Alternative distribution to optical disks : SSD, cards, and download*

AzBat said:
Read again. I said you MAY NOT NEED lots of storage. They can do both next gen like they have done already. One doesn't preclude the other. Your original comment was that you will need more & more bigger hard drives to store all your games & media. My comment was that MAY NOT be necessary. Microsoft can go with cloud storage & release a system that doesn't need or require a big hard drive. That's all provided they do not require a hard drive on every unit like they did this gen. So yes, they will most likely have a disc & hard drive, but I don't think they will be required. So I also expect them to release a low cost SKU sometime during the next-gen that does not have a disc and/or hard drive. Is that clear now?

BTW, you asked for a real case. I gave you one with the smartphone & tablet. It's not my fault it's not something you care for. You're not even the market they'll be targeting for anyway.

Tommy McClain

May not need and could. So basically you are saying everything is possible, fine with me. Pretty hard to disagree with that one.
 
So I also expect them to release a low cost SKU sometime during the next-gen that does not have a disc and/or hard drive.
I want to see a reaction from developers being told that BOTH the hard drive and the optical drive won't be present later on. If the optical drive is optional, it's effectively useless as a distribution media. Sure they can put the large HDD optional like they did with the Arcade SKU, but they still had the optical drive to rely on. The reverse might also work for digital distribution only.

But how does cloud storage makes it possible to remove both?

What would be the bandwidth/latency necessary to have an equal or better experience/performance than a bluray drive?

Would it have to be a service that you pay as long as you want to play the games you purchased? It'd be a monthly fee and gigantic infrastructure server-side, still losing all the population without an uber connection. All this compromise for saving a few bucks on the drive? How is that even remotely a good market strategy?
 
Well, I used to be able to play online games (on fibre optic broadband) with a ping of around 15 ms, so assuming network conditions allowed you could possibly sell a HDD less, optical drive less console in some areas and get better than On-Live results through local processing and remote storage. But it would have to supplement existing setups, and it would probably hammer your ISP bandwidth cap so you'd need some kind of console vendor / ISP deal to be worked out before it was released.

On the pessimist side, my broadband has gradually slowed over the last two years and I'm now down to something like 2mbit. So I sure as hell won't be getting such a console any time soon ... :???:
 
The optical drive in consoles has outlived its usefulness.

The console world has changed since the optical drive took root as the main method for content delivery. They've evolved to be more than simple games machines as they've become fully internet connected multimedia devices in their own right and games have moved beyond physical distribution. The optical drive is now past its use by date and any console which comes equipped with one is making a large sacrifice for the sake of the past at the expense of the present and especially future.

I've seen press releases where 50% or more of the Xbox 360's use is for internet based apps and multimedia and the quality and quantity of downloadable games has increased by a huge degree over the course of the generation. The Xbox 360 started this generation as a console where 90%+ of the use was with the optical drive in play but now it looks like it is less than 50% of the time and falling. As the total time spent using the optical drive falls the justification for the $50 (drive + margins) increase in retail cost as well as noise and packaging constraints fall. In a $200 console that means that 1/4 of the cost is just the optical drive componentry which gets expensive especially as the console gets cheaper.

The games market has changed since the first widespread introduction of games on CD with the PS1. At that time the CD allowed for publishers to take risks they couldn't dream of with cartridges and ramp production quickly if they had an unexpected hit whilst not taking too much of a financial challenge if they overstepped. Now the retail games industry has become dominated by fewer big predictable games and the smaller projects and less sure investments are increasingly becoming download only titles. Furthermore a lot of the revenue for games now comes afterwards from DLC and publishers have started to feel the pinch from the used game market especially with single player games where their sales and front loaded but fall off a cliff after the initial surge.

From the perspective of those making the games themselves optical drives no longer represent the no-brainer choice. If a game is going to be viable on digital distribution platforms then it cannot simply use the full space of a Blu Ray disc with no consequence. Furthermore the specifications of the optical drive dictate game design because it is the lowest common denominator with huge latencies and slow (20-30MB/S) access speeds compared to the potential for >100MB/S from HDD's with 1/10th the latency and >50MB/S from solid state flash memory with effectively 0 latency. The advantages the optical disc once had are no longer nearly as important and even backwards compatibility doesn't look like a likely future for the Xbox Next and PS4.

