Acert93 said:
I think the Xenon looks VERY promising, but MS has some big hurdles. And release early means nothing if they pull a Sega DC.
Launching early is no guarantee for sucess. But the DC was crashed because of the wake of horrid Sega launches (32X, Sega CD, GameGear, Nomad, and a strong SS start that fizzled out) caught up with Sega and had hurt consumer confidence because they were coming out with machines too often that flopped with marginal support and also the promises from Sony that the PS2 would be night-and-day better. (Btw, I like the DC as a game console, just being honest). Obviously MS is not in this position, and if they can somehow get backwards compatibility to work then I think they would be in a good position.
I agree with most of your post however I just wanted to say something about Saturn and DC life cycles in Europe and the USA since both consoles enjoyed a slighly extended life cycle in Japan as far as games being launched. One of the things that really killed the Saturn, aside from all of the initial "nightmare to program" problems was that there was a combination of things working against SEGA since Sony secured multi year exclusivity with some game titles (Tomb Raider 2-3, etc) alot of leaked details reguarding DC (probably due to internet's speed in delivering news), in late 1997, alot of 3d parties were dropping Saturn just as the SEGA SDKs were improving, and I believe that when SEGA hired ex-Sony Bernie Stolar he hit the nail in the Saturn's coffin way too prematurely when he announced way too many ealry next console details, made some stupid comments about RPGs, etc.
The other thing was that the N64 had alot of million selling games so in retrospect it is my opinion that some devs wanted to focus on PSX and N64 if they could afford to even though SEGA's SDKs were improving and powerfull peripherals like the 4MB expansion cart were going to be released but was most likely being assumed that it would not catch on as Netlink and other SEGA peripherals had failed. (IMO because there were too many)
Then with DC coming out in the wake of Saturn's premature death, it basically gave fuel to the doubter to basically either take a "wait and see" attitude or just take a "its gonna fail so don't buy it" mentality and give the anti-DC hype alot of fuel. Finally Sony's PS2 hype was huge and the console's night and day was mainly that it was also a DVD player, a major nail to make SEGA DC a very possible failiure back then prior to the US and Europe launch.
If the PS3 is significantly more powerful than the Xenon and Sony is able to (a) make MS look bad for having such a short product life cycle with the Xbox and (b) make consumers feel the forth coming PS3 is a better value and will have better games, I think it could be bad for MS.
Although MS may not have SEGA's history, its almost too easy for history to repeat itself with MS instead of SEGA, even if XBox Next lasts more than 4 years than DC. Its possible that with all of this leaked info, and worse if it becomes reality that soon, that it will really hurt MS just like SEGA was and leave the road clear for Sony to be handed the checkered flag before the engines start or at least after one lap.
As for the better games part, I feel that it will really be the games that will be wanted but then again if EA (since they have history making exclusives contracts) decides to not support XBox Next, or favors PS3 over XN then its DC to PS2 again sooner.
Yeah, now we are talking! Although Rare is slow, I do not think they are as slow as they have been recently. I think PD and another title (the Kameo title?) would almost be givens. They spent $300 for a reason! If the pop in an updated version of Halo 2 as a packin ontop of a grear release, or even a MP sampler / demo of what Halo 3 (which would release when the PS3 does in 2006) then watch out!
I think that RARE being slow is really too early to tell, even though the purchase was so long ago. If we look back at RARE on N64, they released alot of games around the same time each year, I feel that the same would have happened if they would have stayed on GC because like N64 they had access to SDKs earlier.
With XBox, they had to transition from whatever they were working on GC to learning the XBox so that their games would maintain the quality and so far, its better to wait for RARE just like some people like waiting for John Carmack (not me, RARE yes, Id no)
We still don't know what RARE may reveal for 2005, if its just Conker then its over, but if its Kameo, Conker and something else, then they may be up to speed and when XN is released they will be in their groove or zone again.
Again, I don't mind that maybe MS prefers RARE to focus more on Xbox Next more than XBox because lets face it, the XBox does have some major flaws with all of that power, the worst one being the image color rendering quality due to the Nvidia GPU, with ATI that won't be a problem. Also as there may be some games that RARE could do better with a much better platform than XBox, probably Killer Instict Next in real time with DX 10? 3d features.[/quote]