Alternative distribution to optical disks : SSD, cards, and download*

The move against used games is happening. Downloads are tied to user accounts, online games require passes, offline games have content that is withheld unless you're the first user and enter the 20 character code on the included piece of paper using the d-pad.

Building support for DRM into the media would at the very least be better than paper codes..


eh nintendo had that idea in the 90s with optical media distribution.

SNES CD-ROM titles would have come in caddies (like what you used with 1x CD-ROM drives and early burners, or sony mini-disc and UMD). a small chip was to be included, which did DRM and contain a small amount of flash for game saves.

http://www.consoledatabase.com/consoleinfo/snescdrom/

the system went nowhere partly because of disagreement between sony and nintendo over this, then nintendo went with philips, then nintendo and philips and sony. it was a clusterfuck of petty infighting, delays compromised it, the SNES CPU was too crappy..

I'm still waiting for the SNES CD-ROM, damn :eek:
 
Right now, BluRay licensing cost is 9 dollars per hardware and 11 cents per disk. Production cost is 50GB disk is about 1 dollar. They can already produce 128GB today in large production, with up to 400GB and 1TB planned for 2013, 2014 respectively, the hardware is already compatible. They also planned hybrids with one of the layer being RW, making patches and DLC writable on disk.

Large titles with big environment and assets will need more than 50GB, they can already do 128GB for a dollar or two per disk. None of the other distribution models can work with those titles. If Sony uses a BDXL+ drive, while Microsoft goes download only or flash based, we can expect some exclusive MMO, RPG and Adventure games on the Sony platform.
 
Right now, BluRay licensing cost is 9 dollars per hardware and 11 cents per disk. Production cost is 50GB disk is about 1 dollar. They can already produce 128GB today in large production, with up to 400GB and 1TB planned for 2013, 2014 respectively, the hardware is already compatible. They also planned hybrids with one of the layer being RW, making patches and DLC writable on disk.

Large titles with big environment and assets will need more than 50GB, they can already do 128GB for a dollar or two per disk. None of the other distribution models can work with those titles. If Sony uses a BDXL+ drive, while Microsoft goes download only or flash based, we can expect some exclusive MMO, RPG and Adventure games on the Sony platform.

Is the licence cost for ALL blu-ray drives or only for those who have movie playback enabled? Console can block movie playback if it makes financial sense. Same question for discs, is it only licence for movies or for any disc?
 
It's not just the raw price of flash. You need to have also the factories to copy in the data, package the carts and so on. If you can write let's say 10MB/s to those cheap cards(very doubtful) copying a single 25GB blu-ray's worth of data would take 41 minutes and then some. Scale that to produce 2-5 million copies for launch date and try to interleave all the console releases not just one game. It's not going to be cheap factories and comparing price of blank media is not going to yield your true cost. Once your console is done the factories need to be closed which also should be counted to the price of the media as the guy manufacturing will not want to make a loss.

Vita uses carts. Console carts would need to be faster than Vita carts - we already established this.

Flash is competing with optical that costs less than 1$ to manufacture for 25GB capacity with comparative performance to your example and has no risk involved in scaling up the technology or in need of building manufacturing capacity that is only used for the lifetime of single console.

If we assume 4x blu-ray in all costs 20 bucks to put into a console it can even be that buying single 20GB triple AAA game in launch period already has cost more on flash than blu-ray(count all the costs, not just blank media. And if you get only same perf as optical why even bother... 20MB/s).

Kinect Sports 3 on a 2GB cart - $3 for the cart, save $150 on the cost of the console!

We already see games on xbox360 that spill to 2 and 3 discs. Assuming next gen triple AAA games are 25GB is on my opinion safe bet, if we have blu-ray I have no doubt we will see some games pushing towards 50GB(next version of rage perhaps...)

Games kind of grow - or shrink - to the size that's available. Always have.

A download only game (for use off the HDD or a USB pendrive) could be 20 or 30 or 130 GB. Cart releases will be made to fit in the size of cart that your business case justifies. Aren't Vita carts up to 4GB already?

