Will M$ be able "dominate" console market ?

[BenSkywalker]

when did nintendo become a monopoly ?

1986, there are people that don't know that? Nintendo was a monopoly for many years, some of the tactics they used during that time period are a good chunk of the reason why they still aren't a monopoly.

To the point of if MS can dominate the console market, quite easily(comparitively) if they really wanted to, the bigger question is how badly do they want to?

With ~$40Billion to throw around they could acquire Take2 easily and in early '04(after cancelling development on all PS2 titles) have the XBox with GTA3, GTA VC, and GTA4 packed in for $99 for starters. They could acquire Blizzard, Acclaim, Activision and EA and make all of their titles XBox exclusive and then start moving to acquire the Japanese development houses through the market. They could gobble up nearly all of the major publishers and development houses in a fairly short amount of time if they really wanted to.

That of course would require the XBox team to be handed the keys to the MS war chest and told to go nuts which won't happen, but MS is capable of it if they set their mind to do it.

The only way in which I can see them getting nearly that agressive is if Sony tried to move in to their territory(Nintendo either, although we know that won't happen).. Will they kill off the other two? Possibly Sony, I can see Nintendo surviving on their own without any real 3rd party support(they have already proven it possible, while turning a profit with the N64).

 

[Gubbi]

If MS eventually wants to give away a free Xbox with every Hotmail account, then more power to them.

some ppl have problems with some company using its monopolistic position to create another monopoly.

its funny that you say this inlight of the fact that Nintendo was sued recently for market malpractice.

when did nintendo become a monopoly ?

The didn't, but they were recently fined €170M by the EU for business practices in the 90s

Cheers
Gubbi

 

[Legion]

as what you are saying now is laughable.

you are speaking like a parrot.
please shut up.

i guess i shouldn't care about what a dumb animal could say..

and of course you can't seem to establish your point was any more valid than mine. Please learn to accept other's opinions.

 

[Magnum PI]

i'm amazed there are still fools or ignorants to deny the microsoft monopoly.. even the US DOJ recognized that.

nintendo never was a monopoly

MS became a monopoly because of the success of the IBM PC and the fact they licensed the OS to IBM.

then they used this monopoly to try to leverage other monopolies like in the productivity field.
never heard about secret windows APIs that MS office developper knew but that developpers of concurrent products didn't have knowledge of ?
never heard about AARD code ?
and about MS attitude towards open standards (claiming to embrace them, but add proprietary extensions, making its product ininteroperable with other..)
they were once again proven guilty in the java case..

about nintendo being a monopoly..

during a time they had dominant position in the industry, but it's not enough in order to be a monopoly. one proof of that: it didn't prevent other contenders entering and succeeding..

nintendo couldn't be considered as a monopoly, as sony can't be considered as a monopoly now, despite their strong leadership.

 

[Magnum PI]

To the point of if MS can dominate the console market, quite easily(comparitively) if they really wanted to, the bigger question is how badly do they want to?

With ~$40Billion to throw around they could acquire Take2 easily and in early '04(after cancelling development on all PS2 titles) have the XBox with GTA3, GTA VC, and GTA4 packed in for $99 for starters. They could acquire Blizzard, Acclaim, Activision and EA and make all of their titles XBox exclusive and then start moving to acquire the Japanese development houses through the market. They could gobble up nearly all of the major publishers and development houses in a fairly short amount of time if they really wanted to.

that reminds me they tried to buy nintendo and sega.

that's what we know. how much other companies did they try or are they trying to buy ?

That of course would require the XBox team to be handed the keys to the MS war chest and told to go nuts which won't happen, but MS is capable of it if they set their mind to do it.

even with 40 billions in cash, i don't know how many companies they could buy. when you see the price they paid for rare you can only ask yourself how much they would pay for take 2...

i think that a monopoly in this sector wouldn't be strong enough, users are not tied to a console like a computer user is tied to the windows PC..
(proprietary file formats and protocols, hardware drivers not available for other OSes and/or plateforms, applications only available on a particular OS on a particular plateforms).

for example i would like to switch to linux at home (i only rely on linux at work), but i need windows for my PC gaming fix..

here at work would like to use more extensively linux as an alternative to the so costly windows desktop (sotware costs, TCO..), but it is very hard because of applications we rely on lots of proprietary software that only exist on windows..
we are evaluating openoffice under windows but in most case it's not viable because much applications are tied to microsoft office and won't work w/ openoffice.