Publishers are probably much more willing to consider the possibility of other forms of distribution. For those who don't have a fast internet connection they can use cartridges which have DRM which allows a transfer of the license to the game and all DLC bought for say $10 (7/3 split) because it means that the used game market can become a source of revenue instead of frustration. The consoles today are already designed with removeable HDD's so taking it in and loading games on a kiosk are another possibility. The retailers are likely wising up to the fact that the games market has changed and they would likely be better off having high throughput low space kiosks and game card sections than huge areas devoted to games. We already see iTunes, League of Legend, Xbox Live etc cards displayed prominently and retailers are likely more successful now with these than they ever were with games. With retailers maximising the revenue/profit per square foot is the best strategy so I can see them embracing this model wholeheartedly as long as appropriate considerations are made for their needs.
 
It will need to be damn close to 100% before they would be willing to completely forgo physical media distribution. Presence in brick and mortar stores brings a lot of benefits. A digital only model would probably add $50 to the price of every console in retail margins, this would be required to keep that B & M presence.

I'm no fan of optical media, but physical media will be a requirement for the foreseeable future. Digital only has too many issues (massive built in storage requirements, high speed Internet required, download caps).
 
I think you missed the thread earlier this year where we discussed this, maybe you should pop back the thread and I'll jump in...
http://forum.beyond3d.com/showthread.php?t=48244

That is in the technology forum but I felt a business sided discussion would be better. Also the bar is a little lower so there is more scope for opinions rather than dealing more strictly with facts.

It will need to be damn close to 100% before they would be willing to completely forgo physical media distribution. Presence in brick and mortar stores brings a lot of benefits. A digital only model would probably add $50 to the price of every console in retail margins, this would be required to keep that B & M presence.

Retailers wouldn't miss out on sales and revenue and they may even reap higher rewards from this model. Cards for game money and things like Xbox Live/iTunes cards are highly profitable for retailers, cartridges would be even more compact that optical media and there would be the option to pay for the game at retail and have it download immediately. They would get a lot of revenue per square meter which is still important. If the trend is towards 80-90% of console use being internet based then retailers would balk anyway if what you say is true regardless and the extra cost of the optical drive would be an even greater burden with extra retail margins on top.

I'm no fan of optical media, but physical media will be a requirement for the foreseeable future. Digital only has too many issues (massive built in storage requirements, high speed Internet required, download caps).

You can get 320GB HDDs for under $40 at Newegg and 500GB for $60 so I don't think that space will be a problem for a console with a spinning HDD. If you're going to optimise for downloading you're not going to be starting with the assumption of 20GB per game and move up from there and even then HDD space is realistic from a business perspective. You can make the HDD removeable and give people the option of taking it to the store to put games directly onto it if downloading isn't desireable and you don't want to pay a premium for the game.
 
Retailers wouldn't miss out on sales and revenue and they may even reap higher rewards from this model. Cards for game money and things like Xbox Live/iTunes cards are highly profitable for retailers, cartridges would be even more compact that optical media and there would be the option to pay for the game at retail and have it download immediately. They would get a lot of revenue per square meter which is still important. If the trend is towards 80-90% of console use being internet based then retailers would balk anyway if what you say is true regardless and the extra cost of the optical drive would be an even greater burden with extra retail margins on top.

No matter how profitable an individual point card sale might be fore a store, it's a losing battle when they are competing with not having to leave the house to buy a game. Cartridges are simply untenable, and any download only console would have to include a pretty huge margin for stores to even both carrying them. An optical drive allows the platform holders to string the GameStops of the world along for another 6-7 years, at which point the game will be over as gaming will probably have transitioned almost completely to streaming only via existing consoles and low cost "Smart" devices.
 
