DavidGraham
Veteran
Well, speak of the devil, we now know that NVIDIA secured 70% of CoWoS capacity for the entirety of 2025, which is massive! This means they most likely need a lot more wafers than before.
NVIDIA discussion [2025]
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Well, speak of the devil, we now know that NVIDIA secured 70% of CoWoS capacity for the entirety of 2025, which is massive! This means they most likely need a lot more wafers than before.
DavidGraham
Veteran
Chinese companies are significantly ramping up their orders for H20 chips as a result of a huge surge in AI compute demand due to DeepSeek.
That’s CoWoS-L not all of CoWoS. I know TSMC is in the process of converting CoWoS-S capacity to CoWoS-L but how much total capacity will “L represent in 2025?
DavidGraham
Veteran
NVIDIA has improved their DeepSeek inference performance by 4x on the H200 and by 25x on the B200 through software updates.
A100/H100/H200 all used CoWoS-S, while AMD MI300 uses CoWoS-L, B200 uses CoWoS-L too, so they both compete on the same pie, with NVIDIA talking the lion's share now. In 2024, CoWoS-L accounted for ~15% of total CoWoS capacity. TrendForce estimates that CoWoS-L will constitute about 50-60% of TSMC's CoWoS capacity in 2025.
DavidGraham
Veteran
NVIDIA Q4 2025 results:
Revenue of $39.3B beating expectations of $38.04B (+12% QoQ, 78% YoY)
-Data Center: $35.6B (Est. $34.1B)
;up 16% QoQ, up 93% YoY; Full-year revenue up 142% to $115.2 billion
-Gaming: $2.5B (Est. $3.2B)
; down 22% QoQ, down 11% YoY; Full-year revenue up 9% to $11.4 billion
-Professional Visualization: $511M (Est. $486M); Q4 revenue of $511 million, up 5% QoQ, up 10% YoY; Full-year revenue up 21% to $1.9 billion
-Automotive: $570M (Est. $449M); Q4 revenue of $570 million, up 27% QoQ, up 103% YoY; Full-year revenue up 55% to $1.7 billion
Guidance:
Revenue: $43.0B ± 2% (Est. $42.3B)
NVIDIA on Blackwell: "We delivered $11.0 billion of Blackwell architecture revenue in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, the fastest product ramp in our company’s history."
Revenue of $39.3B beating expectations of $38.04B (+12% QoQ, 78% YoY)
-Data Center: $35.6B (Est. $34.1B)
;up 16% QoQ, up 93% YoY; Full-year revenue up 142% to $115.2 billion-Gaming: $2.5B (Est. $3.2B)
; down 22% QoQ, down 11% YoY; Full-year revenue up 9% to $11.4 billion-Professional Visualization: $511M (Est. $486M)
; Q4 revenue of $511 million, up 5% QoQ, up 10% YoY; Full-year revenue up 21% to $1.9 billion-Automotive: $570M (Est. $449M)
; Q4 revenue of $570 million, up 27% QoQ, up 103% YoY; Full-year revenue up 55% to $1.7 billionGuidance:
Revenue: $43.0B ± 2% (Est. $42.3B)
NVIDIA on Blackwell: "We delivered $11.0 billion of Blackwell architecture revenue in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, the fastest product ramp in our company’s history."
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Excellent.NVIDIA Q4 2025 results:
-Gaming: $2.5B (Est. $3.2B)
arandomguy
Veteran
The numbers might not mean what you think they (or want them to) indicate.
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arandomguy
Veteran
-Gaming: $2.5B (Est. $3.2B)
That estimate number is interesting because this is from the previous quarters earnings call transcript (note gaming revenue for 2024Q3 was 3.3b) -
That aggressive supply ramp down on Ada/4xxx being rumored and reported all throughout the end of the last year wasn't based on nothing.
Ha yeah even when they say exactly what’s going to happen people still hold on to hope.
They said supply would be tight but they didn’t say why. It makes no sense that both GB203 and AD103 are in short supply when they’re basically the same die on the same process. If I parse those statements from Nvidia it reads to me that “gaming supply” was tight because they were ramping “all their different products”.
i.e. they re-routed consumer wafers to B200 in Q4 to help recover from the earlier screw up and meet datacenter commitments. Perfectly sensible business decision of course. Follow the money.
DavidGraham
Veteran
Morgan Stanley believes all companies except NVIDIA are cutting CoWoS orders.
Morgan Stanley analysts have noted that companies like AMD, Google TPU, and Intel Habana have canceled CoWoS orders due to overly optimistic expectations. Many of these companies are expected to lose market share to NVIDIA by 2025.
