have to connect wii to juniors aka kids? its mostly older people buying one, just as with GC. Anyway I agree with you on #1. I for one havnt bought a ps3 yet because I dont want to pay 600 euro for it. However, the price will drop and for sure that will attract more customers but that doesnt neseceraily means it will suddenly generatie hugh sales. Remember GC? that was always dirt cheap but it didnt help alot. Also Who says Wii sales cant increase? nintendo is still having more demand than they can build Wii's and who knows in the future there might actually be more people interrested in buying a Wii than a ps3? I disagree with #2 though. I dont think alot of people interrested in playing games the games that are out on ps3 will wait untill they have a HDTv.

I'm not saying we will see Wii sales stop in three years and PS3/360 skyrocket, just that over the next few years the growth curves will look distinctly different, with HD console sales three years from now significantly outpacing Wii sales, and that gap only continuing to widen through the rest of their lifespan (unless N has a much, much short life cycle planned this time).

Like I said above I dont completely agree with this. The fact is that Nintendo doesnt sell Wii as a machine that will give you kick ass gfx. So weater you play on a SD or HDtv doesnt really matter as you dont buy it with good gfx in mind anyway. Besides that I think gfx arnt nearly as big as a factor in terms of sales as some people think. Price, fun, quality games, amount of games, system populairity are just some of the factors I think are way above gfx when your average Joe goes to walmart to buy a console.

 

[PatrickL]

It did hit the 15M mark in 2005, so by the time the 360 launched (end 2005) HDTV market penetration was at 15%. A jump from 15.5M in 2005 to 28M in 2006 doesn't appear unbelievable consider the widespread reports of how well HD sets sold as well as how Walmart put a big hurt on companies like CC by pushing a low price on Panasonic HD sets. Walmart has even ordered millions of HD DVD units for this year.

For the typically early adopter there is a significant overlap with adoption of high end equipment and high end gaming. And by the time the early adopters have settle fully in the market is looking at being ~ 50% HD "ready" (hey, the manufacturers abuse the words, so why cannot I?).

Writing off HD for this generation seems to be a little rash. But my arguement on this has always been that online is where it is at this generation. The market was already at 40M+ for broadband in the US before the 360 launched (if my memory is right) and most nations are in even better shape. To even my surprise MS has been able to keep its Live "users" above 50% (6M out of 10M). Of course a console doesn't need to cater to every trend as the Wii is demonstrating. You can connect with games in many different ways. I don't think any of the 3 companies have validated their approach as the "absolute" right approach in regards to consumer desire or publisher needs. But that is where choice and variety comes in, so everyone potentially wins

Did you reat that http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=152650 on neogaf ?

Just quoting the first post:

Over 90% of those with PS3's+HDTVs are not getting HD signals. #1
Nothing on the national level, and for that I apologize, however the Las Vegas Review Journal ran a little survey tidbit in which they asked consumers (at Wal-Mart, Best Buy, and EB games) if they had a PS3 and an HDTV. If the response was yes, they were asked what resolution and cables they were running.

Over 90% gave a response which resulted in a scenario where the signal displayed was no higher than 480p, most of which said "I just used the cables Sony packaged in." For those who were aware of HD cables failed to change the systems display settings to 720p / 1080i/p.

I thought this was kind of interesting, if Sony isn't going to package in the appropiate cables, they should really make it idiot - proof (basically, shove onscreen messages telling people HD cables are needed for HD signals) during installation, or just include the appropiate accessories out of the box.

While HD is certainly the future, it is not that obvious for average joe. People start to get a lot of HD ready not because they want it ou like it yet but mainly because more than 80 % of the TV yu can find or sale are like that. When the main Tv channels will start HD broadcast, things will change, and prolly fast.

 

[Bigus Dickus]

But what I ment is that if Wii has by far the largest marketshare in 3 years or so you wont suddenly see a 180degree shift in dev support just because HDtv's are in more homes by that time.

And of coure I was explicit that I wasn't talking about an abrupt shift, but rather a gradual change in trends that will be apparent by the time a couple of years have passed.

Damn why do people always have to connect wii to juniors aka kids? its mostly older people buying one, just as with GC.

