Will Sony Be The "Next SEGA"?

[bigsilly]

Hi! Looks like my first post on this subject was deleted with the forum crash...

Anyway, what I mean to ask is, will be the next to be forced out of console hardware development?

Let me preface by saying that I have no "allegiances" in the console world, and think that such things are silly. I am asking my question out of curiosity, as an outsider, admittedly ignorant of much of the recent console industry (until about two weeks ago, the newest console in my posession was a SegaCD/32x).

Anyway, I keep reading on all the game websites, and even hearing/seeing on the television news, that Sony's PS3 is doing terribly. I get the impression that far fewer games are being released for it than for X-Box360 or even Wii. While I never owned a PS1/PS2, I had friends who did, and I was always amazed by the huge libraries of varied games they had, and the very straightforward way in which their console operated (much in contradistinction to my experiences with my X-Box, which will not let me play online without a subscription card nor play DVD's without buying a remote!) So I certainly do not delight in Sony's misfortune, as I think they've made good products.

I probably won't buy into this generation of consoles, but I might buy into the next one, so I'm curious -- could this be Sony's last console?

What chance have they of bouncing back? And by that I mean, HOW can it happen for them? What would they have to do? Are they likely to manage it? I must admit that faced with the prospect of Microsoft buying-up the third party-developers, I can't imagine how Sony could regain the same kind of dynamism that they had with their first two systems.

Or was the blunder bad enough that it's all over for them? Again, the impression that I get from the news media and gaming sites is that there's a mere trickle of games being released for PS3, while floods are being released for X-Box360 and Wii. It's that impression that prompts my questions and the terms in which I am putting them. I am not trying to assert a viewpoint or to start an argument.


Thanks!!

 

[PARANOiA]

I would have thought the poor response it got the first time would have given you a hint

Short answer: no.

 

[nintenho]

A. Sony's a large company and while the playstation brand is their most important branch, one bad year isn't going to kill them.

B. Sega did a lot mistakes for about a decade after the Gensis/SNES generation. They released too many add-ons which confused the fans *insert 3 foot tall add-ons picture* and I think the Saturn was harder to develop for than the N64 and PS1 plus it was designed for 2D graphics, not to say it wasn't capable of good 3D graphics but it's strength was in 2D graphics and I believe most games that generation were 3D.

C. Sony gets a lot of bad press because it was by far the leader last generation and now they stumbled a little in the first year. A lot of people forget that that WASN'T because of the playstation brand name alone that PS2 sold so much. I think in the first year before gamecube and xbox came out, PS2 only sold about 9 million consoles but then it got up to around 100 million before 360 launched. That's because it has games. I think I heard that the reason developers made games for PS2 was that Sony took a low royalty percentage and I believe the low royalties still apply plus Sony's doing a lot to help developers use Cell.

Basically, no there is no way to compare Sony to Sega. They're getting a little bad press but they're not doing anything similar.

 

[bigsilly]

I would have thought the poor response it got the first time would have given you a hint

Short answer: no.

I did not see any of the responses that it got before the crash. If it got a "poor response", I hope maybe by now people have calmed down and would be mature in replying!

Ok Nintenho! So you think that within a year or two many more games will start to be released?

 

[woundingchaney]

I personally cant see it happening in any scenario. What I do think is potentially possible is Sony restructuring the PS3 line and perhaps making different business moves in regards to the Playstation brand itself.

 

[Arwin]

Nobody will be the next Sega. I recommend that this topic is moved to a different website.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

One year into PS3 and you're already suggesting Sony quit? People suggested Nintendo should give up after last gen when they only got a quarter of Sony's install base (and were profitable with it), but they're still with us, in a big way. If ever there was reason to not pursue the console market, losing billions in chasing it is that reason, but it hasn't stopped MS. Why would Sony, the most successful console company of all time in terms of revenue and install base, commanding an ascendency SEGA could never had dreamt of, want to stop now? The idea that less than a year into the life cycle Sony should be thinking about throwing in the towel is ridiculous.