By the time flash is price competitive perhaps major part of markets have already moved to mainly digital distribution due to convenience and even cheaper pricing.

I think anyone ditching optical would actually be banking on the switch to digital distribution taking place during the course of this generation.
 
Vita uses carts. Console carts would need to be faster than Vita carts - we already established this.

It all boils down to money. Can you make a calculation which shows carts/flash become feasible next gen if the point is to be at least as profitable with flash as with 25-50GB blu-rays.

Assumptions you could start from and continue triple A games are 20GB+ and regular games smaller. Average consumer buys 10 games a gen(let's assume 3 triple a games and 7 whatnots). Let's use assumption of blu-ray drive costs 30$(I assume it's less in 2014 for 4x, but let's be generous. 4x drive is going to be around 5W so cooling is not a problem that adds up). Pressing+shipping 25GB blu-ray costs 1$(includes profit for manufacturer+shipping). How does flash add up? Performance cannot be worse than blu-ray at 4x CLV and take in mind the manufacturing in dedicated factories + closing factories down assuming your cart business has no continuation after next gen/digital distribution happens.

It's not the feasibility of different sized carts. It all is in money(which is greatly affected by size and speed)
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Vita uses carts. Console carts would need to be faster than Vita carts - we already established this.
Why do you think Wuu isn't going that route, and is using discs? As they are likely targeting a significantly lower spec than MS or Sony, the issues with cards (capacity) are going to have less impact on Wuu, making them a more suitable medium. Yet Nintendo, who seem better at anyone at being cheap, have gone with a DVD drive.

Without any real knowledge of costs myself, that to me speaks volumes about the real costs. Nintendo know better than anyone what making money on cards is like with all their handheld experience, and yet they choose to add a bulky optical drive to their next machine.

Games kind of grow - or shrink - to the size that's available. Always have.

A download only game (for use off the HDD or a USB pendrive) could be 20 or 30 or 130 GB. Cart releases will be made to fit in the size of cart that your business case justifies. Aren't Vita carts up to 4GB already?
That was true and fair when platforms were running different games. Now that COD and Madden and FIFA are on all platforms, if a cart is constrictive it'll show in the game. A 30 GB BRD console game will look much better than the same game capped to a 4GB card (extreme example. And note this gen the difference between 25 GBs and 6 GBs wasn't relevant because the hardware was only really good enough to take nearer 6GBs of content within the development budgets. Next gen will be able to consume far larger resources for the same development costs, so storage requirements will increase, or else games won't be improving much!).
 
Actually wiiU uses something similar to blu-ray. Maybe changed enough to go past the (movie) licencing fees but still possible to use existing replication factories? Proprietary part also might have something to do with drm and making it more difficult to read the discs with regular drive.

On May 4, 2011, Kotaku reported that Project Café would have 8 GB of flash-based memory on-board, with the assumed purpose of storing game saves. The game discs used by the console were said to be of a proprietary format, and to hold up to 25 GB of data, which is similar to the capacity of a single-layer Blu-ray Disc.[44]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wii_U
 
Is the licence cost for ALL blu-ray drives or only for those who have movie playback enabled? Console can block movie playback if it makes financial sense. Same question for discs, is it only licence for movies or for any disc?
http://www.blu-raydisc.info/
http://news.cnet.com/8301-17938_105-10172042-1.html
From the article:
The license will include all necessary Blu-ray, DVD, and CD patents for selling Blu-ray players. The fees for the new licenses will be $9.50 for a Blu-ray player, and $14 for a Blu-ray recorder. Making Blu-ray Disc will cost 11 cents for read-only, 12 cents for recordable discs, and 15 cents for rewritable discs.
So it's everything you need for a complete player. I guess they could try to save a buck or two on the playback codecs, it's possible Nintendo did this, and supports only a single layer, making the drive simpler and more robust ;)
 
