Why we're the only intelligent life in our galaxy

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Just saw this article which talks about the same problem. Actually I've been thinking about a set for a science fiction where people live in a Matrix-like environment, but unlike the Matrix, they are not "forced" to live there. Their ancestors created it for entertainment and live inside. Since then the Matrix created an illusion that human being developed a inter-stella cilivization spanning over a dozen of colonies, but in reality all people live on the earth in very dense concentration. :)
 
NANOTEC said:
I don't see it as "if it's not this then it has to be that". That is a very ignorant way of looking at things. My thought process is more of "If it's not this then the possibility exist that maybe we don't understand enough to say what it is".
It's not a question of ignorance, it's a question of being rigorous in recognising what is based in science and what is pie-in-the-sky sci-fi fantasy clap-trap.

"We don't know enough" is the end of the sentence if you're thinking scientifically. Not "we don't know if so it could be this or that or the other or some fantasy I read in a sci-fi book but I can't prove either way but I want there to be life and those bastard scientists keep telling me there's no evidence but what the hell do they know they're just closed minded and if I make this up then they can't argue against it especially if I make it unobservable... Oh God I so want to believe...".

Good science doesn't allow for wishful thinking -- so yes, it really is an either/or situation.

And that was my point, it makes "predictions" aka "a guess" based on what is "observable". What about the things that can't be observed? Isn't that half the equation? Even then it's only things we can observe within out own self developed methods. Also observing is one thing, explaining is another.
No, the predictions are made based on the current best understanding of the system in question and the physical processes which we think occur in that system. We take the processes we think we know, put them together in a way we think plausible (that's the guess bit), then try to predict what we might observe. Testing the predicted observables against the actual observations tells you whether or not there's a flaw in your model. If your model fits your data, you've maybe gained some insight (your model fits the data). If your model doesn't fit, you've also gained even more insight! (ie. your model is wrong, or your physics is wrong).

If your model doesn't predict any observables then it's really highly questionable that what you're doing is science. It's closer to philosophy, or something like that. Entropy generation, certainly!

Worse still is formulating a model which proposes highly complex and unnecessary behaviour in a system which some convenient and magical unknown phenomenon conspires to hide from us totally!
 
It's not a question of ignorance, it's a question of being rigorous in recognising what is based in science and what is pie-in-the-sky sci-fi fantasy clap-trap.

"We don't know enough" is the end of the sentence if you're thinking scientifically. Not "we don't know if so it could be this or that or the other or some fantasy I read in a sci-fi book but I can't prove either way but I want there to be life and those bastard scientists keep telling me there's no evidence but what the hell do they know they're just closed minded and if I make this up then they can't argue against it especially if I make it unobservable... Oh God I so want to believe...".


So you're basically making an assumption about why I believe what I believe? As I said many posts ago it has been shown that science fiction eventually ends up turning into reality as time progresses. Let's look at a previous "pie-in-the-sky" examples such as cloning. Do you think cloning would've been conceived or accepted in say the year 1100? Of course not it would've been a pie in the sky clap-trap idea.

Good science doesn't allow for wishful thinking -- so yes, it really is an either/or situation.

And who is wishing? What are they wishing for? The concept of science in itself has flaws. One of the fundimental flaws is what can be observed. Back in the 1100s scientist couldn't observe a lot of things. Doesn't mean those things stopped existing.

No, the predictions are made based on the current best understanding of the system in question and the physical processes which occur in that system. We take the processes we think we know, put them together in a way we think plausible (that's the guess bit), then try to predict what we might observe. Testing the predicted observables against the actual observations tells you whether or not there's a flaw in your model. If your model fits your data, you've maybe gained some insight (your model fits the data). If your model doesn't fit, you've also gained even more insight! (ie. your model is wrong, or your physics is wrong).

Again you assume we can see everything. Sorry we can't see everything. Wishful thinking won't help us see everything either.

If your model doesn't predict any observables then it's really highly questionable that what you're doing is science. It's closer to philosophy, or something like that. Entropy generation, certainly!

Whether something is science or not is irrlevent. What matters is if the idea is reasonable and cannot be proven to be unreasonable.

Worse still is formulating a model which proposes highly complex and unnecessary behaviour in a system which some convenient and magical unknown phenomenon conspires to hide from us totally!