 

[wazoo]

i
nintendo never was a monopoly

The reasons why Nintendo was a monopoly are very different from every other monopoly. They were the only console available in a time where console gaming was considered dead and everything was about micro computers shortly after the videogame crack of 1984. So they went to become a monoploly because they were the only one to trust in that market and rebuilt them from scratch.

This has nothing in common with entering a market buying or killing others competitors.

What they did once they were at 99% of market penetration was a bit questionnable, of course.

 

[Qroach]

The only competition for nintendo back then was sega with the master system. They didn't have ANY game support becuase nintendo prevented game developers from releasing games on the sega platform buy getting them to sign exclusive contracts. if you wanted to develop fo the nes, you were basically forced into only supporting it.

Both MS and nintendo have both had a monopoly at one time or the other. The only reason nintendo didn't stay where they were, was because of the screw up with sony of the Snes Playstation. it opened the door for sony.

 

[zidane1strife]

With ~$40Billion to throw around they could acquire Take2 easily and in early '04(after cancelling development on all PS2 titles) have the XBox with GTA3, GTA VC, and GTA4 packed in for $99 for starters. They could acquire Blizzard, Acclaim, Activision and EA and make all of their titles XBox exclusive and then start moving to acquire the Japanese development houses through the market.

They would only end up paying far far more than companies are actually worth, only to end up with nothing too helpful.... and a severe hit to their stock... a hit that could cause other companies to bite and chew them up...

Again every year that passes the videogame industry grows... Those biggest in the software sector of it will out profit, most any other company outhere.... including MS...

 

[BenSkywalker]

Magnum-

i'm amazed there are still fools or ignorants to deny the microsoft monopoly.. even the US DOJ recognized that.

nintendo never was a monopoly

Nintendo had a higher market share at their peak then Microsoft ever did or does. Reread that statement several times as it is a point of fact. If you consider Microsoft to be a monopoly then you must consider Nintendo to have had the same status or you are simply being dishonest with yourself. Nintendo limited the amount of titles companies could release, they forced contracts to protect their monopoly in a far more heavy handed way then MS ever did. In several instances Nintendo forced developers to ignore other platforms or not be allowed to make software for their console. Can you imagine the DoJ response if MS stopped Corel, Adobe etc from making software for Windows unless they dropped support for Linux/Mac etc? Hell, MS has been making software of their own for the Mac for years. When did Nintendo have a console and use their own resources to make software for someone else?

You are delusional if you think Nintendo has taken a high path in business ethics. I would say it is a stretch to have them as friendly as MS when they were at the peak of their power. It is one thing to enjoy their products, it is quite another to deny reality.

here at work would like to use more extensively linux as an alternative to the so costly windows desktop (sotware costs, TCO..), but it is very hard because of applications we rely on lots of proprietary software that only exist on windows..
we are evaluating openoffice under windows but in most case it's not viable because much applications are tied to microsoft office and won't work w/ openoffice.

Lower TCO running Linux w/OO over Windows w/Office for desktops....? Sounds like someone in the IT department is handing your company FUD. You want to talk about Linux as a replacement for WinXP Data Warehouse and the associated cost saving that's one thing, but Linux and OO for desktop productivity applications? Make sure productivity is factored in, unless your saving about $5K per year per workstation then you are likely to increase costs.

Zidane-

They would only end up paying far far more than companies are actually worth, only to end up with nothing too helpful.... and a severe hit to their stock... a hit that could cause other companies to bite and chew them up...

If they handled it foolishly. There are ways of chewing up publicly held companies without sending the stock price soaring, most companies simply choose to do it in a quick fashion which impacts the price significantly.

Nothing too helpful? Take2? Guess GrandTheftAuto3 and Vice City were horrendous sales flops that did nothing for the PS2....

Again every year that passes the videogame industry grows... Those biggest in the software sector of it will out profit, most any other company outhere.... including MS...

