Very Wii-ish. I think that's going to be the major barrier. No-one's going to create a big, meaningful VR experience where the VR is necessary because the market is too small. And with nothing but demos and curios, there's little reason to invest lots in getting VR enabled. Very chicken and egg and I can't see anything that'll turn that around. Not even Sony are going to back VR with the necessary investment (turn a dozen studios to creating VR only AAA content) so reason to own VR is very limited.
Maybe it'll be non-gaming VR experiences that'll be necessary to drive adoption, and when (if) there's a large enough install base, then the games can come?
That's definitely the vibe I've been getting ever since the Vive and Rift launched. I was keeping an eye on PSVR to see if the trajectory would change dramatically with its launch, but it doesn't appear to be the case. Prior to PSVR launch I was thinking it would more closely match the Wii's fad trajectory with a 2-3 year period of being the thing to get among techies and semi-techies, but after it launched I'm thinking it may be much shorter lived.
The cost investment is just far too high for the experience as it currently exists.
Paradoxically, I think it not only needs to get much better (hardware and software) but it also needs to get significantly cheaper (~99 USD or so) if it wants to have a chance of attaining critical mass and becoming as ubiquitous to gaming as say an aftermarket controller.
If it's going to cost more than ~99 USD, then it needs to be a self contained console/device that doesn't require an additional PC or console, IMO.
Who will invest in it over the years needed? Who's going to say, "consumers aren't interested in this and there's no money in it, but we'll keep investing heavily until one day it does become something people actually want"?
Currently only Facebook and Sony appear to be investing much. Valve/HTC are lagging significantly behind both of them WRT to funding the games that are needed to drive adoption. I have a feeling that Facebook are more invested in it than Sony are.
And you never know the independent PC development scene may come up with something that catches the general publics imagination, which may in turn prompt larger publishers to invest more into copying it. Long shot there though if the current state of indie VR development is anything to go by (most of it is just quick and dirty shovelware on Steam to try to take advantage of the VR hype). Not to say there are some gems, but nothing that's making people want to go out and try to get all their friends to get VR so they can experience it as well.
And that last point is important. I'm hearing more and more from a lot of current and former VR advocates that while they think VR is game changing, they can't in good conscience tell anyone to go out and buy a VR headset currently. The investment is too high (even for PSVR) and the potential return in terms of gaming experience is too small.
I'm waiting to see if the upcoming cheaper Windows OEM VR headsets will change anything, but I don't think it'll change things much.
Regards,
SB