Because it was intimately connected to my point. Yes, mostly adults are getting them now, and because the price is relatively low and there is no incentive to wait until you have an HDTV the adults who want one are buying one NOW. So that market will not get the big boost from price cuts like the PS3/360 will. Down the road, there will be fewer adults who were waiting for the Wii to become cheap, and thus the parents looking for a cheap console for junior's first (who is young, and doesn't care about what the graphics look like anyway) will be a more significant segment of N's sales than will likely be for MS and Sony.

Anyway I agree with you on #1. I for one havnt bought a ps3 yet because I dont want to pay 600 euro for it.

Yet you have a Wii. Bingo.

However, the price will drop and for sure that will attract more customers but that doesnt neseceraily means it will suddenly generatie hugh sales.

Not sudden huge sales, just more stamina than will be the case for the Wii. I thought I was pretty clear about that.

I disagree with #2 though. I dont think alot of people interrested in playing games the games that are out on ps3 will wait untill they have a HDTv.

Maybe not a lot, but without question more than is the case for the Wii. Also, "#2" included a few people who weren't interested in consoles previously and get their first HDTV, start looking for pretty HD content to enjoy on in, and learn that the 360 and PS3 might offer something they never considered. There's at least a few of those sales that again won't happen with the Wii. The cumulative effect is that the time/sales curves from this date going forward will look different for the Wii and the other two. You can't extrapolate current sales out 6 or 7 years because substantially different market forces are going to be operating on the Wi vs. the other two. And those differences will, over time, vindicate my assertion that Wii is a console designed for a shorter lifespan.

 

[Arwin]

It's funny to see this discussion now, as I've been cleaning up my old house, preparing for the sale, and I discovered I had kept all my receipts of major purchases. It included an almost completely disintegrated one for my first Playstation 2. Now I see I actually spent more money than I remembered! The PS2 just by itself cost 1149 guilders, which, corrected for inflation, comes to more than the 599 I paid now (around 602). And then you still had to buy the memory card, at least. My total bill back then ran up to 1649 (apparently I bought two games and an extra controller as well) - I can't believe it, as that was a lot of money for me then.

I also found my bill for my second PS2, in 2003, for 199,99 euro.

 

[tongue_of_colicab]

Because it was intimately connected to my point. Yes, mostly adults are getting them now, and because the price is relatively low and there is no incentive to wait until you have an HDTV the adults who want one are buying one NOW. So that market will not get the big boost from price cuts like the PS3/360 will. Down the road, there will be fewer adults who were waiting for the Wii to become cheap, and thus the parents looking for a cheap console for junior's first (who is young, and doesn't care about what the graphics look like anyway) will be a more significant segment of N's sales than will likely be for MS and Sony.

Though I understand your point I dont agree with it. First off you actually have to find a Wii for sale Your right that a pricecut on ps3/x360 will have alot bigger impact than a pricecut on Wii but I fail to see how that suddenly means adults will chose ps3/x360 over Wii. I dont think adults will suddenly drop wii because ps3 became affordable. As for the kids they even know all the hot brands in gradeschool these days so unless junior is a 5 year old i'm pretty sure junior will ask for the hot console not to mention that parents usually dont know anything about consoles and just buy the one they hear the most about.

Yet you have a Wii. Bingo.

I have. But not only because it was cheap. Though that defenitly made me decide to buy one at launch.

Not sudden huge sales, just more stamina than will be the case for the Wii. I thought I was pretty clear about that.

Sorry, i must have misunderstood. I dont see why Wii cant have that stamina. Mind you, all im posting is based on if Wii keeps on steamrolling. But in the end pricing isnt the most important thing. Once all 3 hit massmarket price its populairity and games that will keep a console going. Same as ps2, even though it always had a relative high price it kept going because of the name and the games.

Also, "#2" included a few people who weren't interested in consoles previously and get their first HDTV, start looking for pretty HD content to enjoy on in, and learn that the 360 and PS3 might offer something they never considered.

You really think so? I dont think someone who didnt care about gaming will suddenly start buying a console + games because he has a HDtv. Afterall, the games are still exactly the same as the past decade only better looking. So why would he suddenly become a gamer if he never cared about games before? because of HD? gfx arnt what pull people into gaming.

You can't extrapolate current sales out 6 or 7 years because substantially different market forces are going to be operating on the Wi vs. the other two. And those differences will, over time, vindicate my assertion that Wii is a console designed for a shorter lifespan.