Like I said, back in the 1100s scientist couldn't see certain things we can see today. Does this mean some magical phenomenon was hiding it from them? Wouldn't it be interesting if sometime in the future scientists discover remnants from another intelligent species using observation tools and methods developed in the future?;)
 
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NANOTEC said:
Let's look at a previous "pie-in-the-sky" examples such as cloning. Do you think cloning would've been conceived or accepted in say the year 1100? Of course not it would've been a pie in the sky clap-trap idea.
Your statement about sci-fi coming true is an over-statement IMO -- it depends largely on what genre you're talking about.

Some sci-fi writers choose to write about stuff which is plausible and is based in not-too-far-off technology. Surprise surprise their "predictions" magically come true. Other writers throw all plausible physics out the window and choose to write about faster-than-light travel, teleportation, telepathy, telekinesis, blah blah blah. It's stretching things a bit to predict that because Mr X "invented" the communications satellite, or Mr Y "invented" cloning and they've come true, that by extension anything which comes out of the fevered imagination of Mr Z will also come true.

The Universe has its own rules that it plays by. Me imagining some random stuff which breaks those rules and publishing under the heading "Science Fiction" doesn't mean that it'll come true eventually.

The concept of science in itself has flaws. One of the fundimental flaws is what can be observed. Back in the 1100s scientist couldn't observe a lot of things. Doesn't mean those things stopped existing.
Indeed. That's how science advances.

Again you assume we can see everything. Sorry we can't see everything. Wishful thinking won't help us see everything either.
I'm not assuming that at all. What I'm saying is that if you can't observe something (directly or indirectly) then you have a hard time saying anything about it using the scientific method.

If you choose to abandon the scientific method, then fine, so be it. But be honest about it. Once you do so there's no point in trying to have a logical conversation about the possibility of this versus the possibility of that -- all things become equally plausible because there's no mechanism for testing which of a number of competing hypotheses are closest to The Truth(TM).

Whether something is science or not is irrlevent. What matters is if the idea is reasonable and cannot be proven to be unreasonable.
Reasonable in what sense? Who is doing the judging? What are the requirements for something to be "reasonable"?

Idea: Dark matter is made of invisible cheese.
- reasonable? Yes, I think it is, I'm the one judging, so it must be reasonable.
- can you prove that to be unreasonable? Not to me you can't!

Good, that's dark matter explained, what's next..?!

Like I said, back in the 1100s scientist couldn't see certain things we can see today. Does this mean some magical phenomenon was hiding it from them? Wouldn't it be interesting if sometime in the future scientists discover remnants from another intelligent species?;)
That's not the point I'm getting at. What I'm getting at is that "models" which are deliberately formulated in such a fashion as to have no observables are not good scientific models. They're fine for science fiction books, but they're not fine for science. At best they're interesting thought experiements, but they tell you nothing about the real world.
 
DemoCoder said:
This line of argumentation leads no where. Any arguments about ETIs must procede from some assumptions as to their behavior based on assumed global invariants. Consider Marvin Minsky's argument for why we would be able to communicate with ETIs You could argue that ETIs could simply be inscrutable, speak languages simply beyond the Chomsky hierarchy, with no way to share concepts at ALL. But it's a handwave. The example of Minsky is to show how certain ideas may be universal if any species needs to survive and become a space faring civilization.

Democoder the problem I have with your line of reasoning can be best seen in the paragraph above. You full well acknowledge that there are possibilities for life and intelligence outside of our present scope of understanding, yet in the same breath you dismiss any mention of those as 'hand waving.' Should the possibility not be on the record? I agree that any argument of such will not lead anywhere if such is allowed, but if such is not allowed, then the conclusions reached must carry the caveat of 'within our present scope of understanding...'

For this particular argument, I don't have a high confidence in that result in and of itself, simply because though I can't know how much we don't know scientifically at this point, on a cosmic scale I suspect it is still quite a bit.

Again if this thread were started by people saying 'chances of alien life are high or likely,' then I agree that the onus would be on the... believers?... to defend their position. But the thread/debate was instead started by those positing the theory that indeed it must be rare. Now again, if the caveat that it must be rare 'within our present scope of understanding' were a clear and integral part of that statement, rather than initially just a broad stroke, then I think a lot of us arguing against it would not be.