Delusional is what I would call that. MS's profits are still on a steady incline. They profit on a quarterly basis about EA's total sales for the year. On a global basis there is still a lot of potential for growth in the PC market, and MS is pushing hard for it not to mention they are already a major player in the gaming industry.

Wazoo-

So they went to become a monoploly because they were the only one to trust in that market and rebuilt them from scratch.

Sega was their, so was Atari. They did rebuild the gaming industry(regaining the confidence of retailers was the biggest problem which is why ROB was created) but not because they were the only one who tried. I don't have any problem with monopolys, but I am not some hypocrite who tries and spins one set of brutalistic business practices into something that is OK while another instance of the same is horrible.

What they did once they were at 99% of market penetration was a bit questionnable, of course.

Check the failure rate for companies that were in the gaming business back in Nintendo's prime marketshare position. They were at the very least every bit as nasty as MS. I have no problem with monopolies nor what Nintendo or Microsoft did when they were in that position.

 

[DVFtaxman]

Nintendo has ran a monopoly on the handheld video game market for the last 15 odd years!
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.
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.....btw, I have an even easier strategy for M$! Just buy SONY, mothball the videogame hardware division and then sell what's left to Matsushita! Then make Xbox2 backwards compatable with Xbox, PS and PS2!....market all wrapped up!

 

[wazoo]

Wazoo-

So they went to become a monoploly because they were the only one to trust in that market and rebuilt them from scratch.

Sega was their, so was Atari.

The SMS was launched after the NES, no ?? not sure.

They did rebuild the gaming industry(regaining the confidence of retailers was the biggest problem which is why ROB was created) but not because they were the only one who tried. I don't have any problem with monopolys, but I am not some hypocrite who tries and spins one set of brutalistic business practices into something that is OK while another instance of the same is horrible.

Neither am I. I do not care about what MS does as long it stays inside the boundaries of law, which has not been a sure thing in the past (neither for Nintendo as someone did remember).

 

[Heretic]

I'd say no just for this one reason: the anti-MS current runs strong and deep. Too deep to overcome short of buying the entire industry.

of course...

if xbox did sell so badly in europe in its beggining it was because of anti-americanism, not because of its 489 euros price tag ! (~ 489 dollars)..

if it sells so badly in japan it is because of japanese nationalism, the only explanation... otherwise titles like nezumix or wreckless would have overselled square titles, GT3....

if the baad ppl weren't so anti-MS, xbox would have overselled PS2 ! by a factor of 3 times at least....

you see i'm tired with pathetic excuses...

ok some ppl will boycott the xbox because they disapprove MS, some people will buy xbox because its a MS product and they have so much faith in MS power... but how many ? the general public don't care about being pro-MS or anti-MS.

being a new contender in a sector with well-established members like sony, nintendo, with a bulky console, with not so many great-selling franchises as exclusives (i can only remember of DOA3..).. IMO the xbox is selling rather well..

The question wasn't- can MS establish a foothold for itself but rather will they be able to dominate the console market. I gave a reason why they'll never dominate that I think most people should be able to recognize as at least somewhat valid.

ok some ppl will boycott the xbox because they disapprove MS

So you agree, the only differences between us being degree and effect. My view is, in order for MS to dominate, Sony needs to crush the trust for their products established over the last 50 years while MS has to overcome the negative sentiment they'll built over the last decade.

The public at large sees little difference between the three systems. Next gen, if things go as well as they possibly could for MS- the cell turns out to be 100% pure bullshit and by some miracle a nearly forty year old graphics architecture still has plenty of life left in it, the differences should be even less significant. Whats going to sway the anti-American/Bill Gates- Nationalistic Japanese- public at large and allow MS to dominate?

Oh that's right. Come out earlier with lots o mo-betta games

cough***DC RIP***cough

See you in about ten years when we're warming up for round three

 

[wazoo]

Microsoft has done well all things considered.

I think the shocking thing to Microsoft (probably Nintendo and Sony as well) is the success of the Grand Theft Auto games. They've sold an outrageous amount of copies.

