If there's a formula, why has no-one discovered it in 40+ years of video gaming? And why is it the same in every creative industry, with content being made that performs far better than expected and far worse?
Harry Potter is a good example. It's a mammoth franchise. When Rowling wrote it, she was rejected time and again because no-one in the industry thought there was scope for that sort of story. Chicken House gave it a go as something different and they were just gunning for diverse and original. It launched into the market with no particular interest. Consumers weren't going gaga over it. Then it released in the US where it got more attention, particularly because a movie mogul’s daughter liked it IIRC and he saw scope for movies, and with added marketing it blew up. Now consumers who had no interest in HP are besotted by it thanks to the creative work of the artist being supported by big marketing and PR dollars.
The children's literature market had no idea what would make a huge franchise. Neither did consumers until they were encouraged to adopt it.
But you can't just throw marketing money at a project and expect it succeed, as Concord shows, which was Sony/Firesprite's cynical conceit.
You will find any number of such examples in movies, books, art (works rejected in their time only for attitudes to completely change), and video games, both ways. That should be evidence enough that no-one knows the formula for creative success, and indeed, there isn't one because people are fickle and random. Hence bandwagoning because the moment someone has stumbled on something that works, there's a new market for that which you need to get on early enough to be a success and not a me-too also-ran.