Hell I don't even consider myself to be arguing against these theories, so much as arguing for acknowledgement of that caveat.

There are two arguments going on here I feel, and they are almost completely disjointed from one another.

On one side we have individuals such as yourself who are upset by what they perceive to be the 'fast and loose' arguments used to defend or attack positions.

On the other side we have individuals who are simply uncomfortable with such strong declarative statements being made on subjects on which presently humanity's ignorance likely still far exceeds our knowledge.

There may be other 'positions' as well among the posters here, but I'm only concerned with those two at the present time.
 
Ok. To answer the objections raised mostly by DemoCoder, let's take the scientific view.

For starters, interstellar distances being what they are, and the unlikeliness of the interstellar void being a place where life that developed on planets could live unsupported, it's very hard to reason against the need for remote automation.

Automatic machinery can be totally artificial, in which case a digital system and the use of solid-state machines is undeniably the most robust way in which that would evolve, although things might change drastically when you hit the quantum tunneling barrier, whatever building blocks you use.

Another way to develop automatic machinery is biological, and this is more tricky, as it will be based on the biology of the lifeforms who design it, and we have no idea how that biology would look like. In that case I completely agree with Demo: although it's unknown how common life by itself is (we only have a single example, after all), it's very improbable that it would evolve into humans. No matter that it did, because it could have very well been anything else within very wide boundaries. And those automations will still pass through the digital stage, when you need to manipulate large masses or large amounts of energy.

But no matter what, if you want to survive space, you need very robust, remote machinery, that is at the least semi-sentient by itself. Computers and their likes. There is no way around that. It might be build by biological means, but that makes no difference.

And no matter what, space travel is not for lifeforms. It's a job for digital machines, or their quantum offspring. They will colonize the galaxy if anything/anyone will, not biological lifeforms. Sure, they might be send out to reform planets into something habitable by their creators, but even if they stick strictly to that, most of their efforts would consist of harvesting resources and building the machinery needed. In other words: most of their civilization would consist of things and habitats for machines, not biological life.

And in the end (like in the article pcchen linked), if there is an ungoing expansion, it will be machines that conquer the Galaxy, not biological lifeforms. And they would value different things and environments: they would probably like smaller planets without water or atmosphere, with lots of metals and close to an abundant source of fusionable materials and lots of energy. Like, most moons around gas giants, or dense planets close to the local star.

And so, indirectly, we can solve Fermi's paradox by simply stating that there is nothing here on Earth of interest to them, and that we haven't got the means to spot them unless they do very spectacular things, like blowing up a moon, or creating gigantic structures in our own solar system.

Or clear the Earth away to make room for a new hyperspace bypass, of course. ;)
 
DiGuru said:

If you think about it humans are just molecular machines.;)

Chalnoth said:
Well, while I think the debater against ID was unecessarily antagonistic, particularly early-on, the debater for ID refused to answer basically any of the questions posed. There is no debate: it is dogma on the ID side.

Some of the questions were irrelevent to the debate so of course there was no need to answer them.
 
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pcchen said:
Just saw this article which talks about the same problem. Actually I've been thinking about a set for a science fiction where people live in a Matrix-like environment, but unlike the Matrix, they are not "forced" to live there. Their ancestors created it for entertainment and live inside. Since then the Matrix created an illusion that human being developed a inter-stella cilivization spanning over a dozen of colonies, but in reality all people live on the earth in very dense concentration. :)

Not really a new idea. People were discussing this years ago. It's a variation on my "they all become addicted to bowling" idea posted earlier, except it makes a strong scientific argument for why the addiction would be likely. My only criticism would be that despite a society of people addicted to the b00b tube, we still remain capable of producing amazing inventions year after year. Apparently, geeks and entrepreneurs serve as guardians against full on hedonism. :)
 
NANOTEC said:
If you think about it humans are just molecular machines.;)
Absolutely. But see it like this: if there are multiple lifeforms in this galaxy that build automated machinery, and they all use their own variant, it increases the chances of artificial, digital machinery (or their quantum offspring) being the dominant lifeform in this galaxy by a large amount. As any one of them could develop that, while the biological ones are all unique.