Actually wiiU uses something similar to blu-ray. Maybe changed enough to go past the (movie) licencing fees but still possible to use existing replication factories? Proprietary part also might have something to do with drm and making it more difficult to read the discs with regular drive.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wii_U
Possibly printed back-to-front like GC. And if anything that proves the point moreso. Nintendo feel it's better economy to go with their own optical format rather than invest in cards. If cards don't make financial sense for Nintendo, how can they for MS or Sony who'll likely need more capacity than Wuu will need?
 
http://www.blu-raydisc.info/
http://news.cnet.com/8301-17938_105-10172042-1.html
From the article:
So it's everything you need for a complete player. I guess they could try to save a buck or two on the playback codecs, it's possible Nintendo did this, and supports only a single layer, making the drive simpler and more robust ;)

Thanks for digging the info! I guess that's why ninty is the one making money from HW when others might take a pretty huge loss when launching new consoles.
 
eh nintendo had that idea in the 90s with optical media distribution.

SNES CD-ROM titles would have come in caddies (like what you used with 1x CD-ROM drives and early burners, or sony mini-disc and UMD). a small chip was to be included, which did DRM and contain a small amount of flash for game saves.

http://www.consoledatabase.com/consoleinfo/snescdrom/

I'd completely forgotten about the chip-in-caddy thing! Yeah, kind of like that except it'd be connected by a wire to Nintendo, so they could force monies out of people to access 2nd hand use.

On-cart DRM like the stuff that protects/infects your DD download purchases.

the system went nowhere partly because of disagreement between sony and nintendo over this, then nintendo went with philips, then nintendo and philips and sony. it was a clusterfuck of petty infighting, delays compromised it, the SNES CPU was too crappy..

I'm still waiting for the SNES CD-ROM, damn :eek:

That got me thinking about CD-i Zelda, which I know only though internet videos. This video is awfully stupid and completely pointless, but knowing it's CD-i Zelda somehow makes it kind-of funny for me (especially the words "Dinner" and "Dodongos??"):

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RPKfbMOM_lg
 
Actually wiiU uses something similar to blu-ray. Maybe changed enough to go past the (movie) licencing fees but still possible to use existing replication factories? Proprietary part also might have something to do with drm and making it more difficult to read the discs with regular drive.

yeah nintendo just used DVD on gamecube as well, with minor differences - not unlike floppies with "illegal" sectors long ago. but they called them, er, something.

I'm 99% sure WiiU uses bluray, only unbranded and very slightly tweaked.
 
Why do you think Wuu isn't going that route, and is using discs? As they are likely targeting a significantly lower spec than MS or Sony, the issues with cards (capacity) are going to have less impact on Wuu, making them a more suitable medium. Yet Nintendo, who seem better at anyone at being cheap, have gone with a DVD drive.

Without any real knowledge of costs myself, that to me speaks volumes about the real costs. Nintendo know better than anyone what making money on cards is like with all their handheld experience, and yet they choose to add a bulky optical drive to their next machine.

Like I said, I'm expecting optical from everyone. If MS did have a reason to do differently to Nintendo it'd have to be because they were planning to do something that Nintendo didn't want to try, or because their hardware situation was different.

Despite all the smallish reasons to ditch an optical drive (volume, weight, noise etc) the only big one I can think of is applying Xbox Live style DRM to offline customers - you can get the full experience as an offline buyer (no online content unlocks needed) and your second hand options are controlled but not necessarily eliminated. Nintendo probably wouldn't have the clout to try and push this even if they wanted to. And yeah, there would be big risks in trying to push that on the market.

Perhaps (hypothetically) Nintendo feel they can get away with a 6x optical drive unassisted by a HDD, but MS feel they need higher effective bandwidth across a wider range of situations direct from their physical media. But a big cache on the system would get around that, and you'd need pretty fast carts to outdo the peak transfer rate of the bluray drive. If I had to pick one reason it'd be the offline-friendly and paper-free DRM thing.

