well there's also another aspect to it; your leak may never get published or it takes a very very long time for it to be published.
Baseless Next Generation Rumors with no Technical Merits [post E3 2019, pre GDC 2020] [XBSX, PS5]
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Silent_Buddha
Legend
And here we go in circles. This mini-thread started with a post that contained ballpark figures. Which then was criticized for not having a stated speed instead of a ballpark number. Reasons for not having a stated speed given. Now we're back to the best bet is to give ballpark figures.
Pre-release speculation craziness in a nutshell.
But it's still interesting to watch from the perspective of not caring what the numbers are. The ebb and flow of people either parroting information they claim is true because it matches their beliefs versus arguing against information that they claim is false because it doesn't match their belief.
I feel like I'm in church/mosque/temple/druid grove/etc.
Note - that's different from the people arguing the merits of various information leaks versus making claims of truth or not truth. Which is, of course why this circus of a thread exists.
Regards,
SB
Was that ballpark figure from a source everyone could accept as connected and unbiased? It's the difference between an odd looking gentleman shouting on the streets that aliens have infiltrated government, versus an award winning and proven investigative journalist saying the same. Without hard evidence, you are reliant on reputation to be heard.And here we go in circles. This mini-thread started with a post that contained ballpark figures. Which then was criticized for not having a stated speed instead of a ballpark number. Reasons for not having a stated speed given. Now we're back to the best bet is to give ballpark figures.
You are wasting your energy. Mods are deleting posts that don't fit their narrative. I am done wasting my time.
Well, report the posts because I don't have time to waste delving into the baseless thread for police work. (or ignore the offenders to prevent stirring up more noise based on noise because noise for noise sake)
Again, better things to do with my time than give people so much attention just because of a disagreement over rumours. If you want to focus more on the technical side of a particular rumour, by all means (plausible hypotheticals and such? idk. It's speculation).
I can't tell you how to write, but being antagonistic isn't helping, even if it's a baseless thread.
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I agree. I've considered two different threads, with one policed better for open-ended discussion, but it'd be a lot of work. At the end of the day, no opinions expressed here matter, and if some like to keep repeating their mantra ad nauseum, feel free to ignore them. Proper discussion about next gen can be conducted in the Tech forum around particular theories without recourse to lean on internet rumour-mongers.
For those for whom these rumours matter and who are very vocal in their support of a viewport, there will be a reckoning when the truth outs. Much humble pie will be served up somewhere or other.
D
Deleted member 13524
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Another possibility:
1 - leaker A presents his specs and proof towards DigitalFoundry;
2 - DigitalFoundry confirms the proof and asks Sony for comments before publishing the article;
3 - Sony confirms specs but kindly asks DigitalFoundry not to publish them, in exchange for being in their good graces and claims the specs are almost out anyway;
4 - DF doesn't publish the specs.
How about a baseless insider thread?
This all funny. I don't know why anyone puts any stock into a console rumor. You don't get paid for it. Your life doesn't depend on it. And when its all said and done you will have concrete info well before its time to purchase.
So why become emotionally invested and argue over it? Just speculate based off the multiple realities these rumors create. And eliminate possible realities as more concrete info becomes available.
Probably the real reason no one really knows the exact specs is because Sony/MS doesn't stamp the specs on any documentation on these early dev kits. Unless you benchmark the hell out of it with the intent of parsing out such info how would you know the Tflops of the hardware?
So why become emotionally invested and argue over it? Just speculate based off the multiple realities these rumors create. And eliminate possible realities as more concrete info becomes available.
Probably the real reason no one really knows the exact specs is because Sony/MS doesn't stamp the specs on any documentation on these early dev kits. Unless you benchmark the hell out of it with the intent of parsing out such info how would you know the Tflops of the hardware?
"target specs for PS5 have been high 10tf to low 11tf for a while, including their more final dev kit."
This effectively indicates 11TF of PS5 devkit with margin of error less than 3%. Imo it's precise enough.
I think the only "correct" way be a journalist is to get independent corroboration from their own contact before publishing. Otherwise either they don't talk about it, or they present it as a hypothetical "what would it mean if it was true, and is it any likely, and why". And clearly mention they could not corroborate the rumor.
In all cases, they are required to reach for comments even if they almost always get nothing. Once in a while they get a direct denial, or a hint, or some pointers to avoid publishing a false claim. For the company it's a fine line between not commenting on any rumors and speculation, and preventing a journalist from publishing falsehood having a negative impact on the company. They must avoid being played, where no comment would be decoded as a yes.
once you go into step 1: you've relinquished all control over what you sent.
I mean, it's up to you if you want to shop it around to other journalists.
Many folks won't publish what you have just because you gave it to them either. the quality could be either too low or it's information they already have but need other things to corroborate it.
Sorry I don’t follow...