:D
 
DemoCoder said:
Not really a new idea. People were discussing this years ago. It's a variation on my "they all become addicted to bowling" idea posted earlier, except it makes a strong scientific argument for why the addiction would be likely. My only criticism would be that despite a society of people addicted to the b00b tube, we still remain capable of producing amazing inventions year after year. Apparently, geeks and entrepreneurs serve as guardians against full on hedonism. :)
Absolutely. But what kind of things do they invent? ;)
 
NANOTEC said:
A few hundread years ago "science" thought other planets revolved around the earth. :LOL: Science is just a tool create by us, it's not a solution or an answer to everything and it has been wrong many many times. This guy was laughing too.

"Science" a few hundred years ago was a pseudonym for faith, in large part.
 
NANOTEC said:
And that was my point, it makes "predictions" aka "a guess" based on what is "observable". What about the things that can't be observed? Isn't that half the equation? Even then it's only things we can observe within out own self developed methods. Also observing is one thing, explaining is another.

If something can't be observed in principle, then it is unscientific. If it can't be observed for technical reasons (your particle accelerator ain't strong enough, your telescope isn't good enough), it becomes a gray area with two possibilities. 1) observation is technically feasible and within reasonable time horizons 2) observation is technically not feasible.

If observation is technically feasible, we may permit the theory, and await future tests. For example, Einstein's General Theory of Relativity made many predictions, only some were immediately testable, while others still haven't been tested directly (graviation waves via LIGO. Yes, they have been 'detected' indirectly via decaying orbits of binary stars)

But it may be that observation is technically infeasible on any reasonable timescale. For example, if you have to build a linear particle accelerator the size of a galaxy (to test some Grand Unified Theories) or destroy a star, or wait 10 billion years, then the theory is in a gray area of science, that many people would say is unscientific.

Today, Quantum Gravity theories are criticized by many as perhaps untestable even if one could come up with one that is consistent with all known predictions. Because such theories make additional predictions on energy, time, and space scales that are for all practical purposes, inaccessible to us. So they sit half-way between physical science and pure mathematics.

Science is about building models. Building models is the best you can possibly do. It's what our brains do. We process perceptions and build an internal model based on those perceptions used for future predictions. But the Map is not the Territory. A description of something is not necessary what something *IS*. The difference between science and our "folk" intuition of the world, is that given any two human beings X and Y, they may have different ideas of the meanings of various words, and they are a fallible.

So it is not sufficient for person X to propose a theory, do the experiment, and tell Y what happened. We invented two tools to deal with this: 1) mathematics, so that we may communicate *precisely* what it is we are talking about using a shared unambiguous language and 2) the requirement for reproducibility.

Mathematics insures that X can communicate to Y exactly what he was thinking in his mind with no loss of information. And reproducibility builds confidence by letting person Y "re-execute" X's mathematical model, retrace the steps of his experiments (or create new experiments) to check X's mathematical model.

That in essense, is science, and without it, we are shit up the creek. We invented the written word, because "oral history" resulted in in "copying errors" of information, where facts and events are distorted as they are transmitted. And we invented mathematics, because descriptions of phenomena written using words are too error prone, since words mean different things to different people. And we invented rational criticism: peer review of the reproducible, because people make mistakes.

Now, if you want to fall back on oral accounts and little fictional stories as explanatory models, fine. But Western society in general has decided to have less overall confidence in such methods. They cannot be distinguished between several alternate stories due to the inherent inability to rule them out *in principle*

As for explanation, one can only interpret what scientific models say, one can't "prove" an explanation. Quantum Mechanics has half a dozen or more "explanations" and none of them can be proven to "more correct" than the other. They all give exactly the same answers and predictions, so it comes down to aesthetics.
 
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DiGuru said:
Absolutely. But what kind of things do they invent? ;)

Entertainment is a small portion of what they invent. If one looks at what has been produced just in medicine in the last decade, the answer is obvious. Somehow, despite a world of increasingly obese TV (and now Internet) couch potatoes, progress leaps forward.

Even in the service of Entertainment, we may invent new biotech and nanotech technologies. Technologies have externalities, so even though nanotech may be one day invented to please couch potatoes, it may also be used for space as well.

Nanotechnology in the limit, allows even single individuals to possess the manufacturing power that only nations hold today, so it is not inconceivable that on such an "Entertainment World" 99.999999999999999% of the world stays behind to play games or watch TV. But all it takes is a small group of mutant individuals who for some dumb reason won't be satisfied to watch TV, to launch some robotic space probes.