That was true and fair when platforms were running different games. Now that COD and Madden and FIFA are on all platforms, if a cart is constrictive it'll show in the game. A 30 GB BRD console game will look much better than the same game capped to a 4GB card (extreme example. And note this gen the difference between 25 GBs and 6 GBs wasn't relevant because the hardware was only really good enough to take nearer 6GBs of content within the development budgets. Next gen will be able to consume far larger resources for the same development costs, so storage requirements will increase, or else games won't be improving much!).

Yeah, if there's too big a difference it'll definitely show. How much, and how much that matters will depend on a number of factors. If MS really do go for a SoC and Sony go for much more powerful system perhaps there'll be a gap anyway. Maybe a 16 GB cart could allow for a gap similar to the 360 -> PS3 kind of gap we saw this generation (huge in theory, small in practice), until larger carts came along.

A lot of Wii style, Kinect friendly games could actually fit on current Vita sized carts without any problem, but obviously that's only one part of the picture.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
To put it more concisely:

Using "smart" DRM on the cart can allow publishers to use more aggressive (or complete) first-owner content lockdowns while simultaneously preventing offline gamers from losing out on any of the content they have paid for*.

*Because locking people out of content they've paid for sucks.
 
To put it more concisely:

Using "smart" DRM on the cart can allow publishers to use more aggressive (or complete) first-owner content lockdowns while simultaneously preventing offline gamers from losing out on any of the content they have paid for*.

*Because locking people out of content they've paid for sucks.
The bluray games haven't been cracked, except for the bus glitch, and that hole was closed later on. I don't see what the gain would be for the ridiculous expense of small capacity carts with "smart" circuitry. Once a console is cracked and mod-chipped, the smart circuit won't be of any use anyway.

Hybrid BluRays allows a lot of flexibility for a dollar per disk, and the advantages of the standardized bluray "press" is dwarfing any expensive cart production, with up to 1TB disks in 2014. There's no reason for carts this generation, or even the next (which should be all networked). Unless we are in the line of thinking that "8GB should be enough for anyone". Some developers need that additional space, specially RPGs and MMOs. I'm guessing Everquest Next will need much more than 25GB, these people LOVE high detail textures and huge worlds ;)

But it could be good to have carts if the next generation of PORTABLES can read last gen home consoles... I'm pipe dreaming here... I was sure the next nintendo portable would read my gamecube disks and that it was the reason for their small size... bummer.
 
The bluray games haven't been cracked, except for the bus glitch, and that hole was closed later on. I don't see what the gain would be for the ridiculous expense of small capacity carts with "smart" circuitry. Once a console is cracked and mod-chipped, the smart circuit won't be of any use anyway.

Hybrid BluRays allows a lot of flexibility for a dollar per disk, and the advantages of the standardized bluray "press" is dwarfing any expensive cart production, with up to 1TB disks in 2014. There's no reason for carts this generation, or even the next (which should be all networked). Unless we are in the line of thinking that "8GB should be enough for anyone". Some developers need that additional space, specially RPGs and MMOs. I'm guessing Everquest Next will need much more than 25GB, these people LOVE high detail textures and huge worlds ;)

But it could be good to have carts if the next generation of PORTABLES can read last gen home consoles... I'm pipe dreaming here... I was sure the next nintendo portable would read my gamecube disks and that it was the reason for their small size... bummer.

Really ?

I can download uncharted 3 right now . So i don't see how Bluray hasn't been cracked.


Also SD cards do have the option of security .

While 1TB discs might be possible at some point , how fast will a 4x bluray drive read them ? On that 10th layer or whatever how well will it work , how bad will the switching times be. Will it even be usable in a next gen console .


Lets face it , bluray is damn slow and the more ram we get next gen the slower it will be .

Games like ever quest next or whatever MMORPG wil lrequire an internet connection anyway and you can make them DD only to the hardrive.