What needs to happen for Sony to bounce back? They need a lower price and more software. Is that going to happen? Yes! Will Sony 'win' the console 'war' buy selling more than everyone else? Possibly not. Is not being number one reason to give up? No! Especially if the product turns into something very profitable by helping to establish both your HD format and an online content distribution network, or laying the foundation for a new generation of hardware that won't be such a pain to develop for and will feature an economy derived from a groundwork of scalable architecture.

If you applied the same mentality to sports as they do console companies, you'd expect almost every football team to give up and leave the top 4 to battle it out. Chelsea would have closed shop by now because they've had a bad run.

I think you're hearing a much blacker representation than the truth, such is the want of the media to polarize reality.

 

[Geoson]

There is no way Sony will quit gaming altogether. Ok, let's say PS3 is doing poorly. But you're forgetting the fast growing PSP handheld market that they have this year. With the launch of FF7: Crisis Core, PSP sales easily surpassed NDS sales and the trend may continue further on with the newly redesigned slim PSP. That alone will nab them millions of dollars. So even if PS3 had a bad start, Sony won't be giving up on the Playstation brand. Furthermore, more games are coming out for the PS3 next year. Metal Gear Solid 4, Killzone 2, Soul Calibur 4, Tekken 6, Devil May Cry 4...etc. Although some of those aforementioned games are not exclusives, they can still drive system sales. And MGS4, Killzone 2 are exclusives...those alone will sell consoles. I think Killzone 2 got a test run and the game editors that played them came out impressed. Not only the graphics are a notch above everything else currently offered by consoles, it has a pretty strong story and multiplayer aspect. I can see Killzone 2 will fare much better than its predecessor Killzone on the PS2. PS3 simply will not fail like the dreamcast since it's got the backing of games and its strength is graphics. It can compare with the 360 and maybe even surpass it. Since it has the better processor for a lot of things like physics. Sometimes, pretty graphics are not enough, you need animation, physics to make it believable. The last thing I want to see is the character in FFXIII walking like a robot.

 

[assen]

With the launch of FF7: Crisis Core, PSP sales easily surpassed NDS sales and the trend may continue further on with the newly redesigned slim PSP.

Look at the Japanese sales again. The slim/lite/crisis core bump in sales is over, the numbers have slumped again.

PS3 simply will not fail like the dreamcast since it's got the backing of games and its strength is graphics.

For the first year or so, the Dreamcast had an edge in graphics, and most Dreamcast fans will tell you it always had the edge in games.

It can compare with the 360 and maybe even surpass it. Since it has the better processor for a lot of things like physics. Sometimes, pretty graphics are not enough, you need animation, physics to make it believable. The last thing I want to see is the character in FFXIII walking like a robot.

The 360 has more than enough CPU power to handle one or several characters with great animation and physics, so FFXIII will be safe there. (This is probably true even for the Wii, if we're only talking animation + e.g. cloth simulation, not complex lighting and materials.)

The PS3 will have an obvious advantage if somebody comes up with a game design that requires great animation/physics/AI on hundreds or thousands of characters. (Sorry, Dynasty Warriors-type of games aren't this "Cell holy grail".)

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Please don't endeavour to discuss which console is 'better'. Regards the topic, 'better' is irrelevant. The question raised is if Sony are going to give up. If the thread turns into a comparison it'll get locked up tout-suite!

Anyone wanting to continue this topic needs to contribute the opposite view to the defence already presented - present an argument as to why Sony are going to throw in the towel after 10 months on the shelves, basing their desire to quit not on the massive success of two previous consoles and a healthy hand-held that is the only machine ever to compete with Nintendo in that market, both developed by a division that has sustained Sony's profitability for years, but only on the anticipated long-term failure of only their most recent effort and/or the recent expenses SCE has incurred, or a shock decision by management.

