That was never the question. Joe Public won't notice a lot of things. He won't notice 60 Hz unless you tell him to read a sign in the game world while you are panning the camera. He also won't notice the anti-aliasing, motion blur, HDRL you bought with the drop in framerate. He won't notice if you double your animation transitions. He doesn't notice the difference between the first MGS4 trailer and the actual game or the difference between the pre-rendered trailer of Motorstorm and the actual game. The saddest recent thing are some user comments at the "Black Mesa" trailer on Eurogamer where some people perceive it like just another Half Life mod.
I don't even ask myself if it is wise to aim for 30 Hz when making a game for Joe Public. It most probably is. The most important question is "Is it good to aim to please Joe Public and noone more demanding?"
btw my sister only played games ocasionally in her life but she can tell the difference. I love my sister.
People are downplaying the average person to much.
The average persondoes notice AA, framerate, differences in trailers etc. They just dont care at the same level as some other persons do. They might not know the correct words for what they are seeing, but they definately are able to percieve them.
Its complete and utter BS when people say that Joe casual doesn't notice the differences, they do notice differences they just dont care as much about them.
I have primarly only casual friends, (not to many geeks like me that smoke alot of weed), and they all manage to see differences. I have friends that dont have consoles and rarely ever play games, that notice that Fifa 08 on my PS3 is not as smooth as than Fifa 08 on another friends X360. (Fifa 09 however looks about the same, and has same framerate)
They notice when framerates are bad, high, AA, everything. They are not blind, they just dont care as much about the differences.
Saying that they dont notice is imo completely ridiculous. It implies that they have worse vision that gamers or something. They have the same ability to look at pictures and tell the differences. They are able to notice the differences, its not like they are blind!!! They see them just like we see the differences. They just dont CARE as much about the differences. Thats a big difference.