I cancelled my planned holiday in 2019 so I could save more money and make my trip better.
what’s the difference?
Metal_Spirit
Regular
Lets imagine this scenario, that can be extrapolated from Matt's words.
Sony uses a diferent RT solution. It's questions are not random, but directed at AMD's and DXR weak spots that sony has covered.
In that case, Sony does not require RDNA 2, but a custom RDNA with RDNA 2 advantages, locking the CU count at 40.
This would give credit to Oberon and Ariel, and The Github leak.
36 active CU at 2 Ghz for 9.2 Tflops and no RT (external solution).
Now let's imagine Sony presents this... Most people will look at that and say... WOA. 30% diference. Sony is doomed!
But is it? And is the performance advantage really on Microsoft's size?
RT is heavy... It has a huge hit on performance. Nvidia losses 40% performance at 1440p.
Is AMD solution really better?
And how is Sony solution diferent?
How many Rays can the Microsoft solution shoot? And how many can the Sony solution?
Will transparencies have the same hit on performance on both solutions or one is better that the other?
What about multi bounce?
And other capabilities. Are they similar?
What about cache penalties and bandwidth usage?
I guess that is what Matt is trying to say. Next gen consoles are not all about Tflops. And if Sony can have 9.2 Tflops available for rasterizing with RT running in paralell, I cannot say for shure the 12 Tflops from XsX divided between Ray Tracing and rasterizarion is superior.
It may be... it may not be! But for shure it's not the Tflops count that are going to tell me that!
Sony may had not known what Microsoft used for RT in it´s console, but she shure knew what AMD had to offer. She is an AMD client and all her tecnology portfolio was available to Sony. It is not logic that if you choose an external solution you would go for something inferior to what you could have indoors, changing to RDNA 2. And sony choose to delay the PS5 in 2017. 3 years before the console launch date! There was more than enough time to change to RDNA 2.
I belive this is why Matt is going for such precise questions. Those are some of the situations that Sony analised and weighted on the decision to go for another solution. Weak points on AMD RT DXR solution.
This falls in line with the more recent rumours that Sony had better RT, and above all, it kills all Tflops comparison. Tflops measure only rasterizing and GPGPU capabilities, and these consoles have far more to offer than that!
So, is a 9.2 Tflops GPU inferior to a 12 Tflops GPU. Yes!
But is a 9.2 Tflops GPU with a paralell RT processor inferior to a 12 Tflops GPU that needs to divide it´s power for RT and Rasterizing?
I cannot answer that. I would need benchmarks, or real world performance. But one thing remains as a possibility. The PS5 can have less Tflops and even so, better performance!
Sony uses a diferent RT solution. It's questions are not random, but directed at AMD's and DXR weak spots that sony has covered.
In that case, Sony does not require RDNA 2, but a custom RDNA with RDNA 2 advantages, locking the CU count at 40.
This would give credit to Oberon and Ariel, and The Github leak.
36 active CU at 2 Ghz for 9.2 Tflops and no RT (external solution).
Now let's imagine Sony presents this... Most people will look at that and say... WOA. 30% diference. Sony is doomed!
But is it? And is the performance advantage really on Microsoft's size?
RT is heavy... It has a huge hit on performance. Nvidia losses 40% performance at 1440p.
Is AMD solution really better?
And how is Sony solution diferent?
How many Rays can the Microsoft solution shoot? And how many can the Sony solution?
Will transparencies have the same hit on performance on both solutions or one is better that the other?
What about multi bounce?
And other capabilities. Are they similar?
What about cache penalties and bandwidth usage?
I guess that is what Matt is trying to say. Next gen consoles are not all about Tflops. And if Sony can have 9.2 Tflops available for rasterizing with RT running in paralell, I cannot say for shure the 12 Tflops from XsX divided between Ray Tracing and rasterizarion is superior.
It may be... it may not be! But for shure it's not the Tflops count that are going to tell me that!
Sony may had not known what Microsoft used for RT in it´s console, but she shure knew what AMD had to offer. She is an AMD client and all her tecnology portfolio was available to Sony. It is not logic that if you choose an external solution you would go for something inferior to what you could have indoors, changing to RDNA 2. And sony choose to delay the PS5 in 2017. 3 years before the console launch date! There was more than enough time to change to RDNA 2.
I belive this is why Matt is going for such precise questions. Those are some of the situations that Sony analised and weighted on the decision to go for another solution. Weak points on AMD RT DXR solution.
This falls in line with the more recent rumours that Sony had better RT, and above all, it kills all Tflops comparison. Tflops measure only rasterizing and GPGPU capabilities, and these consoles have far more to offer than that!
So, is a 9.2 Tflops GPU inferior to a 12 Tflops GPU. Yes!