BTW, space may be the ultimate entertainment medium too. Think "Weightless Big Brother". "Survivor: On Mars", "The Apprentice: 'for your reward, we are flying you to the Moon to have lunch with Governor Tarkin of Moon Base Alpha"
 
(all quotes from the debate I've paraphrased)
NANOTEC said:
Some of the questions were irrelevent to the debate so of course there was no need to answer them.
What, you don't think the question, "What is the one piece of evidence that could absolutely disprove your whole idea?" was relevant?

The ID debater flatly refused to answer the question the first time it was posed.

The second time it was posed, it answered with a statement similar to:
"If somebody could prove that life could have arrived accidentally, then I will resign my position."

Later in the debate, the debater against ID says:
"I believe that within a decade we will have produced artificial life. ... What scientists will do is they will produce the conditions that existed in the young Earth. If they do this, and create life, will that state that life could possibly have arisen accidentally?"

To which the ID debater answers "No."

Like I said, this is nothing more than dogma on the ID side.

Edit: Changed "universe" to "young Earth", as the former just makes no sense
 
DiGuru said:
Absolutely. But see it like this: if there are multiple lifeforms in this galaxy that build automated machinery, and they all use their own variant, it increases the chances of artificial, digital machinery (or their quantum offspring) being the dominant lifeform in this galaxy by a large amount. As any one of them could develop that, while the biological ones are all unique.

Current biological machines (life on earth) are dependent on an energy process which would be unsustainable in harsh environments of space. Life based on an artificial substrate, whose information storage can be copied and backed up and transmitted, would be much more robust over eons. Thus it is most likely that interstellar colonists are artificial lifeforms.

We humans won't settle the Galaxy, our *children* will (our robot children). I disagree that their values will be completely divorced from humanity. For sure, they will be different, because non-scarcity and immortality will evolve away many of the evolutionary psychological traits we have developed. However, they will most likely inherent what is best in humanity, our traits which are not dependent on competition for scarce resources in a valley or village. They will be our children, and we will impart to them (by design) many of our values. They may eventually evolve out of it, or reprogram themselves, but I don't think they would neccessarily have completely 'alien' values. They may in fact have values we consider saintly, as such machines may lack alot of the selfishness we have. Such machines may not care about self sacrifice due to immortality, and may not covet other's resources due to non-scarcity. They may very well be machines of pure love.

Would they care about us, or regard us as raw resources to be consumed? That would assume that such machines would need resources so bad that they would override any consideration of *what* resources they consume (or who), but with an abundance of time and power, would they need to be greedy? One would then have to assume the 'anthill' scenario where they eventually don't even consider on their plane of existence. But do non-abusive human beings hurt animals on purpose, or by accident? I don't go around kicking over anthills. I do it by accident, but I actually feel sorry for the ants sometimes watching them rebuild a destroyed house. We are then left with the idea that hyperintelligent beings would fsck us over by accident, not realizing they are stepping on us. I also tend towards this being unlikely.

Thus, it is conceivable that artificial nearly timeless lifeforms colonizing the galaxy might have some respect for lower life forms.
 
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NANOTEC said:
Where did I say it was started by other life forms?

You suggested it.

All I said was that science has yet to prove life came to be as a result of random natural events.

Give us an example of a non-random natural event.


200 billion can be a large number or a small number depending on what you use as the basis for your argument. My basis is "what we don't know".

If we "don't know" anything, than whether it's 10, 10 billion, 100 billion, or a trillion, we don't know what the number means either. You're weaseling now.

The numbers may/may not mean anything unless you can prove life was born from a random sequence of natural events. Can you prove this? No.

Proof can only be attained in a closed system via deduction. You can't prove anything in science. Science is based on inductive reasoning. Inductive reasoning can't achieve 100% certainly when dealing with the real world. As I said, you can't even prove that the Sun will rise tommorow. How many times does this have to be explained to you?

The fact that you don't "get it" shows that you don't understand rational thinking. It's the same flawed thinking that makes Intelligent Design debaters look like dopes.


I define likely as at least one intelligent species exist in our own galaxy. I don't make any claims to their timeframe of existence or their capabilities.