DMA did Lemmings, another Multi Million seller. There are always been 3rd parties games that sold very well for a long time. GTA is not the best selling game of all time far from it, even discounting Nintendo past success. It is very comparable to Lemmings, Golden Eye, Street Fighter, FF7, Tetris (not a bad list )

Sure the loses are heavy, but you can't make an omlete without breaking some eggs.

but at the end, you need an omlete, not a bunch of broken eggs. They will have to recoup. Comparing to Nintendo for example, they will be at the end of the fiscal year (considering the gaming divisions) more than 1B$ behind (putting Nintendo at +500M$ profit and Xbox a -500M$ loss, conservative on both numbers).

 

[Vince]

To the point of if MS can dominate the console market, quite easily(comparitively) if they really wanted to, the bigger question is how badly do they want to?

Such Horse-shit - like communistic bullshit or something.

With ~$40Billion to throw around they could acquire Take2 easily and in early '04(after cancelling development on all PS2 titles) have the XBox with GTA3, GTA VC, and GTA4 packed in for $99 for starters.

Um, as if it was the simple. Microsoft is in such a bad position comparably speaking (ie. Sony) that it's not even funny. They're going to lose control of the living room - this is inevitable - thats the whole purpose of the XBox. Sony has not only utterly destoyed Microsoft this round, which has done nothing but increase their userbase, but are positioned to take the livingroom by storm with their cooperative work with Toshiba, Matsusita, and their open-source OS to go along with their underlying hardware.

Microsoft has... $40B in fluid assets - which is nothing compared to the sheer market penetration and name recongnition of Sony alone - nevermind their partners.

So, whats MS going to do? Out spend everyone... brilliant plan there Ben. Except just as you haven't grasped the true intentions of MS and Sony's movement into the livingroom - neither has the MS shareholder who isn't going to allow them piss away their future dividend monies on nothing but Video-Games.

They could acquire Blizzard, Acclaim, Activision and EA and make all of their titles XBox exclusive and then start moving to acquire the Japanese development houses through the market. They could gobble up nearly all of the major publishers and development houses in a fairly short amount of time if they really wanted to.

Quantum Theory also states that there's a real possibility that all the particles in my body will suddenly tunnel to your living room where I can personally remind you how ignorant you can be.

Will they kill off the other two? Possibly Sony, I can see Nintendo surviving on their own without any real 3rd party support(they have already proven it possible, while turning a profit with the N64).

God I love Ben. Hey Ben, XBox outselling PS2 yet?

Think objectivly about this. XBox is being bundled, price cut, everything imaginable to move product and it's just barely outselling the GameCube -we won't even mention the PS2.

 

[Deepak]

.....btw, I have an even easier strategy for M$! Just buy SONY, mothball the videogame hardware division and then sell what's left to Matsushita! Then make Xbox2 backwards compatable with Xbox, PS and PS2!....market all wrapped up!

That would be ideal for MS but alas reality is radically different......
SONY is bigger than MS sale/assets wise///..so no question of MS buying it...they have 40 bil doesnt mean that they can buy everything and anything.....they have other things to worry about..LINUX...SUN....

hi folks....my first post!

 

[zidane1strife]

If they handled it foolishly. There are ways of chewing up publicly held companies without sending the stock price soaring, most companies simply choose to do it in a quick fashion which impacts the price significantly.

Nothing too helpful? Take2? Guess GrandTheftAuto3 and Vice City were horrendous sales flops that did nothing for the PS2....

By 2004... I doubt GTA will remain as important as it is now. Most japanese companies will refuse(like nintendo.), and a bunch of US dev.s won't do much.

People aren't happy with windows xp registration... and hacking has now come to many of the mass... many people in the media are no longer promoting updating to newer windows versions... Linux will grow in both server, and non-server areas...

In two decades the videogames sector will more than quadruple, and with the dissapearance of solid state media, profits will soar...

Those biggest in the industry will see Billions in annual profits... That is reality not delusion...

 

[Heretic]

So, whats MS going to do? Out spend everyone... brilliant plan there Ben. Except just as you haven't grasped the true intentions of MS and Sony's movement into the livingroom - neither has the MS shareholder who isn't going to allow them piss away their future dividend monies on nothing but Video-Games.