 

[cthellis42]

Please don't endeavour to discuss which console is 'better'. Regards the topic, 'better' is irrelevant. The question raised is if Sony are going to give up. If the thread turns into a comparison it'll get locked up tout-suite!

Besides, everyone knows the best console company was Atari. Sure, the Jaguar seems to have suffered... but they're just putting everyone off-guard for their triumphant return!!

 

[borowki]

There might no next console generation, period. The PC will conquer all.

 

[bigsilly]

Some of you are making assumptions about my intentions in posting... I never "suggested that Sony should quit." :/ I was just trying to get more balanced information, because what I've heard so far (just from mainstream news/videogame media) has painted a bleak picture. If you think it necessary to "prove me wrong", you are missing the point.

Microsoft seems to have many X-Box/PC-specific developers, through contracting. Does Sony have any at this point?

 

[woundingchaney]

Some of you are making assumptions about my intentions in posting... I never "suggested that Sony should quit." :/ I was just trying to get more balanced information, because what I've heard so far (just from mainstream news/videogame media) has painted a bleak picture. If you think it necessary to "prove me wrong", you are missing the point.

Microsoft seems to have many X-Box/PC-specific developers, through contracting. Does Sony have any at this point?

Not that I know of they have maybe one or two timed exclusives through pc dev/devs (UT3 for example).


Its a different mentality between MS and Sony. Sony typically keeps exclusive titles in house or close to their breast (2nd party) while MS contracts and publishes many of their exclusives through various developers and considerably less in house studios (and seemingly willing to allow them to disband or go freelance). With MS being so dominant in the PC arena as well as the console having a very "western" appeal its a logical match up with MS and "pc devs".

 

[Skrying]

Will Sony be the next Sega? No. Will Sony ever dominate the console market again? No.

Sony having many in house and close developers is kind of ironic in light of what situation they are in now. Their new brings in have produced less than impressive results so far, IMO.

 

[Deepak]

Will Sony be the next Sega? No. Will Sony ever dominate the console market again? No.

You mean this generation..? Yeah they probably 'll not "dominate" this generation, no-one'll I think. Though this gen is still anybody's game, nothing can be ruled out. It is like a test match...fortunes can swing either way.

 

[standing ovation]

There are parallels. Sony is hemorrhaging yen, like Sega back in the day. And both companies have top brass that refuse to work together.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Some of you are making assumptions about my intentions in posting... I never "suggested that Sony should quit." :/ I was just trying to get more balanced information...

Then you should have chosen a question that wasn't so loaded! "What's the current state of the console companies? From what I hear, Sony lacks both exclusives and momentum," is a lot more balanced starting point for someone genuinely wanting a Reader's Digest of the state of play than "Are Sony the next SEGA and going to give up on consoles altogether?" which is what you said. The simile used is bogus, like people calling the XB360 'the next Dreamcast' by making strained associations between platforms.

because what I've heard so far (just from mainstream news/videogame media) has painted a bleak picture. If you think it necessary to "prove me wrong", you are missing the point.

Surely our point has to be to 'prove you wrong'? If your purpose is to gather information, and that information is such as it shows your current understanding is incorrect, than the intention of any reply must surely be proving you wrong. If someone were to post "I've heard the world is flat. Is this true?" it would be the intention of respondents (on the whole ) to prove them wrong in that idea!

Microsoft seems to have many X-Box/PC-specific developers, through contracting. Does Sony have any at this point?

In some cases Microsoft have funded titles clearly evidenced by them being the publisher, but we aren't normally privy to deals MS (or the other companies) strike up, and it's just assumed because of economics that all 3rd party exclusives are paid for somehow. However we don't know for sure where MS are spending their money, and that's not the sole reason to develop on PC and XB360. If you're creating a game using XNA and DirectX for XB360, and already have the assets, building an engine with the same tools to run on PC with the same assets isn't a tall order and provides you an extra...tens of millions of potential customers. Makes sense. Creating a PS3 port is a lot more hassle and its not surprising if with the current install base and attach rates, some developers think it's not worthwhile. Larger devs are aiming for cross-platform though, and from the outset this gen many have been expecting most (pretty much all 3rd party) titles to be cross-platform, assuming no runaway sales-king like PS2 was. Evidence of this is titles that were XB360 exclusive and have or are being ported, such as Lost Planet and Eternal Sonata. Even Square Enix has bought into UE3 for the purpose of creating cross-platform titles.