But is a 9.2 Tflops GPU with a paralell RT processor inferior to a 12 Tflops GPU that needs to divide it´s power for RT and Rasterizing?
I cannot answer that. I would need benchmarks, or real world performance. But one thing remains as a possibility. The PS5 can have less Tflops and even so, better performance!
I don't get the hatred towards the GitHub leak lol. It definitely was a real test on a Sony APU but it also doesn't completely rule out Sony having a higher CU count. It was one test and there certainly could be other tests that were not leaked that showed Sony have 48 CU(or insert whatever CU count you like
No one hates the github leak. They hate the people who insist it DOES rule out a higher CU count when it does no such thing.
His emotional investment is completely justified annoyance at the github acolytes.
I think the human psychology here is more one of not tolerating what one considers to be 'stupid'. It's not that different to some of those members we've had with crazy ideas, and they share them too much, and we just want them to stop; let's say Wii is using POWER7, and linking to all sorts of evidence that Wii is using POWER7, and we just cry. Only in this case, what one person considers stupid, another considers plausible. The "you're stupid" party feels the need to silence the stupid talk, and the more open-minded feel a need to silence the dissenters trying to silence them. It ends up being personal as parties try to preserve the level of discussion they are after.
Moderation should be facilitating this better, but I dunno what to do. Numerous requests for people to relax and let the discussion continue hasn't worked. I'm not comfortable with thread bans, nor closing the thread, and spawning a second thread with different, clearly-defined values is too much work at this point. I think, for me at least, this train-wreck will just be allowed to crash horribly against the eventual PS5 reveal, and lessons will be learned on the next bout of rumours if that ever happens. Likelihood is next-gen will be such a snore-fest we won't have to worry about rumours.
There's a slight difference in the fact that you are in control of your own vacation, he is not in control of what Sony does, nor does he know exactly what Sony has planned. His information can be dated, yours is always current.
I find his comments contradictory:
o'dium - verified developer at resetera said:
Man, the 9tf dream is years old. Sony ditched that a long time ago. That was their original plan, to release a 9tf machine sometime in 2019. But those plans changed in 2018, so they could release a faster unit in 2020. They have had a while to work on things, it’s not a last minute change. People need to let go of the 9tf stuff, it’s pure fantasy.
- The way he ends with 'pure fantasy' raised a red flag for me because he had just wrote that 9TF system was real the sentence before.
- So if I'm following along, it's not fantasy at all, at one point in time it was pure reality according to him.
- That's unfortunate because we can prove that because Github leaks indicate exactly that and this is information coming from him after the fact
- This leads me to ask: so why deep into 2019 is Sony still testing this expired 2018 chip?
- I'm going to ignore my bias against the fact that I don't believe many studios would be peddling this type of information around, strategic insights into Sony would usually be 1 degree from Cerny.
- But it's also clear his contact to the PS5 kit is not direct. Nor does he have direct 1 degree access from Cerny; so how would a studio go about knowing so much about what Sony is trying to do with it's hardware
- Where i worked they just gave us a kit, not a story to go along with it.
2) But those plans changed in 2018, so they could release a faster unit in 2020
It's based upon how you read this sentence.
1) if you use could as the past tense of can, then this is a statement, the statement being they changed the plans in 2018 so that they can release a newer more powerful model in 2020.
2) if you read it another way: the plans changed in 2018, so they _could_ (as in possibility) release a faster unit in 2020 - and since he's not exactly sure about the concrete values, he doesn't know how the values have changed. That doesn't mean they built a ground up new chip. It could just mean clocking or thermal changes, which he talks about, which is talked about by others before his post.
I'm not saying his information is bad though;I'm not going to judge people who want their box to be the most powerful etc.
I just wished it was posted on DF or DF made these announcements. I would have way less questions than I do now about it.
frankly, from my own perpsective, I put datamined sources at the top. They have much higher credibility rating when ti comes to this type of stuff. Lots of announcements get ruined in this way.
But, personally the whole spec discussion is boring, no matter how much we talk about it, it's not going to change the final output. Even MisterXMedia eventually gave up years after launch. Right, you know what i mean? its just a waste of everyone's times and emotions to fight over something that is coming in 7 months or so and at this point in time configurations are locked and manufacturing will begin.
The only announcements on specs that matter are official ones at this point in time.
I'd rather see more rumours around platform and services. That's the type of stuff that will really bring about big changes to the consumer experience.
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If someone wants to buy in to the github leak 100%, who gives a shit? Person A says it's wrong and PS5 is X. Person B says no it's what's in the leak. Neither of these opinions matter. It's a videogame player, and the official specs will come out eventually. If someone ends up being wrong, it doesn't matter, unless they were being an asshole about it. Then we'll all laugh at them after the fact. It's fun to bounce opinions back and forth, but if people are getting defensive about their positions then it's probably time to put their big boy pants on and step away.
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