Alternative distribution to optical disks : SSD, cards, and download*

[MrFox]

Maybe it would be a good idea to sum up the different costs and what we expect the different media to do?

Blu-Ray costs of pressed discs with content:
25GB $0.50
50GB $1
100GB Estimated $2?

Drive costs $20-$30?
Power usage max 10 watt

Speed from 27MB(6X) to 54MB(12x) depending on Drive, the speed has nothing to do with the cost of the actual disc.
I think Blu-Ray will rely on the Hard Drive in order to combat seek times.
If 100GB costs more i think the publishers will just press more discs since there is a harddrive in console.

How about flash?

According to iSuppli for the iphone 4S:
http://timenerdworld.files.wordpress.com/2011/10/isuppli-iphone-4s-bom.gif
$19.20 for 16GB MLC
$38.40 for 32GB MLC
$76.80 for 64GB MLC

According to OCZ, February 2012 Anandtech article:
http://www.anandtech.com/show/5067/understanding-tlc-nand
SLC: 3.00 per GB
MLC: 0.90 per GB
TLC: 0.60 per GB

I can think of two factors to explain the discrepancy. Apple uses 32nm while OCZ is using 25nm. Large volume requirements might force Apple to pay more than the volatile wholesale price. We can assume those prices will be dropping by 2x every 2 years if all goes well. I think Apple's position is a good indicator that the latest and greatest node will not be available at very large volume until later down the road, so will 20nm be ready for 2014?

Need to add some packaging and replication cost, and possibly an overhead for a custom made flash chip (fuses, secure UID, copy protection).

We should count BDXL as 128GB because of the new MLSE encoding, it's not available for -RE disks but it's available for ROM press, I assume it's the same cost for pressing and material versus the 100GB version (since it's the encoding that changed). In fact, maybe we should count 1 layer 32GB, 2 layers 64GB, 4 layers 128GB.

 

[MrFox]

http://phys.org/news/2012-02-toshiba-19nm-nand-memory-world.html
http://www.xbitlabs.com/news/memory..._Lot_of_Hopes_on_19nm_Process_Technology.html

Toshiba Corporation today announced breakthroughs in NAND flash that secure major advances in chip density and performance. In the 19 nanometer generation, Toshiba has developed a 3-bit-per-cell 128 gigabit (Gb) chip with the world's smallest die size -- 170mm2 -- and fastest write speed -- 18MB/s of any 3-bit-per-cell device.

We began production of 19nm technology in Q4, and it will ramp throughout 2012.

No price, but this is looking good for high volume around next gen consoles launch?

 

[hoho]

No word about reliability and speeds look like to be a step back. I wouldn't hold my breath

 

[AlphaWolf]

18MB/s WRITE speed. That's equivalent to a 4x blu-ray burner. How fast do you think a next gen console blu-ray drive will write data? Not in my lifetime would be my guess.

 

[hoho]

Well, for starters it increases the writing time to around 15 minutes instead of 10. Also, how fast is the read speed then?

Also, you conveniently "forgot" to comment on the part where I told about how Nokia pays tons for optimizing their phone flashing systems where the amount of data moved around is tens of times less than with games

 

[AlphaWolf]

Also, you conveniently "forgot" to comment on the part where I told about how Nokia pays tons for optimizing their phone flashing systems where the amount of data moved around is tens of times less than with games

Link?

What is tons?

 

[hoho]

How can I link to a verbal communication between me and CEO of a company? "Tons" meant that they had been paying for around 50 software and hardware developers for past 4 years (when their company took over the flashing stuff development) just to optimize the flashing procedures and he specifically said getting it even a millisecond faster was awesome news for Nokia.

My point is that getting a bunch of data to a memory device is far more complicated than just getting an USB replicator from ebay and plugging it to random PC.

