Please show me the data where the planned holo disks are either faster or hold more data than the bluray upgrades I cited above.
Alternative distribution to optical disks : SSD, cards, and download*
- Thread starter Cheezdoodles
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But those are vintage drives. My question remains, is there any mass market modern drive which isn't using a screw mechanism? I'm not saying they don't exist, just that I haven't found any, the platform is now stable, they won't change it unless there's a very good reason. I haven't checked them all, but the fastest ones in this list are screws, and every single one I dismantled in the last 10 years were all screws, DVD writers, blurays, PS3, laptop drives, enthusiast high-end or low cost.
http://www.anandtech.com/show/1528/12
Anyway, my point about the seek mechanism was that Latency figures are physical limits and are not expected to improve much in the future. The fastest optical drives are around 100ms and have been for many many years. There hasn't been any new tech that improved this figure on any mass market consumer drives. But the landscape IS changing quickly because bandwidth seems capped on low cost 2.5 HDD (~80MB/s), while it's improving a lot on both flash and optical. Cost per GB is improving on all three technologies, so the gap is expected to remains big.
Optical Drive : 100ms latency, 50MB/s, $0.01/GB, $40 drive cost
HDD : 10ms latency, 80MB/s, $0.10/GB, $50 minimum cost
SSD : 0.1ms latency, >100MB/s, $0.60/GB, minimum cost is the controller ($??, or 100% software?)
Each of these have a major advantage over each other, so I think we need all three. A small SSD is the best for install/cache/buffer to hide optical latency, the HDD is the best for AV storage and large game installs, and the optical disk is the best distribution media. I can see them put the HDD only on the high-end SKU along with more internal flash to allow more games installed without flushing that cache (say, +16GB and a 500GB for +$100 retail?).
So whether we need an HDD this generation depends on how much space is enough, I doubt it will reach a point where $50 of flash is enough to replace an HDD, but obviously that would be the goal. We reached that point for music, but I think we're not even close for gaming, because it keeps getting bigger, and they really want you to sell you stuff locked to your hardware, it's important for THEM that you have enough storage.
There is no need to put in a 1000hp engine (super fast linear motor) if your transmission (floating optics) could only handle 200hp...
It's a neat idea, maybe in 10 or 20 years it will be feasible.
Would be cool with some more info on this. How much does the drive costs, how much does it cost to stamp the discs. How many can be produced, etc etc.
I've been struggling to find any info about GE's technology. Yes, they had a 500GB prototype on a lab optical table. But Bluray also had 400GB and 500GB prototypes in 2008, and 1TB prototype in 2010. These are much closer to commercial viability because the drive is the same, and the bluray forum is established and large enough to avoid a format war.
http://www.itproportal.com/2011/07/21/ge-sample-500gb-dvd-size-discs-soon/
http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/storag..._Discs_Steps_Closer_to_Commercialization.html
http://www.itproportal.com/2011/07/21/ge-sample-500gb-dvd-size-discs-soon/
So, shouldn't we assume there's no major advantage in speed or capacity?
http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/storag..._Discs_Steps_Closer_to_Commercialization.html
They said they would focus on archival industry first. The material breakthrough is the recordable type, the advantage is recording speed. Has GE ever said they even had a solution for ROM and, more importantly, adapting current disk "presses" for their technology?
This was a year ago, we are way past "the months ahead". Did they succeed in creating "exciting solution in the marketplace" yet? It sounds like GE doesn't make the drives, disks, or replication solutions, they are looking for partners to do everything, and take all the risks. Did any major consumer electronic company join them yet? This is important to estimate if it's coming in the next 2 years or in the next 10 years... or never.
Or ever. Many techs just don't make it. I remember methanol fuel cells that I thought would appear in a form for PSP, given that working prototypes were ready around the same time and there were press releases from the likes of Toshiba saying how close they were to releasing commercial products. Then there was SED/FED that I thought would be the TVs we'd be buying in the 2010s.
Technological press releases are worth only a little more than nothing. They can't be relied upon to show what'll be available in a given timeframe. They only show the existence of RnD progress.
Technological press releases are worth only a little more than nothing. They can't be relied upon to show what'll be available in a given timeframe. They only show the existence of RnD progress.
And from Popular Science back in April 2009.
http://www.popsci.com/gear-amp-gadgets/article/2009-04/introducing-holo-disc
I think GE expects to go beyond 1TB on a disc. Where I read that I can't recall.
Good find, that's pretty cool. I'm still playing the devil's advocate, I doubt it can use the same metalized glass stamper equipment as bluray (the holographic principle requires much much smaller features). We had a similar problem going from DVD to Bluray, same "technique" as they call it, but not nearly the same equipment. The cost of upgrade was high, and disks initially cost much more to produce, until the volume reimbursed the equipment upgrade. Maybe the upgrade can be paid for by a single console manufacturer, a hundred million disks is a good guaranteed volume. But anyone doing this would definitely pay more than going with the standard.
My opinion is still that, at this point, even the most optimistic situation for GE is: disk won't cost less, won't have more capacity, won't have more speed, and the drive will cost more. What reason does it have to exist?