Your right that I or anyone else knows what will happen in 6 years from now. And if you are to take the market as it is now you might even be right (though nintendo said Wii is to last around 5 years for what its worth) but now what if nintendo indeed succeeds to (partialy) get all those ''non gamers'' into the Wii? Wii sales will be unstoppable and nintendo would be crazy to end wii after something like 3 years.

 

[Bigus Dickus]

First off you actually have to find a Wii for sale

I was in the Target down the road today and they had one. Does that count? Are they really that hard to find? I must be one lucky SOB!

Your right that a pricecut on ps3/x360 will have alot bigger impact than a pricecut on Wii but I fail to see how that SUDDENLY means adults will chose ps3/x360 over Wii. I dont think adults will SUDDENLY drop wii because ps3 became affordable.

Erm, I'm pretty sure I've said several times now that I'm not talking about anything SUDDEN! So stop throwing out that strawman.

As for the kids they even know all the hot brands in gradeschool these days so unless junior is a 5 year old i'm pretty sure junior will ask for the hot console not to mention that parents usually dont know anything about consoles and just buy the one they hear the most about.

Yup, that's exactly what I'm talking about. Parents who know nothing about gaming and have a 5~6 year old for whom they want to get a "first game" will look at the three options, see one with a slightly lower pricetag and cute looking game cases, and bingo... there is a sale for N. I really don't think that is significant, and it seems you agree.

Children who talk to each other at school and know better will be at least as likely to ask for a 360 or PS3.

I have. But not only because it was cheap. Though that defenitly made me decide to buy one at launch.

My point still stands, and you are the perfect example. You want both a Wii and 360/PS3 (I guess only one). You bought the Wii now, and will purchase the other later. N gets sales now, and MS/Sony will get a sale down the road. There are a lot more people like you than there are hardcore gamers that boned up for the 360/PS3 and will pick up a Wii later. There are a significant number no doubt, but not as many as are like you. Thus, MS/Sony have a larger potential market going forward, at least in that gamer segment.

Sorry, i must have misunderstood. I dont see why Wii cant have that stamina. Mind you, all im posting is based on if Wii keeps on steamrolling.

Exactly. I've explained ad nauseum why Wii is steamrolling right now, and why you can't extrapolate that past just a couple of years at best. It is less expensive, not as many people care about HD right now, and it has a novel controller that has enticed a significant non traditional gamer population to try it out. None of those things, IMO, bode well for stamina.

N has set up this situation to make a strong initial showing by sacrificing stamina. We'll see how it plays out, but you have my prediction.

You really think so? I dont think someone who didnt care about gaming will suddenly start buying a console + games because he has a HDtv.

Oh, I don't think it will be many, but there will be at least a few. Point is that this situation cannot happen with the Wii ever. And IMO I think the PS3 has a bit of an advantage here, for the short term, as it gives new HDTV buyers a reason to buy a game console instead of a HD player.

but now what if nintendo indeed succeeds to (partialy) get all those ''non gamers'' into the Wii? Wii sales will be unstoppable and nintendo would be crazy to end wii after something like 3 years.

That's possible, but of course my opinion is that this "untapped" market will be exhausted within the first two years of the console's life.

 

[Nesh]

Btw just in case someone is interested in my country there are tons of Wii's left unsold eveywhere.

 

[PatrickL]

And your country is ?

 

[tongue_of_colicab]

I was in the Target down the road today and they had one. Does that count? Are they really that hard to find? I must be one lucky SOB!

I guess atleast here in Holland you'll only be able to find display boxes and you need to sign up if you want one.

Erm, I'm pretty sure I've said several times now that I'm not talking about anything SUDDEN! So stop throwing out that strawman.

Sorry. I know your not talking about suddenly but its my half assed way of writing english that I want to put suddenly in everywhere. Please dont mind it, I know what you mean and I didnt mean suddenly... I just wrote it :X

MS/Sony have a larger potential market going forward, at least in that gamer segment.

I agree. Though I could see that change depending on what games Wii will get. I'm mostly interrested in a few ps3 games because as it seems I wont get anything similair on Wii (''realistic'' race games for example) I guess that if Wii would get more games like that I can see myself and others sticking with a Wii instead of getting a combo. Though I dont see that happening to fast. But mass market will probably just buy 1 console, even the casuals. Ps3 might sell better when cheaper, but if the massmarket already decided that wii is the console to have by then pricing will become less important.