It's also far from one-way in the exclusives front. Sony have lots of their own studios for starters, and despite having a smaller user-base have not only kept some major titles PS3 exclusive but have still managed to attract exclusivity from some quarters, such as NCSoft saying they're only intending to develop on PS3 as a console because of the network structure Sony have chosen. Or Rockstar's new franchise now that they're finishing with GTA being PS3 exclusive. Or L.A. Noire, begun as a Sony funded projected, dropped by Sony and reported as multi-platform, returning to being PS3 exclusive (as of this point). Again, we never get details of money changing hands to secure titles or pay for more, and its down to personal cynicism what explanation for platform exclusivity you want to subscribe to

The short of it is, there's lots of games coming to PS3, most being cross-platform, with a noteworthy spread of exclusives both from Sony's own stables and other developers, covering a wide range of tastes and genres. Sales aren't fantastic relative to the other platforms, but in console terms they're not diabolical either, and considering the price you could even say they're pretty damned good! The platform has just received a significant price drop and although still expensive by console standards, could experience much better long-term sales, along with a slowly-but-surely improving software line-up. I think some armchair analysts seem to rate this Christmas as 'death-or-glory' and the following years won't matter, so a weaker line-up for PS3 than XB360 now means death and disaster, but that's short-sighted. Reminds me of the Rugby World-cup match, England versus Australia, when after a fluke try by England in the first 90 seconds, commentators were suggesting Australia were in real trouble. By half-time they were winning and the commentators looked idiots, like they do. My, how they prattle on! There's no clear-cut resolution to this generation of consoles; it could go any way. You can't apply a Newtonian cause-and-effect reasoning to determine long-term sales, such as 'most games are cross-platform and XB360 plays them better and is cheaper, thus PS3 won't sell'. There are lots of factors at play. The only clear thing is, in response to your query, it would take a HUGE disaster for Sony to give up on ten years of unprecedented success and profitability. We're talking meteors hitting all their manufacturing plants, a virus wiping all their data and backups so they have to start from scratch, and a plane disaster killing half their engineering personnel. If you didn't pay attention to the last two generations of consoles, perhaps this isn't obvious to you, but if you understand that, asking if Sony will give up now is like asking if Brazil will stop competing in the football World Cup because they didn't win it last time (an idea that only someone without athe most rudimentary understanding of Football could entertain!)

 

[Arwin]

Come on ... Sony has this:

 

[assen]

OK, back on topic:

I'm fairly confident Sony won't "dominate" this generation, and I even think it won't come close to being first.

But I can't see how can anyone speak with certainty about the generation after that. If Sony launches the PS4 a year earlier than the competition, at $249 or at most $299, with a machine which is similar to the PS3 so developers can carry over their expertise, they have all the chance in the world to pull a PS2 again, and coming late with more powerful hardware won't save Microsoft. They can probably extend the Cell with more PPUs, SPUs and LS, they won't need anything more in terms of storage beyond Blu-ray which they will have perfected by then, and if a GPU as generic, off-the-shelf and closed to the developers as RSX serves them this generation, I don't think they will have any problems in securing a successor. And the promise of easy transition to PS4 down the road might be a carrot waved before developers to convince them to invest in PS3-specific engines.

Of course, pulling off something like this successfully will require massive finances and ego-swallowing; the ten-year platform slogan will have to go the way of the find-two-jobs-to-afford-it, 5-million-without-any-games pearls of wisdom of the past. But with all those adorable balls, paint fountains and play-do bunnies at their side I'm not too worried about their finances