No matter how profitable an individual point card sale might be fore a store, it's a losing battle when they are competing with not having to leave the house to buy a game. Cartridges are simply untenable, and any download only console would have to include a pretty huge margin for stores to even both carrying them. An optical drive allows the platform holders to string the GameStops of the world along for another 6-7 years, at which point the game will be over as gaming will probably have transitioned almost completely to streaming only via existing consoles and low cost "Smart" devices.

So the reason you think consoles ought to have optical drives is to string along retail partners for a few more years whilst you're transitioning towards 100% digital distribution? Surely you must think that retailers would have more brains than that if they see the way the wind is blowing and the wind is blowing pretty obviously then they will react the same whether the console has an optical drive or not but with the former situation you'll be paying the same legacy costs as well as the increased margins demanded.

A retailer who can make money on 0 square meters of retail space is a happy retailer. Game cards themselves are great because you can pack in thousands in the space where you can put only a few dozen games, they can't be stolen because they need to be activated at the checkout and you can have a lot of throughput with just a tiny space. A supermarket would just love to tack on an extra $12 profit to your groceries when you take the Halo 5 game card up to the counter with your shopping. I just don't see where retailers would hate making so much money on so little space? If carrying a high throughput item like a console is the price to pay even with such low margins then I'm sure they can make it worthwhile.
 
Retail is advertising you don't achieve the same level of sales without shelf presence and you still have the problem of bandwidth and download caps. I know ppl who have 10GB caps which would limit them to one game a month exclusive of their other usage.

It's not workable unless you get the ISPs on board and that would be a complicated negotiation.

<edit> And you're probably looking at a terabyte or more drive required for next gen. 320GB wouldn't hold near the games I own this gen, I doubt next gen games are going to be smaller.
 
It's not workable unless you get the ISPs on board and that would be a complicated negotiation.


Most isp's in Australia have steam as uncounted data towards there cap. If ISP's see it as an advantage and MS/Sony offer cost effective mechanisms to ISP's ( deployable proxys, local peering etc) like steam does then it will work fine.
 
I would guess Sony is watching very closely the Vita game sales, because they gave everyone the choice (and I suppose it'll happen with the PS4 too, all games available equally retail or download) all Vita retail are available in download with a lower price than retail. I doubt they'll ever make these numbers public, but I'd love to see an estimate of that. I think it's a real fair test market for the issue, and they'll decided what they do next-gen based on that ratio.

Kotaku had a poll earlier this year:
http://ca.kotaku.com/5885291/how-will-you-buy-your-vita-games-retail-or-download
80% said a mix of both, or retail only.
Only 20% said download only.

That's a big red flag right there.
 
Most isp's in Australia have steam as uncounted data towards there cap. If ISP's see it as an advantage and MS/Sony offer cost effective mechanisms to ISP's ( deployable proxys, local peering etc) like steam does then it will work fine.

ISPs are nowhere near that magnanimous in North America.
 
I think everybody has a very narrow perspective of this issue, based on their situation.

Personally I love having DD releases on the same day as the physical, I cant stand having discs. I have not bought a disc based game since ages, heck I do not remember what disc based game I bought last.
I have no ISP cap, I have a VDSL 40/10 link and things are ok. Whats not so good is that my 500GB HDD is full and its a pain to upgrade it. The pain is getting the content over to a new HDD.

So for me at my home, an online device with HDD and no optical works fine.

But I am currently on vacation in the Philippines and the only internet link I got at this house is 3G with caps, if I lived here the no optical version does not work okay. And the latency is a killer 100ms for the first hop. Add the NAT444 on top and we have online multiplayer nightmare especially for twitch games.

Now looking to Norway where I live, its like Denmark, 3G is about everywhere, LTE is in the big cities etc, but still the wireless internet is currently not good enough to support the gaming audience thats already there. And the cost of putting LTE all over the place is extremely high. Plus LTE is a shared medium like Cable, but with lesser bandwith, so you still will run into issues. Think about GTA5 release, if everybody and their dogs would start to download it when its available 5 seconds past midnight. It would kill the network :D

So if the hardware makers want to reach as much as possible of their potential audience, then its clear, you need to support physical distribution and digital distribution for the foreseeable future (long time). But if you only care about making the best experience for a segment of the consumers, you should cater to only their needs. And then the question is just what is a good business to you? Valve makes tons of money of steam (my guess) but their potential market cap is smaller than MS/Sony/Nintendo. Then again for Valve a couple of hundred millions in profit is probably huge compared to what MS/Sony/Nintendo shareholders expect.