 

[MrFox]

Here's some food for thoughts. Vita games are on 1GB ,2GB or 4GB cards. The retail price seems to follow closely.
Games that fit on a 1 GB are $29
Games that fit on a 2 GB are $39
Uncharted is the only one I found that needs a 4GB card and it's $49

 

[AlphaWolf]

Considering a Sony Vita Memory card costs about 4x what you can buy an SD card for, that fits. There's a range on the price of current gen console games as well. Crappier games typically sell for less.

 

[AlphaWolf]

How can I link to a verbal communication between me and CEO of a company? "Tons" meant that they had been paying for around 50 software and hardware developers for past 4 years (when their company took over the flashing stuff development) just to optimize the flashing procedures and he specifically said getting it even a millisecond faster was awesome news for Nokia.

Considering Nokia employs like 150k ppl, 50 isn't very many. And I can't really see how a millisecond would matter on a process, perhaps you could explain (unless you're talking a per unit value which is completely different). A verbal anecdote really isn't very compelling evidence.

My point is that getting a bunch of data to a memory device is far more complicated than just getting an USB replicator from ebay and plugging it to random PC.

It really isn't that complicated, I can do it on hardware I already own. To do it quickly and cheaply for millions of units would require better hardware, that they could build, easily, because it's not really complicated custom machinery. Obviously they could build complicated custom machinery that would do it even faster if it was warranted.

I really don't see how this works out being more costly than building blu-ray replication facilities. It's different and they have different challenges, but really there's no reason to expect that this would be some daunting challenge. Where are Vita games being replicated? What is their process like?

 

[hoho]

Considering Nokia employs like 150k ppl, 50 isn't very many

Well, then again having a bunch of people work for years on a single task when that technically already works is kind of telling still.

And I can't really see how a millisecond would matter on a process, perhaps you could explain (unless you're talking a per unit value which is completely different).

It was per-flashing operation or in other words time spent for flashing one phone.

A verbal anecdote really isn't very compelling evidence.

As opposed to your anecdotes that have absolutely no backing what so ever?

It really isn't that complicated, I can do it on hardware I already own. To do it quickly and cheaply for millions of units would require better hardware, that they could build, easily, because it's not really complicated custom machinery. Obviously they could build complicated custom machinery that would do it even faster if it was warranted.

I can flash my cellphone at home over USB as well. Why does Nokia need to invest that much in it and optimize it to the limit?

 

[MrFox]

Considering a Sony Vita Memory card costs about 4x what you can buy an SD card for, that fits. There's a range on the price of current gen console games as well. Crappier games typically sell for less.

I'm still curious if that hints about third party publishers being charged more if they go for a 2GB versus a 1GB. The production and replication possibly incurs a cost even at those small sizes. Maybe this information is confidential... any Vita developer would know, but I don't know any.

 

[AlphaWolf]

I don't doubt they'd be charged more, but if they are getting charged $10 more for 1GB sony or someone is pocketing like $9 or more.

 

[AlphaWolf]

As opposed to your anecdotes that have absolutely no backing what so ever?

http://www.vconsole.com/60-Port-USB-Flash-Drive-Duplicator-p-42.html

There are much faster USB 3.0 ones available (30MB/s). That was just the first one I googled.

Do you really think they can't build something better than that for a factory line? Even if they couldn't using a few hundred of those could actually work.

 

[hoho]

http://www.vconsole.com/60-Port-USB-Flash-Drive-Duplicator-p-42.html

Care to explain this then?

I can flash my cellphone at home over USB as well. Why does Nokia need to invest that much in it and optimize it to the limit?

Also USB3 won't help at all when the memory card is far from even being limited by USB2 speeds.

Also, from your link: "Maximum Duplication Speed per Port: 7 MegaBytes per Second"

 

[AlphaWolf]

oh ffs

here's one that's more than 4x as fast

http://www.nexcopy.com/usb-duplicator-standalone/

And these are small business type devices, if you think that's the best they could do in a factory there's really not much point in discussing it.

And as for Nokia spending that much, you'd best ask the guy who told you that they are, because I can't think of any reason at all.

