Not really... the problem is Nick just dismisses any evidence that runs counter to his way of thinking out of hand. FWIW, I think that Nick is right about much of what he says, just very wrong about when it is going to happen (he thinks it is a few years, I think it is a few decades...). You don't have to look very far back in this industry to find people making some outlandish claims about the way things will be 10 years in the future. Things rarely work out how people imagine...
When do you guys think that Intel CPUs will have AVX-1024 (in 2008 Intel said it extends to 1024 bit FP and 512 bit integer—correct me if anything's changed since then)?
I'm going to assume Tick-Tock continues at ~1 microarchitecture / 2 years, and that AVX width changes only happen with microarchitecture changes (is this a safe assumption?).
If either INT or FP gets doubled per microarchitecture change, that gives:
2011 — Sandy Bridge — 128 bit INT / 256 bit FP
2013 — Haswell — 256 bit INT / 256 bit FP (
this says Haswell's been delayed to 2014. Anyone know anything about that?)
2015 — SkyLake — 256 bit INT / 512 bit FP
2017 — SkyLake + 1 — 512 bit INT / 512 bit FP
2019 — SkyLake + 2 — 512 bit INT / 1024 bit FP
If both INT and FP get doubled per microarchitecture change (when possible), that gives 2017 — SkyLake + 1 — 512 bit INT / 1024 bit FP. Something quicker could give 2015 — SkyLake — 512 bit INT / 1024 bit FP.
Using the first sequence of values, if the number of cores doubles every 4 years and clock speed stays relatively unchanged, then (disregarding other changes) that means the INT/FP doubles every 2 years.