As for the retailer, I would not put my money in a video gaming only shop. Still today you can pickup a console and games across a range of stores. Its not like a console will be less wanted in store than blueray/dvd/mp3 players etc. Physical game packages less wanted than CD/DVD/BD discs? Its about pushing product, there are very few specialty boutiques that lives sells through their expertise anymore. That means a supermarket can easily push a console and discs if it comes down to that.
 
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Subscription based DD like PSN+ is gonna take its piece of the cake. But the physical media is gonna stay. It's more or less impossible to imagine that someone would choose to cut of any kind of percentage of sales potential by letting those without proper Internet connection cut loose.

And the free pr provided by brick and. stores is not to be underestimated.

Another issue is the drm, steam is a good example. AFAIK I can't play a game while my son plays another on the same account. I am back to buying physical games for the PC for several reasons but my real life drm challenges is one of the reasons.
 
So the reason you think consoles ought to have optical drives is to string along retail partners for a few more years whilst you're transitioning towards 100% digital distribution? Surely you must think that retailers would have more brains than that if they see the way the wind is blowing and the wind is blowing pretty obviously then they will react the same whether the console has an optical drive or not but with the former situation you'll be paying the same legacy costs as well as the increased margins demanded.

A retailer who can make money on 0 square meters of retail space is a happy retailer. Game cards themselves are great because you can pack in thousands in the space where you can put only a few dozen games, they can't be stolen because they need to be activated at the checkout and you can have a lot of throughput with just a tiny space. A supermarket would just love to tack on an extra $12 profit to your groceries when you take the Halo 5 game card up to the counter with your shopping. I just don't see where retailers would hate making so much money on so little space? If carrying a high throughput item like a console is the price to pay even with such low margins then I'm sure they can make it worthwhile.

Sure, gift cards are a great ancillary business for a grocery store, but they aren't going to sell the console itself. For Gamestop and BestBuy going from making money on 80% of game sales to getting a token 5% via gift cards is a joke. If there are no disks and you can buy every game immediately online, why would people even go to a GameStop? They wouldn't. And GameStop won't bother to even sell systems they stand to make so little money on. And how are platform holders going to sell consoles no one will stock? Exclusively via mail order and/or cable service bundles? That's a pretty scary scenario for them.
 
Why does the console need to be in a store? I have bought my last two tv's online, same with laptops and other computer parts.
My first PS3 was bought online, albeit on ebay from Japan before it was available in Norway.

I do not go into stores anymore to look at things, I do all of that stuff online, the presence in a brick and mortar store is to me, moot. Now I expect that most of the nordics are much the same and most likely anywhere where the economy and the internet is good.

If that turns out to be the case, Gamestop etc can get smaller booths and not keep big physical stores and still earn money. Heck put out vending machines for selling the cards at key points where people travel. But this will only work where the market is ready for it, like for instance the nordics or maybe Japan/Korea, parts of USA etc etc etc.

For Philippines most likely not, but having to units, one with optical drive and one without most likely is no issue, they already have different versions on their devices.

DRM is an issue, but something I have little issues with, since its only me using my stuff, no need to share :)

Because nobody will go cold turkey on the physical distribution, it will happen when the demand for physical distribution does not generate enough revenue, sometime in the future, maybe the consoles for certain geographic areas, like the nordics, will only be digital distribution based. While here in the Philippines they will still support pyshical.
Its just market segmentation anyway, for the life of me, I do not understand the need for games in a gazillion different languages? Especially if everything in game is english, why care about instructions being printed in norwegian?
 
Why does the console need to be in a store? I have bought my last two tv's online, same with laptops and other computer parts.
My first PS3 was bought online, albeit on ebay from Japan before it was available in Norway.