Also no one assumes just 8 GB. However I think 16gigs at launch is fine. It more than doubles the xbox's current capacity and its much faster. Use true hd instead of LCPM and i'm sure other compression will get better. There is also tessellation too and i wonder how much that will decrease game size .

PRices on dram exchange were posted earlier , but we have no idea what nm sized chips those are and they are MLC which we don't need in a console. TLC is really all thats needed since there would be a handfull of times you'd write to the disc .



Lets also not forget how popular the Xbox 360 S and the ps3 slim are. There is a huge market for smaller consoles , I think sony's sucess with the psone and pstwo proved it and MS's sucess with the S also proved it .

A disk driveless console should be much smaller than one with it. Also since your removing anywhere from $20-$50 per console the disk driveless console can have other advantages.


What would happen if The ps4 shiped with a 6x bluray and 4 gigs of ram but the xbox loop or whatever launches with flash and 8 gigs of ram.

There will be an incentive for people to buy the xbox because the greater ram will allow them have more impressive visuals .

$20-$50 can do alot to increase the specs of the console and its a cost advantage that will most likely never go away in the future


And hey , just like you look to the future of bluray , flash also has a future . Speeds will go up and so will capacity . We might start at 16 gigs with 60MB/s read times but we can end up with 128 gigs with 200MB/s read times by the end of the console generation , esp if we see another 7 or 8 year gen. That can't be said for a bluray drive. They will have to code to the original drives forever , or sony would have to buy out the original systems from the owners.
 
Really ?

I can download uncharted 3 right now . So i don't see how Bluray hasn't been cracked.

Sure, you can make images and download them(they are regular blu-rays after all, just slam it inside a pc drive...). Good luck on trying to run one on a ps3 not having ancient firmware. PS3 was hacked but was then secured again with firmware update. The thing is ps3 having new enough firmware can recognize between original disc and copy and copy will not start. The copy protection in blu-ray games has not been cracked.
 
Sure, you can make images and download them(they are regular blu-rays after all, just slam it inside a pc drive...). Good luck on trying to run one on a ps3 not having ancient firmware. PS3 was hacked but was then secured again with firmware update. The thing is ps3 having new enough firmware can recognize between original disc and copy and copy will not start. The copy protection in blu-ray games has not been cracked.

you can play copied games and have a new firmware.


Whooooooooo MAGIC !:oops:

The point remains , bluray has been hacked , its no more secure than anything else. Sony had to disable main features of their console to stop the piracy
 
you can play copied games and have a new firmware.


Whooooooooo MAGIC !:oops:

The point remains , bluray has been hacked , its no more secure than anything else. Sony had to disable main features of their console to stop the piracy

You can if you have old firmware to begin with. If you have new firmware there is no way to downgrade+pirate. There just isn't a way currently to pirate on ps3 if you go to best buy and buy a new ps3 and try with those images one could download.

The secret sauce is in the way the discs are pressed, there is no way to fake a copy to be original at the moment(as the copy one burns is different than the copy that was pressed at factory). XBOX360 piracy get's over this secret sauce because the firmware on dvd drive was not protected properly. Pirates basically rewrote the firmware to not detect copies.
 
this is the state of ps3 hacking/piracy after sony plugged the hole(which was not in the blu-ray to begin with) (and this has been status of ps3 hacking/cracking/pirating scene since november) http://kakaroto.homelinux.net/2011/11/clarifications-about-3-73-jailbreak/

There just is no way to pirate unless you are running ancient firmware.

Some may say it’s not a real jailbreak, but the way I see it, there are three ‘jails’ on the ps3, I broke the first one which prevents you from installing anything, so now you can install your .pkg, great, but it won’t run, that’s the second jail.

So if you have current firmware and enough relations you might be able to copy something to ps3 hard drive but not even start a hello world. Pretty good patching from sony I would say :) I bet ps3 was the first console to recover from hacked status.

and this part was later on proven to be untrue and the people claiming things were full of shit
(some have succeeded but do not wish to release it, at least not for now) then I will release.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Back
Top