Well, we know there is one: Humans on the Earth. Perhaps you meant two? Why not three? How do you arrive at the idea that the Earth implies that one other intelligent species MUST exist? (your definition of likely)

Otherwise, what is it? 50% 25%?


It can't be proven. One can only disprove a theory, one can never prove a theory.
Well then you cannot say it is accurate or not. It's just an arbitrary idea, built up from things that "make sense" to us as a human race.

No theory can be proven. Whether a theory is accurate or not is a different issue. Quantum Electrodynamics is an extremely accurate theory. It has agreed with experiment to amazing levels of precision. Relativity is so accurate that we can build amazing things like the Global Positioning System. Are they proven? No. We can say whether something is accurate, we just can't say it is proven.

Again, it would help if you went and got a book on the basics of the philosophy of science.


Well the irony here is that I'm not a religious person and follow no religion. I'm more of a science guy, but I'm not so naive to believe that science can explain everything or that our limited use for science can either.

A science guy who doesn't understand science and bashes it. Wonderful. The religious people will still love you.


Maybe someday science can explain how life actually came to be on earth, but to restrict it to some sequence of random natural events with no scientific basis

Well, your attacks on evolution are becoming tired. Science already did a good job of explaining how single cells came to become animals. The people who don't believe in cellular evolution today are frankly loons. Now, Abiogenesis. People have a pretty good idea of some of the components of Abiogenesis and there is certainly a scientific basis for it, for we can observe many organic precursor molecules arising spontaneously today.

When a serious Abiogensis theory is eventually created, it will be testable, as in, we'll be able to create life in the laboratory and show it arising out of nothing. It may be done with real chemicals, or it may be done on a supercomputer like Blue Gene's great granddaughter.

This thread is frankly be subverted but anti-evolutionary nonsense now.
 
DemoCoder said:
No theory can be proven. Whether a theory is accurate or not is a different issue. Quantum Electrodynamics is an extremely accurate theory. It has agreed with experiment to amazing levels of precision. Relativity is so accurate that we can build amazing things like the Global Positioning System. Are they proven? No. We can say whether something is accurate, we just can't say it is proven.
More precisely, the two theories are incompatible, and one or the other, if not both, must be incorrect on some level.

This doesn't mean they're not useful, of course: the calculations which one can do are accurate enough within their resective realms of applicability that they will be useful theories a long time from now, even after we've found new, more exact theories. The theories are probably still quite a bit more accurate than the degree of precision to which they've been proven to date (note: you can't prove something to be absolutely true, but if you accept as an axiom that physical laws are immutable, you can prove something to be true within some degree of precision).

When a serious Abiogensis theory is eventually created, it will be testable, as in, we'll be able to create life in the laboratory and show it arising out of nothing. It may be done with real chemicals, or it may be done on a supercomputer like Blue Gene's great granddaughter.
Somewhat technical point, but it is rather doubtful that we'll be capable of the computing precision and speed required for such a prediction before it can be done in a lab.
 
DemoCoder said:
Entertainment is a small portion of what they invent. If one looks at what has been produced just in medicine in the last decade, the answer is obvious. Somehow, despite a world of increasingly obese TV (and now Internet) couch potatoes, progress leaps forward.

Even in the service of Entertainment, we may invent new biotech and nanotech technologies. Technologies have externalities, so even though nanotech may be one day invented to please couch potatoes, it may also be used for space as well.

Nanotechnology in the limit, allows even single individuals to possess the manufacturing power that only nations hold today, so it is not inconceivable that on such an "Entertainment World" 99.999999999999999% of the world stays behind to play games or watch TV. But all it takes is a small group of mutant individuals who for some dumb reason won't be satisfied to watch TV, to launch some robotic space probes.

BTW, space may be the ultimate entertainment medium too. Think "Weightless Big Brother". "Survivor: On Mars", "The Apprentice: 'for your reward, we are flying you to the Moon to have lunch with Governor Tarkin of Moon Base Alpha"
Yes, I agree. But apart from entertainment, development falls broadly into life science or automation nowadays. Live better and longer, and have more machinery around to do the tedious tasks. The first benefits us humans directly, albeit long term as a species. But it won't allow us to make the large "jump" required by space travel, other than in generation ships. Suspended animation isn't even on the charts yet.

And the other part is what I'm talking about. Robotics in all it's forms.
 
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