I do not go into stores anymore to look at things, I do all of that stuff online, the presence in a brick and mortar store is to me, moot. Now I expect that most of the nordics are much the same and most likely anywhere where the economy and the internet is good.

If that turns out to be the case, Gamestop etc can get smaller booths and not keep big physical stores and still earn money. Heck put out vending machines for selling the cards at key points where people travel. But this will only work where the market is ready for it, like for instance the nordics or maybe Japan/Korea, parts of USA etc etc etc.

For Philippines most likely not, but having to units, one with optical drive and one without most likely is no issue, they already have different versions on their devices.

DRM is an issue, but something I have little issues with, since its only me using my stuff, no need to share :)

Because nobody will go cold turkey on the physical distribution, it will happen when the demand for physical distribution does not generate enough revenue, sometime in the future, maybe the consoles for certain geographic areas, like the nordics, will only be digital distribution based. While here in the Philippines they will still support pyshical.
Its just market segmentation anyway, for the life of me, I do not understand the need for games in a gazillion different languages? Especially if everything in game is english, why care about instructions being printed in norwegian?

Because we still buy our food etc in brick and motar stores, and they use a lot of money to get us to those stores. And when we are there they want to sell us as much as possible. In denmark there is plenty of big chains that use a healthy amount Advertising and shelf space on games.

DRM is an issue since you are not in control of you games, for example, every game i bought on steam is locked to one person. If i bought them on CD/DVD it would just be a question of whoever had the media that could play it instead of however was logged in. Sony is pushing it with 2 activated PS3's as a max, and as a natural consequence i make a conscious effort to buy physical games that i know will be shared around the house.

And even in the nordic countries you are limiting the potential number of customers if you scrap the physical media, so you would need 2 SKUøs, which is possible as Microsoft have proven. But imagine downloading 20GB games on your mobile connection (yes more and more rely on the mobile 4G/3G for surfing), that would pretty much use up your data for that month :)
 
Because we still buy our food etc in brick and motar stores, and they use a lot of money to get us to those stores. And when we are there they want to sell us as much as possible. In denmark there is plenty of big chains that use a healthy amount Advertising and shelf space on games.

I do not understand you now, I argue that they still want to have consoles and games because we go there. Its an easy sell, the whining kid that wants Kinect NatGeo thingy and Pokemon VIXXIXXCV. Or those that do not have a decent internet connection to go DD or do not want to go DD.

But the me, that wants COD13, I'll just pre-order online and then my console downloads it a day or four before release and on release day I can play. Like AC3 & Sports Champions 2 did on my PS3.

And when its not profitable to supply food stores with discs anymore, they stop to supply, because the shell space for games are quite small, but cards are even smaller. Ok, then sacrifice some space for the console to sell more point cards later on.

DRM is an issue since you are not in control of you games, for example, every game i bought on steam is locked to one person. If i bought them on CD/DVD it would just be a question of whoever had the media that could play it instead of however was logged in. Sony is pushing it with 2 activated PS3's as a max, and as a natural consequence i make a conscious effort to buy physical games that i know will be shared around the house.

Yes, DRM is one of the bad things, but for selfish me, I do not care, because I am not in your situation. But it should/could be as easy as creating 1 master family/household account. And then sub/member accounts. And then everybody in that master group gets to play the game.
If you want to play at the same time, then you can pay 25% or 50% or 75% of the original price to allow it. And you limit it to like 5-6, since most households will not have dad, mom and 3 kids playing COD6 at the same time. Atleast MS/Sony/Nintendo should reward them for buying 5 consoles then :D Its just that we are not there yet, but its not hard to do, but the DD only people are still not a big enough group to listen to I guess.

And even in the nordic countries you are limiting the potential number of customers if you scrap the physical media, so you would need 2 SKUøs, which is possible as Microsoft have proven. But imagine downloading 20GB games on your mobile connection (yes more and more rely on the mobile 4G/3G for surfing), that would pretty much use up your data for that month :)

As of now yes, but we are talking about putting in the groundwork for the future. But it is not about scraping it now, its about being prepared for when its an obsolete distribution form that does not add profit to the bottom line.

