I think the burden of proof is entirely the other way around. No, it's not obvious. There's increased cost in developing/deploying the DRM. There's increased hassles to paying gamers who buy the DRM-locked product, making DRM-locked products gain a worse reputation. In fact, in some cases it's both easier and more convenient to go with the pirated version, provided you have a bit of technical knowhow.
So there are clearly some forces that go both ways in pushing people to/from piracy. And before punishing their own customers, companies really should demonstrate that doing so actually helps them. Otherwise they're just shooting themselves in the foot while hurting their paying customers at the same time.
Well, I think it's relatively simple: almost all major publishers deploy a certain degrees of DRM in their games. Not to mention that many publishers are considering abandoning PC games in favor of consoles, just because of DRM issues. For them, consoles have the best of both worlds: they have built-in DRM which is quite difficult to crack (most requires a physical modification to the console which can void warranty), and they are not that annoying to customers.
Right, so this is why I have little problem with minimal DRM like, say, CD checks. It's the nasty rootkit and online activation stuff that gets on my nerves. These minimal DRM products have similar difficulties in hassle for pirates to the more sophisticated versions, but don't have the problem of penalizing paying gamers much (usually).
The problem is those nasty rootkits are actually originated from CD checks. You see, CD checks are quite easy to defeat. In early days, people just try to burn the game disk. Later, people uses CD emulators. Or just use cracked executables. That's why game developers opt for more crazy DRM schemes. Basically, most game developers have no resource to develop their own CD checks (or other DRM systems), so they buy it from others, such as Macrovision.
Actually, this is why I think the failed trusted computing initiative is actually good. With trusted computing game developers can easily provide an almost impossible to crack game executables (because it's encrypted) so CD checks don't have to rely on stupid rootkit schemes to protect them. Unfortunately, many people freaked out on many incorrect assumptions and now it's completely dead.
The new place that many companies have taken the piracy issue that I fully support, however, is in the delivery of new, udpated content only to registered owners of the products in question. Online services are another good option. Spore, for example, really has no need whatsoever for that shitty rootkit junk: they have an online service. All that you need is what they're already doing: require game registration to sign up for an account (and some limited number of accounts per purchase, like 5 or some such). That would provide paying gamers with no penalty whatsoever, but ensure significant hassle to pirates.
I agree with that. Spore is a specially disappointing example, as one will want to use its online capability to have the full game experiences. To my understanding, currently cracked Spore games can't access the server (I'm not sure about this). It's unfortunate that a game with essential online elements opt for such stupid DRM schemes. This is just like, say, if World of Warcraft performs CD checks.
However, not every games can be protected with online elements. Although it can force to use online checks (like Steam), but there are also people who don't like this.
Windows is in a different ballpark, though. It's a monopoly product: almost everybody uses it, pirates and non-pirates alike. They clearly have nothing to lose by going as far as they can on the DRM. So I'm personally willing to forgive them on this particular issue, but I'm not willing to pay for a new Microsoft OS that doesn't have added value for me.
Actually, I think it's quite the opposite. Most Windows sales are actually done through OEM channels. I believe that retail versions of Windows are actually the minority. So I don't know why Microsoft insists on making a DRM scheme on Windows. They can easily go after those OEM who sells pirated copies of Windows.
I think the only reason that Microsoft make WPA is to prevent "casual piracy," that is, to those who bought one retail copy of Windows (and Office) then installed on several computers. I think this is actually what Microsoft is going after.
Another issue I forgot to mention is the cost of customer services. This is actually probably the most important issue for many publishers and developers. For example, we received many e-mail services requests and later found out that these are from pirated copies! Those users do not know their copies of the software is pirated (it comes with a product they bought), but that still causes us a lot of trouble and increases our cost significantly. This forced us to discontinue providing direct customer service anymore, and customers will have to go through the retailers for service.