According to Morgan Stanley's report, NVIDIA is not reducing its orders for front-end wafers like 4nm wafers. They estimate NVIDIA's CoWoS demand for 2025 to be around 450,000 wafers. This includes 390,000 CoWoS-L wafers for B300, 50,000 CoWoS-S for H20, and 10,000 CoWoS-R for AI PCs and automotive applications. The slight reduction from an earlier estimate of 465,000 wafers is attributed to a product transition.
It is important to follow the timeline. Basing your information off a single report is questionable at the best of times.
In January we had-
TrendForce: "TSMC Faces Order Cut Fears as AMD, Broadcom, and Nvidia Reportdely Slash CoWoS-S Demand"
Morgan Stanley: "TSMC's Customers Like AMD And Broadcom Are Releasing CoWoS-S Capacity Due To Weaker Demand," Allowing NVIDIA To "Convert This Capacity To CoWoS-L For GB300A Production"
and "Nomura: $NVDA could slash CoWoS-S orders from TSMC and UMC by up to 80% in 2025 due to weaker demand for Hopper platform chips and the latest GB200A and GB300A. This could result in a 1-2% revenue drop for $TSM. However, AI demand is still expected to drive a 20% revenue growth for TSMC this year."
TSMC actually responded and outright denied rumors of customers cutting CoWoS orders and adding they are still trying to meet customers' needs.
"Well, yes, today is all AI focused, and we have very tight capacity and cannot even meet customers' need. But whether other products will adopt this kind of CoWoS approach? They will. It's coming, and we know that it's coming. So that's all I can say." "Rick, as you said, there's a lot of rumor. That's a rumor. I assure you. We are working very hard to meet the requirement of my customers' demand. So cut the order, that won't happen."
Feb-
TrendForce: "TSMC Reportedly Sees CoWoS Order Surge, with NVIDIA Securing 70% of 2025 CoWoS-L Capacity"
March-
TrendForce: "NVIDIA’s CoWoS Orders Reportedly Face Decline Concerns as Hopper Ends, Market Awaits GB300 Boost"
and now all this other noise...
DavidGraham
Veteran
The Morgan Stanley report is the latest, and it combs through all of the other reports with detailed numbers on each company, all companies except NVIDIA have downsized their capacity.
Ummmm... Where is that from?
These sorts of stories usually exist behind a very elaborate subscription paywall. I see a multitude of references to the same story online, but the story itself probably lives here: https://www.morganstanley.com/im/other/subscription-center.html
And if you aren't an investment broker or portfolio manager as part of an enormous subscription holder, you probably can't get to it. Bloomberg has a similar subscription system for stories, OpEds, and market analysis tools.
Nvidia denies reports that its RTX 50 laptop GPUs are missing ROPs, too.
www.theverge.com
Nvidia denies reports that its RTX 50 laptop GPUs are missing ROPs, too
“No further issues,” says Nvidia.
www.theverge.com
As Tom's hardware pointed out, their answer actually doesn't deny the possibility that there were missing ROPs, just that there isn't anymoreNvidia denies reports that its RTX 50 laptop GPUs are missing ROPs, too.
Nvidia denies reports that its RTX 50 laptop GPUs are missing ROPs, too
“No further issues,” says Nvidia.
DavidGraham
Veteran
GPU marketshare numbers for Q4 2024 (ending Dec 2024), NVIDIA restricted RTX 40 supply in this quarter, shipping about only 6.9 million GPUs (which is 0.5 million less than similar periods in 2023 and 1.5 million less than peak 2024). This resulted in NVIDIA's share dropping to 82% from 90%, while AMD shares increased to 17% from 10%.
www.3dcenter.org
Die Grafikchip- und Grafikkarten-Marktanteile im vierten Quartal 2024 | 3DCenter.org
Gemäß den Marktforschern von Jon Peddie Research haben die Grafikchip-Entwickler im vierten Quartal des letzten Jahres 8,4 Millionen Grafikchips für Desktop-Grafikkarten abgesetzt, gezählt unabhängig des Segments (Consumer oder Profi), aber rein für
Fast.GPU marketshare numbers for Q4 2024 (ending Dec 2024), NVIDIA restricted RTX 40 supply in this quarter, shipping about only 6.9 million GPUs (which is 0.5 million less than similar periods in 2023 and 1.5 million less than peak 2024). This resulted in NVIDIA's share dropping to 82% from 90%, while AMD shares increased to 17% from 10%.
Die Grafikchip- und Grafikkarten-Marktanteile im vierten Quartal 2024 | 3DCenter.org
Gemäß den Marktforschern von Jon Peddie Research haben die Grafikchip-Entwickler im vierten Quartal des letzten Jahres 8,4 Millionen Grafikchips für Desktop-Grafikkarten abgesetzt, gezählt unabhängig des Segments (Consumer oder Profi), aber rein für
Oh, I meant the bolded part of the statement since it wasn't anywhere in the links he provided nor does it match the supposed "estimates" shown by MS.
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