 

[MrFox]

I don't doubt they'd be charged more, but if they are getting charged $10 more for 1GB sony or someone is pocketing like $9 or more.

The distributors and retailers also make a profit. Sony might have created price brackets for different class of games, which happens to follow the whole package deal, aren't they doing this already with different licensing cost between BR game, PSN store, and Minis? Because of the cost of operation for those distribution methods?

Completely made up numbers, to illustrate:
1GB games: sold $20 to distributor, retails $30. Sony charges $4 for licensing and replication, it cost them $2 to make, retailer gets $10, publisher gets $16. Sony profit is $2.
2GB games: sold $26 to distributor, retails $40. Sony charges $6 for licensing and replication, it cost them $3 to make, retailer gets $14, publisher gets $20. Sony profit is $3.

 

[eastmen]

oh ffs

here's one that's more than 4x as fast

http://www.nexcopy.com/usb-duplicator-standalone/

And these are small business type devices, if you think that's the best they could do in a factory there's really not much point in discussing it.

That one claims to do 60 devices at their maximum write speed. The sdhc card i posted earlier has a write speed of about 70MB/s.

That means every 115 seconds an 8 gig sd card would be programed. That means you can do 31 8 gig cards in 1 hour. 31x60 = 1,878 . 1,870x8 = 15,026 sd cards per 8 hour shift at a factory can get programed per duplicator Alpha found here.

100 x 15026. = 1,502,608. So with 100 duplicators we will see 1.5m copies of a game pressed per 8 hour shift at a factory.

1.5m x 5 = 7,513,043 could be made in a single 5 day work week.

For a 16 gig game cut that in half , cut it in half again for a 32 gig game.

However write speeds will continue to go up. The sd in question was first introduced to the market in sept of 2011 . So realisticly we should see faster sd performance with the nand used in 2013 by a console maker.

Then factor in that this would be at a factory and they can surely have more than a 100 duplicator machines being used at once

 

[-tkf-]

Considering a Sony Vita Memory card costs about 4x what you can buy an SD card for, that fits. There's a range on the price of current gen console games as well. Crappier games typically sell for less.

I don't doubt they'd be charged more, but if they are getting charged $10 more for 1GB sony or someone is pocketing like $9 or more.

So you expect games on flash that take up anything from 6GB to 50GB to just be magically priced the same?
Or do you expect that the magic will happen at the retail store?

That is not how it works. If something starts at $1 and ends up costing $10 at retail i can promise you that it will take something very special to keep the retail at$11 for something that starts at $2.

Someone would have to "eat" that added price, at the production point since the mark up is pretty much the same in % no matter how much the base costs is. So Microsoft or Sony would have to eat the extra cost of producing bigger cards.. and by example it's obvious Sony does not, and neither did Nintendo with the N64

As for comparing the production time with a 25GB Blu-Ray.

That would take a 30MB a sec replicator 14min to produce one of those.
So 14 replicators could handle "1 disc" pr minute.

As a comparison Sony has a Blu-Ray plant in Europe that is capable of 850,000 discs.. pr day.

You just need 8263 USB replicators to match that production capacity and the people to feed it, of course you could always move the software production to China

And again, with flash it's the same story all around, bigger games instantly gets more expensive, even in production.

Going by VGChartz, 360 and PS3 sold around 4 million copies in one week, that is a lot of flash media based games.

 

[AlphaWolf]

I don't expect many games to take up 50GB. Because the only way that happens now is putting on 20 languages of raw sound.

The replicators do like 30MB/s per port, the ones I linked have 60 ports and you could fit 3 of them on a normal desk. Do you think that 60 is some sort of hard limit on the amount they could do? Even it if was you could easily fit 1000 of them in a factory and suddenly you have the same capacity as your BR plant (more than double actually). As for needing people to feed them, robots could easily handle switching the USB keys. Could probably run a plant like that with 5 ppl.

I'm not expecting them to use small business type devices any more than I expect them to use stone hammers and chisels.

You guys are trying way too hard to make this into a problem. Move on.