Are you saying people are unsubscribing from their DSL, Cable, Fiber connections to have the same internet experience on 3G/4G? Well they are in for an ugly surprise, now my parents that are retired and only does internet banking and read newspapers and other light surfing and alternate living in Norway and the Philippines its fine. Normal household with 2 adults and 1.2 kids, no chance they will get a decent working internet experience. Heck do youtube on 2 terminals and online gaming on one and maybe some streaming music etc that is not a good experience over a 3G link, maybe on a 4G.
Want IPTV into the house, great, my biggest customer are upgrading from 100M to 1G to support 3-4 tv's in one house, not happening with 4G. Put up a new building, your great 4G connection sucks due to messing up line of sight.

But this just comes down to a more segmentet market, today the users are a bit more sophisticated and buy service based on their needs (not everybody, but more and more). 3G is to be mobile, 4G is still to be mobile and a bump the speed available over air. But it will never be a full good replacement for a fixed line, people say that 4G will be wired line killer, for my parents yes, for the "normal" household services nope.

Look at 802.11ac and ad etc, they increase the speed, but they decrease the range and the SNR must be good to get the higher speeds. Only thing that can do decent range and got some oomph in it for the future is Fiber. I can go on for ever about this, since its what have to do to support my gaming habit :D

sorry for the long off topic rant....
 
Retail is advertising you don't achieve the same level of sales without shelf presence and you still have the problem of bandwidth and download caps.

How much shelf presence does league of legends have? It's the most played online multiplayer game in the western world. Anyway I didn't argue for not having a presence in store, just a different presence. If you can print any game on demand and spit out a pristine copy you've just saved half the distribution costs which would put a hell of a dent in the cost difference of going for a flash cartridge. You'd never have a problem of selling out of copies nor have a problem of overstock and you can still get the games to people who want a physical copy.

It's not workable unless you get the ISPs on board and that would be a complicated negotiation. I know ppl who have 10GB caps which would limit them to one game a month exclusive of their other usage.

<edit> And you're probably looking at a terabyte or more drive required for next gen. 320GB wouldn't hold near the games I own this gen, I doubt next gen games are going to be smaller.

My caps have gone from 60GB a month to 500GB in the space of the current generation and I live in a relatively backwater part of the world and we're certainly not leading any OECD scoreboard for internet connectivity. If people have caps to worry about there is always the option of either bringing a removeable HDD or getting a physical copy. There is a difference between embracing digital and ignoring physical retail.

Games haven't grown in the same way that the media has. In the past generation most games got on quite well with less than a full Xbox 360 disc. Audio files aren't likely to get any bigger so that pretty much leaves video which is often used to cover for the shortcomings of optical media rather than for artistic reasons and textures and game objects. Even if the textures on Fallout 3 got 5* bigger it would still make the game less than 16GB. At an average of 16GB per game you'd still be looking at 60 titles to fill up 1TB HDD space.

Sure, gift cards are a great ancillary business for a grocery store, but they aren't going to sell the console itself. For Gamestop and BestBuy going from making money on 80% of game sales to getting a token 5% via gift cards is a joke. If there are no disks and you can buy every game immediately online, why would people even go to a GameStop? They wouldn't. And GameStop won't bother to even sell systems they stand to make so little money on. And how are platform holders going to sell consoles no one will stock? Exclusively via mail order and/or cable service bundles? That's a pretty scary scenario for them.

How did retailers originally get into the low margin console business in the first place? There are many ways for console manufacturers to please the retailers in order for them to stock the consoles. The games themselves don't have huge margins the retailers only make $12 bucks on a $60 release and they don't make money on the consoles themselves. Retailers aren't in the business for the money from the games that's why very few game only retailers exist, they are in the business to get other business through the trade of games. If retailers can get that foot traffic without devoting the shelf space then they'll be for it and not against it. If 50% of people will download anyway then the best strategy is to make the best use of the 50% who won't and in this case cartridges, game cards and kiosks are an advantage not a disadvantage.
 
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