This is exactly why I have a problem with Marketing VP wording... "a major milestone in eventually"... it was also said that Sony achieved "a major milestone in eventually" producing 1TB per layer bluray disks leading to 12TB on 12 layers, their new pulsed laser diode enabling 2-photon absorption. So using the same wording, bluray is advancing faster. But it doesn't mean anything. It's not near future. It's far ahead. There's also the ultra-violet lasers which are certainly "a major milestone in eventually" something.
It might not be ready now, but I think it will be ready soon after the next-gen launches. In 10-20 years time nobody will be buying discreet game consoles that don't require an online connection & some form of a subscription service.
Tommy McClain
This is what Brian Lawrence posted on his blog back in 2006.
Megatextures best friend, holographic media?
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Ohh yes.. i want this, pretty please with sugar on top.. if the 720 gets this it might help with the costs.
Imagine a 500GB writeable disc in your PC, finally i could backup my stuff on something that isn't harddrives.
He's not talking about the same thing as GE is working on, he's talking about far future technology. Using his analogy, it's like a rubik cube with a million blocks per side. GE is using millions of very small rubik cubes and the same seek mechanism as bluray, therefore it cannot have any better seek time. (but in theory it can have more bandwidth).
This is a wild guess, but I'm beginning to think GE doesn't read more than one bit at a time, which would explain why they don't have the much better bandwidth they should have in theory. If they read only one of each rubik's block at a time, it could allow them to use a head VERY similar to bluray with only one sensor, and potentially getting something on the market quickly. Small modifications to an existing bluray drive could possibly work.
As development is going right now we might end up with a small block with a RJ45 that just works as a cloud device, considering the Nvidia thingy. For me that is just as feasible as everything in the cloud, which still is pure scifi unless you decide to just instantly kill alot of your potential market.
Caps on data, bad speeds is the real story of internet connections in many places, but maybe a low cost device will attract enough customers to make up those loses.
If the Internet service is included/sold with the device: ala cell phone, problem solved. In fact, all our gaming will probably go all portable eventually anyway. All the nay saying about Internet access & speeds gets kinda old. It needs to quit being a crutch from holding back where gaming is definitely heading.
Tommy McClain
Tommy McClain
So you want to sell Consoles with Cell Phone/Data solution, when even ordinary cell phones can get coverage that is reliable enough to provide a constant high speed connection? And the latency is not only high, it is laughable for anything releated to online gaming. LTE might help, but even in Denmark where we have good coverage healthy competition (all thanks to state regulation) LTE is new and is not covering the whole country, and most likely never will.
And i haven't mentioned data caps, which is just as much a part of Cell phone data.
But since you are doing the "gets old" style, how about you make a case for it to be a reality. It's way to easy to just pro-claim that "it's old".
And tell me more about all our gaming going portable, how exactly?
UK average broadband speed = 4.9 Mbps
Removing caps alone aren't enough (plus BT's monopoly means the console companies couldn't offer much of a better deal in the UK anyway). The infrastructure is needed. That's going to take some years to create (plans for large fibre adoption across Europe looking at timelines in the 2017-202 range, and what impact will the economic mess havce on those targets?), meaning time enough for another round of console boxes with physical media distribution.
Sorry to hear the Internet sucks where you live, but that's not the case for everybody. Smartphones are currently a great example of gaming working great over a cell phone connection. Now I'm not saying it's great for real-time multiplayer gaming, it's not. However, it's good enough for the majority of the type of games that are currently on that platform. And as smartphones get more & more popular I think their convenience will trump the appeal of consoles and eventually consoles will no longer be necessary. That's what I mean by our gaming going more portable. Eventually you'll get your gaming from your smartphone or tablet. Discreet consoles will be a thing of the past. Until then, I'm sure physical discs & big hard drives will be included next-gen, but I don't think either will be required. I'm sure there will be options interested for those that want to go cloud only. They already have a little this gen, they'll just keep expanding on that next gen.
Tommy McClain
Yes, i live in a place where data cap on mobile phones is 12 or 20GB, we have had +90% 3G coverage, for years and LTE is available in the big cities today. ADSL connections, when bad is around 8/1 mbit.
Originally you said this:
And now
Whats it gonna be?
And i think the smartphone/tablet discussion should be in some other thread?, but lets see how long it will take tablets and smartphone to compete with the next-gen consoles @200 watt TDP. And then lets play the awesome multiplayer games that can work with the exceptional high latency mobile networks provide.. Wordfeud
Read again. I said you MAY NOT NEED lots of storage. They can do both next gen like they have done already. One doesn't preclude the other. Your original comment was that you will need more & more bigger hard drives to store all your games & media. My comment was that MAY NOT be necessary. Microsoft can go with cloud storage & release a system that doesn't need or require a big hard drive. That's all provided they do not require a hard drive on every unit like they did this gen. So yes, they will most likely have a disc & hard drive, but I don't think they will be required. So I also expect them to release a low cost SKU sometime during the next-gen that does not have a disc and/or hard drive. Is that clear now?
BTW, you asked for a real case. I gave you one with the smartphone & tablet. It's not my fault it's not something you care for. You're not even the market they'll be targeting for anyway.
Tommy McClain
BTW, you asked for a real case. I gave you one with the smartphone & tablet. It's not my fault it's not something you care for. You're not even the market they'll be targeting for anyway.
Tommy McClain