Exactly. I've explained ad nauseum why Wii is steamrolling right now, and why you can't extrapolate that past just a couple of years at best. It is less expensive, not as many people care about HD right now, and it has a novel controller that has enticed a significant non traditional gamer population to try it out. None of those things, IMO, bode well for stamina.

Somewhat agree. In the end it will be the games that will carry the console sales.

N has set up this situation to make a strong initial showing by sacrificing stamina. We'll see how it plays out, but you have my prediction.

I dont think they neceseraily sacrificed stamina. They basically made the gamble that it wont be gfx that will carry (their) console. And I think that gamble can play out in their favour as long as they will keep getting out plenty of good games. As ps3, and in a lesser extent x360 sales show it is price and games that will pull in buyers, not gfx.

 

[oli2]

Would not there be the fact that nobody expected (not to mention "predicted") that sales situation to be like it is now a year ago, i would tend to agree what you foresee for 2 years, Bigus.
The fact i really have no clue what the situation will be in 2 years for Wii and PS3 ...
The only find i take for sure is that Xbox360 's sales will only be seen as "average" ... (but again i could be proven wrong)
On PS3, you may be right but ATM it looks like "protected PR mode" ("You will see in 2 years"), as for Wii because you see strong sales until that period.
Once again, i should say that this christmas will probably settle the fate of this gen.

 

[Nesh]

And your country is ?

Greece

 

[Bigus Dickus]

Sorry. I know your not talking about suddenly but its my half assed way of writing english that I want to put suddenly in everywhere. Please dont mind it, I know what you mean and I didnt mean suddenly... I just wrote it :X

Ah, well that's understandable. If I tried to write in Dutch it would be as horrible as me trying to write in... well, pretty much any language!

I dont think they neceseraily sacrificed stamina. They basically made the gamble that it wont be gfx that will carry (their) console.

That's true. No company would intentionally design a product with an unecessarily short life span. N certainly felt that the unique control would provide them with a profitable console. But it is possible that they have long suspected that sales will fall faster over time than the 360/PS3 and are comfortable with that for a console that has hardware profitability from day one (something MS and Sony can only dream about).

Wii could end up on a trajectory just as I have predicted, and still be a very profitable and successful product for N, especially after the market penetration of the GC.

 

[Natoma]

The next step for Nintendo imo is to significantly increase the power (I'm thinking 360/PS3 level for their next console wile MS and Sony continue along the uber graphics route for 720/PS4) and keep the control paradigm. Wii-HD basically.

Look for that in 2010-2011 imo.

 

[Bigus Dickus]

Look for that in 2010-2011 imo.

Unless it simply rendered at a higher resolution, and existing Wii's could continue to play new releases (for "Wii HD") at SD resolutions, I think N would be shooting themselves in the foot with a 3 years product cycle. Even four seems awfully short.

Then again, I've argued here that the Wii is only good for a 3, maybe 4 years life span. So I'm not sure what else N could do.

 

[Natoma]

Unless it simply rendered at a higher resolution, and existing Wii's could continue to play new releases (for "Wii HD") at SD resolutions, I think N would be shooting themselves in the foot with a 3 years product cycle. Even four seems awfully short.

Then again, I've argued here that the Wii is only good for a 3, maybe 4 years life span. So I'm not sure what else N could do.

Well, the Wii came out in 2006. So Christmas 2010 would be 4 years; 2011 would be 5. That said, if Wii-HD was fully backward compatible with the Wii and GC, it probably wouldn't be much of an issue.

I think Nintendo will be very tempted to stay 1 gen behind Sony and MS in the graphics race. It'll be cost effective not only for them, but for developers and consumers as well.

$600 technology today is $150 technology 4-5 years from now.

 

[Bigus Dickus]

Well, the Wii came out in 2006.

Ah, right. I keep thinking it was launched early this year.

 

[tongue_of_colicab]

The next step for Nintendo imo is to significantly increase the power (I'm thinking 360/PS3 level for their next console wile MS and Sony continue along the uber graphics route for 720/PS4) and keep the control paradigm. Wii-HD basically.

Look for that in 2010-2011 imo.

As far as power goes, wont there be a point at wich it wont be usefull to try and stick uberhardware in your console? Both HW and SW will cost more and more to produce while what will end up on your screen will have less and less differance with last gen.