Actually I think if MS stock holders truly understood what was at stake in this fight for the living room, as you call it, they'd fully back Bills pissing away dividends on video games. Either that or eventually start dumping shares like there was no tomorrow.

Quantum Theory also states that there's a real possibility that all the particles in my body will suddenly tunnel to your living room where I can personally remind you how ignorant you can be.

Great line. I hope you won't mind if I borrow it sometime

 

[Brimstone]

Microsoft has done well all things considered.

I think the shocking thing to Microsoft (probably Nintendo and Sony as well) is the success of the Grand Theft Auto games. They've sold an outrageous amount of copies.

DMA did Lemmings, another Multi Million seller. There are always been 3rd parties games that sold very well for a long time. GTA is not the best selling game of all time far from it, even discounting Nintendo past success. It is very comparable to Lemmings, Golden Eye, Street Fighter, FF7, Tetris (not a bad list )

Sure the loses are heavy, but you can't make an omlete without breaking some eggs.

but at the end, you need an omlete, not a bunch of broken eggs. They will have to recoup. Comparing to Nintendo for example, they will be at the end of the fiscal year (considering the gaming divisions) more than 1B$ behind (putting Nintendo at +500M$ profit and Xbox a -500M$ loss, conservative on both numbers).

My point about the shocking aspect of the GTA games (which I didn't mention) are the games content and the coralation to the overall sales numbers. GTA 3 and Vice city are incredibly violent (Mortal Kombat was violent I guess) and very adultish (you can go into the back of a car with a hooker and then shoot her afterwards to ger your money back). Some may have guessed the game would sell well, but the sales of this type of game are pretty amazing. You can't get much further from a traditional Nintendo franchise games and rack up decent sales than the GTA games.


I'm talking about just the home console market. If you remove the Game Boy sales from Nintendo overall numbers the picture you get is different. Also Microsoft is investing heavily into online play. Only over the long term will anyone know if this will pay off or not. I don't see much point in comparing Nintendo and Microsoft numbers like this anyway. Microsoft has lost money on things before with the hopes in the long run to make a profit. Cleary here Microsoft is looking very long term. Once (if) Microsoft starts genearting decent profits Nintendo and Sony will have a hard time every slowing MS down. You can't let a company like MS get serious traction. Sony has to excute its strategy on the PS 3 really well otherwise they are giving too much of an oppritunity to MS.

 

[wazoo]

My point about the shocking aspect of the GTA games (which I didn't mention) are the games content and the coralation to the overall sales numbers. GTA 3 and Vice city are incredibly violent (Mortal Kombat was violent I guess) and very adultish (you can go into the back of a car with a hooker and then shoot her afterwards to ger your money back). Some may have guessed the game would sell well, but the sales of this type of game are pretty amazing. You can't get much further from a traditional Nintendo franchise games and rack up decent sales than the GTA games.

nobody denies that there is a market for overviolent games. What are supposed to play those young guys that only enjoy the worst of the Hollywood movie productions. Are you supposed to watch a Steven Seagal/tod lundgren (or whatever) movie and then just hop in the mushroom kingdom ?? IF Someone is thinking then he is really stupid.

I don't see much point in comparing Nintendo and Microsoft numbers like this anyway.

As far as comparing the strategy, we can do that, but they are clearly targeting different market. A new xbox owner is not necessarly a lost GC owner (and vice versa). I doubt someone will balance between both lineup, they are clearly different (looking art what is heavily promoted).

Microsoft has lost money on things before with the hopes in the long run to make a profit. Cleary here Microsoft is looking very long term. Once (if) Microsoft starts genearting decent profits Nintendo and Sony will have a hard time every slowing MS down. You can't let a company like MS get serious traction. Sony has to excute its strategy on the PS 3 really well otherwise they are giving too much of an oppritunity to MS.

Nintendo is trying to become the MAC/Disney of VG and get its own indestructible niche. They can not hope better than this. Sony has not done anything wrong up to now. We'll see.

 

[Johnny Awesome]

Sony has to execute flawlessly on the PS3 or they're toast. Their other partners have to become majorly involved as well. $40 Billion vs. $2 Billion is not really a fair fight. It's probably no surprise that I agree with Ben and disagree vehemently with Vince.